You’re still in high school and investing, you’re already ahead of many people your age. I didn’t start long term savings until 22 and that’s still pretty early. At your age I recommend putting extra money in longer term safe plays like HYSA or blue chip/ETFs. You’re still young so being loose with your money isn’t too bad honestly so still have fun, but investing a bit into your future will pay off very nicely in long term.
Its fucking WILD that one of the most nuanced and well-informed economic takes in my social media bubble, is not a newspaper or a politician but Brandon Glizzyboi Ewing
@@4purs yes, it isn't, but it should be, silly goose. I don't think we need to literally spell it out in the job description, but the ideal way to set the system up is so that the meta for politicians is to discredit their rivals by educating the public of their ineffective policy plans. That is the ideal. Optimizing for that intended way to play would require sitting politicians to force other politicians, as well as themselves, to play fair. So yeah I know they're always gonna have skin in the game, but still, there are ways to balance it. Placing a limit on political donations, for starters. Give all sitting politicians a fat pay increase to balance it out, who cares?? Just don't let the rich own the government!! anyway im getting side tracked Plus, the economy is kind of a big deal -.- You'd think a newspaper should at least have a dedicated spot for it, no?
Oklahoman here. Walmart should change their slogan to "everyday raising prices". Literally every time I've visited the grocery store the past 2 years, prices have gone up on something I buy frequently. Oh, and rent obviously is going up dramatically.
Thatcher was actually quite unpopular at the time when she was in power as far as I know, at least in Scotland and some places in England, because not only did she stop the free milk program for children during a financial crisis, earning her the nickname “Thatcher the milk snatcher” but she also destroyed several industries in Scotland with her monetarism, Reaganomics bs policies. Industries such as shipbuilding, steel, coal, engineering, car and textile manufacturing were essentially all completely stripped of government subsidies overnight while she outsourced the work to other countries and privatised the energy sector, causing rampant unemployment and absolutely devastating communities across the country. It was catastrophic, the privatisation of the energy sector is still hurting the working class today. People in Scotland and northern England hated her so much that they literally celebrated her death in the streets like it was New Year’s Eve. But tories liked her. Because of course they would. She made them all richer as she made everyone else more poor.
yes, Thatcher seemed to have been quite unpopular even during her time as prime minister. But I don't think the reaction to her death is a good indicator of that, since that was more than twenty years after she left office
I would describe Thatcher as divisive rather than unpopular. She didn’t win three general elections for no reason. She’s divisive in the sense that back then there were people who absolutely hated her guts, and others who worshiped the ground she walked on. The same is still largely true. To some, she was the embodiment of everything British Conservatism stands for. To others, she’s the evil witch who wrecked unions, destroyed traditional manufacturing, sold off council homes, privatized key sectors like energy, water and the railways. I personally stand with the latter camp, and I think she’s a perfect example of how policies enacted 30 to 40 years ago, are ruining people’s lives in the present.
Yeah, our country is irreversibly changed as a result of her policies and her ideology. We now by far a much weaker country and now more unequal than ever, and she broke electoral politics so badly that even the opposition subscribes to a soft, 'moderate' version of neoliberalism.
@@Mmmm1ch43lyeah true, I guess the point I was trying to make with that was that people didn’t forget the pain she caused them during her time in office, it’s not every day you see elderly people celebrating a politicians death like that, literally popping champagne and shit
I think half the problem is that every figure is in billions or trillions most people have zero comprehension. If you wrote spending or debt in a figure like this year your share of the debt rose by 5k or something people would care a little. Same goes for any government spending figure it means litterally nothing to the average person and maybe thats the point who knows.
It's also the fact that the average person in America pays about $17k in taxes a year. The fact that the debt grows by 3.6 trillion a year is so astronomically unfathomable it just doesn't mean anything. I can't afford to pay more in taxes, I still need the roads to go work, the school for my kid, etc. Its just disconnected from the average person. So telling me that my $1.7k of my money went to debt is meaningless to me. Tell me what percent of my income went to Boeing to build shit planes I'm to scared to fly. Tell me how much I paid Lockheed Martin to build 10k missiles for a war I don't support. Tell me how much of my income was given to tax cuts for Oil companies to contaminate my water. The debt is important, but the real solution to the debt is fixing the corruption and misappropriation of our tax dollars, not shaming Americans for stuff they never even had the choice to vote on. I wouldn't of voted to bail out the Banks in 08. I didn't agree to give out loans to businesses with no checks or balances on who actually got them.
@@EphemeralDustdebt should matter to you. Its the creeping death. I agree with your point that shitty spending is digging the hole but debt is the mf at the top trying to throw the dirt back on top of you with a backhoe. Get money out of politics and ban lobbying and investments for sitting gov officials and we might have a chance.
It's a good idea for making debt more understandable but a lot of people don't understand big numbers, they don't understand percentages... it seems like a education issue more than anything. Perhaps you could make more examples based on the average to make it easier but I don't think that's a solution.
Honestly I love Atrioc, I learned so much from this guy and I have never been to his stream just watch his youtube content and sometimes vod off youtube!
Yeah, Atrioc comes off as a bit of a deficit hawk to me, which I think is the wrong thing to focus on. The problem is that the expansionary monetary policy pursued by the Biden admin is mainly propping up the asset price bubble imo, rather than creating better jobs (though he certainly has made some moves and is vastly better than his predecessor). If government spending redistributes money at the cost of a deficit in the short term and/or inflation, it can 100% be worth it. But we're seeing the opposite - the money is being wasted but the inflation and down the line the deficit is going to hurt the average person. Deficit spending isn't problematic in and of itself, it's the fact that it's being used the wrong way.
It’s more that Reagan and Thatcher’s situations were very different from Millei’s. Thatcher and Reagan inherited economies that had problems stemming largely from outside factors (energy crises, mostly). Fundamentally they were still sound economies, and would have most likely rebounded to performing well after some time. Millei may be batshit insane but he’s not wrong about Argentina’s problems being mostly self inflicted. Countries don’t have a half dozen different exchange rates and get considered to be fiscally hopeless by the IMF unless they actively try to sabotage themselves. The argentinian welfare state is unsustainable, which is almost impressive given how they don’t have any demographic problems.
Argentina is underway way different circumstances. It's facing waay higher inflation and they legit need a chainsaw to their spending. Reagan/Thatcher are bad for other reasons.
@@awijaya2116 Yeah that's more fair I don't actually know much about the modern Argentine economy other than that it seems to be a Lovecraftian mess that continually worsens every year. Though I do know a bit more about Peron, his exploits with Mussolini, Hitler, Fascism, and strangely pro worker bend in economic policy. Plus Milei is deranged but if he did stabilize the Argentine economy somewhat it would probably be good for all of LatAm.
@awijaya2116 To say the issue is the welfare state politics, rather than Neoliberal politics who fucked the country sideways every. fucking. time, is kind of disingenuous or plain ignorant of sufficient context. From Plan Condor to Memenism, then with the 145b loan Macri took (while they openly admitted to having inhereted a very stable and debt-free economy), all while allowing capital to freely flow out of the country after doing stupid-easy carry-trade, allowing the richest people to migrate out of the country to avoid paying taxes, etc, seem mighty big compared to allowing people not to literally die on the streets like dogs. Don't get me wrong, rampant corruption, useless politicians and a clear social tension about everything being fucked up for literal decades straight won't help any fucking society, but come on ... "Welfare state is unsustainable" is FAR from the issue.
I don't get it either. I agree that spending needs to be cut and that it's unsustainable on a fundamental level. When I researched Milei a few months ago it seemed like yes he's trying to cut gov spending and his financial policy is very different but he's also massively favoring the upper class and a lot of his ideas would unneccessarily affect the lower class for no actual benefit for the state, like removing a lot of workers rights and giving landlords the ability to do uncapped rent hikes and charge any currency (there is/was a limit on how much you can exchange too) at a time when inflation is this high and he's additionally devaluing the peso seems insane to me. Sure there's parts that aren't totally bad and might perhaps work but overall it seems pretty bad to me.
I don't think atrioc has any need to worry on Powell maintaining rates, he has been heard behind the scenes talking about wanting to be the next Volker
Ya well Powell already lost being able to be volker 2.0. we still have inflation. We all know they needed to raise rates higher. They can't because the entire banking system is on edge of collapse
Hope for Argentina's sake that Milei proves to be a surprising success for them, country has had a rough run of it. Don't think it's likely to work out though, even for ideologies with a less sordid history than anarchocapitalism, ardent ideologues are rarely good news. Think he's likely to bring both short term and long term pain to the already floundering Argentinian economy.
Anyone see that hearing where someone was getting questioned for a bag of rivets costing $90,000? Don't remember the details, but it was a good example of gross spending. Also Moo
Important detail. Central bank doesn't literally set the rate to a specific number that banks have to follow. They do it by inc/dec the money supply. Central bank buys securities in open market, more money gets circulated into the economy, rates go down. Vice versa if they sell. It based around a targeted policy rate that the central bank sets. Essentially what they would like rates to be and plan their activity around that target rate.
It is bizarre seeing America go through the same problems African countries( like my own country, Zambia) have gone through and are still going through. Zambia had pulled out massive loans from the IWF and other entities which it was not able to pay back due to misallocation of funds(our good friend corruption). It led to rising debt forcing the government to spend most of its money on paying back debt instead of investing in education and healthcare which would have been a net positive. And you know what the government decided to do to solve this problem? You guessed right pull out more loans just further worsening the problem. Its better since we got a new president actually trying his best but he inherited a fixer upper it still needs a lot of work. I wrote all this to say it is interesting and also frightening to see American politicians make similar decisions to African politicians. If it keeps going this way, from looking at the experience of my own country, it may not get to good in the far future hopefully it changes.
Not remotely the same. Us inflation rate is currently inline with historical averages. With the underlying inflation being mostly a product of insurance rates and housing prices, 2 things raising the interest rate will not solve.
@@Nun195 I am sorry maybe it's me but I am not sure what you are pushing back against. My argument was that American and African politicians' decisions are eerily similar. Pulling out massive loans leading a almost unmanageable debt, spending majority of its GDP just to pay off that debt instead of investing in valuable resources and infrastructure and then pulling more loans or printing money just worsen the issue. I am not too knowledgeable to the nuisances of the US inflation rate or interest rates to confidently speak on it but what I am saying is that if a Country's leadership is making a series of decisions like this, it is not a good sign.
As a farmer, most farmers run off of operations loans becuase of the fact you get paid once a year. Rates going up will put a good portion of farmers out of business depending on what commodities are doing
yo Big A, resident Argentinean viewer, Id love to hear your opinion on our current situation. Because for my whole life it felt like we just have some kind of cheat code to keep piling up more and more debt without feeling the consequences, which even bothers surrounding countries. Maybe its just me, but I want a video on argentinean economic history from you, I think it could be interesting for everyone due to how particular it is. Thanks for the content anyways, love what you do.
Since most of the politicians already make money on the side from insider trading, lobbyists and whatnot, why not just have all of the congressmen give up their base salaries that is inconsequential to them and put that toward the deficit? They would still be paid outside of the official job, and government would operate more like a non profit.
Just to spread a bit of hope, there ARE better systems out there that can bring debt down. It might be unlikely in the US, but a cool system is the so-called "Debt Break" in Switzerland, which allows for a stretchy spending strategy where you overspend (increase debt) when the economy is down and underspend (pay off debt) when it's booming It has its flaws, but it was able to bring down stupid amounts of debt in the 90s to now some of the lowest debt to gdp ratios in Europe
OK, but the problem with chasing 'a balanced budget' from the point of view of someone who was actually around for the whole 'Tea Party movement' thing is that in practice it's almost always used as any excuse to gut government services people actually need and should have and could actually be great value for money in terms of reducing inequality, creating jobs and wealth, meeting climate objectives and improving the overall standard of living; to instead fund the Army or police another few trillion here and there, or cut taxes for those who pay very little in taxes anyway. In theory, if for example, America was run like an actual 'representative democracy', we would have Medicare For All and have cut the Army budget by like 50%. For the UK it's the worse of two worlds, we don't even have that much left to reliably tax apart from wealth held by rich people from abroad, and even the police are underfunded.
The duality of big A's comment section is like "damn, the economic blah blah blah stocks blah blah blah inflation is crazy" and then also "glizzy cow go moo"
The irony of Atrioc attacking Thatcher and Reagan after he praised Volcker despite the fact that both Thatcher and Reagan pushed for higher interest rates and Reagan appointed Volcker and gave him full reign. Volcker only did what he did because he had the full support of Reagan.
I know that when before the interest rates were raised, one of the problems with low interest debt was that it fueled businesses and investments that made no logical sense. With that in mind, I feel like lowering them again shouldn't affect more legitimate companies, but I still wonder if it would somehow push the now "Big Six" 's stock prices to even higher and more unreasonable heights.
Yes it will. QE will inflate asset prices. In fact it already has, the market is forward looking. Just the expectation of rate cuts this year is the big reason why the mag 7 has been on a bull run since 2023
Well OK most start ups fail because they cannot pay back the money on their loans that they got from investors, the result is that people will start buying stocks that are more trustworthy like the big six so you’re right
MMT isn't 'no taxes only spend', you still tax to maintain the currency value. The problem isn't that we are spending, it is that we let corporations and individual rake in billions, use unrealized gains as collateral, and dodge their already insanely low tax liability. We need a balance, but you can't cut aid to families when they are already overloaded with consumer debt, so we need to quit subsidizing greed that almost exclusively benefits the already wealthy. Once you've tackled that, then we can focus on making existing programs more efficient by cutting out red tape. Inflation is just a cover for continuing to gouge record profits at the expense of the working class. Inflation is just as strong in sectors where the supply side has recovered or even rebounded beyond pre-COVID. Not that any of that matters because Jerome will fold to Biden, inequality will continue to grow, the deficit will keep growing, and the proles will keep struggling. Still begging for a crumb of trickle down...
every time Brandon talks economics I just skip 99% of the time. He doesn’t know much about MMT and it’s kinda obvious. Hearing “MMT-pilled” made me cringe. Either he’s reading every mainstream orthodox economist slander about it or just hasn’t actually read anything from the heterodox economists that developed MMT very thoroughly.
Not just because of the election, but with the insane levels of personal debt today, jpow can’t afford to keep the interest rates higher for longer. It’ll cause a lot more defaults and the recession they’ve been trying to soft land from the whole time. It’ll be a a delicate dance with cutting rates and inflation and holding rates and preventing banking collapse
I swear Jerome Powell is personally printing more money to make the price of gas go up as I drive into the gas station (that’s happened to me like 3 times in the last few months)
658billion dollars in interest payments makes pretty much exactly 2000$ per US citizen each year. Only in interest and the tax base isn't the same as the 330-340 million citizens.
@Atrioc - "Who is that guy with the extremely punchable face?" - proceeds to bring up a picture of someone who looks exactly like him (without facial hair).
For the people that want a crash, honestly whatever happens it’s inevitable…. Cut rates the market goes up and housing prices go up IN THE SHORT TERM but inflation will also come back faster than we have ever seen…. Keep rates high like they are now we will see a slow recession like we already are seeing with major layoffs and prices of regular things being high for normal people to afford
Cutting spending is generally a bad idea. Congress never cuts military spending or subsidies to companies that don’t need them. Those cuts will always affect poor people who are on the brink. The real solution would be undoing the tax cuts from the trump and bush presidencies. That would add tens, maybe hundreds, of billions of dollars back to the budget
well, heres the thing about doing things that suck now, but could help in the future. I don't need to eat 10 years from now, I need to eat now. ya know?
@@DynamoTwentyTwo it doesn't sound great because im fucking hungry. Thats why higher tax brackets should have more taxes. It's not punishment for being rich, its just paying your fair share. same goes for corps
The problem is people hear “we need to cut spending” as “social security needs to go”. When we say “we need to cut spending” I think we should be clear that means military spending and some foreign affairs, and also increasing top marginal taxes and closing loopholes. Also capital gains tax. That’s part of the reason Josh Howley can be right about budgeting being a problem, but his solution is a detriment to society.
I’m not sure if this comment section knows the difference between being a deficit hawk vs acknowledging that the size of the deficit is something worth considering when making the budget
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I have to be honest as a large animal veterinarian who works heavily with farmers in Iowa. Those 20% interest rates are their 9/11. It destroyed families and caused the concentration of farming we see today. I totally understand and agree that we need to fix inflation. But I think the attack needs to be more than just interest rates.
I have an idea, what if we do the "good short term, bad long term" thing and, before the bad starts happening, we do another "good short term, bad long term"? Then keep repeating it forever. I am a genius.
It’s insane to me that Atrioc always talks about inflation like it’s a force from heaven that the government simply cannot influence outside of monetary policy. They could also increase the supply of in demand goods and enforce price controls on key commodities (such as rents).
@@ExySmexy An economy that build things is better than a deindustrialized economy based on financial tools that works like a ponzi scheme. All the countries historically have achieved success thanks to government strong arming to industrialize and become international great powers.
It is fine for governments to borrow money to invest in things like infrastructure, because they get a return on that money as long as it is a reasonable investment. Atriocs point about having an extra $658b if they hadn't borrowed is disingenuous because if the government had not taken out any debt then the economy wouldn't be the size it is, and they would therefore have a lot less tax revenue etc.
Reagan and thatcher get grouped together a lot but they actually differed pretty heavily on a lot of economic issues. Reagan did do a lot of deficit spending and therefore heavily increased the debt, but thatcher didn’t do that at all (she was also way less popular at the time)
US debt has some positives. For instance, in order to be the global reserve currency, there has to be enough of tjay currency to use. If we had no debt, we almost certainly wouldn't have the dollar be the standard because there wouldn't be enough dollars for the world to use. The us isn't a big enough percentage of the whole global economy to warrant all of our special statuses, nor do we have predicted his speed growth on the horizon. Debt is a big ole band aid for that too.
Fun fact: the Federal Reserve is privately owned and generates profits for its shareholders, which also happen to be the owners of the country’s largest banks
Yes and no. It’s an independent government agency and the central banks are set up as private corps but the central banks are not owned by a person like how Walden family owns Walmart or something.
The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?
I would avoid index funds, mutual funds, and specific stocks for the time being. Right now, the best option is a fixed income of five percent. Put money aside for the times when the market really starts to bounce back.
45% of Americans do not invest in the stock market because of lack of guidance. Every year you don't invest, you are falling behind. I’m hitting numbers in the stock market I used to dream of… Going from $50k to $600k in my portfolio is surreal all thanks to insights from my financial advisor.
I've heard debt:GDP ratio is what matters, not just the absolute debt number. Anyone care to explain that? I guess the idea is that if GDP is high enough, debt can be paid off eventually.
Is it crazy to suggest a decade of the goverment just doing nothing and paying off all principal debt? Like dave ramsy. How can have yhe president and the house live off raman for a few years.
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