Iceland Eruption Continues to Thicken Lava Field: Geologist Analysis 

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About the risk: It's one thing to put themselves at risk. But what if they have to be saved / rescued? What about all these first responders being put into danger? What if they would be needed somewhere else? That's where the freedom of the individual ends for me. Thx for another great video!

Possible educational tool, Shawn... The crust on top of lava is like the ice on a pond. You don't know how thick it is as a result of the air above it cooling (heating) it. Easy to go through thin ice! You might survive swimming in a pond. You won't survive swimming in molten lava if you fall through into the lava river! (Retired Geography teacher - how can you tell?)

Those berms have held better than I expected. Side benefits of your videos are better pronunciation, understanding maps and graphs, and a lot more! Thank you, Shawn! 👏🏻

A dear friend of mine died on a guided whitewater rafting afternoon in Maine. Just a fun sunny afternoon experience with a friend and her now heartbroken Dad. A good swimmer and she still didn't make it when tossed into the water. Tragic. Danger is present in many ways we do not perceive. Listening to experts will help keep people safe most of the time.

95% of me is appalled by the actions of these tourists, but 5% of me wishes I could see the volcano and lava pool up close and personal.

At the risk of making a lot of people angry, the whole area around the cone/vent is unstable. The ground is unstable, especially if lava tubes have formed. Sadly, the people who feel their rights are being infringed upon, would be the first ones to complain loudly if they were somehow injured. It wouldn’t be their fault, even though they’ve been warned to stay away. This doesn’t even take into consideration the toxic gases being put out into the air. Wish we could all just enjoy the volcano from a safe distance, and use good sense.

My wife and I visited Hawaii a couple of decades age, and toured the Kilauea East Zone/Chain of Craters Road on the west side of the Mauna Ulu eruption vent. We ventured onto the very old and cold flows of a’a lava a very short distance until we decided the rough terrain and instability of the surface was too great of a hazard and returned to flat ground rather than risk potentially serious leg injuries including sprains, lacerations or even fractures if the crust broke under our weight. This does not even include the current Icelandic hazards of unpredictable flow outbreaks from perched ponds, or shifting winds bringing suffocating gases. There is a tension between exploring natural caves and abandoned hard rock mines, with mines having MANY more hazards than caves. The conventional wisdom on mines is to ”Stay alive, stay out.” As a visitor to a country one has an obligation to be courteous and observant of local conventions of behavior, and not be a burden to local emergency services. The residents on the Rekyanes Peninsula are having enough trauma with this slow-moving disaster without being further burdened by bad behavior on the part of entitled tourists.

Thanks for another interesting update Shawn: also thanks to Amanda-Jo for her input👍😀

A huge thank you to Manda Jo for keeping us (you) informed about the current situations. Hope she has been able to settle in with her family of fur babies. Moving is hard, especially during this dangerous time.

Thank you Amanda Jo for your help.

Good words on the dangers Shawn. Nature is unforgiving of stupidity or ignorance, there's no discrimination between the two.

I find it fascinating that Svartsengi has literally moved 2m to the Northwest since the Fall

I am humbled by the number of really brilliant people that are out there. You included. Those graphs make things so clear.

Thanks Shawn for regular updates.

Could you let Amanda Jo know of our appreciation for her hard work? This is almost more interesting than when the community was naming the vents a few years back. Bob and family, lol.

Always the best Updates. Thanks to Shawn, Amanda Jo and all the contributors to making these updates so interesting!!

Excellent Shawn! The most reliable source of information.

Excellent commentary on the perception of risk and a very realistic and understandable explanation of the dangers of visiting the volcano. This part should be made into a separate video and posted to the FB group every time someone asks about hiking there.

Great update Shawn! You explain things so well. Loved the graph from Bruce Garner showing the GPS uplift rates across the peninsula. Thanks Bruce! Good to hear you remind people to stay away from the fresh lava fields. It's not safe.

Thank you Shawn and Amanda-Jo.

Thank you for taking the time to go through all the data and theories with us. You are teaching me a lot!!

Thanks a million, Shawn 🙋‍♀️❤️‍🔥

There were gravel roads layed over the new lava fields incredibly quickly after the last eruptions. I do wonder how the scientists and builders know when it's safe enough to do so and how much gravel to use.

An infrared camera sensor on a drone would be an interesting way to visualize the lava flow into the lava pond. Hopefully one of the Icelandic videographers will post a video. 😊 PS - Great update. Thank you.

Thanks for the summary update, Shawn. Some of those rumours started due to misreading or misunderstanding of the IMO update last Friday, when the eruption risk in three zones was added as ‘considerable’ to the risk map. That simply meant that, because of the land inflation, the possibility needed to be considered that there *might* be eruptions somewhere in those zones, but still so unlikely that no mitigation for that risk was proposed. By Monday, the IMO realised that was confusing & had little scientific basis and they formally retracted those risk factors from zones 1,4 & 7.

I was in Iceland last week and I fell in love instantly which I knew I would. I did have a few discussions about all this with a few people and the locals seem not that keen on The Blue Lagoon being open, it was open on and off while I was there. Very interesting chat with one of the geologists at The Lava Show in Reykjavik about the situation as well - plus got a nice piece of volcanic glass which has its origins down at Katla which is pretty cool. There are some individuals who are offering to take people out to the current eruption apparently and it’s very illegal and no one has authorisation to do so at this time due to the unpredictability of the situation In general everything seemed quite busy, from downtown to the bus tours I went on and the museums. I also know more than one person who is going to Iceland on a school trip in the upcoming months They did seem to be doing a lot of infrastructure out at places such as Gullfoss and Kerid which is assumedly to cope with increased visitors so hopefully TBL is not going to be the be all and end all for Iceland

Thank you! Impressive work, Bruce Garner! As soon as I saw a photo that showed the illegal volcano tourists cooking hot dogs on the lava crust (!!!) it was clear they weren’t trained scientists but foolish amateurs who must think they’re immortal. There was volcano tourism allowed last year, but that doesn’t mean tourism is always allowable. Like others, I would implore those folks to consider the risk they are asking rescue people to take on if the sight-seers run into trouble. You don’t have the liberty to endanger the lives of others and cause great sorrow to families. Please.

About tourists and potential dangers in the area. That fumarole at the bottom of the cone/next to the lava river is there because a tourist walked over the edge of the lava river and went through the crust with his foot and almost slipped into the lava river. Another tourist of the same group obviously stumbled at the lava field and almost fell over, I'm pretty sure that person did burn his hands on the lava crust. They were also standing with a child in the gas cloud so potentially they inhaled or were exposed to SO2/H2SO3/H2SO4 in the gasses. Visit didn't take more than 30 minutes but all 3 of them were very close to getting, at least, very serious injuries and were very lucky they could walk out on themselves. Don't think they know how close to death they have been.

Saint Lucia volcano has not erupted for a few thousand years. We used to go in. Me included. A few years ago the surface gave way and a man was badly burned. The new crater is now named after him. Gabriel's crater.

I met the geologist who took over the job that was left from the geologist that fell through. He is the geologist on the front of the National Geographic cover with Kileaua erupting. I would love to be up close to a lava flow but the dangers are real. I believe they are way more restricted in Hawai'i. You couldn't get any where near the eruption in 2018...unless you knew someone.

Dr Willsey - you were discussing the potential for failure of a lava crust over molten lava. One additional failure mode occurred to me last evening as I was watching the latest episode of the History Channel’s “The Curse of Oak Island”. Now the group pursuing the supposed buried treasure on Oak Island, Nova Scotia. It seems they are developing information that Vikings may have been active on Oak Island a good thousand years ago. The team has been searching sites in western Europe, looking for cultural signs that correlate with curious findings on Oak Island . Their search has taken them even to Iceland. They were taken to an ancient hermitage south of Hekla. I was struck that the monks were able to hand dig a sizable tunnel into a lava bluff with only the tools available there at the time. A close up of the tunnel wall showed that the stone was quite vesicular. It came to me that an insulating crust of basalt foam would help underlying magma to stay molten much longer while not providing the mechanical.strength of solid basaltic rock. So tread lightly dear tourist!

Thanks for the update! :) Another big danger with visiting this volcano in particular, is the gasses surrounding it. They can easily knock one unconcious without any prior warnings. And as the old saying goes, better safe than sorry, you'll have plenty of opportunities throughout life for amazing experiences. If you act rushed and irradic, there's a high chance you will not have more opportunities.

Great update Shawn. I've learned so much from your reports and Road Cut videos. I wish I had you as my geology professor when I went to college which really began in 1995 when I was 44. I was a late bloomer. Of course that would have been physically impossible for you to do.

Thank you, Shawn. It’s always good to hear from you.

Thanks for putting this together for us 👍🏼

Thank you for another interesting update, Shawn.

Thank-you once again Shawn, for yet another interesting update.

Thank you for the updates!

There have been many reports of people getting cut up and really hurting themselves on the Kilauea flows after the eruption in 2018. Some do not realize how sharp that lava really is.

Great update with a load of nice information. Thanks Shawn. 😊

Thanks Shawn! I love your updates!

I can't believe how many tourist want to get too close to the bubbling lava. 😮😮😮

Hey, Shawn. Thanks for all you're doing! As to those who question safety, it's good to remember that one can fix ignorance with education while stupid goes clear to the bone! My best to all, Brew

Thanks for update.

Thank ypu Shawn and Amanda Jo!

Thank you for sharing! 😊

Great update and analysis of the safety of allowing tourists on the eruption site. People have no idea of the danger of walking on what looks like solid lava...you can't see what lies beneath.

Yeah. 3 ppl went up the Montserrat volcano. 6 SAR went to get them. Volcano erupted and 9 died.

Thank you Shawn for the latest update,and thinking of the people who dare get close to the volcano ,common sense should tell you not to do it,but common sense is a rare quality today,people want what they want, and unfortunately that’s when accidents happen,lack of respect for the country’s rule of safety is also a problem ,just think a little ,and don’t get in trouble .

Thanks, Really appreciate your taking the time to educate us.

I really appreciated your answers to all those questions people ask.

Thanks for another great update and the fact-based reality check for those who think they are bulletproof. Much appreciated!

Thank you for that. Your comments towards the end are interesting. I guess from following your reports I have a far better understanding of the hazards etc. I would always be canny about the potential dangers probably because we live with boats and a marine environment but also living in a place where there are environmental dangers and lots of tourists!

Thanks for the lucid explanations!

Thanks Shawn, as you know with any discussion of possible outcomes, the odds are never zero. An eruption at the power plant is in fact possible with no data indicating that is coming the odds are too low to calculate. One huge quake could cause an eruption in seconds but nothing is showing that with other areas of weakness much more likely to be the actual pathway. My point is that for those who might talk it down please do not claim it is zero, but so unlikely that numbers cannot be reliably made. Without direct data projection is very difficult and always has footnotes of uncertainty.

I’m going to Iceland in two weeks on a tour and these videos are extremely informative. And my kids always tease me about my interest in rocks. And those people were idiots.

Always good educational and entertaining information.

I like that.. we can be ambassadors to help people understand the dangers. 🤗

Ty so much!!

The fact that people cannot apply common sense and see the inherent extreme danger of standing on the edge of a lava pond that is a catchment for an active volcano, is a sad reflection of their critical thinking skills. In addition you don’t just put your own life at risk, you also put potential rescuers lives at risk.

Thanks!

Risky to some is just another "I get off work a 4, let's do it" to others. "It's all just fun 🎉 and games, until it 💥🔥 becomes a 911 call 🚁🏥" Thank you for your excellent coverage, It's the only youtube coverage of iceland that I watch. No click bait drama, just facts and good general information.

Glad to see you ,- always busy as usual: great information details no other one has mentioned actually before - very appreciated ! Go ahead, wishing you the best))) 🌟

What cool graphs!!

I was there yesterday, you can clearly see the eruption site from the 2021 eruption hike, albeit in the far distance

George Ulrich was the scientist in Hawaii, he lived through that event and his burned suit is on display in the museum there...or it was last I knew.

Love this data geek approach 👍🏼

Thanks again

Thanks for the warnings and the info. Sugar Land Texas

Thx Prof. ✌🏻

The problem with these daredevils, knowing what they are doing or not, only encourages others to also try. I suspect they would expect to be rescued if they got into difficulties, and that, is the most selfish part. Everyone is invincible, until they arent. Rant done. I keep imagining lava sprites are just out of sight below the crater rim splashing around having a great time. What an awesome event. And thanks for keeping us informed, shawn, with some great contributors too for the team/ crew.

top top geology prof!

Hi Shawn, useful info about tourist access and risks. Amazing how the area continues to 'grow/uplift'. Is this a typical way volcano's grow....slow and steady? Sue, Adelaide Australia

Thank you for your intelligent and timely info re: the Iceland situation. 8-)

Hello everyone.

I can almost be certain that the people that ventured out over the lava, did it for clout.

Congrats Bruce Gardener for making sense of the data in the graphic.

Thanks.

I have been wondering about the lava propagating to the east as well. When the northeast wall of the cone collapsed several weeks ago, there was a flow under the cone wall, evidenced by a line of gas plumes in the accumulated spatter there. I have not been able to find the cam on the mountain to the east since the day of the collapse, but it appears that some of the moss to the east keeps getting ignited by intermittent outbreaks on that side.

One example to use for the "crusted over lava" complaints - when a lake has ice on the top, can you fall through it and drown? Yes, of course, you need to make sure the ice is thick enough to support you. Same exact issue with lava and the crust on it - can it support you or not.

Hi Shawn, thanks for your really clear and informative updates. One thing you didn’t mention in your discussion of the risks of getting close to the volcano is the danger of the gases. My understanding is that they are highly toxic and can also pool close to the ground, creating areas where there a invisible pools of toxic gas, is that right?

You said standard deviation, I like it. The name is familiar from an education video I have.ty

That graph at 17:00 looks like the stockmarket.

For perspective think of this. We see the lava darken & solidified & think it's hard rock or like the charcoal briquettes in a grill the hot ones are red the darker ones not so much. We prepare when we cook over open fires. Remember your grill might get up to 300 to 500°F & burns if your not prepared. The lava under the dark cooled volcanic crust can be 1500° F to 4000° F (~ 900 °C to 2200° C). If there is only 4 or 5 inches of the cooler insulating volcanic crust above it & that breaks with your weight. The liquid magma can be just inches below the solid crust. Imagine what kind of shock it would be for your foot or any skin to get near it. You would also have to find a way to get back to transportation & to get medical care. Then there are the pockets of gas like sulfur dioxide which by themselves can be incapacitating.

Hey Shawn! Have you ever visited Eldfell? I think that eruption is so interesting!

Thanks for the good educational updates and advice. I’m learning so much. Have a special interest in Icelandic volcanic activity since my grandson went on a school trip to Iceland on February 8th. Shawn do you think the possibility of the lava flow entering the sea will create the same problems as last time that happened ? Thanks Kim UK

@5:00 With the back and forth of the images showing the inflation, it looks like it is breathing... neato!

Fine thank you, hope you and yours are well?

I saw curse of oak island last night and some of the guys were in grindavik , must have been right before the eruptions started last fall.

Curious about pronunciation. You keep pronouncing “Hagafells” et al with a T sound at the end , as in . Why is that? I finally figured out the represented by Þ and am wondering if this is a similar deviation from most western pronunciation.

Aloha from Makaha.......I'm wondering when Kilauea wakes up....and where....great way to start my morning with your updates....

looking forward to the Myron Cook live stream!

Seems to me seeing it via drone, or the live cameras on RU-vid is wonderful and it just doesn’t seem necessary to put oneself at risk hiking on top of supposedly cooled lava. Also the potential of breathing poisonous air that can waft in any direction at any time, These tourist’s put the emergency services at risk when they do this.

So a more detailed analysis of the problem of risk needs several bits of information. The insulative power of any material depends on its ability to conduct heat. Water is a poor insulator because it can move around (convection) and because it’s a heat sink. Solid copper is a poor insulator because of linear conductivity. Complex materials often make good thermal insulator because the complexity is often the result of state transitions in the material. For example if copper is a good conductor and you break up the copper with say chalk, then the heat can only be conducted for a distance, then transferred to the chalk, then back to the copper. Mafic lava is filled with silicon dioxide, particularly when doped is an amorphous solid, it does not crystallize in the same way that salts do. As a consequence when you have gas trapped under pressure and it is released, that releases heat leaving a cooler silicon manifold that is harder, permitting cold gas to remain. While glass is not a bad heat conductor, when it is combined with air in fine structures it becomes a great insulator (e.g. the insulation in your attic). And so we now see the risk, as lava is hot it’s expanded, as it shrinks it releases gas and cools leaving a complex structure with many state transitions between the heat sink (the air) and the source (the lava tube) as a consequence a source can be quite hot but the surface quite cool. And the problem is we cannot often see the processes that go into forming the tube, how much the lava was stretched and made brittle to accommodated both cooling and tube formation. And there in lies the problem . in the photo Shawn shows we see land inflation east and northeast of the barrier. if we consider a flat line sitting on a flat line, if we want to pull one flat line to make it a semicircle the net result, if the pulled line is a fixed density (mass per length of line), is that the line needs to become less dense, but in these complex materials density (mass per unit of area in the case) of the crust is not uniform. A good example is get some putty and pull it apart, if the putty is fresh it stretches, but if it gets old and dries out it breaks at specific points. In this case the breaks may not be vertical to the surface and if you step or drive on the weak spot you essentially are filling in the density hole. As a general rule anytime the ground is smoking sulfuric acid it’s a good sign that one would be foolish to test the surface strength by compressing it. It’s a given that the mineral is giving rise to the gas, both losing mass and volume and restructuring. And if the restructuring is not evident at the surface it means it’s esoteric, which means you do not know what the structure is at depth. You could use a large workman’s spike and try to drive it through the surface, but that’s not going to be a definite safe guard, it only tells you one spot is safe, three inches over may be unsafe.

Grateful thanks for the update. Di……Cumbria.

The most obviously dangerous aspect of the spatter cone in the livestream is the high level of toxic gas emissions, part of which are visibly sinking, indicating that they might pool on low ground.

Another excellent update 👍👍. I'm particular, I found the section on "stupid tourism" to be very educational. This topic is a very delicate balancing act between safety and natural curiosity for all concerned. The way you dealt with this was very diplomatic and highlights the issues and dangers that exist. Such a shame you can't legislate for stupid people though....

you should go find the clip od the guy running from the very first eruption, ran out his luck bar almost that day

I read on the "Iceland Monitor" from April 18th. this: "... volcanology researcher Þorvaldur Þórðarson says that it seems that the eruption is slowly fading out. He is however worried about the high seismic activity in the whole country.... " - High seismic activity??? 🤔