Home builders trigger major Recession Warning. Supply spikes to 2008 levels. 

While everyone in the mainstream media continues to refer to the "housing shortage", supply on builder lots is now at the highest level since 2008. This is causing massive inventory spikes in many parts of America, particularly in the South. Head to www.reventure.app and search the home value and inventory trends in your market to stay up to date on what's happening.

I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other RU-vid trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow

More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.

Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.

I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.

A recession is currently the "most likely consequence for the economy," and I cannot fathom becoming a victim of circumstances, with inflation at a four-decade high. In two years, I plan to retire, and my target retirement fund is $967,000. How can I assure this? What steps can I take?

This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?

It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.

As the housing crisis poses a significant risk of triggering a global market crash or financial crisis,it could send shockwaves through the stock markets worldwide. I’m worried about my investment of over $600K stocks. Is this a time to consider diversifying my portfolios?

This recession should have happened in 2022 but the government printed money and kicked the can

It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to protect my $300K stock portfolio from decline is my main concern, but I don't really know which way to go.

I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

just sold a property in Texas and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.

You have to be out of your mind to buy a new build with an HOA in 2024. No way in hell would I buy their garbage.

I dont feel sorry for home builders, realtors or car dealers they are all crooks

700k for a house in 100 degree humid climate with no trees to shade and in the Stix. Prices are bonkers. Who the hell needs 2600 sq ft to cool/heat and maintain and more importantly....who TF! needs 4 bathrooms?!? 😂

After the mess we had in 2007-2010 I can't believe they inflated another bubble with super low rates and loose money. We never learn from our mistakes.

The housing market is inflated and oversaturated with homes being on the market with astronomical price tags just stagnant for months. It is very clear that or generation will be likely one of the most devastating bubble pops in modern history. Seeking best possible ways to grow 250k into $1m+ and get a good house for retirement, I'm 48.

I sold an apartment in Springfield and made about $250K. I was frustrated when I only earned $171 in interest from a regular savings account. After doing some research, I was advised to invest in stocks. Are stocks a good point to start from?

It’s insane you can’t buy a home for these prices. It feels like everybody has 300k for down payment Or they can swing 4500 a month everybody makes 300k a year????? Something don’t add up.

My neighbor is in the drywall business. I asked his wife how busy he was and she replied "He's been off the last three days, there's no work." Not good to see it happening next door.

A million bucks for a tract home in Loxahatchee is nuts. I don’t care how much you want to live in Palm Beach County, that is nuts.

I moved from Tampa to Santa Clara a few months ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home there, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? Looks like NVDA, TSM and AMD and AVGO are strong buys this week.

The LAST shoe to fall was employment, and that contraction has started spreading like wildfire as well.

I live in Huntsville Alabama where they have been building new homes and apartments like there’s no end in sight. I don’t understand how builders think this is sustainable. To me it seems like they’ve overbuilt but that’s not stopping them. I can’t imagine how this can end well. They’ve ruined the charm of the town.

American people SCREWED again from greed ! 😢

It's not Florida's heat that's bad. It's the HUMIDITY! Anyone used to drier west coast weather will hate Florida.

A new house at the zip code 76002 was sold at an inflated price of $180k in 2006 and was foreclosed by the bank and sold for $118k in 2010. The same house was sold for $328k in 2022 for an investor and has been unable to rent it for $2800/month.

I think this is going to be region dependent. Florida now has a perception of rising unaffordable insurance costs and people literally trying to abandon their condos at any price. These factors are gonna drag prices down.

The construction industry is completely dead in WA. One major lumber mill recently closed down, the lumber yards are empty and I don't know any carpenters that are still working except for one who works for Boeing. Six out of the 24 homes in my little country community with each home having at least 5 acres are brand new residents. I feel sorry for them because they all purchased at the top of the market in bidding wars. Now one of them is loosing their job in the construction industry with a brand new baby. I hope that they make through OK because that must be very difficult to afford all that they have going. The same thing happened to me in the last housing crash of 2008 but I still had work till 2010. I didn't have any more work so I moved to a different area, rented for two years and then purchased a lot at the bottom of the market and built a debt free home on the nights and weekends without hiring anyone to help me. I did it all by myself except for on concrete day. I recently sold that home at the top of the market after doing a lot line adjustment so that I could keep the other half of my land and am building another home on the other half. The land was free minus the small cost of getting the lot line adjustment. I'm sitting pretty well after I did that and when the market crashes, I will be purchasing a small apartment building. Probably a tenplex or something like that and retire early so that I can purchase a sailboat and sail around the world and still keep my place on the other half of my lot. I'm living in a travel trailer on my land why I'm build so that I can save money rather than pissing my money away on renting. I'm about ready to sell that travel trailer as soon as I get dried in which I'm almost there. All I need is the roof, exterior windows and doors and a working bathroom to move in. I'll finish it up while I'm living in a closed off section so that I don't get my bed dusty. That's the way I've done it several times before.

I left Florida in '23 because of the heat, humidity daily summer storms, terrible traffic,Hurricane Ian and bad food...moved back to Las Vegas

Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

I got news for you brother, New Yorkers have been invading Palm Beach County for past 50 years or more. That's why I left my hometown of Delray Beach and moved to Northern Florida over 30 years ago. Native-born Floridians like me have a saying, "the further south you go in Florida, the more north you go."

I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

DO NOT, i repeat DO NOT open an office in California. Thank me later.

With HOA and insurances nobody would buy in Florida anymore. Tell the rich to keep those houses for themselves.

The problem is home prices haven't come down at all. People can't afford a home on a single income.

A 9 month supply of houses that are not affordable is not a supply.

In Phoenix we are having another scorcher this summer. We already hit 118* this year. I have talked to some of my customers, and they are looking to leave. They cannot handle the oven.

If I was selling my house, I’d be cutting my price and lowering expectations because it’s only going to get worse. Sellers minds are living in lala land.

The problem with most Developers is that they fell in love with building nothing but McMansions when Interest Rates were below 5% . Profits were High and people could afford the payment . Now the opposite is true . Interest Rates are at 7% and the Homes are still north of $400,000.00 . Florida has another serious problem as Property Insurance Costs from Orlando Southward are nearly the same as a House Payment was Pre-Pandemic .

"homes will be 50% off soon. I've been wrong the past 4 years but just trust me" - Reventure

That weather analogy was right on point. I lived in the Fort Lauderdale area for 8 years in the first part of 2000's. My Camaro didn't have ac and I was sitting in traffic waiting for it to move and I fainted from the heat. I was young and fit back then. Still it knocked me out. It was probably 120 in the car. Anyone, especially the over 50 crowd need to think very seriously about their health before moving to Florida. If you have any kind of heart issues, do not even think about it. Unless you don't mind staying in an ac environment for the rest of your life. Be prepared to pay a couple of hundred bucks for electricity every month depending on how big your place is. Budget for the cost of ac repairs. Walking around, playing sports, forget about it. The only place outside that's tolerable is at the beach because of the breeze or if you have one, by the pool. So even in a few years when prices will be 50% lower, if you can't take the heat, don't want to pay a fortune for utilities, stay away.

When nobody wants to buy a house, asks about buying a house, thinks about buying a house. THEN the downturn will really get going. until then it's just people catching a falling knife.

Imagine what would happen to home prices if not for an infinite stream of rent seekers flooding the country.

I'm a Florida lifer. Born here in 1978 and still here. And yeah, I tell people it feel like getting out of a hot tub and then going in sitting in the sauna.

Personally I think South Florida is a cesspool. I grew up in South Florida. The crime, the con-artists, the traffic, the high taxes, the aging infrastructure is horrible, the flooding is really bad even if it rains a little. The gangs, flop houses and drugs are bad. Don't believe the charts, they don't report the official stats. I finally escaped when I was 35. That was in 1997. I moved to North Florida. Completely different good people.

Florida is nasty hot from May to September. Too hot to go outside and do anything past 10am. My dad's pool felt like a luke warm bath. People up north think FL is a real live Magaritaville where you can take your grandkids to Disney every so often. Not sure how standing in a blazing hot themepark is "magical"

The high humidity in conjunction with the high temperatures cause the heat index to increase which translates to more sweating. A high temperature with low humidity decreases the heat index and it feels much cooler with less sweating.

I lived in Florida. It is flat, humid, and buggy. You also have hurricane season. Don't miss it at all. That was back when it was cheap to live there. Couldn't imagine living there now with the high costs to boot. I hated always having to have the bug guy come out and spray the inside and outside of the house. Plus, there are the cockroaches, that they give the pretty name of Palmetto bug. It's a cockroach. I don't miss any of it. If you have pets, you get the displeasure of dealing with the fleas too. A lot of people who moved there will probably get sick of it eventually. This year is predicted to be a terrible hurricane season. We will see who stays, and who leaves.

Instead of building these depressing, isolated houses, they should build a new walkable town or city with a main street and things going on, where you arent a slave to a car. The cities are so overpriced because there is so much demand. People want to live in communities not suburbs. We need more city like housing

They just downgraded DR Horton and Lennar. Florida is a big problem for all builders. Florida has always been a Boom/Bust state too. Thanks Nick!

The year 2008 is the good old days, compared to what's coming.

Average Americans have been in a recession for at least a year already. A sh!tstorm is coming and absolutely nothing can stop it.

FRED economic data shows 577,000 new single-family homes in July 2006 peak and 481,000 in May, but your point is correct nonetheless. The trajectory shows definitively that inventory will eclipse 2006-2007 by a lot, and as unemployment triples over the next 2 years, home values will crash 60% in TX and FL, 50+% in AZ and TN and over 40% everywhere else in the US. I'm actually convinced old fixer uppers in FL will crash 70% because I bought an old fixer upper 1 mile from the beach in 2009 for 65% off of 2007 values and it dropped another 6% in value in 2010 and the math is so much worse this time in terms of unaffordability relative to the median income, it's not even in the same ballpark.

I am 71 and survived the late 70s/early 80s oil embargo and the 2008 recessions, but what is coming I believe will be far worse the longer the FED artificially props up the economy for the 2024 elections and the government keeps spending like drunk sailors. To those complaining about 7% mortgage rates my 1981 rate was 16%. After several year we refinanced at 9% and living frugally paid off the mortgage in 11 years all while maxing out my 401K. Retired now and living comfortably in the same small ranch house. Today the young just starting out and those in their 40s and 50s with a family and all of the associated expenses are just trying to survive to the next week let alone even contemplating the fantasy of retiring. Over the decades wages have simply not kept up with the real inflation rate which is at least 2 to 3 time the bogus rate reported by our lying corrupt government. It may be too late, but carefully vet the candidates before casting your votes. Think logically considering accomplishment, not emotionally on personality.

Thank god I bought in 1998. 118,000$ is what I paid. It’s a 1500sf house with a front and back porch. It got hit by the hurricane in 2005. So the interior was totally rebuilt. I feel so happy to have my home. These 400-700,000$ homes. Wow how can anybody afford such?

I work for a municipality in So Cal, and developers are SCRAMBLING now to get entitlement to their properties! 😮😮 My guess is that they to hit the iron while it is still hot, though cooling very fast! I remember a similar situation in 08.

It would be nice to see an 80% price reduction

Nick, just watched your latest posting. I haven't always agreed with you, but here you are 100% correct. Thanks for the well thought out analysis and predictions. Good luck on your app and move to Florida.

What sucks even for those who came here to Florida and paid these out-of-control prices for these houses are going to owe 2 to 3 times on those houses than what they're going to be worth. I talked my brother out of buying a new house about 8 months ago, I told him to wait at least a year because things are going to crash. Housing prices GRADUALLY increase, so when you see their prices skyrocket to over double or more in a short amount of time, you can bank on the fact that it will not last, It can't last, that type of thing is not sustainable.

The home prices will definitely drop. I hope more first-time buyers will be able to afford one.

St. Petersburg Florida would be a great place for your office. It’s going to experience a lot of growth due to the shortage of land and the nature of it being a peninsula.

Here in Phoenix, just hot, rarely humidity. Huge difference. Oh and pistol in your pocket or holster on your hip, no license required by law. Carjack the wrong guy or gal here…. And many are carrying.

Nick, you should open up a Reventure office in Freeport Bahamas, only 60 miles from West Palm Beach. This is where all the money is going to be flowing in the next decade. The place is nearly undiscovered.

Good. I'm happy to see it. Builder inventory is up, lumber and appliances are on fire sale. I hope they keep building and flood the market even further with inventory.

Homebuilders are doing the same thing as auto makers. They're building high end models when most people are looking for affordability.

All forests cleared out and temperatures going up

Jupiter, FL is a very nice place to live so I would say that would be a good place to open your shop. You want a good place to live and work so it's not all work and no play/ fun. You want your home to be a peaceful location where you love living there. For me, I like the water front on acreage with a nice yard to relax in.

I moved to Florida after college in 1982. My 1973 beetle which I drove down to Florida did not have air conditioning. I got a job as a stock broker in Palm beach and I lived in Palm Beach Gardens. In the summer months I would start out wearing my white dress shirt and my suit. By the time I arrived at the office I would jump into the men's room and change my dress shirt for another white dress shirt because my shirt was soaked with sweat from the drive to the office. It was so hot, I'll never forget it. My first bonus check I drove to Roger Dean Chevrolet on Northlake Blvd and I bought a 1983 Chevy Camaro with air for $9,200. Florida get really hot in the summer followed by thunder and deadly lightening storms.

Nick is our nation’s messenger. In Davenport Iowa. John Deere just laid off 650 people. Ups laid off 550. Meat processing plants are completely shut down all across Iowa. Several thousands of families are being affected tremendously. These companies doing this will have a huge impact on the price of inflation on food and goods in Florida. Transportation companies don’t even want to go to Florida. Because, it doesn’t pay anything to go there and leave from there. Residents in Florida better stock up. Hate for someone to choose from food for the family or a mortgage payment.

most of us know crash is coming, and this has been talking for years. the problem is when! it could be interesting to see a interview video on people who recently bought a home, why they did it...

Left Florida. Can’t imagine returning.

Thank you, sir. Great video as usual. 😊❤

I like that the unfinished home shown at 2:00 is cinderblock and metal studs. This allows the builder to abandon it for a year or two without it getting moldy. Might come in handy.

Use to live in Orlando and what you said about taking a shower in your clothes and walking outside in the wet clothes is right on. NOW I live in Arizona that was over 115 today. The way I tell people the how it is different than Florida is “Go put some cookies in the oven. When they are done, and you open the oven door to grab them, and that heat hits you in the face and you wince! “That is what waking outside from the AC of your house and car feels here. :)

Polk County markets should’ve never jumped on the greed,cash grab bandwagon!!!!

Opening up a office in Florida ? A Very Bad Idea ! Period !😮

After 2008 I'm so glad my home is paid for and i love where i live out in the country on acreage.

Presented very good data to support your arguments. Well done and very informative! Thank you.

I'm from Florida and that is a perfect analogy!

7;15 Water and include some salt if you're not medically restricted. I had ankle and finger cramps last week and realized I had been profusely sweating outdoors while drinking caffeinated beverages. Great video.

It has been over 25 years since I left Nashville and moved to Broward County, the best decision I ever made, and I do not regret it! I loved this area; it is very beautiful. I wanted to be in Florida but not in the hustle and bustle, and I found something similar to Nashville in Broward. My best wishes to you in your goals, and I hope everything goes well for you.

CONTRUCTION STOPS, EVERYTHING STOPS, IT'S GOING TO BE A SAD DAY 😢😢

This crash will be worse than 2008. Reason why is there is not much rate relief that came be offered to people. In 2008, no one had a 3% had lowering rate made a big impact. It will only help a few this time. From the commercial lending side SBA lending has been on steroids for the past 15 years. The crash will bottom out when commercial real estate becomes affordable for small business again.

Nick, any chance for a trip to Vegas or the outlying areas? We are looking at Boulder City or Pahrump and keeping our fingers crossed for some discounts in the future. Love the vids! Great job!

What concerns me is, big corporations buying up all the single family homes if prices drop

They’ve built wayyyy too many 5+ bedroom two story units and not enough 3-4 bedroom ranch starter homes.

Been watching this channel on and off for 4 + years. He's been pushing a housing crash the whole time. Meanwhile prices, and interested rates, have skyrocketed. Feel sorry for people who put off buying a house because they were watching this channel. Total click bait.

you are right about people in the northeast selling and moving south. People on my street that have multi families are selling them for well over a million dollars. it's crazy

I lived in Florida in 2006 -2008 trust me there was downturn and a recession happening! When we moved there, we moved into a neighborhood that was basically empty …because people went upside down with their mortgages so we were living in a neighborhood where there was nobody. Thank you for your content, very honest reporting.

It’s 2008 all over again. 😂😂

Tens of thousands of construction workers laid off just last month

I make a pretty good living and I’ve been eyeing houses in Florida and Georgia but I’ve held off because the cost of owning a home HOA fees and rules, property taxes fluctuations, and home owners insurance makes owning in Florida very unattractive. I’m in Colorado and prices are very slowly coming down but definitely no where near where they need to be. Also homes here are in my opinion over sized, this will increase the over all operating costs of the home, property tax, home owners insurance, heating and cooling costs. We don’t have insane HAO fees yet but I imagine they’re around the corner. Colorado has fire and hail which means regional home owners insurance will be high. We’re also starting to get extreme weather like monsoon style rains storms (avoid living at the bottom of a hill).

Those shades are bad ass Nick. I want a pair like those.

You don't know humidity until you've been to Okinawa, Japan!

Bravo, Nick! Thank you for the informative presentation. Florida heat tip: I'm near Melbourne Beach. Just drinking water won't help you with the heat. You need to put electrolyte in your water...and stay hydrated all day long. This heat can kick your ass if you're not careful. Cheers.

I can drive around and see with my eyes plainly that there’s more houses for sale and they’ve been for sale for longer periods of time than ever before.

Prices move slowly when it’s individual home owners, when it’s big investors they cut a lot faster.

at 4% unemployment and with golden hancuffs still in place. This is just a trickle when unemployment goes to 5% and beyond and the fed cuts rates then the dam will really break and inventory will double. New listings are still about 50% lower than pre pandemic and inv is still rising fast. Almost 0 demand.