How to Predict the Spread of Epidemics | Computational Social Networks 

I was self-isolating for decades before it became cool.

And so for this reason Google would like to have access to all your information

Great video, everything is very well explained ! Thank you :)

this is really Beautiful in my country we became aware even before it reach us what about yours Jade?

The next video going to be on Federalism?

Stay safe everyone! ❤

It looks like not even scientists and researchers didn't even know this fact exists..😏

Oh, my, another attempt to use computers to save humanity from itself. We’re getting closer and closer to the point where computers get so smart that they will refuse to do anything we want, and instead do nothing else but mock our futile goals.

viruses in a social network . like Ideas and propaganda.

I like how you did not commence explaining what a graph is.

I'm a research computer scientist studying exactly this, and I just want to say you did a great job covering it!

Fascinating. John Snow would love this video 🙂

My god, Jade, you‘re on an absolute uploading spree! (In all seriousness, I was wondering about what six degrees of separation would be like in this situation. Also stay safe out there, this goes for all of you)

You stay safe, too! This was actually the best video I've seen on how diseases spread. Most other illustrations just use moving dots to show how social distancing flattens the curve, and while I agree that it works, these illustrations always rubbed me the wrong way... Give me some Graph Theory and a Dijkstra algorithm!

I read that in World of Warcraft there was interesting opportunity to observe an epidemic in simulated environment. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupted_Blood_incident

Same thing we use to track the spread of memes as they work almost functionally the same as a virus. Even on the streets when some fool says yeet they might as well have coughed in your face because a week later you started ironically saying yeet.

Moral of the Story: "Stay HOME, Be Safe"

Jade (and her team) deserves 10 times as many subscribers...at least!!

Washing our hands with soap frequently and self isolation are the two important points to be followed Also don't touch your face unnecessarily Stay safe , please don't be under the false impression that nothing will happen to me . Take care of yourself and your family

good one Jade, I passed on this link to show how math works in our daily lives.

Let's make your video viral to prevent the actual virus!

This is so beautiful 😍, the math of course not the virus 🦠 >.>

I trust her over any politically appointed expert. This video is a perfect example of why that is. None of our American politically appointed health experts have ever produced a single PSA that explained the situation this well. No ideology here at all, just very well explained science. I am grateful.

Don't know why, Her way of speaking is like flirting to me.

Thank you. Can you get the Prime Minister to look at it please. Your points sre well explained so I hope he can understand it

2 years later, and it's so sad to see how it all played out. At least in the US, it's so sad to see how much knowledge we had that was just ignored or refuted by people. All this knowledge, and we still failed. :( Thank you for doing what you do and continuing making videos this whole time!

I really love how she explained concepts through visualization. Keep up the good work ^^

Not to mention the maths behind viral load - low load and natural immunity can fight it, high load (such as in hospitals) and it seems to suffocate the immunity response. Sorry, I just complicated your social network maths

Hi Your videos are very helpful and instructive. Just wondering if you could make a video about Tensors.

Thanks Jade! I hope that you and yours are doing well during these times, and I look forward to when you're able to get back to "normal" existential crises again.

We all know we are being tracked by the government and private companies, might as well put it to use and make useful decisions using this data.

Nice video.. Everyone please stay safe and prevent the virus from taking any more lives.😊

Wow, young lady, you did a fantastic job of presenting a simple visual explanation. (as always)

Anndddd... she said coronavirus. Demobilized.

Thank you for the video. The graph visuals explain things clearly.

this is v good for visualizing/conceptualizing! ty

Thanks, Jade! You stay safe, too!

There is no end for the applications of graph theory right?

This is exactly what I wanted to watch. Thank you.

Thank you Jade. I hope as many as possible see this. So grateful to you.

I'm new to your channel and I've only watched a couple of videos so far but omg each one's a master piece! Well done and stay safe

That's an excellent overview. Thank you

Lovely to see your videos Jade. Stay safe!

Does this mean that the grownups know what they are doing?

Khan Academy working off of someone else posted one about deaths and so on predicting present infections that I just saw even though it is five days old - anyway - this is less depressing! Definitely the theories about psychology are strange yeah I just listened to a supposed expert say school closings probably not very to at all helpful that certainly could be true in a given modeling scenario but seems worth a shot yeah I’m a substitute teacher who is glad to be unwanted or something hahaha... anyway talking about metrics for behavioral change could be an interesting and difficult departure from the safety of yeah pure science however defined hahaha if you choose to take it on more in the future... 👩‍⚕️👨‍⚕️🧑‍⚕️🤯🥇☮️💟🌈🌏🌍🌎🎬🎬🎬🚀🚀🚀...

Woah, you've been insanely productive lately!

Fun fact: humidity has an effect on this airborne virus spread. The higher the humidity the slower the spread. So the moral of the story is to stay out of air-conditioned rooms and hope the weather is warm and humid. There is scientific links available, but I cannot find them at this instance because other things to do.

She blinks more than once per second.. Roughly 160 times throughout the video.. My eyes now feel very dry.. 😳😳😳 😵😵😵

My playlist now consists of songs like, _Yesterday_ by The Beatles, _End of the World_ by REM and of course the ever popular _You're Gonna Die in a Coronavirus Pandemic_ by the Black Eyed Peas.

Very brave of you to address this topic, given the attitude many have towards COVID and vaccines. I actually make vaccines (not COVID-related), yet the number of crackpot comments from fellow employees puts me off speaking about it at work.

Minimos Cuadrados Covid-19 México: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-mC5y0ZR6i6A.html

And, what happens when those models fail to take into account other possible modes of distribution? For example (and just humor me here): What if the spread is INTENTIONAL?

"With today's computing power and access to public data we are more equipped than ever before to predict Covid-19's next move." I wholeheartedly disagree. The more eyes you have looking at a problem, the more solutions you generate toward solving it, the more distractions those additional sources create, the more likely that the correct answer is ignored. About the time this video was published, I correctly predicted the local size of the first wave 2.5 months into the future using a method I felt was mathematically sound. I tried sharing it with anyone who would hear me, but was ignored at every turn. My regional health authority's prediction was 100 times greater. This was only the beginning of the pandemic's mismanagement. Sussing out the right approach is never as simple as looking back in time.

Therefore, the only reliable solution is to move ALL your social networks to online only. Firebreaks - quarantines, lockdowns, travel bans - also help considerably if used on sufficient scale and applied without loopholes such as repatriating people from a quarantined country (China) or city (NY).

it doesn' t seem like we have time to "study" anything for covid - but where this can be useful is next fall and winter, since the 1918 pandemic killed the most people during the following cold season. she made some good points, and this stuff should have ALREADY have been charted. . What i wonder about, even fear,, is the use of these charted studies for darker motives and ambitions by those in power who want to stay in power. Every technology has its bright and dark side - global anything (travel, technology, cellular phone use, etc) is as good as the motives of those controlling it - and it comes with costs. Our staying home is helping the environment. That should be a wake-up call for us all and a clear message that we need to change our ways, and question what has "value" if it fouls our own nest and puts our life systems out of balance. I think this pandemic is all about that.

Hello Jade ! That is a really important explanation about how to predict this virus, and I'm very happy to had found your channel. Shout out from Brazil and Keep it up.

Nicely explained!

While this video was an awesome bit of information, I'm so tired of this overblown panic about a particularly aggressive cold virus. You'd think this thing was extinction level or something.

This makes a lot of sense intuitively. However, relying on these models should only be for predicting the spread of viral epidemics, and _NOT_ the *effect* of what that spread will have. To do so is an oversimplification not based on concrete science. There’s *far* more to controlling the negative effects of viral outbreaks than mere prevention via isolation. Prophylactic measures derived from nutrition, supplementation, exercise, or other similar factors are never taken into consideration; which would have an immensely positive effect if implemented. But hey, gotta make that vaccine money! It’s obviously the *only* viable method of disease prevention amiright? All hail and bow down to the vaccine gods.

You can all support research like this by downloading World Community Grid on your computer or smartphone. It uses your unused processing power to perform calculations and computations for various projects. (www.worldcommunitygrid.org/research/viewAllProjects.do)

I see potential for a new concept of power over others: position yourself to be a central node and demand ransom...or else! :)

Nice explanation, next challenge, explain why the government doesn't follow the experts in this, but rather follow the money ...

I had a career as an engineer working in water resources, hydraulic modelling, water and waste water treatment and so on. During this career I developed an interest in turbulence, chaos, mixing and the like. I did look around fairly diligently for work in this area and found little. Like say you have two fluids, pure water and salty. You pour them into a container and stir it. What is the minimum amount of stirring needed to end up with a uniform solution? Or you have a cake batter that you throw a handful of raisins into. What is the minimum amount of stirring needed to distribute the raisins evenly in the batter? What is the minimum paths of the raisins through the batter to achieve even distribution? How does that compare to actual paths when your stir with a spoon? And why given widely different initial conditions, raisins in a clump or thin layer at the top or bottom or off to one side, if we stir enough we eventually end up with the same uniform distribution? I know the math of entropy in thermodynamics and it has some application here but there's much more to it than that. I'm still very curious about all the mysteries in this area. I've asked this of other RU-vid math channels before with little comment so far. Could you maybe do a vid on what you know or can find out in this area? I have interesting tidbits for you from all the years in hydrology that hint at some strong ordering principals to be found in turbulent flow of liquids. - Rivers meander like a snake across the landscape. Surprisingly the average size of the meanders is independent of the material the river flows through and correlates to the size of the average flood. - River meanders have this pattern of deep slow flowing sections and shallow faster sections everywhere we find them on the planet. The straight sections are the shallow faster flow and the curves are the deeper slower flow. - You can raise the bottom of the river in the faster flowing sections by putting in small barriers, rocks, sticks, spoilers that ruin hydraulic efficiency and cause the water to drop it's suspended sediments. Curiously the river responds to this by deepening the deep pool on either the downstream or upstream end of the shallow section. - Rivers that are actively cutting into the landscape always have only a single channel while rivers that are actively depositing sediments on the landscape have multiple so called braided channels. - The total length of a river's curving meandering centerline is Pi (3.14159...) times the straight line distance the river covers across the landscape. These are just observations we've made in the field with no real good explanations of why rivers are so. I have some idea why such morphologies arise from a turbulent liquid flow but it's all a little fuzzy and mostly hand waving arguments.

Becoming my favorite speaker and I only really watched one video but was fully engaged and actually took away something. Not just nodding my head along for the ride to be amazed at the presenters own smarts. A wonderful curious mind at work dethroning some of my former favorites.

Very Informative. 🙃 Stay safe .and Thanks

do the math on the catastrophic potentials of pandemic panic breeding because the problem with energy investments in renewable energy right now, is that natural gas is our lowest energy route to petrochemical fertilizers, and we are starting to need to exert more energy for the same amount of fertilizer; and that climate change has more to do with agricultural destruction of the planet's ability to absorb CO^2, than our CO^2 release.. though that has to be tackled from both ends, we are fighting a loss of absorption that we can not keep up with.. it's is time to re-engineer the human species, if you mix the paleo-anthropological, with the genetic, science; you can see where the problem is, and it's just a matter of narrowing it down... so the real trick is re-engineering the human species without the population going up..

Do you think that modelling a social network could change the network? As soon as you have information about the network, you might change people's behavior in a way that modifies the network.

Ok I have a question which is not related to this topic. Why is magnesium not regarded as inert metal, but neon is? Magnesium also has fully filled 3s orbital? Pls answer this

Nice theoretical construct. However, reality is much more complex. As you mentioned, the number of nodes and connections is extremely high in reality (just think that there are billions of people on earth and each has many networks and connections that are constantly changing). As well, the type of connections has an impact on the spread of a virus. A social network composed of friends meeting for many hours, sharing drinks and meals is a very different connection than people minimally interacting in a library, or people interacting through a Facebook page. for example. This complexity is why decision makers do not use social network computations to make decisions. They simply limit (or should limit) all physical connections and nodes as much as possible to limit the spread of the virus. So, no, social networks computation is not a useful tool in practice, at least not as of today.

Are we gonna die?

Math is super, while I'm hunkered down. Thnx God bless. Take care.

What about microwave spectral analysis of the distinctive chemical chemical constitution of the chemical components characteristic of the corona virus? Technology most likely exists now which could be used to detect corona virus concentrations on surfaces in high-traffic human usage areas to not only detect virus levels there, but also to do time monitoring studies providing information on how the viruses are proliferating or dwindling, and relate that information to measures for containment of viral populations. It might even be possible to make such studies of viral populations in air where humans MUST be present, such as medical personnel in hospitals and clinics.

What about microwave spectral analysis of the distinctive chemical chemical constitution of the chemical components characteristic of the corona virus? Technology most likely exists now which could be used to detect corona virus concentrations on surfaces in high-traffic human usage areas to not only detect virus levels there, but also to do time monitoring studies providing information on how the viruses are proliferating or dwindling, and relate that information to measures for containment of viral populations. It might even be possible to make such studies of viral populations in air where humans MUST be present, such as medical personnel in hospitals and clinics.

hello Ma'am I am from India and here the effect of the cause(corona virus) is more observable than the actual spread, in the form of precautions that are being taken by the people because of various forms of awareness program that are being conducted as a result the spread of the virus is very gradual and the spread is mainly due to the tourists or even some NRIs who travel frequently either because of their business or some other reason, people who have just returned from abroad and somehow have managed to surpass the airport screening either because of their influential personality or by some other means and thats how india has managed to control the outspread despite the fact that India is the closest densly populated country even northan borders of the country touch Chinese borders the outspread thankfully is not even 0.000000001% as of now which is very less as compared to the number of people that are affected the virus in italy or some other country considering the fact that total population of italy is just 6.05 cr whereas indias population is 133 crores

Do you actually believe, that the social network doesn't connect every person (or almost every person) in the world actually, but there are just nodes like stars, rulers, presidents, etc. who make more connections to other countries? I suppose there are hardly any isolated communities (like on some Indonesian island where they kill every1 who steps in)

For those that want to know a bit more about the spread modeling used when network information is not available, this video offers a good overview: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-gSqIwXl6IjQ.html He's not an amazing lecturer, but he knows the maths well and explain it in an easily accessible manner.

Very informative video. Thank you for sharing. 🤔🤨😲😃👍

Very informative video. Thank you for sharing. 🤔🤨😲😃👍

Introvert: I was cool that most everyone is out while I'm at home... now that everyone is at home, I feel the ever increasing urge to go out the empty streets.

One "node" drives to a store and new nodes are "born". Let try to figure out how to instruct the ribosome not to replicate this or any harmful virus during rNA transcription.

I just loved the way that you are creating awareness among people in a scientific way,great keep it up And I one thing I wanted to know how you make such great animations ,l am sure you will answer my question ,dear sis

This is really good Jade. You're really cool. And sorry for the roast. I obviously didn't mean it seriously :)

one small issue with this virus says you have a social network. of 4 friends. but the issue arises if say the virus only infects say 3 of the 4 friends, so within the network the virus plays a probability game that also changes over time

I think we should keep checking peoples temperature at airports which would stop this from happening again. It would also stop or slow down the spread of colds and flu.

Human build system come under strains very easily because we wait for something to wake us up from sleep . Stay inside stay safe .

The best way is to watch the financial actions of your politicians. This stuff doesn't get released by accident.

you look like mark from Peepshow might be your slightly less annoying brother.

Cool now make a graph of 30000000 nodes to represent the infection of a population of United States.

Did I just see ads on a virus video?!!

Very informative...Pls make some videos on graph theory...

Excellent video, thank you!

It seem to me you could take this computational tool and combine it history of other virus pandemics as a hysteric to better deal with the next pandemic because there will be another.

What about weather factors such as wind & rainfall transporting the virus?

I believe it was a good idea to cover this topic in an easy-to-understand way. Your presentation is great. ...and your eyes and smile are still unforgetable

That was extremely interesting and made lovelier by your accent.

Suggestion: can you cover quantum dot displays?

Hi!! can I ask you what app do you use for making your videos??

is this how the R0 is calculated? and if not could you upload a video about the models behind the calculations?

This video is great assuming one will only get infected from someone within his own network.

Dude, I^m really loving your vids. Keep the good work!