Home sellers are coming back to the market

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Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.
Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
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Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.

Опубликовано:

3 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 28

@PaulKatrina. 5 месяцев назад

Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.

@ScottKindle-bk3hx 5 месяцев назад

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

@DorathyJoy 5 месяцев назад

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

@berniceburgos- 5 месяцев назад

this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

@DorathyJoy 5 месяцев назад

Melissa Terri Swayne’ maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.

@HectorWhitney 5 месяцев назад

Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.

@TopMortgageLender 5 месяцев назад

It is interesting to look at the data week over week. We often talk about rates and their impact on affordability; however, the power of the wealth effect created by stocks/investments is also a big driver behind sentiment and activity. Last week, the world was ending...inflation was running wild, the Fed may need to raise, war was brewing and caution was in the air. To end this week, it was a completely different story and we (DC-Baltimore Metro) have seen a big uptick in buyer activity. I'm curious to see how this week plays out nationally!

@GPCookieMonster 5 месяцев назад

Why is your median house price in contract different from the St Louis FED’s median house prices for homes sold? They have Q4 of 2022 as the peak for house prices.

@COArsenal 5 месяцев назад

If this a serious question? 😂 The FED’s price is the median of the 3 month period that ended almost 4 months ago. Q4 is almost always the low point for home price in any year. The other one is the median price of homes going under contract THIS WEEK at the height of buyer demand…when home prices are moving toward their highest point of the year.

@GPCookieMonster 5 месяцев назад

@@COArsenal It is a serious question, thanks for clarifying. I still don’t understand how the median price of houses for each WEEK in Q4 2022 can be lower than the median price of houses for the whole Q4 2022, which is the highest in history at $479,500 according to the FED data.

@seanoconnor8138 5 месяцев назад

sellers yes, buyers no!

@Openminder321 5 месяцев назад

Curious your take if housing inventory continues to slowly build and we are back to pre-covid levels which don't seem that far off? Can prices continue to be where they are at assuming no changes to demand

@michaelsd284 5 месяцев назад

Two things here. First, not sure if Alto's inventory numbers include new builds. The reason I raise this is that all signs from the builders and constructions data show a slow down (permits and starts are all down YTD). Regarding price decreases, this would definitely be good for the overall market health, but unfortunately their is no "mass" catalyst to cause a significant price correction (i.e. like the 2008 sub-prime variable rate reset). Personally I would have a hard time selling a home where I have a 3% mortgage only to buy a similar home with a +7% mortgage (basically a $350k 30yr fixed costs $1500/month for total $550k vs $2,500/month for total of $900k). This means for the next 18-24 months we are going to only see sales by people who need to sell or need to buy. Until we get back to the normal "relocation market" where people are moving around as normal we will see flat prices as Mike noted.

@seanoconnor8138 5 месяцев назад

@@michaelsd284 you're describing why someone wouldn't buy as well as sell, so that would have no net effect on the market. there are a lot more sellers than buyers right now, plain and simple.

@user-dj5sx5nt1m 5 месяцев назад

@@michaelsd284 accounting for overall inflation the past few years, a lot of people's homes are already worth less than they were two or three years ago.

@memofresquez908 5 месяцев назад

Rates to Increath?

@Wrek100 5 месяцев назад

Hopefulleth

@GPCookieMonster 5 месяцев назад

Why is it MORE optimistic for sales to increase without prices falling?

@AltosResearch 5 месяцев назад

Because the scary scenario is when inventory increases but sales don't increase. As much as some might think they want home prices to crash, I find that scenario to have terrible consequences for nearly everyone in the country. If people are buying homes, that's optimistic.

@michaelsd284 5 месяцев назад

@@AltosResearch I do not advocate for home prices to crash, but the price increases from 2020-2022 need to fall back in line with historical trends. This will bring buyers back into the market regardless of the rates (unless they go past 9%). We need the entire market to be healthy and holding artificially inflated home prices is a huge negative and will continue to keep buyer away even if rates decrease. The resales market needs to pay attention to the corporate side of the industry (builders) as maintaining high price will drive builders to continue to decrease their margins to meet wall street expectations/pressure and buyers will priorities new builds over re-sales. This market correction is purely about home prices and less about inventory and mortgage rates.

@simplyeasydiy 5 месяцев назад

@@michaelsd284 Agreed!! It is not optimistic at all to hope people will buy homes despite the cost. In the long run, "I find that scenario to have terrible consequences for nearly everyone in the country."

@The_Clumsy_Investor 5 месяцев назад

How about we be optimistic that inventory returns to pre-pandemic levels and prices return to something more reasonable LOL

@poonekar 5 месяцев назад

@@michaelsd284 there are two ways to revert to the mean … over price (like you said prices come down) or over time (price stays flat for a long period of time. Even though everyone is hoping for the former, the latter seems more likely to me.