I love that you brought up Vegas for the week to week but I’ll add onto that. This year I was in 5 leagues, made 4 finals & won 3 leagues. One of the biggest things I learned in draft season is to use Vegas preseason yard lines on players to help rank them. Like you said Vegas is wayyyy better at this then any old fantasy analyst. You’d be blown away what a difference it is, a guy like mike Evan’s was projected way higher by Vegas receiving line then he was in fantasy drafts, meaning when you go and grab him he’s a massive steal. It was a huge advantage.
Yup, absolutely. Vegas is a great proxy for season yards. Very useful for picking between two players, but, as you know, not better than you or me at really nailing exact numbers for season
When you say “use Vegas preseason yard lines on players”….do you mean Draft Kings?? Or a certain website? I started my first fantasy draft this past year and got 5th.
The thing is those old fantasy guys are better at projecting sleepers. Which Vegas is terrible at. I didn’t need Vegas to tell me Mike Evan’s would be his old self.
Agreed. Beyond the draft, the two most important things in my mind is waiver wire strategy and consolidation trades. If you can hit on free agents consistently, those turn into trade peices and it’s a gradual level up until playoffs. Most people don’t understand the value of a roster spot.
@@RobertSmith-ow5kf yes but some people don’t see a need on their team at a position and choose not to pick up a player. Always get as many assets as possible. I had Lamar, picked up CJ Stroud to trade him for Tank Dell
Being forced to hit the wire for RBs heavily during playoffs allowed me to win it all. Chandler and Zhamir White were available and I was forced to start them and they did great. Having Lamb and AmonRa helped too haha
I also was a happy Chandler owner when I was without Mostert and Pacheco down the stretch. Him and Aaron Jones held their own. Everyone laughed when I took Mostert in the 6th round. He ended up second to only CMC in RB scoring.
One thing I've learned over many years of playing fantasy, is that "reaching" is fine, as long as you get the player you want, especially if he's a proven commodity. All I care about is how close my final draft roster looks to my realistic goals. You can't expect to get Justin Jefferson and Cee Dee Lamb on the same draft roster. I am willing to "reach" to get a player I want and that's what has put me over the top in fantasy.
I couldn’t agree more! That’s an underlying theme for the points in the video- figure out the guys to reach for and just go for it. A step early is key.
@@josevillegas1626 I had JK Dobbins in a lot of leagues, ohh the pain. I really thought that 2023 was going to be a big year for him. Look at the Ravens today, he was supposed to be a cowbell back for them. Man, he would have been awesome. Well, at least he did pretty good in week 1 before he got hurt for the season, lol. I hope he comes back strong but I won't draft him unless I can get him at the right spot. Of course, other people will probably take a chance on him and then he'll be great all year, lol. That's just how fantasy goes a lot of the time. Yeah, I had Keaton Mitchell too but he was strictly insurance for Breece Hall and JT, I didn't really play him. I didn't get Chubb in any leagues this year but he is a monster when healthy. Good luck next year brother. 🙏👍
The odds thing is so simple but so genius You got a sub from me This was actually my first year playing fantasy football and I was in a league with guys who have been playing forever and I managed to win the championship (by less than a point) Fantasy just adds so much entertainment value to football and gives me a reason to care and enjoy watching and keeping up with things that I otherwise wouldn’t. Although if my team was doing really bad it would take away that enjoyment cus I would have no reason to care about anything but my team. So I want to make sure I do good next year too so keep these videos coming dropping gold nuggets like this and I will stay tuned in for sure!
@@ScottLevyYT thanks brother! I got really into it and made some good moves. And for the draft I did a lot of research and made a flow chart to determine what I would do and who I would target in early rounds. Of course there was some luck involved with cmc not getting injured and ceedee lamb doing so well
Taking notes from the previous year is a must. Can be a quick list. I also think a key is holding onto players you believe in. Gibbs this year started off so bad and in previous years I might have dropped him. Instead this year I held onto him and it paid off. Great video
Who's on your list for next year? With each passing game I think I'm going for Rashee Rice earlier and earlier. Might be early second rounder for me next year... like Lamb this year.
This sounds dumb, but this is my first time ever doing fantasy football. When you say Vegas, is this a website or an app? Or are you referring to betting apps such as draft kings, fan duel, etc
I like the strategy of targeting the players next year that you didn’t want to play against by the end of this year. Multiple Lions in that category for me (St. Brown, LaPorta, Gibbs), but that team and others like the Cowboys can be pretty significantly impacted by how many indoor games are on their schedule so something to keep in mind. Agreed about r/fantasyfootball .. didn’t even visit that sub until the week before my semi-final match and wound up losing that week😢. Still took 3rd place but groupthink seems like false reassurance when it comes to actually making start/sit decisions.
Agreed about lions. LaPorta is a guy I’ll probably take *super* early next year, like maybe even late second round, but also paying attention to if all of the groupthink shifts to him, there are guys like kittle who could be great pickups later, or even kmet depending on bears offseason. Another guy I took note of that could be worth taking a little too early (vs not getting him) is zay flowers. Would love to bring the trio of st brown, rashee rice, and zay flowers into any week. Pick up some RBs like tyjae spears later
I’d say a major component to season long leagues is you have to understand roster construction as a whole. This is completely different from dynasty, as that game is a little more predictable, but there’s some pretty easy guidelines to building a winning team in season long. If I have Josh Allen at QB, I don’t need a backup. If you roster another guy scoring like a QB1 but already have a hammer (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts). You need to trade the other QB right away. That’s just throwing away a roster spot and not capturing WAR for a solid piece who could help you down the stretch at RB/WR. If I have Kelce at TE (I know he’s washed but used him as an example), I don’t need another backup TE considering the position scores so bad outside of the top 3/4 guys compared to RB/WR. Last but not least, unless you’re in a dynasty league, season long is a game of high variance, especially with leagues that still have defense/kickers. If I take 3 guys with decent floor in the first 3 rounds, I need to shoot for upside towards the ends of my drafts. Upside meaning: has a clear path to a lot of carries/targets, on a good high scoring offense, and usually has more athletic potential than washed known veteran commodities. Especially in the 9th+. You’d be stunned at how easy this is to avoid. Seriously. Why did Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham have 9th round ADPs this year? Also, don’t be afraid to churn and burn your later round picks through waivers. Values change by the hour during the late August/early September window.
I like the idea of focusing on using your roster spots most effectively. For me, storing guys with high upside is always the issue. For example, I had moss and spears this year on my bench just in case Taylor/henry got injured OR I needed a higher floor. But we play with only 5 bench spots total, so stashing gets super expensive.
Every year for the past 10 or so years, I've endured at least 2-3 different leagues and I've always tried to keep pretty similar teams if I was able to so that way it was less managing on my end... lazy, I know... My teams have always stunk This year I played in 4 leagues and told myself I was going to switch it up and try to get different guys all over the place. 1 winner, 2 runner-ups, out of 4. Taking emotions and bias out of it really helped me have a pretty dang good year in fantasy. Hoping to carry the momentum into the seasons to come.
Used the waiver wire a TON, and made great trade at start of year with someone with 3 top tier WRs…I was lucky to get Kyren off waivers and CD in a trade. Those 2 along with Breece, Mostert, and Aiyuk won me the league.
@@ScottLevyYT EXACTLY what happened…crazy lucky but I now look like a genius. Guy had CD, Chase, and ARSB. I actually went for Chase first and he countered with CD.
Good tips! In my league this year, I was the second highest Point For team and missed the #1 spot but I didn't even make the playoffs, if I had I would have killed it, but I lost one too many games and didn't even make the playoffs. I experienced the perfect storm where on some of my best weeks I was matched up against the top scoring team. I may score 187pts but my opponent may score 195pts. Also, what killed me is I didn't may attention to the bye weeks. There were weeks where my opponent may have only scored 120 point and because I had RBs available that week, even though I was a RB heavy team. So, I am going to use your tips and be prepared to factor in bye weeks next year once the schedules come out.
Was 12-2 this year had 1st round bye, then following week. Diggs, Etienne, Deebo and Kamara all hoed me so damn hard it hurt so bad. My wr core was stacked, with Diggs, Deebo, ASB and Kirk. But losing Kirk and then once OC got fired in Buffalo Diggs dissappeared. I was furious, the sheer luck of losing to an 8-6 team and 2nd best team who was 9-5 won it all. I was had most PF by like 500 and least PA by like 300. Like your tips
Even though it goes against the grain, I love Chris Olave and Drake London this year in addition to Jameson Williams. I have all 3 finishing in the Top 15 in full PPR formats.
I loved the point of remember the guys that scared you at the end of this year for next year. Aj brown was on my list and so was st brown. Getting both with no RB but then trusting mostert and james cook did ok for me haha.
I was doing ok for myself my first 16 years and then in 2020 I got anchored on CEH and took him over king Henry w I think the fourth overall. I later started reading about how we make decisions and that’s how I learned about anchoring. So now I read the “experts” w a new mindset
@@ScottLevyYT where your brain gets anchored subconsciously on something based on when or how that thing came to be known. In my case I had read something about how Andy Reid running backs are good to have so when my turn to pick came up and espn had him on the screen along w Henry and others I went CEH
You’ll be shocked how the analyst groupthink will change things heading closer to season. Ceedee slipped to me at 15th overall and I think he may have gone further!
Great advice. I also agree with go with your gut and not listen to the consensus. The only time I'm listening to consensus is when it has to do with players to grab in the late rounds. It's easy to scout the best of the best but I like to here from others on sleepers that have been getting hype in the preseason like a puka nacua.
Thank you! Before I started paying attention to my own notes, I’d use Reddit for the technical analyses. But the problem is that’s all historical looking and fantasy is about finding guys that will improve through the season and punch above their weight. Almost like you need to predict what the draft will look like mid season and aim your picks for that, even if it feels really early in beginning of season. Agreed about news from preseason. People underrate preseason big time.
I only won 1 chip in 11 seasons but my teams are always top 4 seeds. Sometimes my week 17 team is completely different compared to week 1. Alot of times due to injuries. My best take is to shop the Free Agency on a weekly basis because there's always steals like Josh Gordon, rookies, or 2 or 3rd year players who have break out seasons
This use to happen to me alot. The change is this look at how many wins you'll need to need to get into the play offs and hopefully get them as quickly as possible. Hopefully you have pretty good odds BEFORE the trade deadline. Then plan for that, in years past I've traded better players on me team for guys with better playoff schedules, I've unloaded guys with a later bye week to a team that I will play against on a later bye week. I'll stash a defense later in the year so I have two defenses to choose from later in the year. To many people want to build the ultimate sexy team that has the most wins on the season. It doesn't matter if your team has 14 wins in the regular season or 8 what matters is winning the last games of the season. A few years ago when Monty was still a bear I traded for him despite him only having an okay season because his last 5 weeks of the year where all against terrible run defenses. So come play off time he had such an easy schedule he was putting up big points on my playoff run. Secure your playoff spot with reasonable but not perfect odds. Then start risking immediately wins to gain advantages come playoffs. You want guys with easier playoff match ups and you want guys on teams who are hunting for playoff spot more than you want a guy on a team who is likely gonna lock up the 1 seed and start limiting their stars during the fantasy playoffs to keep them fresh for the actual NFL playoffs.
2 for 1 trades!! It's about pts above replacement. Go get that great player, even if it costs you two assets. Think about the value of the waiver wire pickup you'll make when accessing the value of the deal.
I won the last two years in a row, last year I missed on picks 3 4 and 5 but thankfully I had swift, mostert, pacheco and Howell late in my superflex league. I was able to flip a few of them for Ceedee Lamb and get a league winning stack with Dak Prescott. I think the transactions you make after the draft are just as important.
I keep looking around for solid draft advice, and this video just seems to be the most real to me. I would like to suggest that you should definitely do more fantasy content. Im interested in your opinion on how I should attack my draft at slot 6 in a 12 man half ppr league. My draft prep feels weird from last year and I'm a bit afraid to reach on guys that are going higher than usual. Just want to hear your opinion
@@BillsMafia1714_ thanks for the nice comment. I think I’m going to lean more into Vegas this year than years past looking at season odds. 6 is a great pick. I’d be most concerned with 1,2,3. I’ll say generally, before doing any research myself, that the last few years I’ve waited til the fifth round to get my first ‘ok’ RB, and both turned out to be fantastic (Jacobs in 2022, and Pacheco in 2023), but that’s when people always took RBs early and there were good one available after everyone had drafted their 2. If that changes and people go WR this year like they did RBs last year, I’ll probably do the opposite and take a guy like Taylor later than he should go. I do draft a lot by what I mentioned in the video: would I be scared to play this guy? If yes, I’ll take him. If meh, I’ll pass.
Two things I gotta add - if you want to do dynasty and/or are confident in your player evaluation abilities then scout as much college football as you can because this has led to me getting steals in the last 4 rounds of every draft for the last 4-5 years. Puka was one of those guys this year, I was a year early on Kyren (got em both in dynasty), Khalil Shakir, Antonio Gibson are more examples of these guys for me. People don’t know how to judge rookies or don’t know them like Puka or Kyren, it is a massive advantage The other thing is Vegas preseason lines are great too, good indicator of who the fantasy community is sleeping on or overrating
@@ScottLevyYT The only thing stopping Caleb from being great is the bears messing it up as usual, which i am hoping for as a packers fan. Dude can make every throw, from any base and arm slot, and knows he can, he is a very arrogant passer so like Josh Allen. But like Josh Allen, he will need to know when to hunt for the big play vs staying on script vs taking the checkdown. He has a wonderful feel for the pocket, knows when to bail vs step up or reset. Makes a lot of anticipation throws, more than the typical college qb and for me is the biggest indicator that he can improve his weaknesses which is pretty much anything mental/pre snap as struggled vs certain blitz and coverage looks, checked to the wrong protection call/route or just plain missed it but he has all the hero ball in him like fields but actually has the arm talent to make a ridiculous play like Allen/Mahomes/Rodgers. I dont think the Bears can or will break him, just hold him back from being great. He will be a solid but high variance starter on day 1 which is just about better than anything the Bears have ever had other than Cutler
@@josh_richards now this is a well-informed take...And you highlighted the number 1 non-starter: the bears will screw him up. Meanwhile my brother, who is a packers fan, loves to laugh at me when I talk about Fields' third year when Love is already much better. It's a vicious cycle. Do we want Caleb for the hope that he will be good but the inevitable disappointment when we ruin him?
@@ScottLevyYT I think it will be pretty hard, even for the bears, to ruin him. He has the best arm talent, strength + accuracy + release, since T Law and Stafford before him and both havent lived up to their #1 potential but you take that qb every day of the week because you can win a super bowl with him. I dont see a world in which he goes down the Darnold, Wilson, etc route because he is infinitely more talented than them. The only way he regresses into a bad qb from a solid qb is if he loses his mind, even if he gets injured like an ACL and loses some of that creativeness outside the pocket, he can very well be a Stafford just with the arm and pocket presence. It just matters how he grows mentally because right now he looks like 2019 Josh Allen who has obviously grown into a top 5 QB
Good video. My strategy now is to never follow “gurus” blindly. I lost my league cuz I drafted Davante Adams and Mark Andrews and my weekly streaming defenses
Yup, I made that mistake so many times, going against my better instincts to side with ‘experts’. Gotta win and lose based on who we think is the best, and us alone!
Hi Scott love the video. I've been playing fantasy football since early 90's and always thinking the analytics were lacking and I think you're onto something with your vegas calculations. If you are interested in pursuing that and developing an easy lookup calculation table to monetize you're idea please reach out to me. I think we can develop something to sell for players to use easily. Thanks.
Thanks for kind words! I just use DraftKings for looking stuff up, it’s free. And while it’s manual it only takes a few minutes each Sunday. If you haven’t taken a look at their player prop odds, there’s great organized info there!
my draft could’ve won me my league, but I made dumb trades mid season. I planned to go WR heavy in my full ppr league, and did just that. Drafted 12 of 12, got Lamb, AJ Brown, and Keenan Allen first 3 rounds. ended up getting rachaad white, mostert and najee as my rbs. drafted laporta 14th round. traded away ceedee and rachaad early for bad players cause of their slow starts to their seasons. ended up getting 4th🗿
Bummer - I would’ve traded Lamb early but told myself no matter what I’m not trading away top guys that I believed in until…well… maybe ever. I probably would’ve held Bijan and pollard this year, for the worse, but got lucky that I didn’t have them. Great draft tho!
I’ve also won 3 out of last 4 years in a super competitive 12 man league and 2 years in a row in my 8 man league (lost in championship this year by 4 points because I forgot to swap out injured Josh Jacob’s lol). So total 5 out 8 in last four years I’ve won. I’ve noticed some things I do are: 1.) I never really value the perceived big scorers, I focus on quieter guys that have been traditionally consistent. I value consistency over high scoring ability. 2.) I always draft balanced and start with RB, WR, TE, RB/WR, RB/WR, QB. Oddly always get predicted to win in draft grades or to place high. I never valued those and maybe it’s a good guess by the system. 3.) The draft doesn’t mean anything to me most people end up hurt by mid point. Those first 3-4 weeks are crucial to watch out for players that weren’t even drafted that are going to blow up. Watch highlights like your life depends on it. I eat because of the waiver wire. 4.) I highly value K, DEF, and DEF players. They’re silent backbones. Kickers and defenses can put up 15-20 points. Defenses in my opinion are the easiest to predict a good matchup because top defenses usually play to their ranking. A #1 receiver can get shut down often, I feel like it’s more likely a good defense plays…..good. 5.) This is the most important to me, target players based off their fantasy rankings. I always try to have someone who is in the top 20 of their fantasy position, even over a good matchup. I put an absurd value on positional fantasy rankings (yahoo, NFL, espn, etc.) 6.) luck. Even with all that said I think there is a huge amount of luck involved. However, I didn’t even break top 3 in a league my first 10 years then when I followed these tactics I started winning multiple leagues every year. Good luck next season everyone!! It’s so fun! I’m gonna start a fantasy podcast with my wife next season. (She’s really good).
Took AJB/Lamb with the 12/13 picks in my 3 WR half ppr league then traded for Amon Ra around week 9. Although AJ wasn’t that great 2nd half of the year he held the fort down before Lamb went insane along with Amon Ra I won the title. Everyone’s always saying “you have ti get a RB you won’t pick for awhile again” when my it’s been shown you can find RB value throughout the draft and on waivers.
@@ScottLevyYT My friend was struggling really hard with injuries including losing Chubb early then it snowballed. so I convinced him to do a 2 for 1 for Amon Ra that was Waddle/Javonte. Sold him on Javonte having back to back nice weeks and Waddle wasn’t a total bust yet and had some solid games right before the trade. Absolute steal for me and worked out better than I even thought it would.
My bestball teams if I picked 10th or later I always tried to get Brown, Lamb, St Brown, 2 of the 3. If I got Brown first and the other 2 weren’t there I then just would take Hurts. So most of the time I did take Brown first if he was there so I had that option always available. I had that written down to be my strategy at the end of last season and I stuck to it and it worked pretty good.
@@ScottLevyYTGarrett Wilson is my Brown for 2024... Scott, how do I get you in my league? My 14th place gets eliminated so we have a slot. 4x IDPs, 1 keeper, short bench, deep rosters. A true test of your skill. ... we draft in June.
@@demetrisprewittSQ1CM thank you for the invite!… but I only do one league per year. I’m with you on Wilson. He might slide to late second or third. I’ve mentioned in other comments but I like rashee rice and zay flowers
Liked the video, something I recommend is have some patience with your guys, don’t rush and drop them after a bad week 1 or 2 performance because they can go off mid-back half of season.
Awesome stuff! 👏🏾 first time here and just subscribed. I drafted last in a 14 team league and went CeeDee/Amon Ra. St Brown…third round I grabbed Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow with my 4th pick. This was a new strategy for me because I was always a heavy Rb guy 😂. I used my first waiver priority and grabbed Puka after week one. Those 3 won me the SHIP CeeDee/St. Brown and Puka. Lastly, yahoo always graded my draft with a D- 😒😂
@@ScottLevyYT they sure was! Since I drafted last I had the number one waiver 1 priority so I was able to pick up Puka with it 😆. I also had Tank Dell because someone dropped him when he was out a few weeks
I got into the finals in 4 of the 5 leagues I was in this year and won 3 of the 4. One of those league championship wins was a back to back Championship. The waiver wire was big for me and I don’t listen to “expert advice” on who to start, I do my own research instead.
Interesting. I will look into using Vegas a lil' more. The situations are very crazy the last few weeks, with QB issues, injuries and playoff race conditions. Those injuries were killer, as I had one team with Jefferson, Kupp, Evans, Addison, Etienne, Josh Allen, Conner, LaPorta, Achane, Warren, etc. During week 1, I acquired Kyren and Puka....but Jefferson, Kyren and Conner were all out around the same time, and Achane wasn't fully used. I should have dominated more, so I had to plug in others from week to week. I eventually won. But could have had more W2W money.
My team: QB - Justin Fields/Jared Goff RB - Raheem Mostert RB - Jahmyrr Gibbs WR - Tyreek Hill WR - Tank Dell TE - Travis Kelce FLEX - Puka Nacua Lost first round in playoffs to a Dak/Ceedee stack. I truly don’t know what a guy has to do.
Every time I’ve won a league, draft kings or another draft site will give me a low-grade on the team that I drafted. One thing that I do look at is potential playoff schedules so if I on the fence with drafting a guy I look at his playoff schedule, it’s help me out tremendously.
I won 3 out of 5 leagues this year, made playoffs in all of them, my biggest asset was honestly the early season wire, my misfit team after picking ekeler was Goff, Kyren, Puka, Deebo, Olave, and Najee with Jets D ended up winning me one
Alright! My team was good this year with those two. I think my best team of the three was last year with Jefferson, kelce, jacobs, fields, cooper, and then filled in with guys like foreman when he was on Carolina after mccaffrey trade
3:30. Im a fellow dude who always gets snubbed by ESPN grades to start the season. I usually get F-D's and end up at least in our 4 playoff spots (12 man, ppr, buy in). The one time I got a B grade it was my worst year and missed the playoffs by a mile. Its to the point I get hyped to get my terrible grade from ESPN so I know it will be a good year.
8:08 says Jefferson has already hit his career high and aging and says get ceedee Lamb but Lamb is the same age as JJ. In fact he’s a couple months older lol
Did you have Brock Purdy this year? I drafted him as my last pick to be my starting QB. Based on his last few games of 2022, I felt that he was the best value. But I still got lucky bc I got the 2-seed back on the last week, and if I hadn’t, I would’ve lost in 1st round. But then I scored 186 and 208 in semis and ship. I drafted AJ Brown, Bijan, Breece, Pacheco, Ridley, Amari, Puka, and Zay Flowers. My rookies hit big, and I picked up Achane the morning he scored 51. Super lucky. And then got McBride bc I had Ertz and needed a TE. Then picked up Aubrey as my kicker, and he had an amazing season. So very lucky season. This was probably the best team I’ve ever had. So many waiver wire gems hit. ESPN said I was the worst team in the league after the draft. Went 21-7 regular season and finished 2 out of 12 then won it all. 5th title. One hand complete.
Sounds like you nailed both draft and waiver wire, which should help take some of the ‘luck’ out of winning. That’s a great team - stacked across the board.
U can draft the best team but yeah at the end of the day it’s about luck with injuries and matchups week to week. In my mind I drafted one of the top teams this yr but only won 3 games💀 in my 10man league. I drafted a similar team in my 12man league and got 3rd place so luck does play part in having a good season
So much luck - injuries is first thing to get lucky with (not having any) and then head to head can be really lucky. I like to think of top points for season as a good judge of success if players aren’t injured
I finally won one of my main leagues this year, in large part due to CeeDee, but like you I drafted AJ R1 and Lamb R2, I eventually traded away AJ Brown and got Puka from waivers and Amari, I needed a RB so I ended up getting KW3 and Rachaad White, and Bijan later on, my team fired on all cylinders after week 6 losing only one game, I was scared going into my championship game because I was up against AJ Brown, Gibbs and CMC😮💨
Im good at fantasy, have gotten the bye 2/3 last years. Had cmc, tyreek, josh allen and a couple good pieces. Sometimes you just get unlucky, faced amari cooper this year and knocked me out. Just the way it goes sometimes.
100% agreed. For me, the biggest test of your team (assuming no bad luck where someone gets injured) is high points for the season. Securiing the bye is nice too, but even that has a big luck component. But nothing is a better tell for a team than high points over 13-14 weeks.
In both leagues i played in this year, I lost both. The vegas tip is great insight. Maybe I would’ve won if used vegas and started Terry Mclaurin over Ekeler
Glad you found it helpful! Not sure who Vegas would’ve bet on there… my guess is actually ekeler because RB1s generally have better odds at TDs, but who knows
I think being a medium level NFL fan helped me win my league. I pay attention but I’m not heavily involved in everything. I missed on a couple guys but I just did some “hey I think he’ll be decent cause I know he’s been good” (getting Amon Ra and Amari) and just applying normal logic even though it might not have worked out that way in the end (“Oh I think the Texans will pass the ball a lot cause they’ll trail in a lot of games and I think Stroud will be decent, let’s take him as our backup QB since Mahomes is a reliable QB1 and go with Nico Collins for a stack in the 11th and 12th” and “man I think Miami will be leading a lot and look to keep a million reps off Tua so I think Achane in the 10th is an okay play”). I got insanely lucky at the end though, was trailing like 108.98-108.76 when the Chiefs decided to pick up 3 sacks to end the Cincy game and won 111-109
I won my league after being in 4th or 5th place all year. I squeaked into the playoffs, squeaked into the championship and put up 155 to beat the man who was in first place for 13 straight weeks. I lucked out and had my highest scoring week of the year in the final week. Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins both had 30 pt games. Josh Allen had 20 something. I was without mostert and Pacheco and ended up getting decent numbers from Aaron Jones and ty chandler. I had to flex DHop and play Trey McBride because Kittle didn’t play. I was without 3 of my usual starters and had the second highest score in the entirety of our 10 team season. I call it half skill, half luck. Just so happened to be a great 3 week stretch for me when it mattered most. I haven’t won a league in years going back to when my team was lead by CMC’s breakout year, Drew brees, AB and Juju, James Conner starting for a held out Lev Bell, Adam Theilen and some other guys. It feels good to be on top and get my name etched into the trophy once again. The money and bragging rights are fun, but being engraved in the trophy is something our sons will be proud of when they’re the ones passing it amongst each other.
That last parts exactly right! Our seasons were similar, although the only overlap in players is Pacheco. But hockenson, Pacheco, Zack moss getting injured in our finals week put my dad 3 of my normal players. Another difference is unlike your team doing well, I just got lucky that my opponent sucked. Congrats on the big win! Never gets old to win one of these and get the name on there!!!
I've led my league in scoring 3 out of the last 4 years and havent won it once. This year I was the #1 scoring team but led in points against by a lot and didnt even make the playoffs. Idek how that is possible. I like the advice, fantasy is just so tough overall to win
Can’t say for sure right this minute, but it would be really hard to not draft him 1. Id probably also look at season prop bets on draft kings to see what they project for his season vs some of the other top guys
It was tight for me this year - thankfully CMC team got knocked before playoffs, and I played Kamara, Purdy, Deebo in finals and they all had off weeks. Luck helped me finish strong!
@ScottLevyYT I drew CMC in the championship game and my opponent also had Keenan Allen who couldn't go. Definitely some luck but we did earn the 1 seed!
Sure, I might do sleepers that I’m targeting after draft prep comes out next year. For example, highlighting guys who are ranked in the third round from experts but I’d take in the second, etc…
I won 7 titles in the first 11 years of a very competitive 6 keeper league. The first year had 8 people then we expanded to 10 for the next 7 years then we expanded to 12 for the last 3 years and counting. Of the 4 years i lost, 3 of them i lost in the championship. Best fantasy run of all time
I won 3 championships this season. Truly much of it is luck staying clear of injury. The main things that have always helped me to win multipe leagues is working the waiver wire - knowing rookies - and playing matchups. Do plenty of mock drafts going into your actual draft. This is important because if you go into a draft saying you'll only draft certain players the moment one is taken from you you need to not panic pick. Doing multiple mock drafts will get you accustomed to having players snatched right out from under you and having a smart 2nd option. P.S - if your league has kickers and and defenses take those seriously. They can truly end up being the difference between a win or loss.
Luck yes...but I think there is skill. I am hitting on about 25% of my leagues. I do like the Vegas tip for comparisons. I had several start sit questions that were tough this past year.
It's definitely not a silver bullet - there have been a few instances that I lost big (for example, chris rodriguez jr in the finals)...although for the most part I'm happy, which is why I keep doing it. One of the best parts is to not overthink it and drive myself crazy with who to play - more objective this way and overall pretty good.
3 in a row means you’re doing something right! If it’s a 12 person league, if you were just ‘lucky’ the odds would be 0.05%, which implies it’s not just luck. What’re your secrets?!
@@ScottLevyYT Mine is also a 12 man league. I follow a lot of the same you do. I also make my own decisions and don't listen solely to the experts. I mainly listen for their info. For instance, I would had have no idea that Stroud told the Texans to draft Dell, but after hearing that, I added him immediately.
I made some terrible moves. I had a great draft and would have won but didnt even make the playoffs. Towards the end I traded dak, ceedee, mike evans, rachaad white, etc in seperate trades and got diggs, hill, mcbride, breece hall, etc
I’ve won 3/6 years. Had really bad luck this past year. QB play KILLED and this year. I don’t draft QB very high and it’s helped me win numerous years drafting then low. I drafted Joe Burrow in the 7th and he absolutely killed me. I replaced him with Fields and he went down too🤦♂️
Last few years I made a point to draft QBs early. I think it's really hard to win without a great QB. Our final 4 were Dak, Mahomes (bad year but still good), Purdy, and Fields. Terrible luck for you with burrow
Who do you like for this year? I remember Tank Dell being someone I didn’t want to play against but now the Texans have Diggs. Feels like a really weird off-season
I'm not sure how many people play in the same league with the same guys every year, but I don't think most people take their competition into consideration enough when drafting. Quite a few guys in my league have somewhat predictable "tendencies" with their drafting style. I draft against the competition, not for the best available person. For me, it's not always about the best person available as that person may be still available the next round. However, if I want a certain person, I better pick him before my competition does even if the "experts" say it would be a reach at that given round. I know who likes to stack receivers, I have a good feeling about what round quarterbacks are going to start getting drafted, I know which few guys pick with their heart and are willing to reach for certain players or players from a certain team. I take all that into consideration when I make a pick.
Most of these things you said I started chuckling. Not because I thought it was bad or funny.. But because I do the same thing and won the last 3 years. The whole age thing is spot on except there are a few ageless wonders that just are worth the risk vs having your opponent get them. If anything using them on your bench and for certain matchups just to win may be better. Talking about guys like Mike evans who I was happy to get this year. Allen who he may have got hurt but that boy when out on the field was catching everything from Herbert, and last guy I would only use as my WR4 since my league has huge starting spots. Adam Thielen is that lucky guy. Of course I would love to have as my main 3 WR’s Nico or tank dell, Zay or Reed, and then I’d be happy with evans or Allen. And then for WR 4 Adam it rice. WR5 can be someone who I know will be a beast if he just gets more playing time and that’s Josh downs. I love streaming RB’s after a major injury to a starter. They just seem the most likely to pop off. Probably because they are playing for something to prove.
Same page exactly. You’re right… I always overlook that there are a few guys who just seem ageless and are worth picking up. I was thinking about that this year for next year. I think guys like diggs and metcalf will fall to ridiculous rounds, like Evans this year. Metcalf or diggs in the fifth or 6th and I’m drafting. Edit: ‘drafting’ instead of ‘buying’ so no one thinks I’m in an auction draft 😂
@@ScottLevyYT haha you are good 😂 I also sometimes “ballzy” choices when I draft at times. For example: sometimes there is a player I know I want but I know there is a good chance if he goes to the wrong draftee team they will just drop him so I’ll just pick up the other guy I may need more positions on. This was Elliot for me this year. I was like ya I could get him but I bet you someone will drop him because he’s not the starter. They sure did. I would much rather pick up those extra guys from my notes for deeper rounds with my FAAB dollars than potentially miss on a roomie or a gem who has a better position around them. I gave some of my league mates some tips and tricks because they where getting mad at me winning. I said do you guys even study or make your own lists? It look at our updates scoring and league format? No? Ok that’s why. This year we have everything you can imagine a 14 man league having. And the TE premium is really nice at 2.25 so you know I’ll be taking shots at TE’s and picking up WR’s who are ageless or consistent or rookies
@@ScottLevyYT facts. I’ll happily win $1500. Oh question. Do you do keeper leagues? If so when should I set up everyone’s keepers. We do keepers a little differently but wanted some intel. Also ngl I could tell you where a cool dude because you end your playoffs on week 16. As a fellow week 16 enthusiast I support you.
I've won the last two years using trades to get stacked WRs. This year in separate deals I managed to turn C. Watson, Gus Edwards, David Montgomery and Diggs into Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, D. Swift, Aaron Jones and DK. It's all about just buying and selling at the right time and avoiding injuries as best you can, which is part of the luck factor.
Swift seems to be someone that was traded early. Happened in my league. A guy traded swift for kupp, trying to get ahead for playoffs… but then swift never stopped and kupp never really started, so it was a disaster
I crushed it this year because I got a great team in draft already but picked up people like puka, LaPorta, stroud, rice, pacheco. By the time I cut the fat of mr draft (g.wilson!) And picked up these guys, it was over!
For three years in a row, I've been decimated by injuries right before or right at the playoffs. My drafts, trades, and waiver wires are always the best in the league until December. I've always been first in overall scoring. I lost the championship the first year, the semis last year, and the first round this year. Is this indicative of a personal weakness or is it just bad luck? Does my strategy need to change? Every year I nail every running back worth a damn, fail on receivers, then nail the rest of the positions (I predicted Bortles, Burrow, Purdy, and Stroud before they got super good - I had Cleveland and Dallas at various points, and I picked Hockenson when Kelce was available). This year my best receiver was Tank Dell, then Christian Kirk and Chris Olave... why can't I nail receivers that are both good and don't get instantly injured?
Sounds like really bad luck. I have no idea on how to change strategy, but I *generally* like WRs cause they’re less impacted by injuries (but still are - look at JJ and Chase this year). My only suggestion is go for guys who were hot at the end of this season and a bit early next year and use your own judgement for WRs if you’re not already. The experts know no more than us and they blow a lot of smoke
