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Bingeable as always! I wish you had included the bit in the post-mortem analysis you did in the stream showing that you red *actually* did get 2 VPs from the deck that you helped them buy, which prevented black from winning!
the colonist ranking system is totally jacked up. It puts way too much weight on the first 10 placement games and gives you a very distorted ranking based on how you do in those games. on the 1 vs 1 game you can find people in the top 30 to 50 with the same win percentage and the same number of games as people clear down with a 1,000 ranking. I mean there could be a slight difference based on the quality of player you are up against, but not like 200 elo difference.
Hey, I know you are a very intuitive and social player, but just thought I'd let you know that from a game theory perspective, doing a 4:1 just to avoid 7-ing out is pretty suspect. Even if you pass with 8 cards, there's a 52% chance of 7-ing out, and you lose 4 cards. But if you 4:1 you essentially have a 100% chance of losing 3 cards. Now here it's fine I guess because the sheep is just dead in your hand otherwise anyway, but this is just something people tend to forget, because the intuitive kind of automatic thinking is "7-ing out = bad".
i wonder how this changes in the colonist 1v1 mode since a 7-out there is at 10 cards. So you lose more from it but there are also a lot fewer rolls until your next turn - i find myself holding quite a bit and not regretting it in that format.
@@joshthefunkdoc I never played that mode, but it's not hard to calculate the odds of rolling a 7. It is always P=1-(5/6)^x where x is the number of rolls. Out of 1 roll: 16.7% Out of 2 rolls: 30.6% Out of 3 rolls: 42.1% Out of 4 rolls: 51.8% So I am guessing since it's 1v1 if you pass with over 9 cards you have to survive 2 rolls? In that case at 10 cards you would on average lose 5*0.306, so about 1.5 cards. While 4:1 still loses you 3, so it's definitely worth staying unless for some very specific reason. These are just average numbers, not the end all be all solutions. 4:1 for a rare resource you need and don't expect to get through trades might be a better play than risking the 7. Each instance should be looked at independently.
@@fisher00769 Somewhat true, But If you hold, and would otherwise 4:1 the resource on your next Orbit, doing it before you have a 50/50 of 7ing Out is better.
I think the idea is that not all resources are valued equally. In the 4:1 sheep to ore instance, it made sense since he has no way to get ore besides trading. The only resources he has available to trade are sheep so if he 4:1s now, he can trade sheep for ore later. If he trades it early or holds, hes just going to have to 4:1 sheep for ore on the next turn anyways cuz no one is going to trade him 2 ore.
@@darthskixx2263 And the other part to consider with this is that Colonist 1v1 uses friendly robber rules, so the opponent can't block you or steal your resources until you build a settlement/city or you obtain Longest Road/Largest Army. A fairly common scenario in that mode is to use an opening setup that leaves you without sheep, with your first expansion spot giving you good sheep. Since you only need 1 sheep to get things going and you know you're guaranteed to keep that sheep until you settle, a 4:1 makes a lot more sense once you get close to 10 cards. Once you've ditched the Friendly Robber shield, though, it becomes much more like what InStinct described.
I dont like the idea of smurfing. You literaly take away the chance for 3 other players for a fair and fun game. Basicly they play for 2nd Place. If you play for fun and do some funny stuff its another story, but if you tryhard like shit its just rude imo. And this looks tryhard to me.
Your opponents were brain dead in this game hahah Also, you should have just focused on road instead of devs since you were sitting on a lot of wood and brick. Woulda been a quicker dub
