Forgot a key part to the Monty Hall Problem. He reveals a door that is NOT the prize. So the question is keep your original choice or switch to the door that wasn't revealed. Does not apply to this baseball question (switching who you think is going to win the division).
FWIW, team in baseball has overperformed its BaseRuns/adjusted Pythag more than the Guardians; they’ve done so by something like 10 wins, which is just nuts. I agree with Eno that the Twins are the better team; it’s just tough to account for health and luck, and of course, Cleveland has already banked a ton of wins. But if there were a second-half winner, I think it could be Minnesota, especially if they get a little healthier (and maybe KC would leapfrog into second). 🤷🏽♂️
About Monty hall, imagine there are 1 million doors, you chose one, the host opens 999998 doors all of which have goats behind them, and then you are asked to switch, would you? Another way to think about it is you pick a door, there is a 1/3 chance you picked a car. Following that, Monty hall reveals a goat, but he always does that no matter what, so it provides no new information and there is still a 1/3 chance you have the car. Because there are only 2 doors left indeterminate if you switch and you didn’t pick the car(2/3) you always win.
Carl Willis will sprinkle his magic on Spencer Howard, so he'll be a 2nd half all star. Angel Martinez is a baller! hitting 2nd in between kwan and Jram! Jon Singleton is this years second half tristan casas hr beast
Not sure how to get the message to eno but I’m a data scientist so it is my thing. You switch on the Monty hall problem because the only want to not win the car is if you picked the car the first time. So you have a 1/3 chance to pick the car, so if you switch you then have a 2/3 chance
Lindor.... please look at the late and close #s with the Mets on Baseball-Reference. Under 200 this year, 200 last year, and 210 in 2022. He hits a walkoff hit to cf. Is interviewed on the field after a WIN. shoulders slumped and 'I didn't do what i was trying to do, I didnt hit a homerun' He has me talking to the TV... down by 1 with runners on 2nd and 3rd. 'Hit the ball the other way, your not going to getca pitch in side.' IFFB trying to pull a pitch off the plate away. Theres no situational hitting. Its just the look inside and drive the ball. (This run he's better, the 2nd half last year he was good by hitting the ball the other way situationally when called for when the Mets already sold.) Glove is great. Very happy with the glove.
