Great video! Just subscribed! I actually wrote my undergrad thesis on how to apply the Kelly Criterion to sports betting. I ran 4 different bankroll simulations and came away with a profit on each simulation.
The image you scrolled through at 0:40 is the kind of shit that motivated me to start my own channel because sports betting RU-vid is filled with nothing but that kind of garbage. I am glad I am not alone in trying to shift sports betting RU-vid in a different direction. I liked this video, I think the point you made starting at 8:04 is key. Living in Las Vegas for my 2nd time around, I've met plenty of people here at books that moved here with no job and $5000 in their pocket and think they can turn that into a sports betting income. Quick rags to riches stories in sports betting just don't happen unless you get extremely lucky. You'd likely have similar odds just placing that $5000 in the closest slot machine and hoping to hit the jackpot. Turning $5k into $100k could happen, if you had solid angles, edges, and a ton of patience - years of patience.
Captain Jack this video was definitely worth the wait. So many ideas, never thought of making lists for so many angles. Everyone, show some love to the channel, hit the like button 👍
That is probably my most important video - and one of the least viewed. RU-vid even de-monetized it because they think it promotes risky behavior. 🙄 Apparently, nobody ever loses on the internet.
Hi Captain Jack Andrews, congrats on getting to the highly-coveted 10k subscribers mark! Just stumbled upon this video, but I believe you're the same person who was on the GWAE podcast I listen to. You have a great way of explaining things, so I'll be tuning into more of your videos. Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge!
May I suggest consider in betting seems you can get an edge doing this being having great success doing this.If you're good with math you can do it Dfs is tough the winning lineup changes everyday
you cant predict you can win in a series of plays the whale uses a 3 game series and increases if losing need one of 3. bet team a b c ab ac bc increase if lose then go back down when winning@@randyharris3175
Just watched this video for the 5th time...I keep coming back to it. I'm mostly a "one-trick pony" with only a few regulated outs, so am looking to develop more angles while turning to off-shore books....but also starting to think about the concept of "scaling horizontally." Outside of what you mentioned in your video, any good resources out there for learning about the mechanics of betting partners? Perhaps a 15k subscriber special?? On a somewhat related note, how feasible is all this for someone who has a 9-to-5 job with a wife and young kids......asking for a friend.
Good Luck to all the future bettors , The way the UFC and NBA ( heck even twitch streamers) are now pushing sports betting to the extreme , alot of naïve and young people are gonna damage their lives but cheers to hoping your content can help people with this. Every talking head on sports television is now suddenly a "sharp"
This is a great statement to make, and I think this is why tutorials like this can help the basic bettor. If I was only allowed to bet 1 sport, MMA would be it. It's a super inefficient market and you can get decent limits down AND the inplay odds are a joke, as well as massive arbitrage opportunities available.
@captain jack andrews @13:42 can you help me understand the EV being 10% and not 40%? with the previous example you said, be honest with your EV and then said that a 20% EV is unrealistic. Then with this next example you provide a $1000 dollar bet X 4 ($4000) and a $400 dollar EV X 4 ($1600) so back to your previous formula; EV / BET = EDGE % 1600/4000 = 40% Disclaimer: I am totally new to this and am just wanting to make sure I am understanding this correctly. Thank you.
Assume we are doing well at a sports book that will soon likely limit our action. Should we try a small withdrawal to keep our account balance low or will that be a red flag and we should keep betting and then cash out once we get chopped? Great video as always!
Your mileage may vary...but many sportsbooks review customer accounts when they make a withdrawal. So to stay under the radar you may want to keep betting. All of this assumes your money is safe - which in a regulated US sportsbook it would be.
I try to lose on certain apps when promo betting. And i use whole numbers example $100. I used to bet like $96 or $108. It looks suspicious. Pointsbet actually wrote me and said i cant use ALL their promos. So i'll skip a few. Only been flagged by The Score. They closed my account and sent me my winnings
My question is about getting banned. I live in Colorado, use 8 books, and current bankroll of 5.6k. Would I get banned before I get to 200k in each book? That is my goal. Thanks Captain Jack!
Before you get to 200k in each book? Well, yes. Most of those Colorado books wouldn't tolerate $200k wins. However, when you face severe limiting in any of your accounts, that's the time to think about scaling horizontally.😉
the whale in vegas ahs been winning big for years and won 660 k on 2 teamer years ago he uses a round robin groups mostly and a pct of bankroll then lowr and higher when winning and makes a profit on huge bets someones he is restricted
After 10 years of betting on sports I've finally become disciplined enough to consistently make money to the point where I could quit my job if I wanted. My advice, take your time and build a bank, be selective in your wagers, bet what you think should happen not think could happen. For example, I bet $2000 on Ala over Cinn, TB over Jets, Bills over Falcons, NE over Jags, GB over Minn, 5 team parlay made me $1470 profit, a weeks pay! Never bet more than units on a single bet.
stake is a great crypto sports betting, theres lots of others for those in areas with limited options no ID or info needed more than a email and password..
The last part about getting others to make bets thru ur advice is not something a winner would say. Someone who is making real money on sports betting would avoid the hassle, stress by using other players esp when they lose. Other than that I I appreciate ur other points, my advice after 20yrs+ of betting their are sports that are much easier to bet and make money on, it's something most pundits or analysts don't talk about much. I make more money in Volleyball betting, luck plays a small role in sport, no draws, which make the winning bet clearer
I think you misunderstood that point. You’re not selling your plays to someone else, you’re using other people to take advantage of low-hanging fruit that sportsbooks have a low tolerance for.
I have found that selected unders in NFL games is my angle. I am hitting about 75 percent using 3 to 5 games per week, also teasing some games down to enhance the odds.
Week 16: Detroit vs KC -12.5, ML -667. But my spread/ML converter says should be -1021. Is there +EV in that ML -667 since not proportionate to spread? Enjoy your channel, 1st year bettor.
Got a few of those already: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-GNrH30cZubw.html (Building a Bankroll from Almost Nothing) ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-B6aklZWN9wM.html (Building a Better Bankroll) ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-iJ_JezW09L0.html (Winning without Math or Models)
you did admit it's going to be VERY HARD. And the suggestion/requirement to have $100k to get started reduces the # of people who can do this :). Maybe you weren't serious on that. Making decent $$$ on a zero sum proposition (and sports betting isnt even zero sum, the closest to that are the betting exchanges which the US public is still locked out from) really defies mathematical logic unfortunately. Sports bettors (and I bet the UK horse races daily, so I'm one) face a lot of obstacles, only a very few can make money. It's unfortunately nothing like the ridiculous mania in the stock market, from Tesla on down to the sub-penny stocks. The Fed offers up hundreds of billions in virtually free $$$ (0% interest rates) and that juices the whole market. We don't have a Fed helping us lol. Without a back-tested, historically based model using Big Data (or at least sufficient data), beating 'The Wisdom of the Crowd' is not going to happen.
Great video! I have a question for you. Pointsbet and fanduel running the $500 risk free promotion and $1k risk free promotion. New user and wondering if i can sign up to both and take advantage. Will be betting on soccer mainly European leagues. 3 scenarios. Win, lose or draw. So doing a win on one book for a favorite and win on another book for $500. Thoughts? If a draw happens i get $500 risk free bets on both books and bet again on different game. Thanks
You can and should sign up for both, but playing them against each other in a 3-way market is probably not the best usage. I made a video on how to get the most out of your free bets (risk-free bets are essentially the same thing). Due to the higher vig in a 3-way market, you may find much better value in a 2-way market taking a large underdog or "flipping the script." ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-YLBzR6Kks3Y.html
Captain Jack thanks for all your great content. I was wondering if you'd shed some light on a certain scenario with live middling that I have been wondering about. Just say I place a bet on a game where the OVER/UNDER is 158.5. It is an extremely high scoring first half, and at half-time the Live Betting OVER/UNDER is now at 209.5. Would you now bet the under 209.5 to try and create a middle opportunity or would it be better from an EV standpoint to just let your original bet ride since it now looks very safe. Thanks again for your time and appreciate any insight you can give.
On one side you have a very advantageous wager (the over 158.5) and on the other you have the current fair market value (209.5). While it certainly lowers your risk to shoot for that middle, it also lowers your overall EV. That 209.5 has a slight -EV. Now if you knew that 209.5 would be the crest of that market and it would likely drop from there, you could reasonably have +EV on that wager as well. However, without that market knowledge, I'd recommend sticking with your very +EV over 158.5.
I am a runner in Las Vegas and me and my team help millionaires get more money down on games. Sucks that the books keep lowering peoples betting limits.
Cap Jack, why are sports books allowed, by state regulators, to deny a law-abiding player access to bet just because they’re winning. Isn’t that a little like a restaurant denying a customer to continue eating there just because they always order the discounted “meal deal”?
I agree, Cool One, it seems disingenuous to offer a product for gambling and then get upset when someone gambles with you and wins. I think we're going to see books rising up soon which actively want to take wagers from all customers, not just the suckers. That's why it's important to have a competitive environment for sports betting, you need to have the room for all segments of the industry to have a chance to pursue capitalism.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Good answer, Cap. J. "disingenuous" so true. I'll continue to lobby (likely through voting) to open up competition to gambling in my state (Illinois). Thank you
@@CaptainJackAndrews why would a sports book not allow winners...there are so few in sports gambling....I hope some sports book open up that take all bets...
@@michaelhenderson2657 You're absolutely correct. Many analysts have shown that the truly sharp segment is roughly 2% of bettors. Yet, some books are absolutely petrified of being destroyed by that 2%. On the other hand, they'll gladly run promos where even losing wagers win. Or sink hundreds of millions into marketing.
@@CaptainJackAndrews You Americans don t really understand the concept of betting and what it implies.I ve read some posts here about offers of 500 or 1000 risk free bet.Come to Europe,and u r gonna see what sharp lines are.In UK the best bookie offers a 100£ welcome bonus,and the others have insane wagering requirements.At the end of the day,having a sports book is a business.It s all about money.People are not banned (gubbed/limited ) because they are winning,they are banned because they are dangerous for the bookie.The bookmaker is not searching in his algorithm how much did u win,he s looking where u placed bets with edge.So,like in every other business, they try to protect their investment.Hence the limiting or closing accounts.
hey jack, i really appreciate some of the content you put out I wanted to tell you to pick the Lightning tonight vs the 'canes. I got inside info. Take care man. I wouldn't screw you. If you bet, bet wisely. I go 5 goals but that I am only 75% sure, meaning under 6 goals.
3 года назад
6 goals man football (soccer) betting is way more profitable man - our record speaks for it's self
@ I know in my dream I took 1 off but eventually put it back, 30 secs there was a goal but I put under over 6 and it was a push. I didint bet 5 goals, plus I took under 6.5 goals at half time or so when I had a chance. That was just to back it up with another bet. What your model. Whats your stats? Do you give them for free. I could use your picks and give you my personnal feedback filtered.
3 года назад
@@mrlalo3077 mostly football (soccer) tips will be uploading my feb report in few days record speaks for its self
So I purchased the donbest screen for college basketball and realized that i was betting wrong this entire time. I don't have the screen for baseball because i use a free screen
I'm totally confused. I've spent weeks researching and studying the numbers in sports betting, watched probably 100 hours of videos. I'm incredible in math. I'm a math teacher. But I don't get this video. How on earth can you calculate your EV for anything in sports betting? I mean the odds are the odds. Say we choose one of your examples, free throw props. How can a number be put to what you expect out of that. Sure we would all love 65% win percentage. But there is no way to just arbitrarily pick that number. And if you could, you wouldn't need to bet on anything other than free throw props. But how can you even know what your expected value would be for any of those you wrote on the list? And where on earth does the number come from? LOL
Sports betting is not about making accurate predictions, it is about making predictions that are *less wrong* than those of the sportsbook you are betting into. Take, for instance, a coin-flip. Nobody knows if it'll land heads or tails, but with a fair amount of certainty we can safely say the odds of landing Heads is 50%. If I offer you +105 to bet heads and you wager $100 on heads, then if it lands heads you win $105, if it lands tails you lose $100. You know that 50% of the time you win $105 and 50% you lose $100. Your Expected Value is $52.50 - $50 = $2.50 or 2.5% of each $100 you wager. Same thing is true in sports. If your probability is better than the implied probability of the wager, you have +EV. Coming up with a better probability than the market isn't easy, but it is also not hard for something you may have spent more time analyzing than the sportsbook did.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Thank you for your reply. I'm trying very hard to understand this. I definitely understand all of that. I guess my main question is with sports, where does your number come from for your probability. It is easy with a coin toss. But say just because you know that a team has had some injuries and you think you have an edge, how do you possibly put an actual number to that edge. It seems totally arbitrary to me. Where you said "your probability" is better than the implied probability. How do you put some kind of number to your probability. It seems to be a total up in the air guess. Where does the number come from for your probability?
There are many different ways to develop a projection on a game. Let's start with a basic frequentist approach. There have been roughly 25,000 games played in MLB in the last 10 years. In situations where there is a runner on 2nd with nobody out, a run is scored 61.2% of the time. Heading into the 10th inning (where each team starts with a runner on 2nd) a sportsbook offers a bet on "Will this team score a run in this half-inning?" YES -120 NO +100 The sportsbook is saying a run will be scored 54.55% of the time, but your projection, based on historical stats over 25,000 games is 61.2%. Your projection is not totally up in the air. Quantifying your projection can take many forms. You could build a statistical model. You could use Bayesian techniques. You could run a simulation. In the end, the sportsbook doesn't have a crystal ball either. You're just trying to be less wrong than they are.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Ok I'm starting to get it. In college I excelled at statistics, finished upper level course with a 104 grade while tutoring others. But I have 2 problems. I don't remember much of that and worse, the knowledge I did retain actually gets in the way of wrapping my brain around situations where set numbers or predictions are often somewhat arbitrary. But I do believe a lot of this is finally sinking in. Thank you so much. Maybe in the next few weeks I will have completed all of your videos and have it embedded at a level that is nearing yours because your content is exactly what will make this journey into sports betting much more fun for someone like myself than just picking who I think will win. The numbers are what SERIOUSLY intrigue me. Thanks again.
I recommend reading this book: The Logic of Sports Betting amzn.to/2XGN8pT It's a quick, easy read. It'll help explain a lot of the concepts without making you feel overwhelmed.
@@dj4monie it took me 4,000 to become proficient in sports betting ✅ ......im now a little over 15,000 hours. But I would say around 4,000-5,000 hours invested into learning, making mistakes, & evolving? you won't have to buy picks from anyone. I sacraficed a little over 4.5 years mabye a bit more to learn what I know but thats what it takes. My problem is I look at social media and people that didn't even put in anything CLOSE to what I put in teaching other people like they know shit when they know nothing 🤮👎 They haven't failed enough to learn HOW to succeed and these fools should definitely not be teaching new sports bettors anything because their just *a little more ahead than the people their giving advice too* and besides the sports betting frauds I hate those types of people as my close second.
So basically, line shop and multi-account. Oh, and make a list of all the money you're going to make. Always important to have a list of income before figuring out how to earn it.
Why don't you just do a bunch of videos like Sport Betting Truth does and prove you can even do this. Use your models that I gave you a hard time over in 2019.
Funny you mention this. I had been on an absolute tear betting College Basketball 2nd halves over the last 10 days or so using my machine learning model to bet CBB 2nd halves. Won about 40 units in that span keeping my unit size relatively consistent. Last night I decided to double my unit size and went 7-14. Accounting for doubled unit size I lost about 15 units alone. Murphy's Law always comes into play here - whenever you make a drastic change in unit sizes, your hot run ends. I was due for a regression because I had been hitting about 61% the last 4 days, and I still have faith in my model, but raising your unit sizes is a lot easier said than done. One more bad day and I wipe out all the progress I made in the previous 10. Ultimately if your model is sound and you have an actual edge a bad day or two won't matter in the long run. But a lot of people will get greedy after a hot run and drastically increase their unit sizes too much too soon and won't be able to recover from a downturn. I think the best way is to slowly increase your unit size in proportion to your bankroll growth and not do what I did and make a drastic leap i.e. doubling your unit size.
Jack, my starting bankroll was about 2k and I have gone down to about $300. I have been pretty consistent, playing around $100 per play, and for bigger plays I may put $200. Any suggestions on how to get back up at this point? When your bankroll gets this low, what do you normally do?
In my Turn Your NFL Season Around video I talk about something I’ve termed Mooch Mode. You take a minimal risk approach and take advantage of promos and bonuses as best you can while you look to rebuild bankroll. The other option is taking a break and rebuilding your bankroll outside of betting so you’re ready to come back and take another shot. I’ll also point out that betting 5-10% of your bankroll on each play means simple variance could lead to this result in short time. If you’re going to take a shot by overbetting relative to your edge lthen you need to accept that sometimes busting out will be the result. Recoup, replenish and reload when you can.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Thanks Jack! One more question..Assuming that I am able to build by bankroll back up. If I am betting $100 per bet, at what point of your bankroll do you take money out and pay yourself? After a positive week, or how does that work?
The greater your bankroll relative to your betsize the greater the cushion you have against being in a situation where you can't afford to bet anymore. If you are betting $100 per bet, you really should have a bankroll of around $10k. If you win, you use your winnings to buy a bigger bankroll which creates a money multiplier effect. If you take winnings out of your bankroll you are decreasing your growth potential and increasing your risk of ruin. Realistically, with a $10k bankroll and a $100 unit size your expected profit is between $50-70/week if you are a winning bettor. Taking anything out beyond that is negative growth that will ultimately come back to haunt you.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Gotcha. I guess I was looking at this as a way to make a side income, but obviously $50-70 per week would not really help much as it relates to making additional income on the side. My goal was to try and make around $1500-2500 per month.
To do that you really wouldn't want to try to handicap sports - you'd be better off just focusing on low-hanging fruit. Promos, bonuses, and situations where you have very good EV for minimal cash outlay. If you're in the right regulated state you can pick off $50/day in EV easily. Again, as I say in the video, there's no style points awarded here. If you're trying to make money at sports betting by picking the winners of games, especially if you have a limited bankroll, you're doing it wrong.
All this sounds good but hes really doing the same thing as the other people selling information.So you go to more sports books but you still have to beat the vig so how does that show you how to beat the vig.It doesnt. I have certain ways to beat the sports books that I know works.
well, with all due respect, this video does not show you how to find +ve EV. If it does, it's too general. Without +ve, there is no point in betting. So this video is a waste of time (unless you already have positive edge).
Thanks for watching and commenting. I purposely don't spell out exactly how to generate +EV because in any market that is tending towards efficiency (and sports betting is an example of that), it would only speed up market efficiency to tell you exactly what contained EV. In other words, it would benefit nobody as the information would quickly be irrelevant after the market adjusts. I do feel I give you plenty of tips and ideas both in this video as well as in my other videos. I've pointed out low-hanging fruit, I've produced content on how you can create your own models, I've shown how other sharps approach sports betting to broaden your own horizons. If you're looking to be spoon fed, you're definitely not going to satisfied with this channel. I'm here to help guide you along the path, but you'll need to take the steps yourself in your journey to become a proficient sports bettor.
@@CaptainJackAndrews Thanks for the response. I understand what you're saying, but the title is misleading. I'm not suggesting the content isn't useful, but it certainly doesn't teach you how to make 100k a year. If you disagree with my statement, let me know why.
The title is because there are a lot of videos on RU-vid promising you can make money betting sports. They are almost all a scam or worthless fluff. My goal was to show it can be done with some organization and hard work. Again, I'm not going to say "bet teams playing on short rest who have traveled more than 500 miles" because even if that was a profitable angle, pointing everyone to it will begin to eliminate that inefficiency. Giving people an exact plan would only invalidate that plan. Instead, a lot of the information I gave in the video was between the lines. I think there's more in that video than you're seeing.
@@SuperDangerousMouse .. Having done this successfully for over 2 decades, the video has all the components to easily make 6 figures per year. Granted, peoples location for shopping numbers and today's companies so quick to limit anyone trying to win can impede the process, but it's out there. The onus is still on people to take the information provided, interpret what fits their situation and go forth and prosper.
Pickup winning teams when their losing to come back and win. Bet against losing teams while their winning to drop the ball in the end and LOSE. Win or lose learn from your mistakes and if you lut in 4,000 hours understanding that concept and combining it with some other basic information? You'll do really well until vegas updates their sports betting algorithms 👍 If you dont understand that? then read it slowly multiple times until you do & bet on paper BEFORE you commit to real money. Best of luck and hopefully this wasent to complicated 😉👌
Sorry but it simply is not possible to win at sports betting. The public knows the house edge for casino table games and slot machines, but has anyone seen the house's edge in sports betting? It's probably worse than horse racing when you consider the short payoff amount when you win. Bet an NFL team to win, say $20, and give the points--guess what? That bet is a coin flip like betting red or black in roulette. Trouble is when you win you get paid around $16 instead of $20 so when you win you lose. So bet with your head not over it.
I understand your skepticism Dean, however, the difference with sports betting as opposed to a finite math equation like roulette, is it is your opinion versus the bookmaker's opinion. There is plenty of opportunity to be less wrong than the bookmaker. They have to create a line on hundreds of different games and bets, while you get to choose which bet you think you have an edge on. On top of that, there are many promotions and bonuses that give the player a mathematical edge. If a sportsbook gives you a free $200 and requires you to wager it through one time in whatever chunks you desire, you could make ten $20 bets and even with the house edge, you'd expect to still be able to profit $190. If sports betting is not for you, that's fine. However, there's a lot of opportunity out there for people who enjoy matching their wits against the bookmaker. Especially in the 26 states where it is legal.
