How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking - with Jordan Ellenberg 

Nope, we agree.

His enthusiasm is kinda comedic. I feel like he may be good at telling jokes. His enthusiasm makes you want to participate. I randomly found this vid but i watched the whole thing just because his enthusiasm got me excited.

Yeah, it's catchier than the cororavirus

SAME!

A tip: watch series on flixzone. Been using it for watching loads of movies during the lockdown.

Can you tell me what is thid video s said?

😂😂😂

@@adamkaidunnaustralia5158 ccc, zbn . N .. .

Thank you. Yes. As a computer scientist his explanation infuriates me. As you generate tickets, all you need to do is track how many times you've used each number, and pick the ones that you've used the least so far. The non-Euclidean space with line intersections is interesting, but totally misses the point.

I was thinking exactly the same. But I am still a beginner so I don't know.

Well. I think the " projective geometry" behind the number picking was just a gimmick to make the lecture more interesting. Maybe to make him look more intelligent. Or a marketing strategy to sell more books. You know how it goes. When people see something which seems smart and they can kind of understand they buy it. I could not find any substance in his lecture other than cheap curiosities.

And like he said,Mit guys played lottery that had better value than cost/ticket. So in his example-lottery the main prize should have been 7$ and deuce 3$. And thats how you win.

demerex thank you that is very well explained much appreciated. I tutor physics and math but statistics was nver my thing...drove me nuts actually

Which indicates that you knew absolutely nothing about math. If I were you I wouldnt admit to what you admitted to.

@@ThunderAppeal He also wrote "I'm reading it's book" and there are two errors in the word IT'S: one semantic (should be HIS or HER) and one grammatical: (ITS, if Jordan is neuter).

I got very annoyed by him yelling at me for no reason. He has a microphone, he doesn't need to yell like he does. It just makes his voice very annoying to me.

I like his presentation style. He sounds like he's going to burst out in laughter any time.

The umm, Right?, OK? are his stalling tricks so his fast speaking doesn’t slow when he has to arrange his next sentence in his mind. Training could help him with all this. Math easily flows through his mind. Slowing it to verbalize is painful to ‘watch’.

I am not surprised at the undeserved negativity. It's obvious some people get a thrill out of finding fault. It's everywhere on the internet in response to virtually everything. Some people are only here for these opportunities, and the more expert the speaker or writer, the more rewarding this is for anonymous people who probably lack more positive ways to stroke their own egos. In no way is this meant to object to constructive criticism that is clearly intended to be helpful. For an example of that, see the remark by Oliv Trees above. In any case, I found Dr. Ellenberg's manner of speaking quite engaging and the subject matter much more entertaining than I expected, as a person who is generally rather maths aversive and frequently annoyed by the speech patterns of certain speakers. I'll bet the courses he teaches fill up fast. When mentally stable people encounter something they don't like on this massive smorgasbord they immediately leave in search of something else. They don't hang around to poke jabs.

He is annoyingly screeching and shrieking a lot. If he would speak a little calmer the talk would be much more enjoyable.

Thomas Kirsch is the book something like freakonomics?

Very naive observation at best. One CAN judge a good mathematician from the way he speaks.

Really great talk he's giving. But he really does need a voice coach. It's not the umms that are a problem really, it's the lack of support in his voice which is caused by shallow breath. It makes him gasp a little for air while he's speaking, makes his voice thinner and makes it more difficult for the audience to listen. If he doesn't address the problem- seeing as how he uses his projective voice daily as a teacher- he can eaily get vocal and throat problems many years down the road.

In Veritate Gloria - I agree that listening to someone speak about a subject says a lot about their mastery of the material. However, most people cannot retain their train of thought as well in front of an audience. For instance, I know Chemistry very well and can talk with anyone one-on-one for hours about it, but get me in front of 30 - 100 people and I get too self conscious and stop thinking as clearly as I need to to carry the talk forward. So, similar to the last statements made by thsscapi, one must work to get better at thinking clearly in front of an audience.

All these "umms" is actually a sign of quality. He doesn't need to prepare a speech and memorize is it to tell the audience about his points, he knows his topic by heart and can instantaneously compose a talk right in front of where he stands. It's like a musicican giving you a live concert instead of playing a tape.It's like a chef preparing your food right in front of you instead of getting it out the fridge.

i totally concur! ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-xbwBUHgHVa0.html (Michelle Obama insists that you GET UP & MOVE YOUR A$$!)

Yeah. It is called "Survivorship bias". en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Heard this same story about Lord Blacketts operational research group in the UK....

I think if the Brits took the target off the fuselage, more pilots would come back.

Tzs Lung Nip but what if that was kind of a reverse-psychology trick, that made the enemy shoot at the target instead of other more fragile bits of the airplane? ;-)

@@irrelevant_noob I think that's what they tell the new widows.

That was my thought too but that's not it at all.

Sorry, he was tough to listen too and made a huge error at the start of his "big" example. Tough to have faith in the presentation.

lol It is so cool it's Tricy-cooled...like Billie Eilish riding around on tiny tricycle. Three times for emphasis? Why no love for Empha-bro though? 😂😂😂

@@adamkaidunnaustralia5158 ugh come on

@@guptahaha ...no, you come on, what can't feel enough to lol, so you troll on year old posts thinking they won't reply maybe? I'm sad for you bro and happy for me knowing that i can find whimsy in the small things while you get your rocks off trashing others thinking that somehow makes you a bigger person 😢😂 hope you get a life but have a great day anyway if you dont, deuschebag 😂😎👍

Do you have pdf?

I love you

Another interesting point is that the state does not get that $0.80 on the free tickets nor does it increase the rollover.

I disagree. But I guess it's debatable. Here I'd say the value is the price. Even if it's the expected value, we have a recursive definition because the E.V. depends on the value. I guess you could call it x and get a simple equation in x (which appears on both sides).

It isn't about the geometry, it's about the possibilities.

You meant infectious, right?

Same problem with RC radios. Some manufacturers seem to make radios of the same frequency in batches. Sent to stores in batches. Bought by guys in the neighborhood from the same store. . . Then the field has four other guys on your frequency and there are a dozen frequencies not being used:(

Gary Lewis interesting story. Only one problem with it: the conclusion. It should rather be that using the fortune cookie numbers would INCREASE the chance of sharing a jackpot, i think you meant that it decreases the chance of getting an unshared jackpot. ;-)

So the optimal strategy is to collect a bunch of fortune cookies and DON'T use their numbers when playing the lottery.

Gary Lewis Good thing this guy didn't listen to you www.wcvb.com/article/fortune-cookie-means-big-fortune-for-powerball-winner-1/27736099

@@gangfire5932 Yes, and DON'T use ANY numbers you did not invent yourself. Germany 1977: Over 200 players shared the jackpot, almost all living in the north west. Also Germany 1977: The same six numbers were drawn, which were drawn in the Netherlands the week before.

The end was the exciting part, where he brought in the connection with projective geometry.

Yes, narrative is important.... what is narrative?

+Eric Taylor but why isn't it both?

Jonathan Zilk Both what?

oh never mind. I misread your comment.

Two identical tickets will still give each their prize. There are always duplicates in lotteries, which is why you see multiple winners sharing a jackpot.

Daniel Smedegaard Buus No not always. Also if one person buys both duplicate tickets then they are in effect the SAME ticket. Both tickets "win" but the prize is split between them. If one person gets both halves they have gotten one whole prize.

If I am reading between the lines of your post correctly, I think you would enjoy this video: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-QLSYo_YDVVk.html

We need more upvotes on this answer, because it's actually the right one and this guys speech is horribly ironic given the title. Lotteries are completely random which means it doesn't matter which numbers are chosen since they all have the same probability of being the winning numbers.

Not sure exactly what the maths behind the roll-down is, but picking by hand also gives the chance of choosing numbers that other people are less likely to pick, possibly giving a bigger share of the full pot. E.g. don't pick straight sequences. Don't pick only numbers under 31. (People have a bias towards picking birthdays) etc.

Benny Z literally all I was thinking 😂😂

hahahahahaha

I literally clicked on it thinking it was a punishment lol

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

thanks, checking that out!

Note that the aforementioned 25 page Letter from the Massachusetts Treasurer is available online at several websites and archives for the State of Massachusetts. Amazing but true story involving the ingenious use of mathematical thinking.

Except they didn't. They made the state a lot of money.

I'd prefer the book over his lecture, until he gets some coaching on presentation.

I've never heard the expression "hate on", versus plain "hate". Where are you from?

No, it isn't. This combinatorial design is precisely to devise a strategy to avoid losing (meaning that all your guesses of the lottery extraction were wrong). If you follow such a strategy, your bets will be "correct" in a precise sense, as opposed to being "wrong".

@@itellyouforfree7238 Depends on how you define misleading, I think "inept" is a better word.

Repetition is not allowed in the lottery, at least not in the US. So something like 111 would not be possible in his simplified lottery.

That's a good thing. If you were sure about everything, you'd be just like Donald Trump... wrong about everything.

@@Hippiekinkster He was successful in business, then t.v. then was able to win a presidential candidate. Maybe you should think about that statement. Maybe he is only wrong in your eyes, just because he doesnt have your political view doesnt mean hes wrong.

I used to be like that too. I did not believe in belief itself, so could not believe a I did not believe either or that it existed or did not. If you are unsure that you are sure about being unsure, my advice is to focus on increasing your information for analysis and in preparation for any possible outcome, whether it exists or not is irellevant I know now, your unsure feelings are valid but not as important as your drive and focus to pursue the best ways to learn and retain what you have learned. Learn as much as is possible instead of seeking assurance or truth primarily, and if you feel like you've reached a point where you can go no further then you can start learning how to do impossible things like being able to ignore limited ideas, where things being labelled with terms such as assurance or the lack of it are irrelevant, you don't need to be sure or believe to act on things as you might understand if you feel somewhat like I did... just act on your desires and if you find yourself desireless at some point then you'll better understand the value of feelings and actions anyway. Most will never know what it's like and will never appreciate or focus enough on just feeling happy in the moment or how their sadness or anger means they still have hope and a desire too better their circumstances some way or another. If you ever dispair then just act on basic instinct at that point, lisyen to your body and spirit more, they will guide your conciousness well if it has been trained and filled with useful infornation they can use to force you to instinctually improve your circumstances. Anyway that was my experience and journey i chose to take for years which led me to an Absolutely irrefutable discovery in the end, it was rough for a long time but it was worth the indecisive and unsure feelings all the more in the end. Until you are absolutely sure it's wise to be unsure and assume nothing and remove as much bias as possible. Although I might tell my younger self to not form too many ill concieved habitual routines if I ever speak to him again, not because I regret having had them but because I'm curious to know how things would've played out and if any signifucant differences occur lol

What a coincidence! This video was published almost 4 years ago, and yours is the only comment I saw about it. I noticed the same thing only one day later. I computed the same return of 59.09 cents per ticket.

Oops. I saw another person catch it 5 months ago. Search does not fully work in these comments.

...... “who was a mathematician that...” he was explaining who he was and what the situation was!!!! As in........ “Lance Baker is a bell end, .......a bell end who interrupts other people’s sentences and anecdotes because he craves attention and acceptance from his peers. Go watch something more on your level i.e. Teletubbies, button moon or challenge yourself and try Johnny Ball’s “think of a number” whilst struggling to come to terms with your social inadequacies knob cheese. ❤️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿❤️

Bertie Blue That's an unfair and false dichotomy. I was very interested and watched the whole thing. The "um"s still bothered me. The two are not mutually exclusive.

My comment was supposed to be a mathematical conundrum, though I can see why that wasn't perceived. It's been too long since I've seen the video but towards the end of it I started to ponder the probability of the word "um" being said in a prepared speech. Maybe if the speaker spent more of the 48 minutes talking in math I'd be distracted enough, like yourself, to not have any time to wander off topic. How unhelpful this is the first notification I get of any replies here...

Afraid not!

Edmond Dantez I smell corruption too. Shame!

@@ameremortal Heinlein's razor - Never attribute to malice what can be accounted for by simple stupidity.

Edmond Dantez I doubt the people who profit from running the lottery are stupid. People looking for a hack will not stop at anything. But for something like this to happen, you need corruption...

+Avatar Jillian Well, I think he's very engaging...

וט8םחייאאאא4654433קקטעעעע

He talks like my mother, spends 3 hours talking about irrelevance, then 2 minutes getting to the point. I have the overwhelming desire to inch away slowly and gently shut the door...

Abdul Rehman.....we are all wasting time

These are indeed RU-vid's auto generated subtitles. We are planning to transcribe all of our videos so that the subtitles would actually be useful rather than a strange experience in surrealist art. Most of our short videos are now transcribed but we don't currently have the resources to finish the longer ones! If you find time to lend a hand then it would be much appreciated - ru-vid.com_video?v=kZTKuMBJP7Y&ref=share

Math is the universal language, if you didn't have it, you wouldn't have the words on your screen, or the computer itself XD

"universal human language"... You don't know what language the universe speaks.

@@nicewhenearnedrudemostlyel489 , BINARY! The TRUE UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE! ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-OD7AkvTV0dM.html Or rather, FROM THE FUTURE!!! ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-sRYl1WAIitE.html

Twelve negative spins when put on an inverter gives quantum leap.

That's the reason 144 is critical because it holds the power.

That is the total number of possible universes.

Venkatesh babu ii

@@mikejames2934 - you are wrong. -1. (slow people: double entendre alert)

please explain

He just wants to make things complicated

I feel like you wouldn't have to buy hundreds of thousands of tickets to get into a position where the standard deviation around the expected value was acceptably low - especially if taking the long-term approach.

No. The idea is that every combination of tickets has the same expected value (long run average amount of money you're going to make). However, some combinations can reduce the amount of risk (variance) more than others! Essentially, the MIT students were borrowing money, so they didn't want to EVER risk losing lots of money. So what they did was come up with a particular combination of tickets that (under the cash winfall rules) essentially guaranteed that they would make money by winning lots of minor prizes every time. The side effect was that it gave them less of a chance at winning the jackpot. The average amount of money they made would be the same regardless of what tickets they picked, but the MIT handpicked ticket combinations ensured they made steady returns rather than having more of a chance to lose money in each individual drawing. Hence all the advanced maths to come up with their handpicked numbers was used to guarantee the same return with less risk of a bad outcome. Of course, todays lotteries have a negative expected value, so using a strategy like that wouldn't help you win a normal lottery anyway- but it really helps in the Cash Winfall situation.

sounds like Berry from the Bee movie.

Justin Portillo thinking same thing

omfg I was not the only one thinking that :D

I actually clicked on this video looking for this comment