Is Jerome Powell Bluffing? | My Take on the FOMC Rate Hike

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6 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 259

@InTheMoneyAdam Год назад

💎Sign up for TradingView, the best charting platform out there! www.tradingview.com/u/InTheMoneyAdam/?aff_id=114660&aff_sub=RU-vid Summary of Economic Projections: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf Powell hates Christmas and is personally responsible for me only getting socks this year at best. Rally dead, idea dead. Bluff or not, the market believes Powell and Santa Claus got 360 no-scoped by the FOMC.

@guitarislife01 Год назад

Wow! Congrats on the sponsorship. That's a good one.

@Zhaopow3 Год назад

Lol from found trading view to sponser in 2 days

@fishphage2762 Год назад

@@Zhaopow3 give the man, a break.

@dickwhippin Год назад

Great video but you need to trim your fingernails brother.

@benjigonzalez5350 Год назад

Adam, so good to see you doing regular content again. Some of the other shills on YT would steal your ideas and repackage them as their own then try to charge people for courses. I’m sorry about your illness and I’m glad to see your spirits and wit have returned

@nickfisk9808 Год назад

I like the shorter form, market awareness type videos like this. This is a good channel.

@LordLotman Год назад

I’m happy with all of the above but I agree unfortunately most wallstreet bets bros/faggel finance fuckboys can’t handle sophisticated longer form 10+ mins vids which results in less views and less money for my ninja In da Money!

@ntbohl Год назад

I love Adam, I love Eric, I love this outro music (I MISSED IT SO MUCH). We're with both of you, please keep us updated!! I hope re-uploadong is giving you some sense of normalcy, and it something that brings you comfort. I sincerely hope that these uploads are a sign of good things happening and good things to come. You both rock!

@ranranpoopants Год назад

Cringe

@cambo1972 Год назад

What's the name of the outro? I find myself humming it throughout the day.

@johnnycochicken Год назад

@@cambo1972 the track is Urban Lullaby - Jimmy Fontanez / Doug Maxwell

@cambo1972 Год назад

@@johnnycochicken thanks king 👑

@guinea_horn Год назад

You're looking really good for someone who's gone through what you've been through. Hope you're doing well

@gr8expectations260 Год назад

Stay strong Adam. I always enjoy your videos and style of speaking. You make things that could be complicated quite simple.

@JojoRabbit0861 Год назад

I don’t think it’s a bluff. I think the Feds value betting here and can’t afford a market rally. Too much cash are still on the side line, todays market response was exactly what the fed was hoping to achieve.

@JojoRabbit0861 Год назад

Glad you’re feeling better, hope all is well.

@rnegoro1 Год назад

I agree they cant afford another market rally - after all stock market is a class of asset.

@utpharmboy2006 Год назад

you are right they can't afford a market rally....that's why its a bluff

@ranranpoopants Год назад

Nah you’re wrong about that. Did you just guess?

@npz1838 Год назад

Same here. I love getting everyone's different takes and perspectives, but man it's amazing how ppl can see the same thing so differently. I didn't see any dovish language or bluff at all. To me, the market has consistently called J Pows bluff on everything, and each time J Pow is holding a full house. I don't know how clear he can make it: they are going to raise rates higher than ppl think and keep them there longer than ppl think. Until the market truly understands that, every rally will be sold off. Just my 2 cents.

@Lcincinelli Год назад

Missed you bro! Glad you're doing better now and making videos again! Thank you for all you do

@jacksonic00 Год назад

Later Powell said that he didn't see interest rates actually lowering for any part of 2023'. I would look for 1 50 point hike then 2 more 25 point hikes and then a long "no hike" glide into 2024. My opinion, he's trying to hedge against the global recession and keep the US dollar strong in relationship to other currencies. This new baseline (US dollar value) will force significant corporate overseas capital stock piles to get deployed (at the higher baseline -> the "soft landing"). This global drain pipe is required to create longer term stability. capital returning to US functions like a stock buy back but for the US treasury.

@matthewjohnston1017 Год назад

Crazy to think that the “tone” of how one person talks for a few minutes can sway millions/billions/ trillions of dollars

@beau6113 Год назад

It's not a bluff. The terminal rate went higher. He keeps saying "higher for longer" and he means it. The majority of the committee is on board. They WILL over-tighten, just like they missed inflation to begin with, because they move slowly.

@luckyc3926 Год назад

No one under 50 understands stagflation. Give them a decade.

@anaestereo810 Год назад

..and Powell is not up for relection, so he can go Volcker syndrome

@Arcadianx98 Год назад

It’s a bluff. Look at his past behavior. Always flip flopping. Next meeting will be something else.

@wesawbjj Год назад

I have to agree with you. A bluff would've been no rate hike after threatening a rate hike. None of what this guy said here makes any sense. He's done exactly what he's said so far...no reason to doubt him now.

@wuhgees Год назад

@Socrates 98 his past behavior didn't have the pressure of inflation. Now he's backed into the corner. He has no other choices. Inflation is sticky.

@jwass321 Год назад

My portfolio is already down 80% this year so I don’t really give a shit anymore burn the whole market down

@sneakytacos773 Год назад

Powell never fails to confuse me. You broke it down so well, appreciate it always!

@jimmyyu2184 Год назад

So glad you are putting out videos (especially the last few days), hope you and your bro are getting better/healthier. Peace. Out. 🖖👍

@The_Angry_Irishman Год назад

Glad my boys back. Keep the vids coming!

@lindseycoggin5926 Год назад

Thanks for this video! I hope you are getting better!

@broky1988 Год назад

What a data dump for the week of finance. Speak your mind bro! Enjoyed hearing a well articulated perspective regarding the chaos. Hope all is well and thank you from the bottom of my heart.

@curtisrader957 Год назад

agreed he can not signal its working they need to be stirn until inflation is below rates. 1 more .50% and two .25% hikes, by then if inflation stays on its trend it will be below 5.5% within 4 months rates will be 5.5 and paused there. then he will bring rates down at the same rate of inflation in my opinion.

@adamclapp888 Год назад

Adam, as another Adam. Thanks for doing this. Your a diamond in the rough in the RU-vid fiance stuff

@bamawebdev8640 Год назад

1dte calls were a great idea today. I had such a good time.

@myperspectiva Год назад

Amazing to see you back at your best keep it up we love you

@croonefamilyoutdoors3170 Год назад

I wanted to comment my gratitude. I have been following you for some time and it's your no bull shit down to earth attitude that's kept me coming back. There isn't much I can do in return for the knowledge I've attained from you. Here is a few things I would love to see you make videos on and dm me if you need anything. 1. Trading on Gap fills. How. What platform to find them. Best ways to do it. 2. Market open or close live streams? 3. Finding the best stocks to go long on with leaps during a long bear market. Seems like so many deals right now. Thanks brother

@TurkNukemHD Год назад

In poker terms "he wasnt bluffing" at all... He went all in and show his hand by extending the rate hike time frame along with rate hike itself. 17 of the members expects over %5, 7 out of 17 expecting %5.4 Jerome is a really really nice guy, as soon as he is out of reading the paper he becomes calmer.

@emptynukacolabottle5822 Год назад

Oh yes, the central bankers stealing from you are all just such nice people!

@TurkNukemHD Год назад

@@emptynukacolabottle5822 chill cowboy...

@hecklerkoch2446 Год назад

I trade options on TQQQ exclusively.....this volatility is awesome. You're the man bro, I hope everything is getting better!

@albertmichail1449 Год назад

Much love bro! Thanks for the uploads!!! Appreciate you sharing knowledge.

@shc002 Год назад

At the end of the day, they need to wait to see how the new data comes out before they act. All these projections are merely hypothetical. P.S. hope u keep doing these types of videos Adam, interesting getting ur pov. Keep feeling better!

@ComradeAmir Год назад

He also said in the Q&A that there are no expectations of interest cuts in all of 2023. I don’t personally see the market rallying until we have soft language at multiple FOMC meetings next year. Keeping at it is the tactic. Cpi every month will boost the market temporarily but as companies report lower than expected earnings next year we will see an overall sell off of the market

@mandarci89 Год назад

Glad to have you back posting regularly!!

@luckylanno Год назад

Thanks for the breakdown. I was a little befuddled by what the market has been up to the last couple days

@Its_Onion Год назад

THANK YOU!!! you're the best adam, thank you for summarizing and congrats on the trading view sponsor, i've been using them for years and its been a great tool. wishing the best and looking forward to the next one!

@dacjames Год назад

I don’t think it’s a bluff. I think the stern opening is a signal that just because CPI looks better doesn’t mean rate hikes are done. The fed wants inflation to actually come down to the target rate, not just be headed in the right direction. I think the stern language is intended to counter the market‘a natural tendency to get ahead of itself. Combined with the softer statements, I expect that we’re close to peak rates but nowhere near heading in the other direction. Once rates peak, I expect them to stay flat for an extended period until we see movement in employment.

@Yayo561 Год назад

your previous videos on how to use platforms has help a lot, thank you for those. if you ever get a chance share how you use tradingview and your set up.

@engne1980 Год назад

You are right man, he tries to stop market melting up because that would make his job even more difficult. He has to be careful what/how he says. Too positive and boom, market is up 10% in no time and that´s not what the FED wants.

@Veteran_Nerd Год назад

Smartest stock market channel on yt - hands down! Glad you're feeling better, stay safe!

@hansbez186 Год назад

Thank you for another very insightful video and summary on Papa Powells talk. Love you too man, I smile every time I see a new vid post!

@suncasa2224 Год назад

Thanks, great insight. I love TV as well and had no idea you could see the economic data on it!

@terabyte7683 Год назад

Markets were kinda boring today, I was hoping the dip would keep dipping but none of the stocks I've been watching were really worth buying even at today's bottom, I guess there's always the post-pivot drop to look forward to

@bluesky5587 Год назад

Do not time the market …never works

@auntypc4791 Год назад

Adam, I've been waiting on this video all day wondering what you were gonna say about the meeting. You never fail to deliver. I thought of you as soon as I heard him say what the new terminal rate was going to be. I said, "Crap, there goes our Santa rally." Here's hoping the market gives JPow a few coals in his stocking. ;)

@GoooObama08 Год назад

You nailed it, excellent analysis 🎯

@NitroReviewsMN Год назад

Love you as well in very special and unique way!❤

@eddieslittlestack7919 Год назад

Glad you’re uploading man! Glad you got sponsored too!

@flippatheshippa Год назад

I like the extra 50bp let’s just keep hammering into this inflation. Also I don’t really try to overthink these fed events to me they are just trading opportunities. I did a long straddle on CPI and another long straddle on the FOMC so I’m very happy with their results.

@jodolski Год назад

I think you lost money there given IV collapse (unless you mean you bought after the data release?).

@DoctorDoom69 Год назад

I think it’s game theory like a non credible threats approach

@garret2042 Год назад

Dude, Im so glad youre back to making videos. Sounds like you are still struggling, but maybe have your symptoms in control at times. As usual I hope it get better soon. But, I love the videos! Keep up the good work!

@scottnaples4793 Год назад

Adam, I've been using (and paying for) Tradingview for a couple of years now. Love it, but I didn't know you can setup a "Economic Calendar" bar like you did! Any chance you can let me know how you set that up? Keep up the great content and I hope you and your bro are feeling better.

@robby95036 Год назад

I love how they never say "due to us keeping rates artificially low", they always leave out who did that. They just focus on what is happening now. /s

@fanoir9030 Год назад

Love you back bb Also what keyboard do you use. Love the pudding keycaps

@josht637 Год назад

Damn you make good videos Adam, thank you! This is the kind of content people want from financial RU-vidrs 👍

@jameshoneycutt785 Год назад

I'm glad you are putting out videos regularly again bro, your takes and videos are facts and very real. Not that Jeremy Financial Education type of sh*t

@CusomPCs Год назад

Watching now but I already know it's gonna be a banger cuz you made it

@jesusgarza836 Год назад

Congrats on the tradingview affiliate

@bobbyleeacn Год назад

Missed ya man. Exactly what we need

@dtizzy720 Год назад

Yo it's my guy. How's it going . 2023 we're gonna kick azz my guy. Stay blessed.

@TheAustrian101 Год назад

If anything, we at least know that there'd be light at the end of this tunnel that the inlfation is slowing.

@justgivenofox9543 Год назад

I love you too Adam. Stay safe man glad you’re coming back

@wrek1ent Год назад

Glad to see that you're doing better sir 🙏🙏🙏👍👍👍🚀🚀🚀🚀

@zactranten3235 Год назад

Appreciate your videos on the macro. Thanks for all you do.

@churlish7851 Год назад

It's nuts how the marker is hanging on his every word. At some point the market is gonna to disagree with him.

@augustoliver2779 Год назад

Glad to see you back

@silkysixx Год назад

This is a really cool channel btw, way more chill and evidence-based than a lot of the self-titled gurus. I like what you do here. I think the rally is a lock, but I'm growing increasingly sure that it'll be the last one (though I've definitely said that and been wrong before). Inflation MAY be coming down for bad reasons, like a recession kicking off that some people aren't seeing. Every rally since "we're not TECHNICALLY in a recession" has been a pump but I think they are running out of breath. Look around. Go to a poorer end of town than yours. People are hurting.

@smohan123 Год назад

Bro this video is so spot on. Frickin calling Powell's every indication to a T. Such good analysis. Also tradingview looks lit. Benjamin and you my favorite finance RU-vidrs

@llcoolmartine Год назад

It's beginning be silly if the market reacts to any little nuance of comment Powell gives. The policy is very clear and they are sticking to their plan. Exactly what a market wants, less uncertainty.

@bananadude9642 Год назад

What BS….. then why are they still printing fiat???

@vidsforhosers Год назад

Dot plot still shows over 5% through 2023 and over 4% for 2024. I fear policymakers will continue to fight the fed, and there will be sustained longer term inflationary pressures, which could result in an even higher ceiling. I think the market is pricing in a quick over tighten and break that will force lower rates sooner. My question is, if inflation is here to stay, how do we price an equities floor adjusted for said inflation.

@elitecpudoc329 Год назад

In the money coming in hot with the new vids, loving all of it. Keep them coming. I would be curious to here you views on the latest crackdown on influencers within the market and the pump and dump. I would also be curious to hear your thoughts on how that is different than some of the plays that Elon took.

@Hillbilly80808 Год назад

We love you too man. Don’t ever change. Hope you’re feeling better.

@medadme1 Год назад

Great insight 👍. Glad to see you're felling better, I hope.

@xenialiuart Год назад

Love you too. ❤❤ Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

@elijahheaven1737 Год назад

Great read on Powell's suttle language and I think it is safe to say that we will see a rally into eoy because executive bonuses are due and gotta make numbers high.

@deliveredbyjace5977 Год назад

So good to see you do what you do best! I know you and Eric are still battling health issues yet you manage to produce great content unparalleled to other so-called financial/option trading RU-vidrs.

@FuttBukkr Год назад

I continue to be bearish AF

@InconspicuousOwl Год назад

"Strangle inflation til it's eyes pop out." Quote of the year 2022

@straightshootskeet Год назад

I agree on a long term bluff attempting to keep the tone where it needs to be. When have we seen such powerful agreement among members? They all sat in that meeting and said "we have no choice but to sing in harmony we finally are achieving the objectives we have been striving for". Buy the dip and let it run.

@HustleManForever Год назад

Thanks Adam! Great stuff!

@prydegirl Год назад

Love and respect.

@Merlin-wo1kj Год назад

He exposed his hand months back.. Jerome mentioned that the "language" was just as important as the policy... If by simple words he can "tame" the markets, he will continue the "language"....

@alexanderharrison5144 Год назад

Fed got an obligation to insiders not the people

@Jake-sg1xr Год назад

Hey InTheMoney, you should make a tutorial on how to use or how YOU use TradingView, its an awesome tool with a metric f*** ton of features so it can be overwhelming for our noobish eyes

@filmcrew5848 Год назад

Thanks for sharing your insight bro.

@Xeirus911 Год назад

Love this channel, best one out there

@quicksilver0311 Год назад

I’m watching on my TV! Wtf Adam! Where my love? 😅

@Tobacc0 Год назад

Jawboning is the most powerful tool of the Fed.

@cameronvincent Год назад

Got a 400$ spy put exp in Jan 27th

@apahuja Год назад

Great commentary, thanks.

@shirtdirt1874 Год назад

wtf with that end bro? gonna give me a reach around while you're at it?

@asdfdfggfd Год назад

Government spending is still out of control. The FED has to increase rates until the government curtails spending. That isn't going to change for at least 2 more years. We are going into a period where prime will be 10-11% over the next two years, and nothing is going to change that. Growth stocks will continue to falter, value stocks and money markets will continue to be where the growth is.

@AgentOrange90 Год назад

Love you Adam. Hope you are getting better

@Merlin-wo1kj Год назад

We will end up settling for 3% as the new benchmark...

@Wowsers101 Год назад

Don't stop uploading videos bro

@medhaneiabraha501 Год назад

Adam, are you feeling better? Glad you’re back

@CasualViewer-t4f Год назад

I feel like the Fed has been following their playbook that was shared in September. He also has been playing the market like a fiddle with hawkish statements to curb preliminary rallies.