How low can COVID rates go? 

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Honesty, clear facts, no spin and no hyperbole. You and the team have help keep me and so many others informed with a level of trust not found anywhere else. An information lifeline. Thank you.

Thanks so much prof Tim you probably don’t realise how many people you have helped with your calm messages to us. Thank you from all of us. X

I like academics who have a Beano annual on their bookshelf. Great vid too.

you have been a rock of sound, sensible and science based knowledge throughout greatly appreciated.

The voice of reason throughout all this. Tim Spector, you deserve to be on the next honours list!

Thanks again Tim for all your hard work helping us through this .

Thank you Professor to you and all your team for the hard work done during the past months .

All I have ever wanted was honesty, thank you

Top man prof

Fantastic work much appreciated. Beano book 2000, one of the best.

Tim, I do hope that you write a book about the pandemic and how the research project was set up with team Zoe, etc, etc...when you get the time 😉 I for one will buy a copy. 👍☮️

I see a glimmer of light shining way OVER there!!!!!

Thanks as always Tim.

Can you see a point in Covid Marshalls for another 2 years - councils recruiting now?

Thank you Tim and team Zoe, great news about UK and pandemic down to endemic. BUT the rest of the world remains to be of significant concern, given that a variant can put UK back into pandemic status. Thank you, as always. 👍 ☮️❤️💙

Indoor eating in Scotland since Monday!

Thank you, Tim, for your balanced, calm reports each week. They have been a huge source of information and reassurance.

I have been faithfully filling out my (and my 83 yr old mom) Zoe research form everyday. Thank you for the opportunity to help.

Before we start hanging out the bunting, just remember that an awful lot of the world is in a very poor situation vis a vis covid and our borders leak like a soggy tea bag. We need to remain vigilant and stop pratting around with our border checking and quarantine.

It’s great to hear the positives are really starting to outweigh the negatives.

Can we please stop wearing masks now. It's getting a bit ridiculous.

Tim has been the only sane voice I have listened to since the start of the pandemic, he has a calming approach unlike our governments mixed messages, thank you Tim & Co.

I’m in Melbourne Australia, we got covid to zero with public health measures and it’s great to see the uk getting to a similar point with vaccines + public health measures. I’ve learned a lot about pandemics over the last year, two things that stand out for me are: * that mitigation actions (like mask wearing or vaccines) are cumulative and * that growth and contraction of virus numbers are exponential The contraction being exponential is what I think stuffed the uk. People saw the big drop in cases, assumed they’d won and took their foot off the pedal only to have numbers blow out. I think if the uk is to avoid another winter wave next year it really needs to focus on getting everyone vaccinated and perhaps even have a plan for what to do if there is an outbreak of a vaccine resistant strain. My biggest fear is that the vaccine roll out faulters as we get to younger people when there is very little virus around. I’m by no means an expert but I reckon that would then leave a little super spreading group at the bottom of the age pyramid, just waiting for the vaccine effectiveness to begin to wear off in the old age groups. I don’t think we’ll see a massive wave again but it would be enough just to keep covid going.

It seems the Zoe Covid app results have started to diverge significantly from the Government statistics, with Zoe showing cases continuing to fall, whereas the Government stats suggesting the number of cases are fairly static. Any idea why the difference?

Thanks to you , great news ! 😊

Thankyou Tim and team zoe, great news, always a great source of information and positivity. 👍💉🌷xxx

That is great news

Why go get tested if 1:45,000 chance of getting it? Worst case you say 5x ie 1:9,000 chance of getting it? (So false positive way more likely). Recommendations not consistent with the data ..I suppose just being politically correct ?

Another positive and realistic update, thanks Tim and team, keep up the good work

Thanks Tim for all your doing and to your team too 👍

Thanks for your updates - so helpful to hear directly from you. With risks so low now, I’m hoping that school children can stop wearing masks whilst seated in the classroom - it’s a big ask at that age. Uni students should also be able to get back to face to face teaching - they’ve been left behind even as non-essential shops open.

It does not have to be endemic, from here go to elimination strategy. You can do it. There are other countries that have done it long ago. We in NZ can travel to Australia with no quarantine and no chance of getting Covid. I want to be able to visit A UK with no daily cases this winter (summer there). We started of on UK's pandemic plan with UK's trajectory, but when we saw what Taiwan had done we said, "let's go for elimination". that was march 2020. If you don't, consider India, they also had the cases right down, look what's happening now. I know you have vaccinated far more but you could still have another outbreak and have as many deaths as you have had already again. In spite of the time between, UK has now got down to where NZ was ( UK 35 cases/M/day to NZ 30 cases/M/day) when we decided to eliminate it..

Professor Spector is the antithesis of the awful scaremonger Dr Campbell

Why've you got a bookcase in front of a corridor?

How do you explain the differences in your infection estimates and those of the official figures? You’re saying that infections are lower than when you started, but the official +ve test figures show a current infection rate at about the same as mid-Sept 2020. Could it be that your figures are based on a self selecting population, and therefore a sub-set that are probably more aware / careful?

What is behind that bookcase? Why is it there? It looks like it completely blocks off part of a room. I always think about it

Very happy to donate to a research team in which I feel such confidence and from which I’m deriving so much benefit. Thank you.

Thank you so much for your weekly updates, just the facts. You have no idea what that means to some of us.

So nice to hear some good news. Thank you so much.

The only health care professional I trust and listen to. The others are biased.

Thanks Tim. Your weekly updates are without government or media spin and are utterly brilliant. A sensible head actually telling us the real story. Thanks.

Please can you clarify what risk you are speaking about? Risk of catching Covid, risk of death?

My husband and I look forward to your fortnightly updates. Thank you for telling us just how it is. We no longer listen to data from anywhere else!

It surprises me a bit that cases are not starting to rise because tons of young people have been in the pub or outside the pub doing the normal things do in pubs. Being in the young age group, most won't be vaccinated, so what's going on? You might expect more young cases and fewer older people... Good news and the further down it goes, the better.

Is there something specific that has to happen for an epidemic to be declared?

Great news and much still to be seen going forward. I think the thing most important to take into account is how upwards and downwards pressures effect rates. We do still have a ways to go on both sides of the equation. As we approach a situation closer to what we remember as normality, with indoor mixing and large events etc, this will apply an upward pressure on infection rates. Conversely, as we move further with the vaccination programme, with the under 40s in standard demographics yet to be vaccinated and a large majority yet to still receive a second dose in older demographics, there is still also great potential for downward pressure on infection rates. What will define future life will be how that balancing act plays out. The really encouraging data which is now emerging is that those vaccinated but still infect shed lower viral loads, practically halving the likelihood they will ass the infection on. In epidemiological terms, the equates to the efficacy of the vaccines doubling in terms of their ability to reduce spread. If enough people are vaccinated, it is hard to imagine how SARS-CoV-2 will be able to stick around at all given the effective efficacy this will yield. It's a simple equation of once all restrictions are lifted and all vaccinations which are going to be administered have taken place, will the downward pressure exceed the upward pressure, or vice versa? If it's the former, then elimination is guaranteed. If it's the latter, then some level of restrictions will have to stay in place until either vaccines with even greater efficacy are developed, or prophylactic pharmaceuticals to further reduce transmission are brought onto the market. Although an endemic phase will be entered in the near term, I cannot see a perpetual balancing act with the aim of an acceptable low rate of infection is either sustainable nor tolerable. As long as SARS-CoV-2 is around to be dealt with, there will always be potential for flare ups getting out of hand. Particularly as the emergence of variants are always likely to erode vaccine efficacy. A "sweet spot" whereby SARS-CoV-2 is kept low enough not to return us to epidemic levels, but without elimination being achieved without things going either way is neither likely nor desirable. So long term endemic would be too narrow of a window likely to be attained with the consistency necessary to sustain such a balance.

Thank you so much for these reports and for all of this good work.

Don't get your hopes up soon they'll announce the Indian version has reached the UK and we'll have to go back into lockdown.

Thank you 🙏🏻

You only need to read comments sections to see that the next pandemic we need to deal with is ignorance and poor mental health. This is now an extremely serious issue especially in the western world.

Not only can we get Covid after a vaccine, but we can pass it on. Precautions still vital. Travel abroad can bring it in. My heart goes out to patients and families in India and countries in a similar situation.

Thanks Tim 🙏🏻. I know it’s a little selfish in the grand scheme of things but we are trying to organise a wedding after June 21st, this bodes well for that. Because I keep hearing different things from people, but I trust you! Just off for my 2nd dose of the vaccine.

Thank you again for all your hard work and plain talk.

Will you all (Zoe) or any organisation be doing any studies for people who have received both jabs but also have autoimmune illnesses that take immunosuppressive medications to check to see if we have produced enough or any antibodies? My husband and I log our daily health on the app. Thank you so much!

What an odd place for a bookcase...

Please can we have subtitles for hearing impaired. Thanks!

What a pity that Boris isn't following his data not days proposal no need for lockdown anymore rediculous to wait till June

Thanks for the update. Glad to see the numbers are plummeting from pandemic to endemic. Reasons to be cheerful!

ZERO, ZERO, ZERO outside transmission, why the muzzles ??? KEEP UP THE FEARMONGERING TIM, hell awaits you.

When you say moving from pandemic to endemic, it makes me think you don't know what pandemic means. It is already endemic, and us having low rates isn't going to change the fact it's a pandemic.

So after the recent optimism, aided with sensible caution... We are told that R rate is 1.1 YES ABOVE 1 The growth rate is -4% to -1% YES - ie below ZERO I am not devaluing statistics, but can someone explain why the R rate appears more alarming than growth rate? We are told that R rate is most important thing of all. 1.1 is obviously better than 2.5, but I just want to know where I stand. Ive been recording case numbers in a diary since January 2021 & I don't understand this rise, when I compare week on week. Others know more than me, so please enlighten and explain please. Is this roadmap really on course, or is this evidence that should Boris really delay the next restrictions being lifted?

Do you know where you would go if you died today? Heaven or hell? Jesus is the ONLY way to heaven (John 14.6). Simply by believing in Jesus and what he did at the cross to pay for all of our sins, past, present and future, you can be guaranteed eternal life. “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” John‬ ‭3:16‬ ‭KJV‬‬. He’s waiting, please don’t delay 💙

Thank you Tim for the data, the analysis and your reassurance...

Thanks for clarity and sound reason since last summer . Thanks to you Tim and the whole team.

Fantastic, continued work, and great , trustworthy communication which cuts through media hyperbole! Thanks to all Zoe team, for all you've done!

Thanks for keeping us informed with up to date information.

A million thank yous professor Tim for all you have done to keep us in the loop & personally help keep my sanity with your honest & informative covid19 weekly updates throughout these unprecedented & harrowing times. I think you are an absolute legend.

I would like to know who now are getting covid. Is it still older people over 80? Is it coloured people or Asian people? Are there more younger people than previously becoming infected? Or is it a mixture of everyone?

Prof Spector, do you know, how did the 31 people, who had the second vaccination, got positive result?

I expect the vaxxed to die off in waves given time due to neuro-degenerative adverse effects and possibly enhanced immunity over responses resulting in cytokine storms that will be blamed on 'variants' and the unvaxxed.

Love his reports so reassuring thank you so much

Thanks for another great update Tim. Well done to you and the team for such great research. I have happily donated to your ongoing research. A man who likes the Beano must be a great man😉

Very interesting and Informative but please stop the stay safe rubbish. Let's be realistic it's impossible to stay safe.

Another wonderful video from Prof. Tim. You and the team are doing great work. Thank you.

Wonderful stuff as ever, thank you so much. I have relied on these updates and I can't tell you how helpful they have been.

Thank you Tim and your team brilliant information your a lifeline.

With lateral flow tests, and their slight inconsistancies, along with really high test rates, possibly this is the lowest?

When will we know the impact of the vaccine on people who are immunio suppressed?

I don’t think covid will be over, I think there will be spikes and new variants

"The Beano Book" - outstanding!

Thanking you and the Zoe team

Thank you once again for clear information.

Adding to Biobank’s research. I’ll be sending a blood sample to them shortly to see if I have anti bodies. I had second jab earlier this evening.

When you say the risk is 1 in 45,000 ish, what does that refer to? Probability of being infected per day?

But surely with the protests over the Easter weekend the figures should be higher? What about in Bristol, are they high there?

A risk of infection of one in forty-five thousand, is that per day?

Your clear, common sense talks are much appreciated...Thank you. Can anyone give good guidance on wiping down shopping. For over a year we have been sanitizing our shopping. It's all we heard about at the beginning... do we have any news on this & how long the virus can stay on surfaces. Is all this still a problem?

Please tell the BBC

Do you have any information on the South African, Brazilian and Indian variants, the number of positives and/or cases of these in the UK? PS just to say that openness, honesty and a realistic assessment of the covid situation within the UK & globally is what people put a great value on.

Tim, you talk of risk, (1 in 100,000 etc) but don't say risk of what. Getting an infection? Being admitted to hospital? Death?

The older you are the smaller risk of adverse vaccine effects? I am 61 and was so ill after first dose of AstraZeneca that I am really scared to take the second dose!!!

These weekly updates are excellent.

Hopefully not going to go same way as India that also opened up

Thanks a lot. God bless you.

Word on the ground in India is that the new varient is managing to escape the AZ vaccine and in some cases and people who have had covid before are getting re-infected. There are also cases in Israel of fully vaccinated( with Pfizer) people still getting infected. We need more data and an updated booster jab underway as soon as it becomes available.

As far as I'm concerned if Tim says we are ok WE ARE OK! But I'll be honest and say I'm still confused. See my previous post. R rate up growth rate drop? news.sky.com/story/covid-19-englands-r-number-rises-slightly-to-between-0-8-and-1-1-12291275

When Tim talks about risks (1:45,000 if you're not vaccinated; 1:100,000 if you are) is he talking about risk of catching Covid, risk if dying from Covid, or what?

Do you think we should have separate surgeries for long covid, where Doctors experienced in treating covid and its long term side effects be available. It would release our G.P. s from normal workloads.?

I'm 22 and had the 1sr Astra zenaca jab and now due for my 2nd on Sunday, I'm really worried as the 1st one made me really ill, I felt like my head would explode, could I mix my jabs?