I’d believe him more if he said us economy is doing better than the rest of the world lool. The less shittiest economy more believable than great economy
@@4purs I mean that's basically it. It's not great, but it's still better than anywhere else. If you live in the US you have to take that as a win. Being a reserve currency is a massive W.
@@mariox204thank you! This kind of political turmoil and line drawing is a much more intense version of what I recall running around during the 2006-2010 range fs
@@TheIsioisinot brain rot. A lot of visual media, even long form ones (which aren’t typically associated with doomscrolling or brain rot) benefit from musical backing or accompaniment.
You should be making this point on a lot of comments under this video and others, not just picking an easy target. Otherwise, you just come off as a jerk.@@testacals
Every job ive worked so far there was a strangulation on pay, and hours with a massive increase in work load which leads to multiple good people leaving at a time. at my current job a pier of mine has 3 roommates in a town house and another one works multiple jobs. The only people that are doing "fine" are already retired or are in manager positions. This is a great video where you can actually laugh at how bad things are getting lol.
The mechanisms of a stable labor market boss fight don’t have to be evaluated, I just have to cheese “press X to doubt where in a recession”50 times harder before the clock runs out.
So atrioc is telling me to invest all my net worth, take out a third mortgage on my house, and invest it all in Doge? Sounds good! Thanks for the advice!
Not really... there were a few good questions or caveats that gave JP the time to provide a solid response but many were the same exact type of questions. Are we in a recession? Will the rate changes continue at this rate? Unemployment numbers were higher than last report, is this in response to further fears? I quickly recorded each reporter's line of questions and follow-ups for a quick summary. Yeah I mean they sound very complex and well articulated but realistically only a few actually dig into value of the data and move a bit more. The line of questioning is generally just a bunch pf media agency's attempts at getting more information that can't or really shouldn't be divulged. The Fed inciting panic is a sure fire way of just sending the economy and markets into the gutter. Big A glazed a few of the reporters a bit too much but the best one imo is from the MarketWatch (reporter 14) and American Banker (reporter 17). First reporter, Fed expectation was .25%, inflation data came out firmer than expected, retail good, GDP good, why do a .50%? Is the Fed concerned about the labor market? Should we expect more .50%s in the months ahead? Second - Was the decision close? First time since 2005 there was a dissent, was weight clearly in favor of a .50%? Should we expect this pace moving forward? Third - Why do you see the labor market stabilizing, what is the mechanism there, what do you see as the risks? Fourth - Does today's action constitute catch-up given the recent "substantial" revisions to employment data? Or is this larger than typical rate cut a function of the elevated nominal level of the policy rate, such that the accelerated cadence could be expected to continue? Question revised to - Is this due to what happened to the employment data between meetings or is this about the level of the funds rate relative to what might be expected if you are trying to maintain equilibrium. Follow-up - With the larger cut today, is there any signal inferred about how the committee approach end state on the balance sheet, policy? Fifth - Is it your view that this is a function of a normalizing labor market amid improved supply, or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning is taking place here given that other metrics of labor demand have softened too? Why should we not expect a further deuteriation if policy is still restrictive? Follow-up - On the point of seeing rising lay-offs, if that were to happen would the committee already be too late in avoiding a recession? Sixth - What would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market, you are pricing in by the end of the next year 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher level of unemployment rate. will you be moving to a more preemptive monetary policy style rather than what you did with inflation waiting for data to give a signal? Follow-up - How sensitive will you be to the forecast? Seventh - Can you walk through the specific data points of what you know about the job market? What do you expect to learn about the scale of the cut of the next meeting? Eighth - Do you view a (quoted) level of job creation as worrying or alarming? Or would you be content to stick at that level? Do you think that further labor market cooling will have to come from job losses and not job openings dropping out? Ninth - Many have lived in 0-Near 0 Fed funds rate, some think we are headed in that direction again. What is the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm? Follow-up - Does the deeper rate cut before the election have political motivations? Tenth - What message are you trying to send American consumers, American people of this unusually large rate cut? Follow-up - Is the Fed Reserve declaring a victory over inflation and rising prices? Eleventh - Would love to know how the committee is thinking about the persistence of housing inflation? Do you think you can return to 2% with where housing inflation is at? Follow-up - What is the likelihood that cutting rates would reignite housing demand to drive prices up, how would you react to that? Twelfth - How much do you see keeping the unemployment rate rising too much from acting now, versus just 'The labor market is strong'? Do you see today's move as a response to not reducing rates last meeting? Thirteenth - Mortgage rates have already dropped in anticipation of this announcement, how much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year? Fourteenth - Would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in low odds of a 50 point move after the CPI number came out, with small odds pricing in a 50 point cut? Fifteenth - Does the big revisions place your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate? Would going above the 4.4 projection trigger another 50 basis point cut? Sixteenth - Should a sitting US president have a say in Fed decisions on interest rates? Seventeenth - Are you in alignment with other agencies on the changes to the Basel III endgame? Follow-up - What does the Fed have to align itself on the merger? Eighteenth - Are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation? Are they not roughly balanced?
Shout out to Big A for making things like this digestible to a brainrotted person like myself - I literally under no circumstances would have ever watched this otherwise
Nah, it's the way they estimate payroll numbers. They assume that for every new business, x amount of jobs will be added. But with the gig economy on the rise, we see more LLCs opened by solopreneurs that don't have any employees
@@ccc3 Per US Bureau Labor os Statistics: “JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions: A specific position exists and there is work available for that position. The position can be full-time or part-time, and it can be permanent, short-term, or seasonal, and The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time, and There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening. What is "active recruiting?" Active recruiting means the establishment is taking steps to fill a position. It may include advertising in newspapers, on television, or on radio; posting Internet notices; posting "help wanted" signs; networking with colleagues or making "word of mouth" announcements; accepting applications; interviewing candidates; contacting employment agencies; or soliciting employees at job fairs, state or local employment offices, or similar sources. DOES NOT INCLUDE: Positions open only to internal transfers, promotions or demotions, or recall from layoffs Openings for positions with start dates more than 30 days in the future Positions for which employees have been hired, but the employees have not yet reported for work Positions to be filled by employees of temporary help agencies, employee leasing companies, outside contractors, or consultants. A separate form is used to collect information from temporary help/employee leasing firms for these employees.” If a startup isn’t actively recruiting then they shouldn’t be counted.
@@ccc3 I tried posting the criteria for what the US Bureau Labor of Statistics uses to determine a new job, but apparently it’s too long so RU-vid deletes it. One is that the company must be actively recruiting which wouldn’t include gig workers. They do however consider posting internet notices which is hilarious because it seems like half of them aren’t actively looking for a candidate.
"Its basically fine if you're talking to business people" yeah Jerome, because business people always had the best foresight when it came to the economy and how it affects lower income people. I loved it when the business people said everything is good in 2007/2008
Their profit margin is rowing YoY... How? Jack up the price and cut employees count. It's a death spiral. In 08 people were having parties until the last minute 😂
He has been saying we are gonna be in a recession since late 2020. Had to stop watching his economy vids because they’re all just doomer doomer doomer and then 8 years later when it goes down he can claim he was right.
this is insane to me that this is how the government still works.. like if .25 is small and .5 is huge... why is there no math involved to find the right number between them? are there really no models that show how an economy works with regard to interest rates?
.5 is only huge relatively. It is considered to be big because people are expecting .25 and .5 implies that perhaps there is something wrong or at least a reason to speeden the process. Generally larger cuts implies two possible situations, 1. The economy is doing amazing and we can fight inflation in a faster time scale because of it. (I don't think anyone believes this) or 2. Unemployment is growing or is much higher than wanted and we want to fight it before we go into recession (AKA we might be fucked). It is completely in the realm of possibility, that if the Gov could get away with an even higher cut (.75 or 1) without causing panic, they would do it.
For context, Jerome Powell has to pretty much always say that the economy is 'fine' because the amount of economic activity heavily relies on peoples beliefs about where the economy is heading, almost like a self fulling prophecy. Imagine if he said 'actually its not good', you would get an immediate market crash, less investment and so on. If people believe the economy is fine there is a much higher chance that recession will be avoided
@@sicknames4296 your post implies he has to lie about the economy being fine. It could be fine and he’ll say it’s fine or it could be bad and he’ll still say fine. At some point it’s a lie.
@@cornheadahh That's not necessarily true. He could genuinely believe the economy is in good shape but the next year could show that he is completely wrong, or he could like you said believe the economy is bad but still saying it's okay. I think you assume that economic forecasts are nearly perfect, they are absolutely not. You can never know exactly where the economy is heading even when you are the Federal Reserve. It's also important to say that they do sometimes recognise when the economy is obviously in bad shape (2008 GFC, 2020 COVID)
Every time, Brandon, you astound me with your charisma, intelligence, and the fluidity with which you can convey your understanding of numerous complex and interesting topics. I genuinely think you’re helping to make the individuals that find your videos into better people. You’re younger than I am, but you’re an inspiration. I hope I can grow up to be like you one day.
“The US economy is basically fine” Dude, imagine if you asked your friend how they were doing and they said “Oh, I’m _basically_ fine”. You know that means they are NOT doing well.
I love how he's like, well Im talking to the top 1% and they seem fine, so I dunno what you guys are talking about when you say unemployment and recession. All the rich people, err I mean fellow normal people I know arent struggling at all. Like of course they arent! Those people are the people profiting off the inflation. They are the ones who know before we do when something is gonna crash and burn. Why do you think all these ceo's are selling their stocks before their companys stock plummets? You think its because they might know something that the financial muggles dont? In a recession its always the poor that get hurt, and the rich who have the inside information who try to make a profit off the loss and misery of others. This guy is so out of touch. (not atrioc, but the fed guy) I just wonder why they reduced it and how is it going to help the 1%. Whats their plan, cause though it might help stop the masses from rioting over a depression, I do have to wonder what the benefit is for them, other then avoiding a mutiny of the american people against their bad management. I doubt they arent using the reduction of interest in some way to further take advantage of something.
You're clowing on him for his responses to the questions but like what do you want him to say? "Yeah we're fucked, all of us are panicking." That's probably the single best way of guaranteeing a recession happens.
Ignoring the problem is how we got here in the first place (and yes, we are in a recession pretending we are not is not going to change that). Pretending everything is great is a spit in the face to everyone who is not doing great (which is most people in the US). You can admit there are issues and try to explain how you plan to solve them in a calm and collected manner. What Powell is doing is just reenacting the dog in the burning house. Everything is not fine.
Agreed. If you tell people you're in a recession you'll likely get a run on the banks or something worse. I wish they were more honest, but I also understand the desire to not cause a panic and make things worse. I'm not sure what the right answer is though. Maybe a more skilled and connected politician could be honest with the people and pray the News delivers their message well.
@@chasewilson3693 it’s easy to say things are not fine. Jerome has to be really careful with what he says. The moment he says “no we’re not fine, we’re in a recession” it will only accelerate the recession and cause bank runs and make everything way worse lol.
@@4purs why would it cause bank runs? If you are in a recession it's not like your money is not in the bank. Bank runs happen when people think the banks don't have their money and so everyone runs to get it out as quickly as possible. A recession might make people pull out their savings from the stock market and spend less money as they know they are at risk of being fired, but that's about it.
Jerome Powell is completely out of touch with the average American if he thinks “no one is worried about inflation anymore.” My brother in Christ, that’s ALL the average American talks about if you mention the economy to an average person.
He's literally just providing the necessary foreshadowing clips for all the financial youtubers to play at the start of a "so, inflation got worse" video.
They're just trying to drag out this circus as long as they possibly can without addressing the actual problem. Because that has no financial incentives. Why would they want to sabotage their own gains? This is going to suck for all of us.
The Marketing Monday videos are great and make business interesting and easy to watch. It would be fantastic if you could do longer forms on specific topics such as analysis of inflation, stock prices, interest rates, housing, etc.
For real though he does have to say "the economy is fine" because if he said anything else he would send the economy into a frenzy. Compared to most countries after COVID, the US did really well.
The delivery was pretty telling. Jerome likes his seat and he doesn’t want to be the party pooper on election season. No matter who wins, either would surely remember he wasn’t dancing when the music was playing
I'm not too deep into these base rates but why couldn't he lowered it by just 0,33% or 0,4%.. why are there only 0,25% steps (0,25% / 0,5% / 0,75%...)? 😅
