I believe I recall you stating in a crush live vid that you reviewed this hand on, that you were planning on bet - 3betting him off 4x on river… not AA or KK
yeah, i was planning on bet 3b him off any value hand he had on the river, that was my thought process in game. the problem is - i just dont think he checks back turn with 4x, and i dont think he 3b flop with overpairs. sure, theres trace amounts... BUTTTTT, i think its infinitely more likely he has air than value, and if he has air, the best and only way to get him to put more money in is to x river and give him a bit more rope. i admit i blundered this river pretty bad.
LOL. Monday morning quarter back analysis sounds so intelligent. In 2023 Masato Yokosawa made $284968 by playing poker, which excludes his business and RU-vid income. Did you make more than $284968 by playing poker ?
Is Masato really a studied player? I’m leaning toward no because of the lazy/bad cbet sizing. He should have QQ KK AA at a decent frequency for the flop 3! given this line, but based on the cbet size I agree with you and doubt he finds it. River is tough between block and x. I think there’s a higher probability of him spazzing out against a block. May not happen often but like you said the overpairs will fold to the b/3! . He won’t have them as much as gto but can’t completely discount. Also BS air more likely to raise the block than just bluff IMO. I personally think it looks weaker to block than x because a lot of fish do it to set a price when they’re uncomfortable. I like your in game line
ive played with masato a few times and while i think he spends more of his time playing tournaments than cash, he's def a very competent player. i think almost ALL regs (myself included) sometimes use lazy/bad cbet sizing. interesting point on river, i don't disagree. even though i think you could be right, i don't like my decision because i made it for the wrong reason. if i had this reason in mind, it seems ok!
@wil1451 In the video, hero said Masato makes a STANDARD 1/3 pot cbet. Downbetting flops with high overpairs to keep worse hands in is pretty standard. So why would it be bad or lazy cbetting?
@@theejayzeeableIt’s not standard. The SPR is 25 and we have a brick board where IP overpairs are essentially the nuts and want to pile money in. I think you could even play overbet or x in this spot. In a standard online 100bb 3! pot I believe this board is half pot or x but I could be wrong. This deep though, not having a size that is at least pot seems pretty bad Now, there are exploitative arguments for using a 1/3 size here. Since it’s a stream game, Marc is going to be defending wider than optimal so he doesn’t look like a nit and Masato can get the trash in Marc’s range to fold. Another exploitative argument is that most are not going to find the proper xr frequency against a small size here, but I would imagine Marc does. A non exploitative argument for 1/3 is that you can construct a strategy where you go 1/3 on flop and put in massive (>2x pot) overbets on turn and river. Doubt that was Masato’s plan though.
Completely agree with you. I like the block way better than checking. Even with the reasoning they were giving and saying “oh we don’t x/r here and then call with air” meaning a competent player is just going to be shutting down super often, which means checking again isn’t very good, and they still came up with the weird bs excuse of giving rope where none exists lol. U can see that even J7hh wasn’t bluffing lol even when picks up that much equity. Like AKhh for example is a better check back to realize so J7 is definitely a must bluff if u want to be balanced. So, Block bet definitely induces way more here and makes the most sense vs a competent player that isn’t too good/balanced. Vs a fish checking is definitely best bc they just interpret it as weakness without thinking at all about any of this stuff. Also, GTO sizing for this board 100 deep is b66-b75. No idea what it is when 300bb deep, but I assume pot or overbet gets used for sure. This small sizing could be one of those exploitative adjustments of playing in stream tho, but unlikely that was the case. Seems like it’s just likely a bad, lazy or unbalanced sizing.
