And many "MMA experts" don't know that Ilia's Grappling/Wrestling is much better than his boxing. Only he hasn't needed to use it yet. Topuria started doing KO's once the UFC signed him. Before his UFC debut it was all submissions in the round 1.
Here’s my take. Ilia is the better boxer and grappler, while max is a better kickboxer and volume puncher. Max has the best chin at 145, while Ilia has One punch knockout power. They both have incredible speed and cardio, with a slight edge to Max. One thing I need to see is the weight. Max spent months preparing for light weight in his last fight, gaining a lot more muscle. This is a double edged sword, as while Max might have more power and strength now at 145, the weight cut will be harder on Max, which will reduce his chin, speed, and cardio. Another thing is the venue. According to Ariel, Ilia vs Max will take place in UFC 307, in Salt Lake City, meaning elevation. If this is the case the cardio will be reduced for both fighters, however I think Max would have an advantage over Ilia with reduced Oxygen. If I had to predict the outcome, I’d say Ilia 65% of the time would beat Max. However with all these variables, I’d say you should keep this off your parleys
i think ilia will show he is on another level. the volk ko was not because of a weak chin. he was tagging volk in the first round of the fight and even landed great leg kicks, which kind of shocked me given how easily volk usually wins the leg kick battle in each of his fights. topuria will close the distance and pocket box with max and could be the first to put him down. he will probably mix in take downs to test max's submission defense but i don't think he is outgunned on the feet to where it'll be needed
It's honestly kinda hard to draw conclusions about Ilia from the Volk fight because while I don't buy into the Volk got KO'd because he hadn't recovered from Islam narrative, I do think he just didn't fight like he normally does, possibly due to the Islam fight shaking his confidence more than compromising his chin. He didn't even really go for any leg kicks, opting for naked inside low kicks and high kicks which was weird. He also didn't try to pressure, pretty much just jabbing. It was overall a very timid performance from Volk and even if Ilia's face was getting busted up from that jab there wasn't any real danger in trying to corner him. Ilia's a very hard fight for Max, but I don't think it's gonna look anything like the Volk fight. It's not gonna be about Ilia trying to chase Max down, Max is gonna try to pressure him and test how good Ilia is fighting backwards (which Ilia is very good as we saw against Josh Emmet) but still.
We haven't seen him against a taller fighter since Jai Herbert and he almost got Ko'd but jais not great. If holloway hurts ilia once it's gonna be lights out, ilia got rocked by Emmett too slightly in the last round of the fight. Ilia is good but we haven't seen him against another boxer yet so who knows what will happen when they collide
@@TheGoblinChrisF Also he hasn't really faced anyone who attacked him with combinations yet. Emmett was able to land against him in the pocket but being reliant on his power he almost never follows up and just lands single shots, and with Ilia being really good at rolling with punches single powerful shots aren't gonna hurt him enough. Volk has good combinations but in their fight he pretty much just jabbed and threw naked kicks. If Max brings both his newfound power and his ability to pour it on when he sees an opportunity it should be interesting.
@@unmessable12 Exactly. Like Topuria has power yes but it's not some insane ngannou level that's gonna ko Holloway. He for some reason couldn't KO a 38 year old Josh Emmett who nearly dies cutting weight and gassed in Rd 3 and has a sus chin. It'll be very interesting to see what happens when ilia is forced to rely on more than his power
Ilia is too good. Betted on him against Volk, made a shit ton of money. He is undefeated, and high level skilled in every aspect of MMA. He is younger, faster and more hungry than Max.
The power is a big factor. Max was getting the better of the alot of exchanges in that Poirier fight but Poiriers power would stop Max flat in his tracks when he would gain momentum
@@thenedsmmachannel8970 Why are people still talking about a fight that happened 5 years ago? Did you miss 300? Max wasn't in shape and that clearly affected his performance. Didn't have that problem against Justin.
Max should stay at lightweight obviously. He just straight up went 5 rounds with the scariest version of Gaethje! Was winning on the cars n then starches him at the buzzer. If he could deal with the grappling he's a legit title threat at 155.
No he's not. He CANT deal with the grappling. Better grapplers cant. He has a huge chance at beating Ilia. He has ZERO shot of doing anything to Makhachev
Topuria doesn't only have very good technique; he also has that aura and swagger about him, especially after what he did to Volk. Holloway's mentality and experience are hard to bet against too. It's a very interesting fight.
Max I think will use topurias orthodox right hand against him, he tends to overextend and leave the right hand down after throwing it, if max can draw it out and switch to southpaw he can land left cross over the right hand
@@shredgod6394that’s actually not true. I’m the Bryce Mitchell fight he was swing for the fences literally trying to ko Bryce because he knew Bryce couldn’t counter him.
Here's the thing, that Ilia is not the ilia that faced volk nor emmet. He has mentioned he is more focus in different areas regarding to who he is fighting. Brice was a wrestler, so he was not that carefull about the striking, emmet was a puncher, so he was more focussed on his defense, etc.
Stylistically I prefer this version of max taking on illia, him going for less volume, better shot selection and really sitting down on his punches now, not being as ploddy and making really good use of his footwork are all great tools that I can see him using to potentially winning this fight. I think illias gonna have a hard time cornering max and really getting in on him, my worry is that max cutting down to featherweight after bulking this much for LW is gonna be detrimental for his chin. I don’t think illia flat line KOs max, but when they inevitably get into exchanges in the pocket I just don’t know how max will take a flush shot he doesn’t see coming, and illia has that kill switch if he has you hurt or cornered he’s really good at getting the finish. This fights honestly so exciting one of the most interesting matchups we’ve had in a long time. I do think illias gonna ego fight max and not grapple at all with him, which I think will be detrimental to his success. Max has a lot more tools on the feet than illia, but it’ll probably come down to damage, and they both cut pretty easily so who knows who wins tbh
Its “easier” for a muscular person to cut weight because muscle is so much water. So Max could theoretically replace 5 lbs of fat with 7lbs of lean muscle, weigh more, and also make it easier to cut weight.
It’s not easier for a muscular person to cut weight. 😂 Low body fat percentage means you have to cut water weight which is excruciating and not fun at all. Cutting down fat and calories is no biggie.
@@brandonmcalpin9228 I am specifically referring to water weight cuts, I implied as such; “because muscle is so much water” apologies for not making that clearer for inference. My point still stands, water weight cuts are easier to do for a muscular person in the limited time span fighters have before weigh ins versus trying to cut weight by losing muscle and fat mass. Im not comparing water weight cuts to dieting(you imply as much in your last sentence). Im comparing only two scenarios within a water weight cut. A fat 145er and a lean muscle 145er have a water weight cutting contest, the muscular person is going to win.
Max doesn’t have 5 pounds of fat lying around tho, him and topuria are championship level fighters they have their strength to weight ratio basically perfect
@@DMR_MAK I don’t think you understand 😂 That’s not how that works. For weight cutting, the process begins at the start of fight camp, 8 weeks in. They diet, eat clean, vegetables and bake chicken basically. They eat less and less the closer to fight week. On fight week, this is where the fatter fighter will have to cut down the rest in water weight, but had lost a large amount in those 8 weeks. For the fitter fighter, who’s cutting a large amount of weight, didn’t lose much, if ANY weight in those 8 weeks because of low body fat percentage. So he’s forced to cut hella water weight. And think.. muscle weighs more than fat. So he has more weight to cut than the fat person, because they burned that off mostly and have less muscle mass storing water. So the muscles guy, who is holding more water in his muscles, which weighs more than the fat left on the other guy… you see? The other guy doesn’t have to severely dehydrate himself as much as the shredded guy with big muscles that’s holding a shit ton of water weight. He’s going to dehydrate himself the death 😂 It’s going to suck ass. Of course; this is only assuming this guy cuts hella weight. If he’s fit and close to his walking around weight, he’s fine. If he’s got paid trainers and professionals around him, he’s fine. If he has a lot of weight to cut, he’s going to ensure hell.
There are many scenarios i see Ilia winning, but only one scenario where Max wins, and that’s if Ilia’s Ego plays against him. Ilia’s goal is to be the face of the UFC, and with that, becoming a mega-star. The plan he has to achieve that is giving the best fights ever, so what he wants to do is beating Max in his own game: striking. That could lead into Ilia not relaying in his ground game if needed
Such a great matchup. Max has the boxing acumen to match ilia’s, just different styles of boxing. Max is extremely durable while ilia is a chin collector. Truly a clash between the unstoppable force and the immovable object.
what different level ilia lost the first round to volk who was 35 off a headkick ko. while yes he did beat down on emmett ilia has a long hook combination style with power but as izzy showed to alex in there 4th fight straight punches land first and max sure does love his straight punchs
The both have the proper tools to beat one another. Neither is superior. Max is only 32 years young and with the experience he has I’d never bet this fight lol. I like Max he’s motivated to get that belt back and Ilia is a little too cocky lately. Humility always comes around sooner or later if anybody can knock him out it’s Max.
You are crazy my man. Max got tagged so many times by people with way worse striking than Topuria. Let me know how many punches to chin from Ilia Max can take.
Illia rocked volk and Mitchel with a devastating leg kick on the 1st round of of both of those fights. He might not have the volume but when he throws it it’s effective
Why this fight is so good is that most of the people are swinging on their prediction of who wins this fight. Would love to see Holloway get the belt back but topuria is a beast
I think it’s just up to who’s game plan works better. If max’s kick range step in boxing is effective enough he wins, if topuria is able to effectively close the distance he wins.
Maxs coaches have also been talking about how they've been changing up minot details in the way Maxs punches, such as squeezing his fists more, to cause more impact.
This was a really good breakdown and the fact that you brought up that ilia’s original base is bjj and wrestling really makes you look at the fight differently especially since it’s so overlooked due to ilia’s boxing. Even tho ilia has all those different skills I agree that max will probably win this one especially if ilia comes out there and isn’t fully calm or fights emotional. I think max definitely has the edge when it comes to the mental part being that he’s fought so many elite fighters and been in so many different situations, I see max taking him to the later rounds and taking over winning him the fight as long as he continues to stick to this new style where he uses his movement to avoid big shots and throws good counters.
On Max losing power dropping to 145, Max has said that while fighting at 155 he's usually walking around at 175. A very modest cut for a lightweight. So I don't imagine he will lose much muscle at featherweight, or that it will be a considerable issue since his strategy training for Gaethje was speed over strength anyways.
Not throwing kicks isn’t a weakness imo. If you can keep on the inside, if you’re real good at it like Ilia, kicks become a liability to your opponent rather than a weapon for you.
It seems like Max is finally developing his man strength. Kinda weird to think that he's still growing because I consider him a UFC veteran, but realistically he's just now hitting the strongest and most powerful he'll ever be and his skills have only improved in the last decade, especially recently.
People are under looking max’s defense and head movement. Yes illia has good hands but we’ll see if he uses kicks and his grappling, and we’ll see if that makes a difference against max.
I get what you say about the kicks for max, he´s got an awesome spinning back kick that he landed like 4 times on justin, but volkanovski seemed to also have this plan of staying on the outside throwing kicks. Topuria set him up, cut off the cage and knocked him out. I don´t think Max is going to let himself be caught that badly, but he´s in for a tough match no matter what.
max leaves his face open when kicking, it's smthn that topuria can exploit if he's patient, and I also dont see him more learning to defend kicks rather than throwing all while perfecting and keeping his boxing base, ring control and footwork
I think the biggest hole in ilias game is the gaping hold in his defence that leaves him open to knees up the middle. bryce never connected them cause he was sloppy and not timing them well but I would imagine in the event of a blitz exchange or if ilia shoots a takedown that knee is there......
I dunno if max has the power back down at that weight class. We will have to see I think the added weight and being able to properly bulk up did him alot of good.
Max's power is being over hyped by the Gaethje knockout. It was a spectacular end to the fight but Gaethje got rocked several times during the fight and he was compromised by the nose since round 1. Also swanging and banging for the last 10 seconds leaves you super susceptible to getting KO'd. Not to mention Garthje gets rocked in every fight he's in and at 36 the chin was ready to give way. Same can be said for TKZ. Old, wild and chin was going when he got KO'd. If Max thinks he's bomber because of that it could get him in trouble.
He definitely going to have the same power he had in 155, he said when he was training for the Justin fight, he focus more on conditioning then building muscle.
@@John11- na that's just biased hate towards Topuria. Max fans are something else, they slandered Volk for over year after their 2nd fight calling him a fake champ. Wasn't till he smoked Max the 3rd time they kept their mouths shut
God I want Max to win but Ilia will be the first person to KO max. He will pressure him to the cage and eventually find his chin. His technique is so fast and accurate. The accuracy and the body work is what gets him the KO’s.
Close fight for sure. I worry that Max’s chin could be compromised by the weight cut. If it’s not I favor him to win. If Ilia gets him down with ease could be a long night but I haven’t seen enough to suggest his takedowns are to the level of his top control. I do feel Ilia is more prime than DC for a fat head kick. Things to keep an eye on. 1. How bad does the weight cut go for Max 2. How successful is Ilia’s entries into the clinch 3. How responsible is Ilia with his head movement in relation to head kicks.
Max is definitely winning this one in his prime he by most opinions should have beat volk in their second match while volk was in his prime and this gaethje win is just going to give him momentum . Topuria is amazing but he beat a washed up volkanovski I see max winning this via two in the last round he’s a better boxer and striker he’s faster and has a better chin and cardio , topuria will outwrestle max but max’s takedown defence has never been a problem
He will beat Topuria when Illia will sleep him and Max will visit that place where time does not exist. There Max can dream with almost anything. Unfortunately when he wakes up he will listen to Bruce saying "and still".
Ilia is a wrestler/jiu-jitsu fighter that started being a standup fighter. If he wants to take max down and tap him he can. He threw Bryce Mitchell on his back and choked him out
