Rates & Barrels is a show about baseball from The Athletic featuring Eno Sarris, Derek VanRiper and Trevor May. The show focuses on fantasy and real baseball, covering all of the biggest stories in and around the game throughout the year from the start of the Hot Stove season, to the final pitch in October. Join us for livestream episode on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT!
Forgot a key part to the Monty Hall Problem. He reveals a door that is NOT the prize. So the question is keep your original choice or switch to the door that wasn't revealed. Does not apply to this baseball question (switching who you think is going to win the division).
FWIW, team in baseball has overperformed its BaseRuns/adjusted Pythag more than the Guardians; they’ve done so by something like 10 wins, which is just nuts. I agree with Eno that the Twins are the better team; it’s just tough to account for health and luck, and of course, Cleveland has already banked a ton of wins. But if there were a second-half winner, I think it could be Minnesota, especially if they get a little healthier (and maybe KC would leapfrog into second). 🤷🏽♂️
MLB Inc. has decided the most profitable way of doing business is for ballclubs to chase the bandwagon fan and people who usually arent marketed to. Well have fun America when you R watching game 7 of the world series sorrounded by morons. Enjoy that experience 🙄
So basically the premise of this show is about evaluating ballplayers. Ok cool. Now what I don't understand is why not have the word: fantasy baseball- in the literal title tho ??? Ok maybe Im wrong. That happens Maybe this is about recent trends in front offices like business of sports ??? Ok so maybe have the words business and/or front office should be in title, right ???? I am confused and would appreciate clarification 👍😕
I happen to think a show like this with an abstract concept would have a more receptive audience if it were about college baseball or with international baseball angle.
Not sure how to get the message to eno but I’m a data scientist so it is my thing. You switch on the Monty hall problem because the only want to not win the car is if you picked the car the first time. So you have a 1/3 chance to pick the car, so if you switch you then have a 2/3 chance
About Monty hall, imagine there are 1 million doors, you chose one, the host opens 999998 doors all of which have goats behind them, and then you are asked to switch, would you? Another way to think about it is you pick a door, there is a 1/3 chance you picked a car. Following that, Monty hall reveals a goat, but he always does that no matter what, so it provides no new information and there is still a 1/3 chance you have the car. Because there are only 2 doors left indeterminate if you switch and you didn’t pick the car(2/3) you always win.
Lindor.... please look at the late and close #s with the Mets on Baseball-Reference. Under 200 this year, 200 last year, and 210 in 2022. He hits a walkoff hit to cf. Is interviewed on the field after a WIN. shoulders slumped and 'I didn't do what i was trying to do, I didnt hit a homerun' He has me talking to the TV... down by 1 with runners on 2nd and 3rd. 'Hit the ball the other way, your not going to getca pitch in side.' IFFB trying to pull a pitch off the plate away. Theres no situational hitting. Its just the look inside and drive the ball. (This run he's better, the 2nd half last year he was good by hitting the ball the other way situationally when called for when the Mets already sold.) Glove is great. Very happy with the glove.
Carl Willis will sprinkle his magic on Spencer Howard, so he'll be a 2nd half all star. Angel Martinez is a baller! hitting 2nd in between kwan and Jram! Jon Singleton is this years second half tristan casas hr beast
On the craft Eno got interrupted before answering a Hayden Birdsong question, I’m curious what he thinks about bad fastball good secondaries in general
We're just going to take one minute each week to discuss a random place or thing that we've never seen before, or have not encountered in 20+ years and just see where it goes. - DVR
Fitzgerald needs to start way more games for Giants. In MLB U will see every ballclub go thru stretches where they aren't getting hits (Mariners/Indians of nineties EXCLUDED) and an elite baserunner can give the offense a jolt of confidence when the hits just aren't falling.
Starting the slippery slope of betting where 20 years in the future most professional sports leagues will have massive issues with getting fans to believe what happens on the field is real and not a result of players, coaches, umpires, all manipulating things
The two teams are obviously very different, other than having terrible bullpens, but it is fun to note that after 50 games, the 2019 Nationals were 19-31, while the 2024 Mets were 21-29, and the Mets are currently 41-41, exactly the same as those Nats were after 82 games. And they have a fairly soft schedule through July 22. While their own pitching is obviously a problem, the Mets have beaten up on tough pitching, as their adjusted (third-order) Pythag numbers indicate. In the FWIW department, they have the league’s 8th-best BaseRuns record, at 45-37, virtually tied with the Twins, and ahead of-in order-the Mariners, Astros, Royals, Guardians, and Padres, and pretty darned close to the Brewers, Yankees, and Atlanta. It’s not necessarily predictive, but they’ve been underperforming their BaseRuns and adjusted Pythag all along, so perhaps they are a legit contender, and should improve their pitching before it has a chance to torpedo their season.
How close is Daniel Schneemann looking to Joey Ortiz 2.0? Kind of hard to say "2.0" since this was also the Joey Ortiz breakout year, but it would be nice to nail both in the same season
Thanks for this. I have Imanaga, Ranger Suarez, and Bryce Miller. Feeling like I need to upgrade via trade. Who should I target for rest of the season...?
You have to view Kjerstad as a 23 year old development wise. He missed 2 full years with a heart condition. He only played 240 career minor league games.
This was a good insight. For some reason the angels have some sort of cult thinking around them that they are some sort of young, up and coming team. I really don't get it.
Sam Blum isn’t taken seriously by ownership or fans, for a good reason. It’s ok to be critical of a team, that’s a good thing. Blum legitimately dislikes the franchise in a palpable way, he lacks tact or baseball intelligence. He wants to create a narrative that is divisive because it generates news. It’s a pathetic schtick. And again, there’s honor in critique, but Blum isn’t that guy. He’s honestly just a hater that plays a victim.
Don’t care what reporters ownership takes seriously, they deserve criticism and Sam does do that to his credit, but I am not really into Sam. He’s good on the business aspect stuff but his actual writing on baseball is fairly mediocre and his overall knowledge of baseball seems average at best
National League W.W.Est Report: Sabermetricians love to complain about light-hitting backup middle infielders- and sabermetricians also love to complain about 4th outfielders who can't slug UNTIL the free agent CF from Korea is out for the year... Also- we still have future Hall of Famer and reigning National League pennant winner Evan Longoria unsigned = COLLUSION
I'd just point out for Sam that Sam Bachman's injury issues go back to college. Him pitching 59 innings in college and an addition 14(across 5 starts) in High-A after being drafted wasn't really looked on weirdly by anyone, it was fairly normal. It's different from a Chase Burns(100 IP this year, 72, 80 the previous 2) and Hagen Smith with 84(71 and 77 before) being drafted and told to pitch more. Generally pushing college arms a bit more in the minors once you draft them isn't really looked on strangely unless it's like Paul Skenes who had 122 and then got drafted. Bachmans had injuries for a long time. Though him getting shoulder surgery and then hitting 99 as a SP(didn't do that in 2022 as a SP, only had done it in college and his 2021 minors time) in some sick scenario means maybe he's finally good. But either way, his injuries really can't be put on him throwing 14 innings in High-A after being drafted. College pitchers usually pitch after being drafted
I mean Ron Washington generally makes the wrong move on paper. Opposing TV feeds have caught him screaming at players during games. A lot of the game seems to have passed him by. He might be okay as a coach but him as a Manager seems really weird.
