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It's not intuitive but important to note there are 18 combos of AA, KK and QQ. And 16 combos of AK, meaning 53% of the opponent's hands crush him, not 75%. I know you didn't say 75%, but you did say it like there were significantly more hands that crush him which isn't the case.
At that point all Hero’s holdings got there. Not too difficult a fold but a river check is a tough call. Villain can’t feel good about sets and QJ etc. I would have down bet river if not check. Try to induce or at least get a little extra.
How to make $3500 in less than a minute: make a somewhat thin call preflop when you put your opponent on a potential premium hand, donk bet on the flop despite a decent chance of being behind based on your preflop read, hit a two outer on the turn then have your check raise called despite how strong that move looks given everything that's happened before. Basically: stars align.
@@ThomasIsGayForMe You're dumb or what ? He fold because it was easy to him to read the hand of his opponent... So when you know that you haven't the best hand, you will call? Pffff what a dumb lol
Only way to play pocket aces for ace crack jinx folks is to go hard pre flop and as long as there are no three suited or a pair on flop, hit all in. This way you can steal that pre flop bet.
When you check raise the turn, you’re signaling such a strong hand. Like set or better - at most 2 pair. If you check called and then pushed, I think Aces will call like 80% of the time.
Hard to rep the straight draw because the flop is hard. A legit straight draw on turn would’ve been 97, J9 - but that’s hard to continue on flop, let alone the pre flop action. Let’s look at maybe A3, A4, which is a bit more plausible - but hard to imagine with that much equity you’d go all in, too. Flush draw and overs? Maybe QJc to also have a gut shot… possibly. I think maybe that play could be balanced with any set, but IMHO it’ll be hard to rep a straight draw with a push.
A couple reasons: 1. If BTN has AK (16 combos, compared to 18 combos of QQ, KK, AA) I’m likely ahead and I don’t want action checking through giving everyone a free card. 2. In case he does have QQ+, I’m setting my own price, because it’ll be tough for me to fold an overpair to a single bet anyway
@@BrantzenPoker if he has 18 combos of hands that beat you and 16 you win against you. You aren't "likely ahead". You are likely behind. Referenced by the fact there are more hands that beat you. I think you need to revisit math. 18>16
@@nex8000 😂😂 Nono the first point was given scenario 1 where he has AK, I’m most likely ahead of the other players, not JUST him. I also realize 18>16. But a $150 bet to win a pot of $365 doesn’t need to work 50% of the time. Technically, if everyone folds 29% of the time or higher, it’s a profitable bet. And that’s in a black and white world discounting any additional equity realization if people just call (like what happened)
@@BrantzenPoker Ok I understand now. Either way though your logic makes no sense. If his range is QQ-AA and AK then the logic you claimed doesn't work. You are saying to "deny equity from AK". But you are then ignoring that his range is heavily weighted towards hands that are ahead of you. You need to consider the whole range when deciding to bet for value/deny equity. You are NOT betting for value here against AK. You are betting for value against QQ+, AK. Which again, makes zero sense since you have an equity disadvantage against that range. Sure you deny equity against AK, but you are essentially are throwing dead money into the pot when he has an overpair and you are drawing to 2 outs. you aren't setting your own price. The other person has the option to raise.... "Technically, if everyone folds 29% of the time or higher, it’s a profitable bet" Yeah and technically if I get AA every hand I can just jam preflop everyhand and its still plus EV! You aren't getting folds 29% of the time given the range you described. I'm not sure if you even get a fold at all, ever. He's never folding his overpairs on the flop. I don't see why you'd fold AK to that sizing on the flop either. Even if he's super tight, it's only going to work like 5-10% of the time. And the folds are going to be exclusively AK with no backdoor draw, which are hands you want to be calling a value bet.... The only way I could ever get behind what you are saying is if you think the opponent is so tight he is just always going to fold his overpairs by the river unimproved... Maybe thats the case since it happened here. Or you are just super obvious and he pegged you to give up on turn unless you had a strong hand. Either way you aren't betting for equity denial at that point, you are just str8 up barreling with 1010 to bluff on a board that does not connect with his range. Which is fine, but its not the logic you are representing. Either way I don't even mind the flop bet in general. Its just the logic doesn't make sense given the range of hands you think he has and your reasoning behind the bet.
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@@BrantzenPoker yeah check jam turn or lead jam the river .... that near min raise check raise is just so strong and way under-bluffed... for that reason I actually use it as a bluff a decent amount, but its folded to me the vast majority of time. Actually weakest looking option is by far just leading the turn, check raising spooks people.
To be fair, if we boiled it down to the simplest math equation (we’d need to go much more in depth for better results) 1. 16/34 combos of AK, villain folds. ($365)*(16/34)= +$171.76 2. 18/34 combos of QQ+, villain raises, we fold and lose all equity. (-$150)*(18/34)= -$79.41 Added together this yields a positive outcome. However, of course there are other variables such as opponent calls with AK, or just flat calls with QQ+ giving us a chance to realize our equity, or other opponents entering the flop.
Donking into 4 way 3-bet pot pretty mathematically unsound idk. SB, UTG can easily have 88, 22, 55 , AXclubs. You’re running math against 1 player that stayed in instead of the board and ranges
@@BrantzenPoker Your second scenario falls apart because he he HAD aces and DIDN’T raise. Therefore, you’re more liable to lose more money with your overpair on later streets, lowering your EV significantly.
Tbh you should have flat called that turn if you were tryna get tricky w the check I think it’s the reason you left some value on the River because he made a pretty solid fold there
This is the type of player at my home game that we usually take money from. And once in awhile he do some dumb shit like this, but no cameras around to capture it.
Yeah my flop donks are really only in multi-way pots. Heads up I have almost no donk spots, but in multi-way, flops will often check through as players are forced to play more face up. So I might choose to donk if I think I likely have the best hand but it’s extremely vulnerable
@@BrantzenPoker SO sets would still be in the C/R line what about draws? what I'm curious about is do you have to balance these spots at your level and at $2/5. I can see some overs with Gutshot and flush redraw as a possible candidate, if your opponent has history with you isn't he just printing money by calling and jamming turn?
I think you should always Check that Flop unless you would lead out with monster-hands frequently as the non-3-better-pre. He put you on a possible-set from that point on. Then your Check-raise-Turn, you’re never bluffing after a weird-flop-lead. So, you gave away the strength of you hand by that point, and buddy wanted to see what you did on the River. At that point I think you should bet small (25-33% pot) to get a Call. If you knew he was a good oppo, you know he would fall for a fake-bluff-jam.
Why would you ever donk lead the flop? If you check the flop, he bets you call, same on the turn but instead of essentially minraising, you could’ve jammed and got all the money in
My play on this hand: On the turn if you think your opponent has AA/KK/QQ you should half pot or more(?) bet and not check raise. A check-raise will give alert to your opponent's overpair while lead betting the turn will disguise your hand and make him think you have like A8 suited, A10 suited, JJ/QQ/KK or a suited connector going for a runner runner draw. River should be value bet at least 1/3 of pot .
You hit a miracle 2-outer, and a good player made a disciplined lay down, I'd wager everything I own that he stacked you, and went home in a limo, and you had to bum $30 to get a cab home.
Checking the turn is a big error unless facing a hyper aggressive sort. But you already pegged him as tight and heavily leaning towards AK/QQ+ Just bet the turn and river. About 300 and 700 is in the right zone. He will probably call, especially since the board has several draws. The check raise should get him out unless you are a known wild man. If this line makes him fold, you were never going to stack him.
Check raising the turn is so strong and strange, especially after leading on the flop. If you were bluffing on the flop you are going to continue taking the lead on the turn. If you are trying to pot control you will check, call. I can't imagine ever check raising the turn there given the action as a bluff, meaning you should probably never take that line for value either. If you had led out on the turn and he raises you, then you can call, and check raise the river without being as suspicious. But the only two options really were to lead, call on the turn or check, call the turn.
Why bet flop what 3/4 hands he could have best you? Optimal post flop play depends on your table image. For an average image, the following is probably best against an OMC. Flop Check /Call Turn Check /Call River Lead Jam Against an aggressive player do all the same except on the river. Bet very small, to look like a blocker bet…. Then almost all of the opponents hands will feel compelled to raise. Either as bluffs or value.
this scenario: check after flop, fold if under pressure, if check back see 10 lead with small raise. see 9 think 6s and 7s, play intimidatingly ultra agressive. dgaf if they fold
Would I have done this? Set mining isn't terrible here because of position and stack depth - so ok. Donk lead is terrible, basically setting money on fire. Check-raise is ok, but not best. Better just to lead out. When you lead out you can have 99, JJ, and QQ. When you check raise you're saying you have 88 or TT. You can lead for $400, and then lead river for $1400 and get a lot more money from AA or KK.
I like the lead out. You have range equality or close and nut advantage. Most turns and rivers will make that even more true. Other lead out hands would be 9c8c, Ac8c, 7c6c and sets. WIth all these hands, you are happy to reraise all in and your opponent will be facing a set or a monster draw and will have equity to call your range. In this case, you just fold to a raise. At best he has AcKc and you should call, but otherwise, he has an overpair and you can only call a small raise if very deep.
You should check the flop so the over pair bets. Then on the turn you check and he will bet again and then you call. River comes out and no matter what he does you bet big. He will either reraise or call thinking you bluffed.
I like the raise with 10s because you can have more club combos than him. Where he really only has AK clubs. It also works as a block bet against over pair. He is deep and would want to pot control on a wet board. But if clubs came and no ten you have to commit to that story you made a flush. Check raise looked so nutted. If you bluff flop and bink turn keep betting like your bluffing. If he had AK clubs he gets to check and free river.
I think the right move at the end was to check the river instead of the all in or just call the turn then check the river and re raise him looking like a bluff.
Something similar happened to me before. I had KK in the SB or BB. UTG jammed, the next guy jammed, and the guy after that also jammed. I honestly considered folding, but this isn't a 10K... I was playing a 3$ tournament, and figured these players would do this with A10 or a pair of 7s. Turns out they had AK, AK and AA. I was actually dead preflop with KK.
I might have waited one more street to spring the trap. And the preceding streets' bets would've been less nutty and more milky. Try to setup a low SPR river shove.
I like to lead the turn here and not check. It's so likely your opponent has QQ KK AA that i feel he will call two bets. So $450 on the turn and jam the river. Makes it more difficult for him to fold compared to when you throw a check raise to $800 in there. It feels very strong that check raise.
You call depending on implied odds. What s his stack behind. You have 12% of hiting your 10 on the flop. If you do , how much can it generate in extra chips, out of his stack
My favorite part of poker shorts taking over is no matter what is happening the comments are full of people saying OP is a moron. I have legit learned nothing because every single play is apparently bad 😂😮
He was the pre-flop aggressor, you should have check called both the flop and definitely the turn, then shove it on the river. A shove on the river would have read bluff all day and aces would likely call that a good majority of the time. Your check raise on the turn gave him all he needed to fold the river.
Value bet at the end for 250-500. Let him put you all in if he decides to push. He puts you on a set with the all in. You got lucky to win what you did...
Either raise more on the turn or bet less on the river. Check raise on the turn is very polarizing. Betting $700 to $875 on the river leaves KK and QQ in your range and gives him a better price to call. Like you said, he is disciplined. He's already called a polarizing bet and his alarm bells are going off. Gotta price him in, not run him off. Only other option would be to go for more with the check raise on the turn. He's not willing to drop AA for one raise apparently, so sizing up maximizes value. No matter what the check raise is going to raise alarm bells. Now the shove on the river comes at a much better price as most of the money is already in. I want them making a crying call on the river, not give them a chance to make a fold that gives them a pat on the back.
I definitely would’ve gone for one of those polarizing 1/3 pot bets on the river. Maybe even smaller. Any over pair holdings won’t want to call a big bet with the straight being there + how strong the check raise was on the turn. Nobody with kings jacks or queens should be check raising the turn there, so your range is narrowed to sets. A bet of $500-600 would’ve been a great price to induce a call and might even make him think you have an over-pair like jacks, queens or kings and want to get to showdown for cheap. If that was his read, he’d certainly shove and you’d win the maximum. This hand was really not played well, especially considering your exact read on the opponent was correct.
I’ve been playing Texas holdem consistently for 15 years. I’ve only folded pocket aces ONCE! Out of at least one million hands! It’s a lot harder than you think lol
the best plays in the hand are from the guy with AA, minus his turn bet, he should check back and pot control, rare an opp won't c/r turn if they led flop but chk trn...its possible, but unlikely on this sort of board. Hero line is too strong here, even if the donk bet on flop was a part of that line.
