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Historian Stephen Kotkin: On USA vs China power competition, American advantages, and more (1/3) 

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27 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 246   
@AsiaObserver
@AsiaObserver 2 месяца назад
What do you think of Professor Kotkin's analysis? Do you agree or disagree? (Please be specific)
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
I do hate having to thump it into Kotkins brainbox CHINA IS NOT THE USSR. CHINA IS NOT RUSSIA. We don't have to accomodate a thing. I have written fairly extensively about this.
@jamesburke3803
@jamesburke3803 2 месяца назад
Outstanding presentation by Professor Kotkin. Terrible camerawork: he's pointing to things on the screen, the camera is on him!
@ArmenianBishop
@ArmenianBishop 2 месяца назад
Let me put it this way: NonWestern Autocratic Regimes are repressive and oppressive, and in some cases even powered by genocidal activities (ie despotic Azerbaijan pursuing a genocide project). The People's Republic of China is certainly among that force of autocratic despotism and criminal behavior. We've seen that before, in the 20th Century. And, China has internalized economic problems, even a problem with unemployment.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
@@ArmenianBishop Yes, this is why China went from a gdp of around 1000 USD per capita to a gdp of around 10,000 usd per capita (this is in real terms and is frankly conservative). China's a miracle and if you did not have the CCP just take a good hard look at what it replaced: thoroughly corrupt warlords, constant civil war, recurrent famine. You seem to imagine democracies incapable of genocide, and I would like to ask some Red Indians in what is now called the USA about that but it's not so easy since around 90% of them died off, I guess they must have been racially inferior after all. I guess I should remind you of where China got all that opium from? It's not like they wanted it, they even had a couple wars about that, lost both of course, racial inferiors. Your imagined problems likely are not your actual problems, and your imagined solutions are even less likely correct since you are wrong about some really obvious fundamental facts. IF China were the horrible dictatorship you imagine it to be I would be working to do to China exactly what I am doing to Russia.
@madsam0320
@madsam0320 2 месяца назад
China has ports all over the world, the US has naval bases all over the world. That speaks a lot, China is doing trades with all countries, the US is fighting wars all over the world, regime change, imposing their will against any country that do not submit to them, even democratic countries. Iran used to have democracy before the Shah, CIA toppled the government and brought in a puppet dictator, like in Chile. If China is so authoritarian, the government must be very unpopular, but international polls put president Xi approval ratings 3x of all g7 leaders.
@RealityCheck6969
@RealityCheck6969 2 месяца назад
The US is still bleeding heavy industrial and manufacturing jobs only now they move to Mexico and other countries tries instead of China. That shows you that the problem is still not solved.
@exu7325
@exu7325 2 месяца назад
You can't have both global dollar dominance and manufacturing jobs, it's just that simple.
@folag
@folag 2 месяца назад
The so-called transfer of manufacture to places like Mexico is a sham. Those are mere final assembly operations intended to duck US import restrictions.
@folag
@folag 2 месяца назад
"Rebuild the US 350 ship armada"? How? The US has virtually no shipbuilding capacity left. China accounts for a lot of shipbuilding now, with Japan and Korea accounting for the rest.
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
@@exu7325 Tell that to Chinese & Russian, how are their Global Currency doing & is any chance they would stop manufacturing for a month. Chinese manufacture in Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Cuba.. not to mention Africa, ASEAN, Middle East & etc. USA issue is lack of Energy, Raw Material & Educated Labor
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
@@exu7325 USA issue of global $$$ dollar dominance is SANCTION(s) & thief. Trust of the Dollar is gone.
@tdavani
@tdavani 2 месяца назад
This gentleman only discusses China against international law, doesn't say anything about what us has done against international laws and all the coups it has done all over the world and corruption it has created in many other countries. Backing many killings of women and children in South East Asia. Empires have done that before and US did also as large empire. China hasn't done that compare to US. Chinese government is not transparent but neither is the actions of CIA all over the world.
@GThagon
@GThagon 2 месяца назад
The videographer needs to show the Charts more. There's more interest to what the speaker is talking about than us seeing the speaker. This video is frustrating.
@dylanthomas12321
@dylanthomas12321 Месяц назад
They do this all the time. Videographers left to their own devices focus on pictures and colors. The need a producer and director who understand content, narrative, storytelling. It's so frustrating.
@jimcameron9848
@jimcameron9848 Месяц назад
I agree. I paused the video and took a screenshot... not great, but not terrible.
@LetsLearnEconomic
@LetsLearnEconomic 2 месяца назад
The United Nations says Taiwan is part of China. Also, the best thing America can do is leave other countries alone and work on itself while living up the UN Charter. How about that?
@uzisilber
@uzisilber 2 месяца назад
The UN is an amoral cesspool dominated by dictatorships. Its opinion matters as much as my neighbor’s labradoodle.
@grahamflower6202
@grahamflower6202 2 месяца назад
Gee that would be fine if the USA was not critically dependent upon Taiwan. They make 90% of the most advanced chips and 50% of all chips there. A China takeover with either the destruction of chip fabrication or an embargo could easily create a depression in the West. The historian is right we are blind to the danger.
@mebsrea
@mebsrea 2 месяца назад
There is no circumstance *ever* in which a vibrant democracy should be subjected to a totalitarian dictatorship.
@madsam0320
@madsam0320 2 месяца назад
Not just the United Nation, even the United States in the agreement during normalising relationship half a century ago said Taiwan is part of China, and have not been changed since. Even Taiwan, or Republic of China, officially, states that Taiwan is a province of China in their constitution.
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
Thats Bad!
@isooo8175
@isooo8175 2 месяца назад
Who gave the Spratly Islands to RoC after WW2? If my memory is not mistaken, it was the USA who gave islands between Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines to China after Japan lost them. RoC lost mainland and now the USA is against China in the region. If the USA did not create this situation, China would not have any claims in South China Sea.
@jessegpresley
@jessegpresley 2 месяца назад
They would just invent thtm6, like the Senkaku Islands.
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle Месяц назад
I guess you are right because by then the Chinese government was KMT, a close friend of US.
@zeissiez
@zeissiez 22 дня назад
Same with the border dispute w India, the British created that.
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle 22 дня назад
@@isooo8175 same old Anglo Saxons trick: Divide and Rule (or Conquer, or Quit…)
@eegxixwi-gvikoi
@eegxixwi-gvikoi 7 дней назад
Everything's either the US or British fault, China's actions aren't China's actions? The problem is the CCP and neo-imperialism.
@autumn-mist711
@autumn-mist711 2 месяца назад
After end of WW2 in 1945, it was stated in the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations “that the armed forces of the Republic of China government at Nanjing accepted the surrender of the Japanese garrisons in Taiwan, including the Paracel and Spratly Islands.” “Nanjing then declared that both Paracel and Spratly Islands archipelagos to be part of Guangdong Province”. US was the main participant of the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations and the leading superpower after WW2. The Declaration also stipulated that Japan must returned all occupied territories including Taiwan and Diaoyu Islands to China. Another fact to support China's sovereignty claim over a large swath of the South China Sea is that old atlases such as Philips Maps and Atlases published in the UK clearly indicates that Spratly and Paracel Islands are Chinese territories with the word (China) in parenthesis.
@oglordbrandon
@oglordbrandon 2 месяца назад
Republic of china, not CCP
@ADobbin1
@ADobbin1 2 месяца назад
The republic of China became Taiwan. So by your argument those islands belong to Taiwan not communist china. Communist china or the Peoples republic of China is a rebellious state and is not the legitimate government of china. Taiwan is.
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle Месяц назад
@@oglordbrandon That's why China insists on one-China policy so that no country is allowed to take advantage of that confusion.
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle Месяц назад
Thanks for the information.
@isooo8175
@isooo8175 2 месяца назад
Kotkin has an empathy problem. If he criticizes American aggression against many nations, I might take his criticism of Russia and China seriously. If you don’t have a problem with invading Iraq just to control oil market you are evil Stuff he criticizes about Russia and China are very innocent compared to what USA does all around the world.
@jessegpresley
@jessegpresley 2 месяца назад
Why does NATO exist? What murderous despot is ruling over Taiwan?
@thesilkpainter
@thesilkpainter 2 месяца назад
Kotkin in American. Obviously, he is partisan. You think Xi is different? Mind you, when you listen to his lectures, he bashes US decision making many many times and points out that the US should have had more restraints put upon it to respect the rules as the most powerful nation on earth.
@MrX-wd8cm
@MrX-wd8cm Месяц назад
@@thesilkpainter Xi is the premier of China , Kodkin is an academic, world of difference, Einstein.
@aghassimkrtchyan6323
@aghassimkrtchyan6323 Месяц назад
He kind of said. A great disciplined power that does only minor transgressions. I guess he said that in anticipation of this criticism ))
@waichui2988
@waichui2988 2 месяца назад
You need to differentiate well being vs power. From the viewpoint of human well-being, the last forty years has been a great success. But the political class thinks in terms of power, a zero sum game. Obviously a lot of people in the West see a more prosperous but less powerful life as a problem. The ability to push others around and tell them what to do is more important than economic well being.
@huxx8888
@huxx8888 2 месяца назад
You mean invading other countries? Killing millions of Iraq and Afghans people?
@thesilkpainter
@thesilkpainter 2 месяца назад
I am not sure about that. I live in Europe and frankly, I was quite happy to see Europe moving away from colonialism, trying to get on with our neighbours, possibly reducing or reshaping NATO... all of these were possibilities. And I was in a majority seeing it like that. Putin has ruined that, in my opinion. Now we'll start armoent again. Shame. Additionally with fear comes paranoia and the feeling that Xi actually encouraged Putin in his grievances towards NATO and the West is something that seems very logical.
@raulbalbuena605
@raulbalbuena605 2 месяца назад
There was a substantial portion, maybe 70%, of the presentation where the charts weren't being captured by the camera which was focusing solely on Dr. Kotkin. Is there a way to access the presentation charts? They are needed to fully understand what the speaker is trying to tell us. Thanks
@kentalanlee
@kentalanlee 2 месяца назад
There is no such thing as 'the end of the world'. This is simply catastrophizing. It is a competition between human organizational systems. Authoritarian vs democratic. And authoritarianism is destined to fail ultimately. The acceleration of information access means it's increasingly impossible to manage large groups via autocratic means. Naw... this ain't it Kotkin.
@arkyark8
@arkyark8 Месяц назад
Who is democratic? Surely you don't believe America is actually democratic do you?
@kentalanlee
@kentalanlee Месяц назад
@@arkyark8 Democracy is never perfect. Tell me which country is MORE democratic then? Let's see you defend your champion.
@davidkerr4148
@davidkerr4148 2 месяца назад
The USA still sees China as trying to catch up to them economically,when in actual fact China is so far ahead by many measures that the US will never catch up.US infrastructure is falling apart,wheras China leads the world.The wellbeing of the average Chinese citizen is streets ahead of the US.The PRC government is for the people,as opposed to the US plutocracy being for the top 2%.The PRC has no offshore military bases(Spratly Islands excepted)as opposed to US 800+ bases.The PRC harms no other country,while USA has a long list of aggression and failure,causing untold millions of deaths.The current problems of Israel(the 4th Reich, thanks to USA)Ukraine and Iran all have the US as the root cause.If the US was to devote what they spend on the military to the betterment of its citizens,the US and the world would be a better place.
@garypowell1540
@garypowell1540 2 месяца назад
rubbish
@davidkerr4148
@davidkerr4148 2 месяца назад
@@garypowell1540 Based on what,other than US imagined superiority.
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle Месяц назад
@@garypowell1540 what rubbish? Kotkin?
@Lee-Van-Cle
@Lee-Van-Cle Месяц назад
Thanks for the info. Kotkin don't tell us about that.
@ADobbin1
@ADobbin1 2 месяца назад
Instead of panic, how about we assume our opponents aren't stupid or suicidal!
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
1. "Russia" is NOT an ancient civilization. 2. Russia is NOT a spectacular civilization. Alcoholism, domestic violence, theivery, murder, organized crime, and Orthodoxy trying to inculcate ancient Greek culture is the "spectacular" civilization. I have omitted pograms, purges, torture chambers. "Russia" is not even a thousand years old. I speak Russian and Chinese fluently. China is ancient and spectacular though Chinese history is marred by frequent famines and civil wars their reaction was not curl up in a bottle of vodka. China is not Russia.
@davrelltien7416
@davrelltien7416 2 месяца назад
Russian culture produced essential musical and literary treasures. The symphony and novel were developmentally impacted by Russia.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
@@davrelltien7416 Sure you have African Pushkin and various German composers who speak Russian and composed great symphonies. Just don't bother convincing us that's organic to the Mongols' greatest victims, the Russians. Russian literature is turgid, dense, and basically a cope for it's horrible culture. I don't regard Russian literature as great, and I do speak and read Russian fluently. It would be funny if it weren't so sad really sums up the wasteland that is Russia.
@victormayomi6223
@victormayomi6223 2 месяца назад
Why not travel down to Russia to confirm your lies about the country?
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
@@victormayomi6223 Why, as a matter of fact I Do speak Russian fluently and did livein Moscow for a year. Russia is a mafia state. Great example you make of projection, which is the moscow mafia's favorite tool, accuse others of what you are doing. What's it like to watch your empire of lies, murder, fraud, and theft collapse about your ears Again?
@IlGattoCheFuma
@IlGattoCheFuma 2 месяца назад
@asiaobserver can you upload a full version as well? Please dude...
@ruidmitrix
@ruidmitrix 2 месяца назад
The end of your world? Try convincing the other world to accept you. Life's tough and everyone needs to mature.
@masterlee4415
@masterlee4415 24 дня назад
If you have a good understanding of Chinese history, colonising others is not in their DNA. In the 15th century, Admiral Zheng He made seven voyages. His fleet of 32 ships and 19,000 men went as far as Madagascar. He visited Melaka and many countries along the way. Solely for trade. The Chinese did not claim any of the countries they visited as theirs. However, when the Portuguese, the Dutch and the British came, they claimed melaka for their countries. Why is the west keep harping that China is expansionist? Didn't the US seize Hawaii, ousting the Monarchy and passed a law in Congress to make Hawaii a US state?
@david3549tw
@david3549tw 2 месяца назад
The combined GDP of the E7 countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) would be 3-4 times that of the G7 countries by 2050.
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
Keep dreaming, for RIGHT NOW, the BRICS+ members had surpass G7 in 2023 and with the additional 5 New member of BRICS+, it has 2 times surpass G7 in 2024 alone. BRICS+ are not looking back....
@zz3410
@zz3410 2 месяца назад
Look at where people are immigrating towards. It’s not just GDP, it’s health, pollution, social safety net, education, medical facilities and open, civil societies, social mobility, protection by the rule of law, inequality, quality of life. GDP is easily manipulated. Companies that fail isn’t included in the calculation and it doesn’t mean the people benefit from the wealth. It could just go to stakeholders and the state.
@jeffreykalb9752
@jeffreykalb9752 2 месяца назад
Actually, China's economy is currently contracting at a rate of 4% per year. China, according to analysis of electrical usage and other material measures, has an economy only half as large as they claim.
@sittingduck02
@sittingduck02 2 месяца назад
@@jeffreykalb9752so why worry about China? Why talk about China? They are insignificant as you described.
@thesilkpainter
@thesilkpainter 2 месяца назад
....maybe.
@brucehan6815
@brucehan6815 2 месяца назад
Thank you for posting
@mistman5640
@mistman5640 2 месяца назад
Compare the two maps, what are advantages offered by China's geography? What are disadvantages to American geography? 1. Himalayas offers impregnable defense against a land power. 2. China can push on multiple levers by being in the middle of Asia. Americans have to project power. Central location means China is harder to play well, where America is harder to play poorly. On the flip side, China in the hand of a great strategic player has many options. Whereas America's hand is limited by its allies, that also could be a liability. 3. California is wide open to an opponent's naval power. That is the nature of a wide open ocean China's coastal defense is easily managed through one or two choke points. America's defense requires a forward presence and offense posture. That is only sustainable through an overwhelming economic advantage. This assumption is gone today. 4. China settled all of its land border except with India and Buthan. India is not America's friend, at least not ideologically as western media portrays. 5. China's land power offers great advantages on connectivity through rail, which America can disrupt at great cost. When America try to copy China's BRI through BBBW, it is a disaster. Because Americans forgot fundamental geography. I could go on, but I will end with this .The rest of the presentation is either outdated information or incomplete information, when everything is filtered through an ideological lens. This professor is an ideological hack and he can only regurgitate accepted western learning. He is illustrative on why the US has performed so poorly and makes so many bad moves, in geopolitics .
@ashkanshekarchi7753
@ashkanshekarchi7753 2 месяца назад
Correct. He’s so biased and receptive of American ideology, lacking the capacity to analyze the situation from Russian, Chinese, and Iranian vantage point objectively. Never seen him in a debate with a heavyweight to wake him up of his misperceptions. He’s either lecturing or get together with his likeminded folks in echo chamber.
@jamesburke3803
@jamesburke3803 2 месяца назад
Nonsense! When he shows the map of China vs the map of the US, anyone picking China's is a fool. The US Navy owns the global oceans, and most other great navies (like Britain and Japan) are our close allies. China cannot project power because it is hemmed in by the first island chain, then the second island chain. And in the event of a "Pearl Harbor" event, ALL shipping into or out of China will immediately cease. And all those Chinese owned ports? They will very rapidly be seized by US Marines. (The idea that California is vulnerable to anything other than all out nuclear war is fanciful) China is on a collision course with its karma. You cannot have an export driven economy, and threaten and piss off your customers. Exports shrink as tariff walls are raised. China is of course extremely protected within its borders, which is why it will probably retreat into isolation -- which has been its normal state for its entire history. Economically, it us destined to follow the Japanese model: the best selling business book of the 1980s was "Japan in the passing lane." Then their bubble burst and never really recovered. China's fall will be MUCH harder and faster!
@ashkanshekarchi7753
@ashkanshekarchi7753 2 месяца назад
@@jamesburke3803 Submarines, hypersonic missiles, and space-controlled weapons make US navies the world over equally vulnerable. Let alone that Chinese navy already surpassed the U.S. in terms of number and tonnage and will soon be equal in technology and carriers. No country or navy own the oceans, and no country dares to choke any straits of importance to global economy to Chinese vessels which equates with the declaration of war. Houthis are kinda non-state actors in a failed states and US navy even failed to overcome their disruptive presence in the Red Sea. Royal navy is a joke! 😃
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
You should just say, it is China home ground advantages.
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
@@jamesburke3803 How little you're replaying FDR action June 1941 on the Japanese before starting WWII in the Pacific. Those so call 1st, 2nd island Chain, US Navel & Allies ship are a joke USA are not telling the American people. China has defense system & had no plan of "projecting power" to others. China build their defense system base on projectiles & spotter aka search & target system. The other secret weapon of China is "time". Ask the cost & energy USA use to build & maintain from 3,000 miles from safe port cost. Even right now, the British 2 Aircraft carrier are decommissions due to lack of aircraft, parts & man. Even right now, the Japanese only have small "Coastal Guard" vessel Even right now, the USA Navel fleets have 10 years backlog repair, maintain need & lack Navel sailor. This will not be a replay of WWII Pacific battles, but more a duck in pond shoot out. China can hit Guam.
@leebarry5686
@leebarry5686 2 месяца назад
People are fed up with this kind of claims for they know the truth, due to their high level of education
@Tim145Tim145
@Tim145Tim145 2 месяца назад
The video is at least 10 years old.
@raymondmiller5098
@raymondmiller5098 2 месяца назад
Filmed in 2017.
@MartinKatz-q4g
@MartinKatz-q4g 2 месяца назад
a geopolitical global analyst who has studied chinese demography and similar data has observed that the Chinese total population size is in freefall, with the one child policy creating a large void in the working age/military age chinese population. Further, most of china's fleet cannot travel more than 1500 km and they have only one aircraft carrier. Lastly, the Chinese economy is export and internal savings based. With protectionism rising, exports will fall, and its internal investment has been focused on housing as evident by the new buildings in vacant cities (falling population needs fewer units) In short, they are a falling, not rising, economic and military power.
@jakedee4117
@jakedee4117 2 месяца назад
As of now, China operates three aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and the recently launched Fujian. Additionally, China is reportedly working on a fourth carrier, known as Type 004 which is expected to feature nuclear propulsion
@dewinmoonl
@dewinmoonl 2 месяца назад
This guy doesn't read Chinese. He reads Russian, and thinks by understanding Russian communism he in turn is an expert on China, because China is also communism. But China is way more than communism, which btw is a western, German, concept written by Marx in 1848. So please, we have 5000 years of history to draw back on. Don't speak for Chinese unless you can glimpse those philosophies first.
@bdnevins
@bdnevins 2 месяца назад
Which of his facts or conclusions was incorrect?
@dewinmoonl
@dewinmoonl 2 месяца назад
@@bdnevins in this video he only stated facts and didn't draw any conclusions. but in some of his other interviews (you can look around for them on YT) he's crediting US and freetrade for almost 100% for the rise of China, while blissfully unaware that the thing which made China so good for US investments at the times 1) highly educated labors, 2) great infrastructure, 3) stable political environment w/o riots and strikes are precisely the product of centralized government running on socialism. Kotkin witnessed the fall of the soviets, and has a high bias toward western concepts like freedom, market-economy, and democracy. this is understandible, as the embodiment of these concepts, US, beat the soviet so badly. but they're not entirely applicable to China and he definitely overplays those aspects more than he should. His description of China is simply "a great ancient civilization" but cannot go into the details of what made it great and what are some of its core beliefs. His institution (Hoover Institution) is one of the most hawkish group out there promoting US hegemony. Many of their stuff seemed very out of touch.
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
This is surely a very, very old information to compare today Worldwide...
@krishnamurthyalappan7995
@krishnamurthyalappan7995 2 месяца назад
History to find meaning in US, is a brave endeavour, hope it is recognised! Thanks.
@khiggins7231
@khiggins7231 2 месяца назад
15:25 The Brits will not like that !
@ansa336
@ansa336 2 месяца назад
Monroe doctrine!
@jxwlticrkld
@jxwlticrkld 2 месяца назад
China does not have 200,000 merchant ships. According to Hellenic Shipping News and Voice of America, China has around 5,500 merchant ships​ (Voice of America)​​ (Hellenic Shipping News)​. Globally, there are approximately 105,500 merchant ships according to UNCTAD​ (UNCTAD Handbook)​. This discrepancy highlights a significant exaggeration or misinformation. How credible is this man when his first claim is such an obvious falsehood?
@AsiaObserver
@AsiaObserver 2 месяца назад
I believe he was referring to the total number of Chinese ships, including fishing vessels, which play an unofficial role as part of China’s maritime militia. An article from, The Diplomat entitled “China’s Maritime Militia Upends Rules on Naval Warfare: The use of fishing vessels as a maritime militia has profound legal implications” explains : “With 200,000 vessels, China operates the largest fishing fleet in the world, and its commercial industry employs 14 million people - 25 percent of the world’s total. This massive enterprise operates in conjunction with the armed forces to promote Beijing’s strategic objectives in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The militia, for example, were involved in the 1974 invasion of the Paracel Islands, as well as impeding freedom of navigation of U.S. military survey ships. The maritime militia also provides logistics support to Chinese warships. In May 2008, for example, militia fishing craft transferred ammunition and fuel to two warships near Zhejiang Province. Fishermen are assigned to collectives or attached to civilian companies and receive military training and political education in order to mobilize and promote China’s interests in the oceans. The fishing vessels of the militia are equipped with advanced electronics, including communications systems and radar that supplement the PLAN force structure and enhance interoperability with other agencies, such as the China Coast Guard. Many boats are equipped with satellite navigation and can track and relay vessel positions, and gather and report maritime intelligence.”
@jslchan9734
@jslchan9734 2 месяца назад
Your explanation pinpoints exactly why this is an exaggeration with the ridiculous claim that all fishing vessels play a role in China’s militia. This kind of speculation is dangerous as there are already claims that all Chinese people in America are potentially spies for the communist party.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
Or he could mean ships built in and owned by China/Chinese people yet registered under flags of convenience. China is if I remember rightly the world's largest shipbuilder and the U.S. in contrast only builds warships because our leaders are horrible greedsters short term thinkers and stabbed our workers in the back over and over again.
@freelunchforchildren4040
@freelunchforchildren4040 2 месяца назад
VOA spreads Lies, we went to China to see for ourselves. The country is do Affordable & Safe.
@supercat4452
@supercat4452 2 месяца назад
@@AsiaObservercia propaganda 😂
@firstal3799
@firstal3799 2 месяца назад
Russia is an ancient civilization??
@Ignatius2601
@Ignatius2601 Месяц назад
Yes if compared to the US 😂
@ycplum7062
@ycplum7062 2 месяца назад
I like how he distills the situation/circumstances down to something simple. Of course, teh solutions are not as simple. lol
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
Yes they are, withdraw to each others "safe zone" home port bases.
@richiewalker0114
@richiewalker0114 Месяц назад
Things have greatly changed economically in China since 2017 big time. It ain’t what it used to be.
@shanratnam6973
@shanratnam6973 Месяц назад
Your map is wrong there are no US bases in India which the indians will not allow. There goes your credibility.
@igolfer
@igolfer 2 месяца назад
The Taiwan issue is the last piece of colonialism and will be resolved in due course. It is time that Western imperialism and colonialism finally come to an end. That’s why politicians in the West are hysterical and delusional and desperate to stop the rise of China. The so called “coming collapse of China”is, in reality, the coming collapse of imperialism and colonialism, or the collapse of global hegemony. For the last 500 hundred years before the beginning of the collapse of colonialism in the 1950s, Europe had been colonizing the rest of the world, mainly for its endless resources and cheap labor to feed its own economic growth. The West had been fighting wars among themselves for colonies and control of raw materials and energy. Ever since the end of the WW2, independence movements across the globe had first set free countries in Asia, followed by Latín America, the Middle East and lastly Africa. The West is, now, no longer able to get free resources or labor or land, to support its dominance over developing countries, or the global South in general. Under these circumstances, Europe, or the West including Japan, is losing its own economic independence; they are relying heavily or existentially on the support of the U.S. In the meantime, on the other hand, the global South with the cooperation among the BRICS COUNTRIES like China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and so on, are focusing on their own economic growth and social development. The new world order is emerging with multipolarity and international democracy for shared prosperity. The West is feeling the heat and threat of its hegemonic collapse. That’s why they are following the marching order of the U.S., in its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. The European countries have become totally dependent on the U.S. for its resources and strength. Without their old colonies, they submit themselves now completely to the hegemony of the U.S. However, with the united front between China and Russia, the global south is awakening to a new world order. They see their hope and prosperity in China’s BRI as well as the strategies of the BRICKS. That’s why the West can not defeat Russia in Ukraine because it doesn’t have the unlimited resources it used to enjoy with their colonies gone foreverf. The bottom line is how can the West or NATO expect to beat the united front between Russia and China in the long run without getting into a nuclear Armhcsageddon?!
@thesilkpainter
@thesilkpainter 2 месяца назад
Um...sorry... I wasn't listening....You went over 500 years back. Can you keep this shorter? Otherwise I will just chalk your talk up to yet another grievance rant
@Allgood33
@Allgood33 Месяц назад
Kotkin should keep himself in the western academic lane. For a scholar, he has such a distorted ideas of how things were or are and how they should be in the East. Omission of information is part of his expertise. Specifics: - Purchasing power may not explain the weight you have in the world. But it is one of China's top goals, prosperity for the Chinese people, not world dominance. Lifting Chinese out of abject poverty instead of ignoring the increasing homelessness in your own backyard like US. Everyone can clearly see the American albatross. US now has zero capacity in paying off its $35 trillion debt without going under. But unlike the weakened and bankrupted UK in WWI to WWII, where US pulled UK out from its economic crisis. There is "no US" to pull US out of this one. Declaring war and refusing to pay is an option. That was how the British solved their trade deficit with China in the colonial era besides drug dealing and selling opium to China. Currently, US is doing every Tanya Harding move of knee capping China. Meantime, the poor Palestinians are taking the hit from American bombs since Israelis are priority number one, the chosen people. - The English language? The language spread because UK was a nasty colonizer. Nothing to be proud of in modern days specially when it came with so many horrid things the British did. Besides, the language itself is not complete and borrowed so many words from other languages. But how would anyone know that unless the person speaks some other "more sophisticated" languages? - Djibouti base. That was built to assist US in containing the pirates. Here, it is presented as a US-type military expansion by the "Kotkin omission." - Spratly Islands were identified by China as early as Tang Dynasty. China has carbon dated Song Dynasty records to back this up. The great Chinese explorer "Zheng He" and the proximity of those islands to China also made this claim indisputable. Just because US and some European countries were non-existing in that period doesn't mean it wasn't so. - Vietnam extended some disputed islands first and continue to do so. But no one seems to be upset or even talk about it. - Kotkin's map is deceiving. The EDCA agreement signed between the Philippines and US was for 5 additional bases. But there are now 13 "known" new US military bases in the Philippines. Defending the Philippines against China? Philippines was colonized by United States for 50 years and more than 140K Filipinos were killed fighting the Americans. And in its five thousand years history of being Philippines "next door neighbor," China never have any conflict with the Philippines. - Xi Jinping discussed with the Obama administration to demilitarize all the bodies of water around Asia and It was rejected. And with all the US military bases that have boxed China in from Japan, Korea, Taiwan to the Philippines, Kotkin presented it as if it is a sinister plot for a sovereign nation of 1.4 billion people to defend its "core interests." At any given time, there are 50-70 American ships and submarines, 150 aircrafts patrolling along the coast of China. Let us not forget how the Americans reacted during the Cuban Missile Crisis. One little Russian submarine in the Coast of Cuba and the world almost gone into a nuclear war. That is the ultimate hypocrisy that Kotkin and the likes of him hardly talk about. The region understands that Asia is better off without the American military presence. How to throw the Americans out of the region is another thing. Sorry to say, many in Asia are praying for the impending American implosion to do the job. I hope it doesn't have to come to that. - "Transparent political system." It took wiki leak and several whistle blowers to expose how "transparent" American political system is. Phone surveillance in a purported democratic country. Fabricated WMD, Abu Ghraib. An American president can have information on a pandemic as early as February and continue to lie about it all the way to July like "it will be gone in a couple of days", and with impunity. 1.2 million American died in that "transparency." I suggest people read the history that led to all the tensions and wars in the world. It is the same rule-based-order countries that are causing all the instability all over the world and China is definitely not one of them. There is no benefit for China to go to war with anyone, anywhere, anytime. Sadly, the "yellow peril" mindset persists even among some of the highest academicians in the West. By zeroing on what is considered truth in the West, these people are afraid of their own shadows. Any correction is welcomed.
@thecount1001
@thecount1001 Месяц назад
yeah, compared to a true expert like you, Kotkin just doesn't know what he's talking about...............
@Allgood33
@Allgood33 Месяц назад
@@thecount1001 Nice sarcasm. Correction?
@Allgood33
@Allgood33 Месяц назад
@@thecount1001 Unlike some who believe every crapola these so called experts say because you know nothing about any of these.
@williamniggle7382
@williamniggle7382 2 месяца назад
America may have the incomparable geographical advantage on this planet based on the bloody history, nevertheless, China has the longest continuous civilisation in the world history, which is the unique source of the Chinese incomparable confidence regardless of "55 days in Peking" by nostalgic West. Fernand Braudel the French historian pointed out: "Civilisations are extraordinary creatures. Their longevity passes all understanding. Fabulously ancient, they live on in each of us, and they will still live on after we have passed away."
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
Todays China has nothing in comen with Its past!They destroyed their culure!
@Piden-l4b
@Piden-l4b 2 месяца назад
Thanks. But I prefer not to live with this wonderful civilization
@jakedee4117
@jakedee4117 2 месяца назад
@@Piden-l4b So what's your answer then genocide? I don't like them, so they've got to go. They were here first, and any nation who can work well with China will be in a better position that a nation that can't.
@xchazz86
@xchazz86 2 месяца назад
No Taiwan, no portfolio.
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
Island of Taiwan is China’s Century of Humiliation 1839-1949 remaining issue.
@nnonotnow
@nnonotnow 2 месяца назад
1992 Chinese people didn't have light bulbs. So they'd come a long way in a very short amount of time. But that whole thing is falling in on them rapidly. There's a lot of straight news out there that says China's economy is failing and the manufacturing of goods and services for the West is coming to an end. They've taken advantage of United States protection of global shipping and that's allowed them to become an economic power. Because that's what we wanted. It was good for them. But now they're fading
@folag
@folag 2 месяца назад
". . . rebuild a 350-ship naval fleet"? Do you even have a proper ship-builder?
@johnnydawson7675
@johnnydawson7675 2 месяца назад
PLEASE, FRIEND, FINISH THE STALIN BIOGRAPHY!
@davidEAW
@davidEAW 2 месяца назад
Excellent fair balanced and objective dissertation of the World we are now staring at
@lowkatherine
@lowkatherine 2 месяца назад
Define Success
@VDP207
@VDP207 2 месяца назад
The situation definitely cannot end well, or prosperous, as Stephen suggests early in his presentation
@ywtcc
@ywtcc 2 месяца назад
Investor led economies have maxed out their debt, and are facing social and economic stagnation. Historically, this is when left wing governments pull ahead. In the interwar period it was the Soviets, today it's China. It looks to me that the Cold War narrative towards China is largely a product of American domestic politics. (As it was against the Soviets!) The American right wing has realized the limitations of their investor led political economy, and now seeks big government solutions. (Ultimately, this is what national Republicans are. Try empowering local governments' spending, and see who's against it. It's big government, because the right wing is against everything else even more!) So, you'll get a lot of this kind of projection. The American right would love Chinese censorship, Chinese trade policies, and the latitude to engage in large projects, like the Chinese government. Communism is not new, and at this point the difference between Communism and the American political system is two party politics. The West's problems are of their own making, by allowing their governments to be undermined by elite, minority interests, at the cost of real economic growth. The question is if and how the West achieves a turnaround. China is no superpower if the West decides to take the lead. It appears to me that the BRICS countries are perfectly happy with the status quo, and are taking advantage of the opportunities provided by allowing money into politics. Does America have enough popular politics to overcome elite mismanagement?
@mebsrea
@mebsrea 2 месяца назад
China’s system is better described as fascist rather than left wing. Most of the economy is in private hands, the social welfare system is considerably less comprehensive than in most Western countries or what it was in the Soviet Bloc during the Cold War, and the regime cultivates an aggressive nationalism rather than any sort of proletarian internationalism.
@ywtcc
@ywtcc 2 месяца назад
@@mebsrea That's the gist of it. Fascism and Communism, in practice, look remarkably similar. Personally, I think we need to leave all these political ideologies in the past. Socialism is from the 1800s, Fascism and Communism from the early 1900s, and Liberalism and Capitalism from the 1700s. Looks to me like we're doing something else, whatever comes after Fascism/Communism. Whatever you call what the USA is doing, it appears dysfunctional. I call it Communism with a Liberal elite, but that's more for illustrative purposes. How about Communism with American characteristics? LOL!
@初与张工作室
@初与张工作室 2 месяца назад
"China has no California" what does that mean?
@chriswong9158
@chriswong9158 2 месяца назад
The nearest USA border to China is California (he was making a joke) why is USA military bases all over China, when closes border issue to the USA is State of California some 3,000 plus miles away... California is not a China border issue compare to the other Nation States around Asia.
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
It has bo global softpower!
@chrisfreebairn870
@chrisfreebairn870 2 месяца назад
​@@chriswong9158No .. it's not a joke, he's talking geopolitics .. the advantages the USA has bc it has no risks N, S, E or W, & a huge productive population on its western border compared with Chinas difficult dessert, plus many other borders it must allocate resources to defend .. you missed this serious point completely ..
@jakedee4117
@jakedee4117 2 месяца назад
I took that to mean that China has no West coast only an East coast.
@chrisfreebairn870
@chrisfreebairn870 2 месяца назад
​@@jakedee4117the point is not the fact of the geography, but the importance of California to America in all it's elements .. ie, as a sea coast barrier to enemies, as well as bc it has a v large & productive economy, ports, faces another ocean etc, compared with the western borders of China, where ethnic issues abound, population & productivity are low & non Chinese are right next door .. the USA is abundantly rich in natural resources & highly favorably placed geographically .. there's a YT video that explains this that I recommend ..
@SNkumar-cy7xq
@SNkumar-cy7xq 2 месяца назад
Map shown as bases are wrong, is he a propaganda man.
@Jerry-ii2yp
@Jerry-ii2yp Месяц назад
While American are talking about international law 😂 funny
@PMMagro
@PMMagro Месяц назад
USA has 1/4 the population of China. You should ask yourself how come? Keep doing waht you did well to get that position. India and South Asia has a bigger population tha Chian and it is still growing. China is stalling now. Instead of switching enemies (Soviet-muslims-China-?) just handle your own nation well. the US is cleraly not handling things well... Sure one has to protect the nations interest abroad too but ..strenght and a sound nation does being at home.
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
But America is the greatest and india but india will not get involved in global situations but will help America
@sr-gc6vh
@sr-gc6vh 2 месяца назад
Propagandistic historian.
@mattgriffiths6488
@mattgriffiths6488 2 месяца назад
Says the CCP propaganda bot ..
@yestomor7673
@yestomor7673 2 месяца назад
@@mattgriffiths6488 Hello, CIA bot.
@accountantthe3394
@accountantthe3394 2 месяца назад
US is full of these two-bit so-called academics 😂 Afterall the China doomer Gordon chang paved the way for them, the average joe laps up the slop regardless
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
Whatever but America is the Greatest
@accountantthe3394
@accountantthe3394 2 месяца назад
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 sureeeee
@davidrizkk
@davidrizkk 2 месяца назад
China is the world’s greatest manufacturer, trader, investor, lender. China is getting greater, the US smaller with every passing day. The superpowers of tomorrow: China, India, The West, Islam.
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
Wrong!
@jimnden
@jimnden 2 месяца назад
Peak china is already past. Demographics chief amongst a long list of woes. 21st century is india's to loose. ​@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
​@@jimndenI think the best places will still be north America Europe and maybe the Continent Africa!
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl
@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl 2 месяца назад
​@@jimndenI think whole Asia is doomed!Thailand will possible suffer the most!
@Piden-l4b
@Piden-l4b 2 месяца назад
Wonderful. Thank you. Can’t wait to live amongst these beautiful cultures
@初与张工作室
@初与张工作室 2 месяца назад
13:48 "But it (China) doesn't have a transparent political system." Man this guy is so naive. I mean, as a stanford teacher, this guy is implying that US has a transparent political system.
@WingkKong
@WingkKong 2 месяца назад
The rich man run in american
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
No body can take on USA china😭
@klausschroiff4405
@klausschroiff4405 2 месяца назад
China's demise is written in its demographics. It is at its peak power now, but in 50 years, it will be a country primarily inhabited by elderly people with a dramatically smaller population-500 million fewer people than today. Western countries solve their demographic problems via immigration from poorer countries. China doesn't have this ability - nobody wants to live there. So keep calm and carry on.
@elmerwiedenhoftbogdanow9673
@elmerwiedenhoftbogdanow9673 2 месяца назад
What a poor judge and aimiing from the person doing the video... failiing to show what Professor Kotkin was showing to his lecturers...
@thelammas8283
@thelammas8283 2 месяца назад
We might just be talking about the end of the American Empire.
@HizzHyness
@HizzHyness 2 месяца назад
Kotkin hitting it out the park once again
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
Hates russia but
@carlbyronrodgers
@carlbyronrodgers 2 месяца назад
Appeasement?
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
America love's china
@msomayya2828
@msomayya2828 2 месяца назад
👍
@jamesruscheinski8602
@jamesruscheinski8602 2 месяца назад
God sovereignty over nations and peoples
@peterwhimster
@peterwhimster Месяц назад
End of the World .. nonsense.
@SMK-SAS
@SMK-SAS 14 дней назад
Mere nonsense
@russellmcfarling7498
@russellmcfarling7498 2 месяца назад
😂😂😂😂😂
@jamesruscheinski8602
@jamesruscheinski8602 2 месяца назад
international law and government are human sovereignty; God sovereignty over nations and peoples
@jaifernandez2989
@jaifernandez2989 2 месяца назад
Russia,China and the US threaten so many people with nuclear weapons that God's sovereignty over the Earth has no meaning.
@QuizmasterLaw
@QuizmasterLaw 2 месяца назад
omg omg the Chinese have 200k merchant ships Yeah tardies, where did all that walmart swag come from? It's like the word "gratitude" can't even occur to ERMAGERD MUH PORTFOLIO ygwfyd...
@Piden-l4b
@Piden-l4b 2 месяца назад
Because we got used to buying cheap stuff that nobody really needs
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