How the Rapidly Approaching AMOC Shutdown will Completely Change our Lives 

Donate to Paul and he will fix it!

@41:22 you completely glossed over the next sentence, "....medium confidence... the AMOC will not involve abrupt collapse before 2100, such a collapse might be triggered by an unexpected influx of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet." I saw a sign where I live in rural Georgia that said something about 2030 Bible bullshit. They are probably right because the AMOC will shit down way before they say it "might" %chance bullshit. These people are snowflakes. It's the end of the world. Prepare yourself by just accepting it. Go for a walk. Enjoy the freakish weather. Adopt a dog or cat. Give a poor person a prized collector's piece of art. Tell your folks you love them and thanks for the ride. Then, sit back and watch it happen. No one is driving this boat.

thanks Paul. the Beaufort gyre play in at all?

How can someone go through all the trouble of studying climate change and all that entails, and completely ignore the biggest heater in the neighborhood? The cycles it goes through can last hundreds of years. There's direct evidence to this. Models are only as good as the information applied.

@@noneyabusiness88 There is direct evidence that the CO2 levels have doubled in 150 years, scientific KNOWLEDGE (like gas burn in car make go) that it is heating the atmosphere by trapping heat, and an understanding that people like you will perish like the rest of us, so I don't care.

We've been told for decades how F'ed we'd be long before now in hysterical fashion.

@@Mrbfgray it seems to me, vested interests have spent big money to convince the voters, climate change was a tax scam. They convinced enough people to block meaningful change.

enjoy the ride

At some point the weather stopped being a focus of small talk and became the #1 doomsday topic instead. He's just hanging on to that old small talk tone out of habit, I suppose, I tend to laugh to keep my emotions balanced towards positive when I talk about it myself because breaking down and crying over it doesn't make life feel fun. Small talk tones and humor in the midst of horror: things we need to survive emotionally right now.

@@Mrbfgray The rate at which the North Pole melts is worse than predicted, substantially worse.

It hit multiple times over last few decades already.

We cant do anything so why not doing stupid things?

I feel for our children. We haven't given them the skills to navigate the worsening crisis

@@coralcomet They are woefully unprepared. We can talk and inform, but their reality revolves around technology. They are totally reliant on it. Another Carrington event and that all goes away. And they won't cope...😕

There is a movie called : Don’t look up. It says it all!

At least you can spot them by their red MAGA hats in the US.

yea there are none so deaf as those that will not hear.

@@friedrichjunzt And you will be spotting a lot more of them, since Trump is leading in the polls ...people know what the truth is.

People can go nuts in an instant relative to the delay the thermal mass of the planet imposes.

@@kti5682 "Going nuts" is simply another way to escape the (fear of) pain. We're close to tip... Why talking about physics then? "To avoid (fear of) pain by rationalizing"

I was so happy to vote, finally people will obviously see the impact on our climate and start acting i said. How delusional

@@WaveOfDestiny Hug. (Illusions hurt. We just don't feel that. So - You're more real & bright now :) My shitty little town has voted 30% Extreme-Right. You know - when I buy cigarettes and more than 3 ppl in the room - one is probably an as$hOl€

​​@@volkerengels5298 Nah, fear has nothing to do with it. At least, not of climate change. "They" just don't know nothing, haven't ever seen a *science* vid on global warming, just know the word from TV or from social media timelines, in which often it's said the whole climate thing doesn't exist or that reports are way overblown. If they fear a thing, it's losing that relatively unworried life to all them newcomers, migrants, refugees, they don't care, they want less of'm around. If they worry about climate change, it's about what it might cost them, that driving cars, holiday, house heating and eating meat might become even more expensive. Ask around, in Wall Mart, the playground, wherever you meet folks outside the bubble. If any of m knows a thing about AMOC, or West Antarctica, and what might happen if things tip over. Bet you'd find maybe one person who knows a thing or 2 about climate. But the current state of affairs, and the risk we and our "civilization" are running ? No One.

Unfortunately most people only consider the first order impacts. Specifically they think 1.5° sounds pleasant because they enjoy hot weather. That's as far as most people think. It's embarrassingly shortsighted.

That is absolutely true!! I hear law makers from right of centre saying that we'll all still be ok at 3C. I don't think they're right. The insurance example is only one of many

No one shd be living there in the first place.

@@brawndo8726 any info you can share is welcome.

The increase in ins in Louisiana has been devastating many companies have pulled out. The ones left require an extremely high deductible on wind damage to roofs due to hurricanes and tornadoes. Even if your home is paid off, with insurance and property tax it’s like still having a monthly payment

Stupid silent elephant. He should have warned us.

He secretly hates us.

They're the kind that go rogue.

Considering what we did here, there can be no place for us. Enduring sentience just wasn't our thing.

A comprehensive deep-time discoverable human testament would be a nice gesture, because symbiotic intelligence would be cool.

🎉

They said that also when they tried to invade Moscow during Napoleons Eastern march- Only the Amoc was running a bit cooler and the Russian winter was BRUTAL. Hope they likes snowcones! Bonaparte Aptite!

More like ...Bon Voyage!

Is Paul the best we have? Why are alarmists always so damn DIM?

@@Mrbfgray why are you ragging on truth tellers?

Need fewer humans and fewer breeders . Unpopular with capitalism that requires endless growth in customers, resources, productivity and profits. Money I’d GOD .

@@georgenelson8917Spoken like a true communist

Brainless, malthusian doom monger. Educate yourself, grow a spine or preferably remove yourself if you are so concerned. Pathetic weasle.

Worst AND best Pun ever! 😂

Excellent! 👍

lol they definitely already have.

@@goodenough22 But gallows humor gets me through. 😂💚

@@juliebarks3195 same here. Miracles do happen also 🥰

The socalled greens are against nuclear power plants and for wars, ev and mass immigration.

in Sweden there are the blond girls in the city, you see them at cafes sipping wine yes?

@@rd264 And raped in the alleys by ....

@@rd264 No, everyone has converted to Islam, so wine is no longer available and women are wearing burkas.

You vote professional liars, politicians....nice move.

I suspect there may be a plan for this. And it's dirty. Read the geopolitics.

​@@earthman6700 some sort of lottery to safety, is what I'm guessing?

The earth will continue to remain habitable for the lucky few that can afford to live in the liveable areas for a lot longer than it will be for the affected populations who will see their lives get cut short pretty soon. Then there will be those who have truly prepared for this scenario, say people who are part of special projects within some militaries where they have built facilities that allow them to survive beneath the ground. The rest of humanity will wither…

@@dickschwanzstein1789 Once civilizations start to collapse? Those fancy bunkers won't save anyone for long. Despite existing as parasites, billionaires don't seem to understand how dependent they are on the societies they leech from.

Love from Derby UK.

Hampshire 🇬🇧

And Dublin

Caerphilly County Borough ❤️ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

@@beverleyhuish5871 💚☘

Well the Viking settelers on Greenland could have said a word or two on the matter.

If 'Crisis' means something like war and/or total collapse of civilization....

The world needs to "wake up" to the severe risks arising from the ongoing climate change. Perhaps northern Europe should begin making massive investment into Southern Africa so as to secure living space for the inevitable mass emigration from Europe to Southern Africa later this century!!

the irony when northern europeans are stopped at the border to africa will be something else

People have worthless debates about the kinds of refugee they face so far. All measures fail and the respective new home states crash hard when an entire people actually needs to move somewhere. Sadly the rights are too concerned with emotional politics to avoid the real threats. War and economy refugees are stress for the state, climate refugees break it.

@@roadraider6266 seems to me that there are no good answers. People whose families are in danger of starvation are just going to move somewhere where there’s a better chance at a future. No wall is going to stop the migration….in my opinion

Karma works in mysterious ways

You mean give us free housing and feed us and give us jobs? No way in hell.... Have you even been to one of these countries, unless you got money you're on your own pal. Your comment is a joke and not rooted in reality whatsoever.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is right next to Berlin and paid by German Green Party to produce such silly reports and put the world population under " German Angst " !! - Take it critical and don't just obey to results that might be taken on the base of manipulated figures!!!

​@@Canadian_Eh_Ihe means, let us drown in the water, imprison us, force us to stay endless years on camps with no living conditions, most time sending us back to our point of origin and if by a very small chance they approve our refugee status (as established in international law), and maybe get the support we legally have the right to, then suffer a life of discrimination, exploitation and hate from people who never accept us as refugees who would rather be at home than have had to leave everything behind and see us as leeches, when 99% of wealth is hoarded by the elite and we contribute more to society than what we take, or whatever.

@@Canadian_Eh_ICanadian, hah.

Lol

russia is not militarily involved in 85% of countries outside of theirs, unlike somebody else we know

What about the aggressive Ukrainians in the south who backed by Uncle Sam rejected a peace deal in early 2022?

@@get__some “militarily involved” what a delicate euphemism. Not the same as brutal invasion, destruction of power plants, bombing residential areas, leveling cities, kidnapping children. Etc. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Russia isn't a threat to anyone unless someone coughcoughNATOcoughcough breaks their promises and surrounds their country over time, and heavily arms its largest former Soviet province (Ukraine). Don't buy the propaganda: the enemy is within NATO and WEF/UN.

You are living comfortably in a heated house. You are part of the winning.

I love greed and comfort. I love it better than bread lines in a socialist hell.

I was Born 1960 UK, June can still be April like, sun worshipers and weather moaners should move else where if they do not like the UK climate😆 Gaz Yorkshire.

La Nina?

Same. Weather over Western Europe is fcrazy. I then relaxed again and put the question on the pile: "Nobody knows"

It's the tory government. They probably gave the summer weather to the highest bidder...

I've recently watched Clarkson farm again. If 2019 was so brutal, what is going to happen when it gets worse?

There is indeed a nature publication pointing to the risk of a shutdown occurring in this century with an estimate that it will most likely happen by mid century.

There’s a while cottage industry of so-called experts going on podcasts and selling books and feeling very good about themselves as they mix up cause and effect and say such things that the living standards have been going up and that they will continue to go up and that a bit of climate change isn’t gonna change that In the short term. Nobody really knows when the full impact of climate change will start to be felt, but to think today’s children won’t feel it is as the very least naive. I will give the critics this: many billions of people on this planet are so poor that they will never give up anything to combat climate change. The only people who truly can make sacrifices are we in the west and we have even been quite unwilling to do that. I also think we have a number of options to kick the can down the road like geoengineering and we in the west can just ditch out cars and start using buses when oil gets really expensive and there’s plenty of coal we can still burn anyway…

It's already slowed down significantly just the past few years.

He needs a helper. He is way deep in this and can't also make aesthetic refinements..

It's still a caricature, but it intended to alert to a serious issue and people thought it was just a figment of someone's imagination

The movie was seriously sped up, you can only got so much into a small time frame. But it does touch on some things that could be devastating. It is a warning. Because a crash of ecological systems could have quickly felt effects.

Bullshit. It is just a function of the low jet stream, probably more related to La Nina than anything.

He said the line!!!

It’s always good to know who you are!🤪

We are all Paul Beckwith on this blessed day

His name was Paul Beckwith

Some day, Paul's introduction might become for climate what it was, some ten years ago, for freedom of speech _"Je suis Charlie"_

I agrree we cannot give up. But it is now more about trying to limit the consequences of the coming crash.

@@russmarkham2197 guess one philosophy to have is that any landing that humanity can walk away from is a good landing

@@user-in9yx7mf8d That's a great way to put it.

co2 is plant food. if it drops below 200ppm, we're done

I’m in Florida also and noticing our natural rain patterns have been changing also

I live in New Orleans and the humidity here is worse than ever! Midday it's as hot as the blazes and at sunrise and sunset it's like a "cool" steamroom.

@@user-uo7fw5bo1o why live in such a climate?

I'm in Gainesville Florida. Chemtrails are being sprayed daily. Doesn't that have anything to do with the strange weather? I also heard of something called Nor Rad which is technology being used to manipulate the ionosphere. I think humans are causing these changes.

@@jahnavikeraval6839 mostly likely you are right.

It's becoming an unstable system

no it didn't. You are fantasizing it.

Yes. Yes. You are certainly doomed.

Isn't that special?

Join the club. I have had apocalyptic dreams for years, but they were just dreams, until now.🌎☠👽

I think you'll find, WE all are.

Probably, but while you're still breathing, you still have hope. The real question is: what is there that you can do to improve your chances of survival?

What has the Sahara dust to do with this topic?

@@hg6996 Nothing i think. Saharan dust gets blown towards South America mostly.

Most of that ends up on my car for some reason. The UK.

@@juliebarks3195 That only happens very rarely. We get it in Holland once every couple of years or so. That dust is considered a nutrient source for the Amazon where it normally ends up.

It also falls into the ocean, where it leads to algae bloom, which can take out quite a mass of carbon out of the atmosphere. One of the not well known sinks, ocean algae can take up more carbon than all the worlds rainforests combined

Actually the politicians are only doing what their capitalists overlords demand. So, it’s greed, not politics.

Ps just watched my neighbor doing his daily drive to town in his gas hog f350 to get a cup of coffee around 25 miles or so

​@@mrhappy4521 That is just crazy, man. I take public transit and I make my coffee at home. I'd still make it at home even if I was in that f350 guy's situation. Gas is expensive and so is coffee shop coffee especially Starbucks'.

my bike tires are low on air and thee is global alarming so Im trying to adapt by taking a bus but it has not been a good idea so far

@@mrhappy4521 Even worse than Al Gore's private jet.

If Japan could kill Godzilla then I’m sure they can solve this problem 😊👍🏼

Can you expand on your comment. How will this appear in 10 Years?

Might want to add starving to death to your list as weather patterns in agricultural regions become increasingly unpredictable and overall yields of staple grains decrease. But what do I know.

@@maxsmith695 there is the ipcc report for that if you are genuinely interested. The simplified version is understandable even without a scientific background.

@@kirkha100 that s what the amoc disruption means indeed. Changing the rain patterns is what will affect agricultural cultures the most.

​​​@@maxsmith695Not in 10 years, at least not likely, for AMOC breakdown. Isostatic effects will only happen after melting of enormous amounts of land ice. While that melting may well go to extremes this century, the bouncing back of earth mantel masses will take a bit longer. Within ten years, worldwide food crisis following stagnation of weather patterns - mega droughts in one place, large scale flooding in others, is entirely possible. Jet stream is already weakening, and that trend increases the chances such stagnant weather patterns occurring over extended periods.

I think they have lost touch...like watching children put out a fire

Great question. Is it possible to know this?

Live and learn.

Based on how we are exceeding all previous models in terms of climate change and ice melting I feel we could reasonably infer that yes it’s likely this may occur sooner as the planetary natural climate cycle is all interconnected.

Definitely more film theatrics than science... aka "a movie". Pretty rare you get both.

On a spinning planet, “What goes around, comes around.”.

Might change the raining and hurricanes patterns though. Temperature isn t everything, especially for agriculture. City mife is probably the easiest thing to adapt.

Or read Art Bell and Whitley Strieber's _The Coming Global Superstorm_ on which the movie is based but takes liberties with - what takes 3 months in the book takes only 7 days in the movie. 📽️ 🍿

Because of the long lived nature of CO2, stabilizing emissions still allows for heat energy to grow in the system. You have to reduce to zero for the system to stabilize, with time. (And if feedbacks aren't kicking in their own emissions by then, that is.) Granted, it will be a different climate state, but its better than the alternative of continued change.

By then? The permafrost is defrosting fast now,lol ✌️

@@OldJackWolfpeople do not appreciate the significance of this. Once it becomes unbearable, they will call for change. And the. Everyone will say they did not realize there is a lag, and the effects are irreversible. It’s tragic

From my understanding, the effects of heating from emissions are delayed by 30-40 years, so even if emissions dropped to zero tomorrow, the planet would still continue to warm. This is without positive feedback loops that would exacerbate the process.

@@Rnankn Billionaires buy bunkers - normal people buy comforting beliefs. What else should they do to maintain their mental health?

Seems to be shaping-up quite similar to last year. Another write-off.

thats is the blob attacking the British

My son will be doing his part as the youngest FBAN in the nation and holder of the prestigious 590 cert. Advanced Fire Behavior Analyst and a Captain in that world of mostly Deputy and Assistant Chiefs. He will make a big difference!

@maxsmith695 congrats on your son!

@@Corrie-fd9ww Thank you. His resume in 9 short years lists over 70 classes and in excess of 50 strike team deployments. He is of the opinion there is a right way to battle the campaign fires ( those over 10,000 acres) and a wrong way, or many wrong ways. The FBAN is the expert who is in the base camp in a trailer with a Ph.D level meteorologist and some assistants directing the Incident Commander where to place assets which tankers to divert to which branch of the fire and when to evacuate towns. He is one of 142 in the nation and the youngest at 32.

Europe would have deep freeze winters.

unfortunately it is likely that the AMOC would take 1000s of years at least to restart. There is a disconnect in the diagram shown by Paul. A "hysterisis" I can't spell this word though.

Ha fun, the religions. I think about family members of mine I no longer engage with who are likely looking at the raising temps and believing it is proof of God being angry with all the immorality - abortions, gays and the such, for example. People see what the want to see. When there are too many humans to be supported by the available biosphere whether the biosphere collapses OR we hit a tipping point of population which can no longer be supported the outcome is the same. I'm 62. This week Cleveland Ohio is predicted to hit 88/90 degrees F for seven days straight starting Monday, nighttime temps in the 70's. That is uncharted temp territory here. I hope to prevail on my week ahead but it will feel brutal I know. Be well all, stay as safe and chill as you can. 🙂

@@jbrandt3306 there was an18th century nun in South America, who predicted there will come a when the living will envy the dead. I do not recall her name. I read this 25 years ago. I often wondered what it could refer to. I think I know.

ESPECIALLY Evangelical Christian religions because they've been sold a bill of goods by unscrupulous preachers who often have a megachurch and a TV "ministry" or at least a podcast.

@@maxsmith695 I think you're right. I asked my AI to look for the source of the quote, but she could not find it.

fully agree with you.

Only if the weather follows the trends in the graphs. However, we're still adding gigatons of carbon to the already doubled amount in the atmosphere. Things may go over a tipping point, after which it could get out of hand pretty quick. Think ~20 years is quite possible

You should be angry at those who've duped us over and over w this same sort of doomsday predictions decades overdue.

@@Mrbfgray sorry, can't help you.

@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Just be skeptical. Not to suggest consensus is science, it is NOT, but the IPCC exists on the assumption of anthropogenic climate change and they expect *no significant economic costs this century,* due to human activities effect on climate.

@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Can U help yourself? Be skeptical. IPCC predicts negligible global economic impact from anthropogenic climate effects *this century.*

@@Mrbfgray this isn't about money. It's about living it's self.

A weakening magnetic field makes the Jet stream unstable.

That is a good point. And I think scientists have already concluded that the Arctic would already be ice free in the summer if the AMOC had not weakened. But if AMOC shuts down, Arctic will freeze over. No more blue ocean Arctic. What happens depends on the timing. If AMOC keeps going for decades, we will see blue ocean Arctic for a while.

But melting the whole Greenland will take many centuries.

Hey welcome to Canadian weather! 😂

If it was hemp, it would pretty much float and the weight factor would mostly be eliminated. Out of water, it would likely be unable to support it’s own weight when fully extended. Steel cables have to be very large to support their weight at that distance even when in water.

Not Dylan - Barry McGuire. Had to give him credit since it is such a great song.

You’re soon going to be living through the period in time know as “the great famine” and it’s not know as “great” because it brings you loads of sweets and honey-good luck with that ✌️

Gov are also creating a starvation to control the people and have them begging for gov.'Help" Communist dictatorships used starvation to over take counties through out history. Stalin starved out millions of Ukrainians. history.​@@scottanderson3751

A.I. will be used to determine best market strategies for promoting either Ranch Flavored or Teriyaki flavored Soylent Green, with its proprietary special nutritional ingredient.

Americans are preparing for the great famine by becoming super obese and storing up huge quantities of fat.

@@PaulHBeckwith 🙃

Many cubic kilometers of fresh water would require millions of tons of salt which would first have to be mined, then transported to site etc. A colossal task beyond our means.