Most most major economies had been destroyed by the war while the US mainland was never bombed and that’s why we were able to turn our factories to consumer goods from war materials and keep people employed after the war. Our economy grew because we were the only game in town while Europe and Japan were in ruins.
The biggest factor that prevented the second recession is the post war rebuilding effort. Pearl Harbor totally levelled, carriers, ships, fighter planes, ammo needed replacement. Above all, Europe was in total ruins and the Marshal Plan was developed to rebuild Europe which US is the only industrial power left to undertake such massive job and which Europe has to repay enormous costs to US. Besides Europe has to pay the US for helping to win the war such as ships, aircrafts, ammo, human lives lost. It was reported that UK finally paid the last payment installments a few years ago! Therefore the US war strategy since WW2 has been to fight wars overseas and never in the US, hence the Monroe Doctrine.
It's here. We are in a deflationary recession. Unemployment will skyrocket soon. There are no good jobs. Gov will start printing like crazy again in a year or two. Welcome to the end.
@@FeelingPeculiaryeah prices haven’t gone down. China hit deflation but Americans spend way too much still thanks to bnpl to be in deflation. I wish it was deflation
Do you think the economy could see another Depression like in the 1930s? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! Sign up for an IRA with iTrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David FOLLOW GEORGE SELGIN: Twitter (@GeorgeSelgin): x.com/GeorgeSelgin The Menace of Fiscal QE: www.amazon.ca/Menace-Fiscal-QE-George-Selgin/dp/1948647931
Maybe...but it wasn't just private investment after WWII, we did conduct Marshall plan, we did push arms race....and then Ike's interstate highway plan....etc
Only if we stop using fossil fuel . The green agenda will bankrupt the world. For example, stop moving goods and people use oil based fuel. See how that works out. I believe that the Western world was OK while they had control of fuel from the developing countries, enter the solar/ wind energy. And something that will cost more than people to run production will be Ai driven production of goods.
Once governments resort to the printing press they don't stop until the currency is destroyed. Print and spend is just too easy. There will never be a decline in spending. Up, Up and away.
Small business' has been butchered, with many middle to large cap business' have been upset, but we are living in a dual economy, with mega cap businesses holding the economy up, while the balance are in a recession/depression that may bring back stagflation as Dimon suggests; Wallstreet is doing well enough, while Mainstreet suffers.
basically its like any other third world county ... the have and the have not , big business and no more mom and pop stores the economy is divided first by the paycheck to paycheck people , and the people who live below their means spending habits cash or credit on the low end . the upper end people spend the same , but when they cut back its 100x more then the low end banks cause ALL depressions, and economic booms by credit .... from the 1930 to today the economy is almost the exact ratio as potato chips , price and size
We took on the western world's gold (custodian) and handed them US debt notes. Breton Woods 1944 What do we have now to offer allied nations as a means of establishing some financial stabilization?
And, the reason we got into it was excessive government control. It was really post-WWII that helped us get out, not so much because war is good for business. War is horrible for business. Everything was rationed. The reason we got out was because no other country was left standing. So, it really wasn't the war it was the Pacific and Atlantic ocean that helped our country escape attack. Hawaii wasn't a state at the time since I know someone will say, "what about Pearl Harbor?"
Great interview. I usually find university professors to be uninformed and hopelessly biased politically. This guy and professor Hancke are two exceptions - informed, well grounded, straight shooters. Keep at it David!
I wish he would have given more specifics. He spoke in a lot of generalities. I'm guessing his book has the details, but I don't even want to get it now because he didn't give us the data and I'm afraid his book will be like that too.
Mr. Selgin doesn't discuss the problem of the collapse in the value of commercial real estate and the threat it poses to banks that have large loan portfolios to commercial real estate owners, Many other economists thinks this overexposure of banks to bankrupcies and/or defaults by commercial real estate owners threatens the stability of the U.S. banking system.
Very thorough and thoughtful guest. Very good. Well reasoned with full analysis of all historic factors at the time. And a good comparison and contrast to current conditions.
Mr. Lin please allow an old Grunt to thank-you for your integrity in this and all subjects you address here on your channel. I know I can count on your choice of words to be revealing and enlightening. I’m not an industry professional but it’s a hobby for me because I like feeling the peace of mind from having some actual idea about what happens largely in an opaque fashion in the world of finance. Sincerely and emphatically!
We're in a massive bubble. When Great depression hits, it'll be max pain unlike weve seen in many many decades. People are too reliant on tech. Good luck out there. You'll need it. Black swan event isnt too far away
Let’s not forget that that war took over 400,000 lives and wounded it an additional almost 700,000. That’s approximately 1.1 to 1,.2 million of the working age population. That’s when the population isn’t anywhere near what it is today and the working age population is a fraction of that.
Its always interesting to see how these guests tout private industry and always blame Govt but they REFUSE to go farther back in history to show how private industry ABUSE and GREED leads to the financial crashes we have experienced over the decades.
Many of these guests on these shows are just Reagan-loving propagandists. I’m a centrist, and I certainly look at taxes with askance such that allows the reality of 56 billion dollar pay contracts with little tax while 20 per cent of my $15/hr check is taken
Interesting interview. I think that post-WWII, the guest is neglecting to mention that the US was the only game in town. Europe and the far East were in shambles for decades and the US was untouched (not withstanding the attack Pearl Harbor). We were the widget maker for the world and prospered as a result.
The infrastructure built as part of the new deal is still the bedrock of our economy. Saying the new deal didn't matter is like trying real hard not to open your eyes
Most of the New Deal job programs that employed people were "busy work." Some of the infrastructure projects served as foundations for more comprehensive infrastructure projects during the fifties, sixties, and seventies, but most really didn't amount to much. The real foundations of the America that I grew up in during the sixties and seventies was based on work done in the forties and fifties. A lot of infrastructure was built in the forties to support the war effort. In the fifties it was driven by the movement of families from the cities and farms to the suburbs.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts George. I’m curious, you mentioned that bitcoin isn’t being used as money, because the number of transactions are so low, but would you agree that it is possibly being used precisely as money but that Greshams law maybe in effect? The “bad” fiat money is driving out the “good” bitcoin money?
Why wouldn't it be? Same exact thing happened last time.. free money for a decade at 0%, then demanding 5% suddenly. Those banks lent money at 4%... and the federal reserve know is. They lent the money for 30 years at 4%.. and have to pay 5% now, banks must refinance every 2 years. (system made to trap banks into fail)
My MIT educated grandfather studied architecture and build any number of custom homes and buildings in Connecticut, South Carolina, and Virginia. He ended up losing his beloved 50-acre polo pony and fox hunting estate. He was a man's man, an architect, a pilot who flew in the Army Air Corps. Losing his farm to foreclosure in 1934 broke him. He still served during WWII but died too young. I never heard the story about how he lost his farm to foreclosure because my father was born in 1933 and always played like he was still the rich boy. He wasn't. My grandfather kept a modest home in West Hartford but it was his beloved polo pony estate that made him happy.
I love animals but try to stay away from the "ponys" . They get people in trouble. Famous people always seem to be falling of them (Christopher Reeve , Bonnie Blue -Rhett And Scarletts daughter and many others) And millions of families hard earned money is lost each year betting on the pony's. 😽
David what on earth have you been posting consecutively post after post after post. I mean man doom, gloom, zoom and boom. It’s amazing culturally how many nihilists there are in the U.S. Wth is going on let’s talk about life friend
“Moderates” lead us to 4th turnings. Leaders get us out of them. Leaders come in different flavors, but Americans, thankfully, overwhelmingly favor principled leaders as existed in our founding. I for one thank God we don’t rely on analysts to lead…
I think your guest is very knowledgeable but I disagree with his assessment of what is to come regarding another Great Depression. I think with the tusnami debt and the complicated society and economy we have today makes us more vulnerable not more stable.
The top corporations have identified AI’s potential and have begun the transition in trying to incorporate its infrastructure within their businesses. Technological Displacement and the Social Crisis that stems from it. Definitely learned that from this channel.
hoarding of money is the opposite of printing money.. so hoarding money is good because it deflates capital and consumer cost. George talks about spending and consumerism that’s not how. economy works. It works on capital and a free market. J B Say is known for saying that you cannot spend on something that’s not already produced. A true free market works using sound money instead of money, counterfeit by the federal reserve. Sound money is some thing that grows organically in a free market.
Honest question, if world population decreases how that creates a shortage of labor? I understand less workers, also less people less demand for goods and services?
Thanks David, we’ve been talking about this depression for a long time now and yet nothing happens? It looks more like a soft landing than an economic catastrophe. There’s simply too much cash sloshing around in the economy..
“The Depression You’ve Never Heard Of: 1920-1921” Look it up and learn how to deal with an economic depression. And no, Wars don’t fix them, that’s the “Broken Window fallacy”, on steroids.
Yeah... we may be favoring the Landlords of yesteryear too much here? Since I bought my house in 2009, right after the big crisis. I rode the 0% interest rate now for 15 years. Now I know my house has doubled in value since I bought it. But since I have tenants, all I have to do is have a sit down. Look, the Fed increased rates, so if you want to continue and maintain this lifestyle, you'll have to finance it. Whether it or not my tenants can finance this David? It's up to them, it's not up to me anymore. i have faith in them though, but they'll be grumbling every step of the way believe me. But I'm the 42 year old retiree that everyone seems to want to be right? The 2009 Landlord wins in this scenario. I don't even have to sell the house.
The lesson the US govt learnt from 2008 is not to let big companies collapse and not to let the stock market dive. So expect backdoor bailouts and high stock markets even as the economy crumbles.
I'm just an "old fellow" but after the war the US was the only country left with any manufacturing factories so it supplied the rest of the world with durable goods, electronics, etc. Many of those factory jobs,(nearly 60%), were under union collective bargaining agreements with good wages, benefits and pension plans that allowed even blue collar people to move into the middle class. A lot of veterans went to college on the GI bill and got well paying jobs as engineers, designers and even management positions. Corporations decided that it was more cost effective to send the manufacturing overseas and Reagan helped them start that, Bush Sr. got NAFTA ratified and Clinton signed it after organized labor put him in office which was the final nail in the coffin for manufacturing in the US. Independent voters have no parties left that give them any hope for relief from the extremes on both sides.
I am from S.E. Asia. First of all I totally agree with you that US prospered as the factory of the world post WW2. Regarding the relocation of US manufacturing overseas, I am a beneficiary as I worked in an American semi conductor factory for 10 years. Since the 1960s Japanese factories started in S.E. Asia as export substitution program. In the early 1970s US started with relocation of mainly electronics manufacturers. The main reason is to check Communism from rolling over the rest of SE Asia, spreading from Vietnam and Cambodia by developing and enriching the economies to strengthen democracy and capitalism against Communist socialism. Through time due to the cost effectiveness of low costs, incentives like tax holidays and good profits, more American companies moved over and later to Korea, Taiwan and China for the same reasons. So it was a win win solution then. No one is the victim. The US was making a lot of money then through exports to the world market until China caught up now.
Deficit spending does in fact help an economy get out of recession/depression UNTIL debt/GDP exceeds 120%. After that, a country's borrowing authority should be considered as used up because any additional debt gives a diminishing return and destabilizes the financial system. We are past that point now!!
wrong again. Deficit spending plunges the economy into recession/depression due in large part from govt intervention and onerous regulation/taxes that prohibit the private sector to operate efficiently.
The professor made a very important point about Kaitlyn Long ,Custodia Bank being able to custody and Finance with BTC and fiat exchange.. It is unconstitutional that Custodia Bank got denied… I believe once this gets reversed. It is full steam ahead.!
Labor force participation is “healthy”? Tell that to the tens of millions of us who are working only part time, often multiple jobs, and even if employed full-time, require an additional part-time job just to make ends meet. This of course does not include those who have run out of eligibility for unemployment benefits, nor the millions who have simply given up looking for work altogether, to say nothing all of those who are under employed, but for a variety of reasons are not in a position to get a second job at this time. No thinking person with both feet on the ground, who lives in the real world and works fora living, calls this “healthy“
Excellent interview. I have an old cassette tape in my archives of Father Charles Coughlin in the 1930s and the title is "Relief That Fails To Relieve" where he's criticizing the New Deal. The presentation on the other side of the tape he talks about entry into WW1 and predicts WW2. As far as presenting information this guy would take any social media commentator by the scruff of their neck and spank them like a puppy dog.
Everyone should read The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal by Robert P. Murphy. We exited the Great Depression despite government intervention and WW2
Tell me someone from Cato Institute is going to talk about the New Deal, and I can tell you exactly what he's gonna say, no need to hear this guy talk. He's gonna say it didn't take us out of New Deal, and if it seemed so it was for all the wrong reasons lmao. I don't have any respect for people who have already decided what they think about stuff based on their ideology. Now you will say you've already decided what this guy says, so that applies to you; well that's the exception, it can work first degree, but not second degree; just like being tolerant of others, unless that other himself is intolerant.
Check out Art Laffer vs Peter Schiff in 2007. The guy claimed the economy was great in 2007.... just before a massive crash in 2008. These guys keep re-emerging regardless of how terrible their record have been.
How anyone platforms Laffer like some genius is hilarious. Even his curve is the most obvious thing ever. You're telling me there's an ideal level of taxes and for optimal growth?!? No way!! It was just a giant psyop to lower taxes commiserate with Reagans spending spree
@@mtrest4 You're never wrong about anything? Also, I think Laffer is the kind of person who learns from mistakes like that because he seems to be aware of the current trajectory we're in today. Anyway, I also enjoy listening to Schiff. I just think it's important to listen to a bunch of perspectives so we can get a larger data set. And Laffer has specifically studied The Great Depression and written about it in his book.
I trust this book is essential to financial management. Learning from the past to direct the present to have a future. But this vague speak doesn't sell material. Ray Dalio did a video, interviews explaning his research in fetaily along with the selling of his book. Ive read the book took notes as i watched the video and then followed up with the interviews adding more notes. EB Tucker Why Gold Why Know (Same thing) Jim Rickards Sold Out Dr Thomas Sowell Wealth Poverty and Politics Robert Kiyosaki Capitalist Manifesto All gave details that favored demand for their literature.
Unemployment did not go up after WWII when the soldiers returned home. Wonder why? How many of those soldiers never returned home to get a job because they died??!! And the women abandoned their wartime needed roles to return to the home for a more important role of being a mother and depopulation the country. With advancing technology, increasing demographics, fewer working age men, there was a need for more productivity.
This guy is in an alternative universe. The infrastructure projects alone are proof of FDR’s spending. Usual academic stating a theory and ignoring verifiable facts.
The fed will choose inflation but it will be closer to triple digit than double digit considering foreign appetite for us treasuries will now fall off a cliff after the ending of the petrodollar
