Great video as always Chris. I do think it is dangerous the comment about upping the stake if your losing. That is like chasing your loses which is never a good thing and I am sure way back you told us to never do that ;) . I know you would be smart about it but doing a martingale stratergy could be devestating for some people. Keep up th good work.
I do apologise for not being completely clear. That would only be if you had the bankroll available to stomach the higher stakes. If you only had £900 total bankroll then £13.50 or 1.5% on each bet no matter what would be the max.
People don't understand the probability of independent events. If you toss tails 7 times in a row.....that doesn't mean heads is more likely to come up in the next coin toss. It's still 50/50....the coin doesn't have any memory
THanks for the video. Excellent quality but dont change your stake when losing :) Not a good idea. In theory you could apply this concept: the bigger the value the higher stake BUT thats just an idea. You should always stick to your staking method.
You're essentially applying the betting theory of card counting. I'm surprised it's not actually part of the strategy of the site at first glance. The one negative is that you lose the largest amounts when you have the greatest advantage, which in itself is triggering.
In theory is the main thing here, could this eventually work out as an average similar to the 2up bets do you think or more likely & often wins than that? Id be interested in starting it if it wasnt some crazy chance of roi been lower than what im doing or incurring big losses?
Unhedged 2UP strategy does make sense, as the bets are positive EV. I have recorded all my 2UP bets and outcomes (around 600 matches) so I am going to compare the volatility and see if the strategy would preform the same. have you already done something like this?
i have a question if we back a value bet at the odds of 2 for the sake of the argument with implied value of 7 % what happens in the scenario that the price drifts either rebel bet got it wrong or some new info occurred rebel bet will not put this match again with new odds as value bet pretty much admitting is a mistake wouldn't be wise to cash out this trade in a small loss since value have disappeared please enlighten me if i get something wrong tnx
@@ProfitBoss I'll be keeping an eye for your long term results with Betfair. What average bet have you managed to get on with gubbed accounts, is it worth while?
