Biaheza is the perfect example of why you should stick to your own plan and ignore the noise. Literally everyone who bashed him in that video was WRONG. I went and looked over some of those comments after this video and man a lot of people owe him an apology.
So true, its easy to see some random comments throwing financial terms around as the truth. Someone calling himself the option prophet was very skeptical and now my guy is nearing 180% return
@@user-wi6vkq21k9a dude he did it for half that time and is already up almost 200%. There’s nothing riskier about what he did than what buying calls on any other stock would be. It could go up and it could go down. He held through both scenarios and came out on top.
You actually explain things well and in an understandable way. Thank you Edit: This is my first ever "popular" comment wtf lol. You beautiful people have an amazing day. Chase your dreams. Don't forget, we only have 1 life :)
@@doubtlesswisdom8408 Doesn't matter. Make THIS life as amazing as possible! Who knows, you might reincarnate into your family tree again and if your family is rich af because you made them, you're all set!
Biheza I have 100k at 17 years old, and have no clue what to do with the money or where to invest it. What do you recommend (Im still making 10-15k a month)
Just hold cash for now, fr. We don't know if market keeps falling and how long it will take to recover (frozen money). Shorting is also a gamble. Wait for recession, buy some solid stocks, gold, maybe a house with cash. But now, i would probably just hold on to it
this is the only time ive actually understood inflation, great video biaheza. i love how you understand finances and explain it in an understandable way. you're keeping my subscription
Saw your original video on this and did my own research, used ticker SRS which has a similar function to DRV. Stuck with it for the same time and my portfolio has been blessing me almost everyday for the past week. great call!
These videos got such funny editing I be cracking up while learning. Biaheza like 20 and a better teacher than anyone I’ve ever had (and I’m at a name brand college)
lol truth! I love that he is so young - and honestly a grinder - 1.23M I watched almost every piece of content he made about 3-4 years back when he was 100k Subs
This is actually insane lol. I ended up snagging some DRV shares at $37.32 when it was breaking out of a wedge. Currently I am up 81% which is nice but man that 180% seems a little better. 💀btw love the outro
Show how valuable it is to take your initial back and get a free ride. Your educating and doing one of the key things there is to do when trading - cashing in some!
A couple things you didn't mention: 1) real estate prices move slowly, it's going to take awhile to see substantial price corrections. 2) Prices of homes won't drop to the monthly payment that makes sense for that same buyer of a few months ago. That buyer will adjust their search, perhaps look in a different market, a smaller home, etc. and buy that one now. Someone that was looking for a $650k home may now be looking at that same $500k home, and so on and so forth up the ladder. 3) The #1 factor is supply vs. demand. Demand is cooling off, but supply is still low. Until that balance shifts more, you won't see prices come down that much. The coasts and vacation home markets are getting hit the hardest because that demand has dried up quickly and they were overheated substantially vs. covid. Other markets are still getting bid up in price, but just at a much slower rate which is a good thing for a balanced market.
As a insignificant 17 year old econ student, my personal prediction is that the housing market will crash within the next 6-12 months due to people’s disposable income dropping as a result of the cost of living crisis here in the uk, as well as other factors. For the US I’m not so sure. Great Vid, I’m still grinding away at my SMMA so hopefully I’ll have enough to invest in the future.
As an official graduate from the university of TrustMeBro I predict that the market in general will go up or down within the timeframe of sooner or later
Unlikely to crash what usually happens is the market stays still. Some people may exchange/sell for less though usually they are the ones that bought the property at a lower price and have no mortgage. Property has always in recent history in the uk been a good investment.
I also see both UK and US housing for SFH as an old Econ Bachelor. Its too brazen and unsustainable. I would have shorted it too, just these instruments are not available to me
Hey so I work for a brokerage company (can’t tell you which) and you should definitely keep your play but you could easily restructure your position on DRV so you aren’t getting killed by theta So if I were you I would close your position Sell a put spread on November options - buy 50 put, sell 55 put Sell a call spread on October options - sell 85 call, buy 90 call Buy as many single legs further out as you want - Jan 23 95’s for example October call options just assumes that real estate won’t go down significantly more and goes towards financing your Jan calls The November put spread also helps finance your Jan calls assuming real estate doesn’t recover And then you have the upside potential from the Jan calls obviously Idk what size you would do but mess with strikes for the best fill you can get and whatever risk you want to take on Margin requirement is $500 per spread and the idea is that the sector goes down about 5% a month, and the credit spreads make the Jan calls cheaper so you can leverage more So that’s an idea if you wanna leverage this You could also do ridiculous stuff like buying the shares and selling calls or doing a synthetic long option position or throw in some bullish debit spreads but that’s probably just too much.
Very good job. You understand money and the economy better than most people twice your age. Congrats!!! You are very fortunate that you CAN afford a $24 Chipotle bowl. I stopped eating there a while ago. Many people are now putting their grocery bills on credit cards. Amazing how things change in less than 2 years. I wonder what is different now in Oct 2022 than back in Jan 2020??? Hmmmmm
Supply constraint is still real, it’s not going to crash like it did in 08 given most people have a 30 year fixed and the lending standards are much higher, watch it have a slow bleed out or stagnate till rates turn from here. I’d sell your short after the next rate hike (depending on expiration date ofc)
dude's putting in 10k as a TROLL while im out here struggling to pay my 3k debt in order to start getting the expendable cash to put into what Biaheza's teaching that's a mad lad that I hope to become
Now imagine having 30k at your disposal but being well aware that you’re an idiot and if you try to copy what this guy does you’re liable to lose it all 😢
Solid video man. Very well thought out and put together. Also love the wall decor. Year-over-year home prices are still up, but month-over-month they are falling. Will be interesting to see the YoY numbers coming into Q1 and Q2. Take 20k off the table, let the initial 10k ride (make 10k profit instead of breaking even when you were right)
Buying calls is a rookie mistake. Volatility going down crashes your contract prices. Either sell puts if your are bullish or find an inverse where you can buy puts and volatity is in your favor
Your content is amazing Biaheza All the guys bashing you and giving their "expert" advice in the original video have just embarrassed themselves I don't do srocjs myself but I started my marketing agency 3 months ago as a 21 year old and made $4.2k last month and I made videos on how I got those clients Keep it up man
you keep getting better every video! keep up the good work and I look forward to more content! Also, please cash out of your 170% so that you can afford more Chipotle bowls in the future!
Bro your videos are very entertaining and you explain things very good I can understand what you are saying and I am not into investing and similar stuff. Keep up the good work
Never regret a day in your life. Good days give you happiness, bad days give you experience, worst days give you lessons, and best days give you memories.Keep going 💪🏽💗
So the reason for a crash is assuming a lot of people will sell off their homes. Didnt the previous recession also have tons of people lose their job? Currently, it looks like there are always job openings. If people dont lose their job and they purchased a house at 2-3% interest then they are less likely to sell. If market prices fall and they look at purchasing a new home with high interest they may become deterred from selling. To see any sort of crash we would need interest rates to go high and people needing to sell their homes forcing them into selling for less and less.
Bro... because I enjoyed the video, I'm gonna hook you up... check out the amount of open options contracts out for UVXY 50-75c Jan 20, 2023, then look at Tradingview when Covid hit, or any other market crashes... that play was ::Borat voice:: VERY NIIIICE!!!
Only reason it wouldnt crash is in high population dense areas imo. Unless the people have a reason to leave that area which could be the pricing of the houses the amount of area will always be a constant in this day and age thus in high population density people are forced to buy whatever housing is cheapest at the time even if its out of their budget cause they will go homeless if they don't. I say this as I live in one of the top 10 populated dense countries in the world. I feel like now properties will go stale instead of keep rising instead of declining like they are doing in US. Hopefully they will decline as I'm still waiting for a good buy postion and would like to see what happening in the next few months before I invest anything. We are also high touristic so property would be great for airbnb however airbnb been getting some bad rep so that's also a potential risk
Mathematically, you cannot pump & dump an option on an etf, as both instruments’ prices are the result of a fixed formula based on their respective underlying. The underlying of the option being the etf, and its underlying in turn being the portfolio it is indexed to. So unless your words are strong enough to, in this case, make hundreds of real estate investors run for the doors immediately, there is nothing you can do to impact the price of the instruments.
Man I've been looking at this since March 2021. Principal on a property needs to theoretically drop 11% per 1% interest increase. 100k house @ 4% interest with 5% down = $454/month same house 89k @ 5% interest with 5% down = $454/month same house $79,210 @ 6% interest with 5% down = $451/month same house $70,496.90 @ 7% interest with 5% down = $445/month I made an Google spreadsheet to show how different priced houses would work and its always about 11% principal drop per 1% interest increase at any given price, it's just math. Edit: I think it's strongly worth noting that a 5% down payment on a 70k house is much less than the same 100k house. so there is some maneuvering you could do with refinances to end up on top.
Great content, but the stock background music = unnecessary and distracting for musicians. You need cello arpeggios to help you explain your ETF position, Bia?
I’m not sure if there will be a huge crash like in ‘08. More likely to correct back to 2018-19 levels. For there to be a crash there would have to be a lot of selling, those who bought homes pre pandemic will most likely not sell unless we start to see job cuts. IMO a lot of tech jobs will be cut, which could lead to some selling. I think we see higher FF rate, to bring inflation back to a norm, then rate cuts to stimulate the economy once again.
Prices of construction materials are growing and so it’s much more expensive to build new homes (less offers of new homes, keeping prices for new homes up). That’s at least happening here in Germany atm, I don’t know about the US though
I manage a lumber yard in the Midwest.. Construction materials have been on a huge dip in the last 5-6 months. Lumber is almost the price it was pre pandemic. Increase is in lots/labor/interest rates.
“You can only become truly accomplished at something you love. Don't make money your goal. Instead, pursue the things you love doing, and then do them so well that people can't take their eyes off you.” Maya Angelou ~~~~
So 12 contracts at 8.75 ($875 each) is where he got filled. I check today sep. 27 and they’re at 26.55 or $2655…. Woah that’s literally above a 300% return. And honestly I think it’s still good to buy some cuz it’s gonna be bad for a couple more months. Will check in after 3 months and update :)
The problem with shorting these is they don't move enough; Better to short Put options on Travelers; They are insuring coastal states that have increased their hurricane code which makes every repair super expensive on commercial buildings; This is unsustainable and it will cost Travelers and others to go out of business; Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana; The entire state of Florida is now upgraded to Miami Dade county hurricane code; It's too expensive and contractors will take full advantage of these insurance companies in 2024...trust me
Bro you've made me like $1,000 no joke. First with fluffy coin, now with this play. I forgot I did the same as you. Just checked it, and cashed out $300 profit a minute ago. Love it! hahahahaha
You should get on Graham Stephen for replying to your video back in July saying it wouldn't happen or follow through for you. He was completely wrong. It's taking time but already showing. Keep holding big breh. You're on to something
One main reason housing prices were constantly going up over the last decade is because annual newly built housing supply has not recovered to the pre 2008 boom and bust. For a decade, a fraction of the units that used to be produced annually were in actuality. Which is connected to the consistently dropping housing inventory. Populations have grown and become wealthier while housing supply has dropped. Plus, these new mortgage rates is only going to affect the buyers who bought the top, and would-be buyers. Aside from variable rate mortgages, most homes on the market locked in at the historically low rates of the last 8 years.
Biaheza talking about US dollar inflation rate, it's even worse out here in the UK. 1 gbp used to be worth 2 usd just 15 years ago. Now, they're almost equal
I was thinking of shorting the real state market through some sort of etf but I can’t find the right one. Even if the real state market did crash it doesn’t mean that reits will go out of business, they can keep charging rent and don’t have to buy more properties they can just wait until all of this is over. Does anyone know how I could short the housing market and not all the real state market?
Good luck getting out of those contracts. 134 OI and 0 volume today, DRV up 4% and the contracts didn't move a cent because no one is trading them. Best case scenario is you exercise the contracts when most of the extrinsic value has been sucked out, and dump the 1200 shares at the current market rate.
I guess the the high material prices that is used to build real estate might, have that effect, that real estate can stay at en quite high price because of demand, despite the higher interest rate
Thanks Biaheza that was a very interesting video I love how you try different things in each of your videos never being stagnant super original content.
There is no supply. In order for it to crash, mass people need to sell their homes. Everyone thinks it gonna be like 2008. 2008 was completely different. We crashed back then do to lending to buyers at 1% for the first 2 to 3 years, then it automatically converting to a fixed rate 30 year term, fully amortized at what the current rate would be at that time which was around 5%. Rates went up substantially and FORCED a foreclosure market, which lead to a TON of supply being sold at extremely lower prices which lead to huge price drops in value. Im in RE thats how I know and most people are just going off the feds hiking rates BUT are not understanding the difference from 2008.
I agree with your ideas of housing becoming an issue and prices needing to stabilize by falling. Where I disagree is the idea of the U.S wanting to keep a strong dollar. We are already seeing the effects of the dollar being too strong relative to other currencies, GBP and JPY, both needed to step in to control the fall. With that being said, the U.S would not let their trading partners money burn to hell without at least trying to step in. However, I think we are in for a rude awakening when we look at larger timeframes.
So is there a solution here? Like is there something else the feds can do to keep the dollar alive while still raising interest rates and cooling down the market or no? - I've seen a lot of info online that the fed is going to keep raising interest rates and will continue to do it as high as they will need to in order to keep inflation down, so basically what options do the feds have left right now to not let their trading partners money burn to hell?
@@Turkilyaz thats the issue, where does it end? The recent jobs report is showing that the FED is going to be more aggressive and that will lead to unemployment increasing (which will let them ease off on rate hikes). This is why something must/will break, the FED can raise interest rates and cause the fall of many other currencies OR the FED has to ease the rate hikes and the “bubble” keeps inflating.
@@Unbeweaveable It’s probably really unlikely that they will start to ease on the rate hikes right, because they even said themselves they’re not near where they want to be so even if they have to go through the turmoil they’ll do it is what I’m assuming. But then again, do we think that the fed will allow something to break at this point with midterm elections coming up or are they going to make it seem like they will calm down in October and let the “bubble” keep inflating until after November and then get back to being aggressive
Ayo I've been trading DRV when it was around the $50s mark. It's been ascending quite sometime and nothing is gonna slow it down if we continue to see these interest rates keep going up like it's no tomorrow. Maybe our positions will give us enough cash flow to buy a crib when the market is down
generally in history, the month of october has always been a good month for stocks, whereas september has always had a history of being a bad month. Seeing that we're in this particularily strange and peculiar senarior, you might be able to make a profit through the month of october. yet i strongly doubt it. I believe you should merely sell the option. Claim the profits. And perhaps reinvest the profits
I was planning on investing on a short rental property in central america, what do you think about real state outside US? Am planning on getting a deal by subleasing part of a bigger terrain, but I also have the cash to pay for the totality of the terrain, so am not sure what to do, would love your opinion.
Don't invest in things in real estate that you can't see or control they can charge you thousands in repair of roof etc and return will be 0%on your money get in 4plex in usa
Only thing you didn't look into is mortgage backed securities. Aka the thing that makes mortgage rates go up and down. But that's the main reason why real estate will dwindle. As the fed bought them up during 2020 and let them expire but now they are committed to selling off the mbs
