How Likely Is War Over Taiwan? 

Powerful Shermer with another great episode!

For anyone interested, this book takes a deep dive into the topic: "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China" by Hal Brands

wow, usually enjoy your interviews but really this time I found it was so cliché... this vision of the cold war and history in general is beyond naive and superficial... I had to five up when you asked (for the second time!) why Xi doesn't just buy stuff from Taiwan instead of wanted to invade... This level of ignorance of history/culture, whether or not you support Taiwan's autonomy's claim is crazy. I don't know even on Taiwanese that would ask this question nor think that it's only Xi that wants to reunite China with Taiwan! and well everything else on the cold war is at the same level... really dissapointed in this episode... stick to science or invite Mearsheimer to atone for your sin :) PS: I'm half serious of course, still interesting discussion but quite painful for anyone who's old enough and educated enough to challenge basically anything said on the cold war 1.0 and then be more than skeptic about the cold war 2.0 discourse...

You always ask the right questions Michael. Thankyou gentleman...

This is so interesting! Thank you for this engaging discussion! It very interesting to hear your thoughts and appreciate how you dialogue with each other.

Thank you for the interesting discussion! As someone who has not left Kyiv since the beginning of the war, I can say that many Western countries & producers have not stopped the delivery of their equipment that can be used in Russian missiles and Russian industry (there are so many reports about the military equipment found in Russian missiles bought after 2022 and used to bomb Ukraine). Thus, there will be similar "business as usual" with the Chinese companies in the case of Chinese war. Because ... yeah, those Western producers have workers, their workers have kids and those kids should be fed and live their happy lives. They don't care about a bunch of Ukrainian kids who lost their limbs or their lives because of that Western equipment. I don't believe the situation will change unless, probably, the Western parents having small kids whose lives they are are afraid to lose if something more serious happens, will actively protest against such "businesses as usual". Pretty much like the society protested against "dirty money" kept in some European banks (banks had no problems with those money, but the civil society had). Greetings from Kyiv and let's hope for seeing some rational behavior and strategic thinking in the society (don't think the politicians or such "business as usual" producers have it ;)).

I enjoyed the conversation, but I think these two are laying it on a little thick putting Trump in the same category as autocrats Putin and Xi Jinping, enough so that it hurts the credibility of the rest of the analysis.

The approach of refusing to trade would probably be more complicated than indicated here for several reasons. (1) What happens if the great innovation happens on their side of the wall, not ours? There does seem to be plenty of innovation happening there first already. (2) In the case of China, for various reasons, they are better at keeping trade secrets from us than we are at keeping them from them.

The 'machine that makes the chips' (the ASML EUV tool)...is only one step of the process, he's talking about the photo litho step/equipment (still need dry/wet etch, CVD, Diffusion, Implant, CMP, Metro etc etc). Saying it's the 'chip making machine' is showing how this guy literally knows nothing on how semiconductor fabs work, makes me question the rest of anything else he says...sorry-forever a skeptic ;)

Maybe Netanyahu wanted this attack because look at what he's done, all his goals for decades.

"This wouldn't have happened if we did x.." BS. This was destined to happen!

👏👏👏

In my opinion one should not invite someone for dinner if that someone has not much interest in other person feelings and interests.

❤

this one too is a thief “Al consciousness cannot exist | Markus Gabriel 10 months ago consciousness The Institute o...” typical British thieves (collective theft)!

The only language the US understands is force.