Absolute thing not mentioned here is what is Tom thinking when Doug folds and Wesley slides his hand over for Doug to look. To me he is trying to show strength, and I don't believe for one second he would slide two Kings or two Aces over. I may be wrong, but I think Tom seen that, and then discounts Wesley having the KK or AA .
The only thing he broke down is exposing Tom Dwans angle shooting in live games. I wasn't going to say anything but he obviously trying to make Doug look like an inferior player to Tom Dwan. We both know Doug would smoke Dwan like a joint heads up in a 50k hand match online at holdem. He would get completely obliterated.
This style of discussing the hands with the person who's in them, or getting commentary from them, is amazing. The text from Tom took this video to a whole new level, which is certainly something I've come to expect from your content. Thank you!
New Tom is calling there every time. Over the years Tom has become so reckless it seems. But not as much the incredible bluffs we knew him for but now its reckless calls. Very much like DNegs, it's next level poker thinking that's amazing. They can damn near figure out exactly what their opponent has....and then still calling anyway. 💸😂
I didn't know they were good friends! That's pretty cool actually. I would have thought Dwan would think Galfond was too nice and Galfond would think Dwan is a little too harsh.
Gem breakdown, Phil. Thanks! Uniquely insightful due to your well-known deep poker knowledge, and your long-standing friendship with Tom. e.g. "Of all the poker players who I've talked strategy with...Tom has the most thoughts per minute of everybody." Lol, what a great nugget that explains part of modern poker history. Aside: Always happy to see Tom win big, reminds me of his super-entertaining High Stakes Poker days.
Thanks so much for the well-thought out feedback! I doubt I’ll have this level of personal insight into most hands that are played, but I’ll look for more opportunities in the future!
Phil, this was a joy on all fronts. You're taking us into such depth with the thought process of a poker prodigy and providing all of us with a clinic on poker psychology. Outstanding job.
Possibly one of the best hand breakdown videos ever. The level of access is what sets you apart on your content Phil, and as much as it may feel overbearing in your relationships with your friends/colleagues, it sets your content apart. Bravo.
Tom is always so calm, it's interesting to see him get genuinely pissed off at the table for behaving out of line. He's 100% justified, it's just a rare sight to see.
Thanks Phil. Great to hear your thoughts/analysis. The table talk after these hands were some of the best parts of the stream. Would appreciate more of these.
Great analysis Phil. I’ve watched a couple breakdowns of this hand from different pros like Doug and other RU-vidrs but this video gave extra insight that I didn’t have before!
Watching Tom play live is a treat. Whether he is bluffing or has the nuts his demeanor and expression does not change, and never has. Just my opinion of course.
@@Mark-rw3kw I bet you’d fold here. The stakes can’t be overlooked either. Wesley 5 bet pre and triple barreled. He’s credibly repping aces. I think most fold here
This level of hand reading and the thought process of some of the worlds best poker players will always be interesting. Thank you for the amazing content, don't stop.
Regular watcher here.... I enjoyed the hand breakdown - particularly that you were outside of hand charts (as you usually are) and more into the psychological choices, reads and re-reads (as the hand progresses). Nicely done. What might add value is analysis as to how these mistakes might play at lower levels. Obviously the reads and counters playing at these levels are unique, stratospheric and particular to the pro game under extremely deep circumstances. Most of us are not playing at those levels. Most of us are not even playing with people who know about two or three level deep thinking. Getting your take on these plays at lower levels would give us even more to take to the tables. However, this was EXTREMELY well done. Thank You!
@@PhilGalfond U really should ... although personally I'm not a big Doug Polk fan when it comes to his poker play. A long time ago I thought he was the best cash game player in the world, a long, long time ago. But now? I'd take action against him.
This is an excellent breakdown in how to play "exploit" poker. It shows how to think like a Bayesian. You do an excellent job of explaining the skill of identifying the important information and how to incorporate it into your mental model. You also do a great job of plainly describing how to update your belief throughout the hand and how this translates to decision making. Just top notch content.
For those who are new to poker Dwan made Galfond worldwide famous when he announced his hu challenge (before he played jungleman) that he will play anyone in the world hu except Phil Galfond…
This is my favourite video that you've ever made. I got a lot of value out of this, thank you very much! Breaking down how you and Tom use reads to influence your decisions was what I liked the most about the video.
Wesley’s spaz comment made it painfully obvious that Doug was very capped. Doug should have just taken the L early and ended the charade. This hand was like shooting fish in a barrel for Tom.
i remember commenting on your video when you had about 5k subs and telling you to keep it up and that it starts slow but you will certainly build a following. I haven't stopped watching your videos since and you are by far my favorite poker commentator. It's nice to have someone who has been so successful in poker share their wisdom. In a subtle way you are my pseudo coach and I very much appreciate that you are so willing to share your thoughts and wisdom regarding the complexities of poker. I absolutely loved this type of video. I think there aren't many other poker commentators doing videos like this and the fact that you are able to reach out and get some real, after the fact, discussion from the player made this even more relavent. It would be different if we were entirely speculating on what Durr is thinking and having those little bits of convo really does add something. I also appreciated that you stated your personal opinion of the situation before sharing what Durr thought. I know I said it before but I'll say it again. Thank you so much for the videos. I know they take a lot of time and energy to make. I sincerely appreciate the fact that you take time away from your family to share this with me and I wish you and your family the best!
@@Mark-rw3kwHow do you know Wesley had 100% of himself? Just curious. I don’t rly know his background. I believe Doug had 25%, I forget how much he lost overall in the game. You’ll find that many ppl don’t have 100% in games of this magnitude. I’d be surprised if Tom did, you just never know. It’s mostly the wealthy businessmen who are gonna have 100. Really hard to be rolled for a game like this as a poker player. Like if Galfond played this game I believe he’d sell some piece. Idk what % he’d sell but it’d be some I would think. If Phil sees this I’m sure he’d confirm he’s not gonna bring three $1M bullets and not sell x%. Again maybe I’m wrong but ya. This comment isn’t to defend anyone or anything, it’s just to shed a bit of reality on the situation on how common it is. Doug just has a popular platform so he shared the fact. He could’ve surely sold the pieces privately to friends. I don’t think it’s necessary to tell ppl what % you have of yourself unless someone in the game has a piece…which I believe is not great in the first place unless EVERYONE knows and is fully okay with it. It’s extremely common in live MTTs to swap %s w friends, I’m sure Phil has done that. In like the WSOPME maybe you swap x% with a few friends for a sweat. A lot of live MTT players also sell big packages where they’ll sell 50% or w/e to a bunch of ppl, or they’ll have a staking arrangement etc. It’s unlikely to end up at the same table as your backer in these massive fields, but if that did happen, I would tell the table if someone who had a very large piece of me was at the table. If it’s someone I swapped like 3-5% with I wouldn’t feel the need to. Just my thoughts on this stuff. I’ve sold pieces of myself in large cash games before (obv nowhere near this lol, large for me, 10/25/50 euros game when I was at an EPT.) I sold like 35% to a buddy, he didn’t play in the game I wouldn’t feel comfortable w that at all. I’ve also swapped in a cpl large live MTTs, I’m not an MTT player it’s an occasional thing for me but I have friends that are and know how common it is. I haven’t played live in like 5 years beside a handful of times locally.
@@BOnYTB Wesley Fei made millions in crypto, although his exact net worth right now is not public info (especially since Bitcoin and other cryptos have decreased in value since their highs). So he didn't need any staking, and he bought in for about $3 million, when most everyone else bought in for about $1 million. Also, I don't think he has any kind of poker following that would allow him to raise that much money. I watched those hands live on RU-vid (with delay for security reasons) and I don't think he is a good enough poker player to get people to stake him. Doug Polk's financial situation is much different, and he has actually quit playing poker, because he has a family now (his wife had their first child earlier this year) and playing poker was not really profitable for him (although he is involved in making money via his RU-vid channel and connection with an Austin poker room). I think he bought in for over $1.5 million, and I am pretty sure was mostly staked. Given the amount of money he lost, if that was all his (or even 33% his) I think his wife would have killed him (literally). I don't think anyone, even a multi-millionaire, would have been that carefree as Doug seemed to be after losing so much in that session. Even Wesley was shaken when he lost most of his stack and he can actually afford to lose it (and I think he is single). Since Doug Polk is a respected poker player, he could get staked by a lot of people, not just friends of his. There are a lot of "poker staking" websites where anyone can stake big name stars, but I don't know for a fact if Polk used those for this game.
@Mark-rw3kw Doug has plenty of money to cover himself. He also has been playing again since he opened his room in Austin. Also, a other revenue stream.
@@kevinstucki8644 Doug doesn't have 100% of himself in this game. He said so himself, the game is too big for him at this point in his life (with a baby and all). He had 3 bullets (3M) ready to fire, of which, 25% was his own.
What about the fact that Wesley is laying with his face down on the table? I felt like that weights him more towards bluffs. I remember hearing Fedor Holtz explain that players will be nervous with both bluffs and value but as the tank drags on they become slightly more comfortable with value and still nervous with bluffs. So he says he can look at a player, measure his heart rate, wait and measure it again and if it hasn't gone down it weights it more to a bluff. I can't tell a player's heart rate by looking at them but I can tell when they're laying face down on the table!
Great analysis, you may not be an NL expert but you’re the exploit king! Pretty cool you’re still pals with Tom, nice to get the additional insight there. Off topic but I especially appreciate your background knowledge on the pro scene and what you know about individual players. Thanks!
I'm really glad you put some subtitles in some of their table talks. I'm not a native speaker and sometimes it's tough to understand when they don't speak clearly.
Tom’s reverse live tells were insane.. he’s basically turning his hand face up as uncomfortable 10s-qs, and he is uncomfortable, but is also goading wes into continuing to fire based on his pre flop read
Phil - don’t you think the right thing to do from Doug’s perspective is say nothing, and then if he has a foldable hand just fold? Remove yourself from the awkwardness, just fold, and tell Wesley next hand to cover his cards better
I’ve been playing since ‘03. I’ve come back to this video 3-4 times over a month period. I think that is an indicator of really good content. I really like the explanation of what you guys think about during hands. Thanks Phil.
I make a living reading people in sales situations every day. I've been doing it for 20 years and while I am not an "educated body language expert" I do have the real-world experience of tens of thousands of interactions. This goes beyond physical tells to include the spoken word, what words are said, Tone, Inflection and volume of someone's voice matters. I work in situations less actively hostile than a poker table though, but I find the dynamics at play between high level players fascinating.
I think there's one more element. When a player knows another player knows your hand there's a little extra bravado at play and maybe that factored into the triple barrel. It worked both ways when Wesley saw Doug's hand and Doug went for the big bluff as well - although Doug is SOOOOO measured I don't know how much that really factored.
Interesting!! I agree there’s some element of “let’s beat him” when someone else is kind of in it with you. Hard to know if it played a role, but it could’ve.
Thanks for the great analysis, and also for including Tom's thought process as a bonus, I really liked Tom's table presence and confidence in this one, And Daniel was completely right: everything you do at a poker table conveys information 😅
to the last part of wat you said with regards to everything you do at a poker table conveys information, thats why phil ivey is so much better playing live poker than he is playing online. yes he crushed it during the 00s and before black fridays, but he started losing out in the end more recently. why is this the case, because phil iveys greatest strength, in my eyes, is his ability to read the room, read the air and the vibe of the person that hes up against. basically the person in the hand conveys information with every little tick that he has, and phil ivey is not able to utilize this at all playing online poker, thus robbing phil ivey of his greatest advantage. and then of course when phil plays live he always seemingly makes the correct decisions, folding top pairs on the turn to a made flush, making the right jam the pot bluffs in a bluff on bluff hand. there hes able to read everything someone is doing at a poker table, and assess the information that he processed there.
I thought the first hand was a bit of a nit roll on the end and agree that Tom should have raised. I thought the slow roll was maybe punishment for the clock call, and the flat call forces Doug to show his bluffs. I am not as good as TD at live reads so my raise recommendation is based mainly on counting combos that can call. Very interesting to have insider info on Dwan’s live reads. Great video!
Hi Phil, just wanted to echo the thoughts here - outstanding presentation, technical analysis, rare access (yourself and Tom are obviously poker legends in your own rights, but casually sharing messages of chats with him / his thought process is next level stuff😆)
Love how dwan was careful enough to keeps his cards off the reader and make sure he said all in at the end of the hand before moving them to the reader
Best hand reviews of all time. Great insight (of course) and the video pacing is perfect and voiceover volume and tone are impeccable. More of this please 🏆
First video I’ve seen of yours. Love it. Calm, clear analysis. No drama. Insightful text message screenshots from Dawn showing us his thinking was an outstanding bonus. Love how both of you came to the same conclusion but by following two different lines of thought regarding the pre-flop behavior of Doug and Wesley. Can anyone suggest some similar videos from Phil?
Your explanation are very clear. My English is not so good, but I understand so much with your breakdown hand. Thank you so much Phil. More video like this
First time you’ve talking about your old friend Tom in a positive way in a while! Glad you’re still talking - and glad that you’re putting out these hand reviews that focus on the live elements of poker rather than the ‘correct’ play.
Just joined, Phil: I really like your videos on both style and substance. On the downside, at 66, I'm way outside of your target audience. But analytically speaking, so much poker content has become grounded in effects, noise and politics, or personal narratives...such that the narrative discussion of the game itself is being drowned out by so much pink noise; in that context, your mellifluous voice has a calming value that is unique to you. I am very happy to support your channel and I derive a variety of value from it. Good health and great hunting in everything you do. Re: Talking Reason
This may be the best video I've ever seen analyzing poker hands, especially with this kind of money at stake. So thank you Phil for that! As a poker lifer I can fully appreciate what Phil has to say about how the hands played out and what his conversations with Tom revealed. I just gained a helluva lot more appreciation for both these men. I've had the dubious honor to be beaten in two key hands at the WSOP by Tom many years ago. He called me down in a Stud hand when I had big cards showing (with 6,6 in the hole) and all he had was a pair of nines. He put a 'soul' read on me is the only way I can explain it. Now I have a better idea on what type of thinking process allows him to make calls like that. I won't bother to share our next hand but suffice to say he read me perfectly, and I've always taken pride in the fact that I'm hard to read. Players like Tom and Phil simply play at a different level than most of us!
9:49 Wesley said: “it’s fine you are going to just fold, right?” So he did hear and more importantly did acknowledge him, but Doug missed it,so did everyone else I love this content Thank you
Doug Polk called the clock cause Dwan was taking to long. Dwan also said he would stop taking so long playing holdem in the past which was a lie. He angle shoots at the table trying to figure out peoples hands in a unethical way. That is why he takes so long and players don't like it. Even checking he would try to do it in a way the players could not tell until they complained to much about it checking by moving 1 finger. its why he crushed high stakes poker. I could cheat too to max my ev but I would feel like a douche bag cheating. Doug is behing honest saying he saw Wesleys hand and I know you would too, but not Tom he would play his hand and not say anything. I seen him see other players hands during live poker shows and he plays his hands and beat them out of their money. He also hasn't paid Jungleman back yet from a decade ago getting crushed by Jungleman. But hes part of your inner circle and Doug is not for what reason? Cause he likes Jordan Peterson? 😏
I hate when the table acts like I'm an idiot when I contemplate either calling or pushing after the river. I've felt exactly how Tom has felt multiple times and it's super annoying.
This is why you NEVER show. It only leads to weird reads, or more importantly, and not mentioned: You are WAY more likely to bluff, be stubborn, or show off (get in a spot they normally might not) when someone else knows what you have. Human psycho 101 --> we are performative, cocky beings! The cameras watching is enough pressure, but its a bit removed at least cuz you can still hide/lie to the table.
With Doug seeing Wesley's cards, you responded that it would be + EV to flat and play the pot. At what point does integrity takeover + EV? I will start, I saw some guy's hand at a table one time, he was next to act, i had bad cards, got up went to the bathroom and putzed about for a little bit till the hand was over and told the guy to cover his cards when he looks at them. I think even if i had good cards, i personally would not be able to play a hand knowing someone's cards and win his money like that. I think game integrity is one of the most important aspects of a game like poker and if players don't have the integrity to win " the right way ", as in no angle shooting or other nonsense, then those players actually make a very - EV decision in that moment. Just some of my thoughts from an average reg at a muddle of nowhere 1/2 table.
People put WAY too much thought into "timing tells." I flopped top 2. Turn brought in only 1 awkward straight draw, on the low end. 2 other people used their time to think and decide. 1 called, 1 folded. (5 ways to a flop, 3 ended up all in on turn, including me). One guy was like, "You snap called." I said, "No I didn't. I had plenty of time to go through my own thoughts, and decided that I was gonna call before it was even my turn. There's no point in wasting any more time." Turns out the hand was even more awkward than I even imagined! I had top 2, one guy had top and bottom, and the third guy had second and third pairs, and I held on the river, for all their chips. If that guy had a hand worth calling with, he would have discounted my hand as being garbage because of what he interpreted as a snap off.
In all honesty, Wesley seems to be an ok player against the usual suspects on stream, but clearly he got in over his head here against a poker genius. When all you're thinking about is the fame that comes from bluffing Dwan and yelling "artist" once he sees your cards, well, obviously it doesn't end well.
Where Tom had QQ, do you think Tom consciously put his cards away from the card reader, to make it potentially less obvious were he to make a move with an unconventional hand, given what is unfolding on the table?
Of course u go all in there , if u got a cooler u live with it, the right plays shouldnt be decided by the thought of cooler. You literally have to put him on king king to NOT go all in that's wild
what doug did was not great. he should look at his hand first. if its a fold he should just fold and say nothing. If he plays, then he should say he saw the hand. he didnt need to be part of this at all.
Once you see your opponent's hand pre and tell them you've seen it, and it's a multiway or potential multiway pot, you should just fold without looking. If it's HU or you're closing the action making it HU then you can mutually agree with your opponent how to move forwards. Saying that if Doug had T8s or another playable hand that it would be okay for him to continue, when it's potentially a multiway pot is an understanding blind spot on your part, and a blind spot by Doug, if he was considering calling or 4 betting with a playable hand. Knowing an opponents' hand in a multiway pot, not only allows you to obviously play perfectly against them but also gives you card removal info against other players in the pot as well as allows you in some instances to manipulate the action because you can near predict what the player whose cards you know is going to do post flop.
It doesn't even matter what video you make. Your voice and the fact that I feel like I'm getting smarter every time I listen to you, is a good enough reason to watch it. Thanks again Phil. Big fan since 2014. RIO made me a lot of money :D.
Dwan should have CLEARLY reraised on the river. He knew he didn't have KK cuz how he played the opening, so the ONLY thing to be afrain of here was 66. Tell me how i'm wrong.
Years ago Doug tom and a few others used to play online together and share an apartment together I bet they miss them years anyways friends for life but what's happening on this hand
Really interesting analysis. Easy hand to play for a few hundred bucks in the 1-3 game, terrifying and extremely difficult hand to play at these stakes.
That was great. So fascinating to get an insight into the mental processes at this level of poker. Love the presentation style and quality of content Phil Galfond. Thanks very much.
