Hear this interview while I'm building a model is so disgusting... And I don't mean it because interview was bad, quite the opposite that was a great interview, but for me I can't afford $100 monthly for get this type of information like all the sports books lines around the world and looking for a handicap with one or two points of EV betting to understand it really better... I will believe that I'm just starting. Thank you so much for all that I learned from here. ❤
The lesson is think outside of the box, discover your own angle, use math and test it. Then keep it to yourself, if make one post about it thousands can end up using your angle. People are missing the point of this video.
Taking the time to watch these professionals talk is how I've learned most of my betting knowledge. This interview is amazing. When I went to read about Dink, turns out he passed away. This is very sad but I'm glad this interview has so many fews. He seemed like a pretty good guy. RIP Sir and Thank You
Good old fashion collusion to stimulate dumbasses who flunk at basic math to make them get in the game and donate their hard earned money to the rigged sportsbook industry Get the feeling that DINK is a shareholder with self interests here..
Bro thank you 🙏🏾 I love sports betting and try to do as much research as possible for my own “ edge “ and I’ve always heard people say “ you have to have an edge against the sports books “ now I finally do thank you ! Aw man you don’t know how good And grateful I feel right now.
I started making videos during the pandemic. This one is over 3 yrs old. Sports betting has many facets, this video and my others only scratch the surface. Check out the rest if you're interested in learning more.
Captain I know you're smart enough to realize there is much more incentive to not let sharp betters play. A sharp better help shaping a line does no good if they don't have a large amount of business and even then it is probably not profitable as they can get their numbers from other ways. There just is not incentive for a sportsbook to allow sharp action. Your pursuits are noble but misguided.
Edge = P(w)*Odds- P(L)= P(w)*0.91-(1-P(w)) = 1.91P(w)-1. Setting Edge=0, then 1.91P(w) =1, so P(w= 1 /1.91= .524 ;52.4% For -110 game decimal odds = 0.91. So for positive edge you P(w) must be greater than 52.4
Good stuff. Obviously, very smart. Surprises me that 'a' is used instead of 'an' when using before a word that begins w a vowel. An indication. Not, a indication. Thats a negative EV statement. 😂
Are you referencing at 7:16 when I said it's not "a really strong indication?" That's the only time I used the word indication that I could find, and I used it grammatically correct.
I'll have to rewatch to see where I noticed. Im not proud that Im a grammar nerd. Just cant help myself. With that said, I dont care. Your videos are, BY FAR, the most insightful, helpful ones out there. Great stuff. Thank U.
maybe this is a dumb question; but I subtracted -150 and -130 as implied odds and it comes out to about 3.5%. But if you use -150(60%) as your ¨true odds/true probability¨ and use the equation in the video with -130 to see how much of edge you have it comes to 6.15%. What is the difference between these two methods and why the two different outcomes. Thx.
You calculated the difference in odds, but that's not your edge relative to the wager. For instance, if the implied probabilities were 6.5% and 10%, that method would still produce a 3.5% edge. However, that's nearly a 54% edge relative to the probability the bet wins.
Ok, so I grabbed a +800 where some books are -1200 and others -1400. I wasn't sure if I should just grab a +220 when the other side is -250. If I multiply those odds by 4. Then favorite is around -1000 not -1400. I don't know the math I just didn't know if I was paying higher vig grabbing the +800 over the +220. As you can see I'm a novice 😆
El Capitan, How you doing? I was looking at 4 team parlay all at -110 at +1200. I was wondering if its better to parlay multiple teams to get bigger odds for example this parlay or a +300 dog? I'm still trying to think of how to maximize the bonus.
I guess my only question is trying to figure out what my probability to win is for each wager..that’s the x in the formula. Am I missing something here?
