Let's talk about the prospects of the NIO Sub brand called ONVO and what my expectations for it are regarding the stock price, in context to other potential catalysts. #NIO #ONVO #Tesla
You don’t see the big picture. With the launch of ONVO, NIO is putting pressure on swap partners to develop and launch battery swap cars at a much faster pace or ONVO (and Firefly) will completely dominate the mid and entrysegment. Why buy a car without battery swap when there is an avalible and affordable option that can swap.
I get this idea but it still requires time and resources to make it a success. My expectations for ONVO are low. I rather see the partnership dynamics that I described in my video yesterday as bullish .. and they don't necessarily require a successful sub brand. IF it will be a success .. even better. But based on what I know today, I am not having my hopes up high that it will be the case.
No one knows how well Onvo is going to sell or how the NIO stock will perform. But one thing is certain: there will be a lot of interest, including from the taxi segment, just because of the battery swapping. As rightly pointed out, who wants to buy a car without battery swapping when others are offering battery swap with a discounted price?
Absolutely correct. Most people buying an EV have no idea what they are buying until it's to late. As years go by and the old EVs need a new battery, that's when people will start to know about NIO and the battery swap. The companies who don't start offering swapping will all fail and very quickly when that time comes.
@@relax-ie3mp We agree! No Brainer for the consumer and the business model, Nio will be much more than a car manufacturer, standardising and franchising will be where the colossal earnings are.
I agree that the NIO brand is more premium for the wealthier customers. But its absolutely necessary that if NIO want to have a mass customer market, they need the ONVO brand
Onvo L60 is in the Tesla Model Y segment. For Tesla, this is where they achieved their big sales figures. Imagine if Tesla no longer had a Model Y. It is their best selling car. So yes, it is certainly a positive step for NIO to be present in this segment with Onvo. And it makes sense that they compete directly with the Model Y. A 2nd model is already in the making. I would certainly not underestimate the arrival of Onvo.
This very much comes across as you being upset about not being invited to the event today and, as a result, giving a pessimistic outlook on Onvo. If you had been invited, you would not have given the same bearish forecast of the new sub-brand, regardless of what you saw at the factory. The only thing I hear in this video is your opinion i.e. I don't think the Onvo will do well, I don't like the styling etc. Opinions can change like the weather and opinions can be easily influenced. The impression you're giving is that your opinion would have been the exact opposite if you had been invited to go to the 500,000th car celebration at the factory.
Interesting perspective on ONVO when many are pumping it. Partnerships are in themselves a great catalyst and if ONVO does work out, another great plus for NIO.
lol, my picture went all the way to your thumbnail, what an achievement. On a serious note, we all would expect that ONVO will sale well, but from my perspective, I'd be happy if the sub brand sales 10K to 20K. Plus NIO sales reaching 30K montly, we are ok and in a good track to profitability
@@MathewVarkey-lp6gp Not in China, EV taxi with swappable battery are widely available in China and these cars are much cheaper than Novo. Actually, many of the NIO's new partners already have their own cars with swappable battery (through cooperation with another company, Aulton) these cars are sold to fleets and solely used for commercial purpose. Aulton start building battery swap station before NIO but now it falls behind (Aulton aimed to set up 10K stations by 2025 but it only has 800 stations today) I speculate that NIO's next sub-brand Firefly will have interchangeable battery with these partners and is cheap enough to be used as taxi in China.
All nio investors need to embrace critical view points. This is excellent. We all need to hear from all sides to be as intellectually honest as one can be.
I’m expecting 30,000 ONVO sales for the last three months of the year. As long as Nio does a good job marketing that the ONVO line is part of Nio it should sell very well. Keep in mind ONVO line is priced in the part of the Automotive market that is about 90% of the car market where as Nio has access to only the top 10% of the car market. I’m expecting over 100,000 ONVO sales in 2025 and I’m looking forward to the even cheaper firefly. I agree the other brands will help massively I’m just waiting for the first partner to launch. I think you could be right and the margins will definitely be impacted much more with this model.
Thanks for your video and opinion Marcel! I like Onvo and I think it sells! 24k with BAAS is no brainer. The black Onvo is 👌 and perfect for city life! As you know I'm Nio long and in my opinion BAAS will produce more revenue than sales by 2030! So!!!! To the future my friend whatever it entails! 💪💪💪
I have 9420 shares averaged down to 6.48...Nio has to start buying back shares ASAP and no more dilutions. 11 billion market cap and 2 billion outstanding shares equals about $5.50 a share. Buy back has to happen or we are in bigger trouble than we are now. Can't even imagine the investors at $60. TIME FOR NIO TO TAKE CARE OF THEIR INVESTORS !!!!
ONVO would be great for robotaxis, car rental companies, commuters, and governmental workers (law enforcement agencies). I see potential in mass production vehicles that are affordable with multiple options for fast and "autonomous" charging. Sending out a fleet of vehicles to be charged/changed in the middle of the night/late night and have them ready to go for the next morning.
I’m on the same page as you Marcel. I believe it is going to be extremely difficult to compete in subbrand category with established and powerful brands such as BYD. But NIO will continue its leadership in premium brand and BaaS. Cheers!
ET5 was forcasted to sell 10 thousands monthly units by Nio and last year Nio said it would deliver 250K vehicles. Not only did this not happen it was not even close. This warrants being cautious with Nio.
In short, Nio's problem is that it has always launched a valid product but does not have the manufacturing capacity, which means that the valuable parts of its products are sold and delivered to customers with the goods in good condition
But the brand is not really a new and unknown brand, just as the Su7 is not an unknown brand. There is already huge interest in China in ONVO. We know that the cost of production is ten percent cheaper than the Tesla Model Y, along with Battery Swap, larger than the Tesla Model Y It will be a huge success.
What I dont get is that you weren't very specific on why you're not bullish on ONVO, except that you didn't like the model too much. ONVO will be in great demand due to the swap tech, so Im surprised you can't see that important point. So, if NIO has grabbed the #1 position of models over 300RMB, why wouldn't they be able to grab it for models over 180RMB, with BaaS?
Similar to what happened to Tesla and Lucid, I don’t think that NIO can grow in car sales without Onvo. NIO advantage with battery swap is another thing but cheaper cars to increase sales is necessary.
it's perfectly normal to be sceptical on Onvo. But this has been than all along and now we execute. If Onvo succeeds there will be tremendous brand loyalty built that leads to people buying their 2nd Nio in 4 years and then the phone. Lets not forget the swaps and grid contributions. Snowball effect here. Then you get to make a video changing your mind. All good.
I appreciate your forthrightness with your views on NIO's business outlook, whether positive, neutral or otherwise. As investors, it shouldn't be about pumping the stock to try to get some gains. Investors, especially the big movers are too savvy to react to pumpers and unceasing positivity. What we want is some objectivity in assessing the plans and direction of the company. I think NIO has some challenges in its market positioning, not because it is ill-conceived or poorly executed. But building a luxury segment is a lot more challenging than offering low-cost city-runabouts. Cost is possibly the 1st order of consideration for buyers, and there's a large market of drivers who'd want to spend less than go for a premium brand. Also, competing against Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and VW EVs is a sizeable challenge given brand recognition of the European marques. I think NIO is a more innovative company, and a bolder one, than many other Chinese EV makers. Expanding into the European market and gaining traction there will have positive effects in domestic sales as well. If NIO can get traction in Europe, and on a consistent basis, I can see volumes pickup aborad and in China. Getting demand and brand recognition is key, along with bringing down costs to improve margins. I hope NIO makes significant progress on these fronts in 2024.
I believe if we were in a normal to good economy environment, I would have agreed the sale of Nio main brand would be much better as the premium & quality level become nice to have, but in this environment & with this price war, I think Onvo is a good move as now mid-income class also consider to buy an electric car. In the end, what truly makes me bullish is the way they handle the costs to go toward profitability. Regarding the partnerships of Nio, I completely agree with you they are huge milestones. Huge players are partnering with Nio
I think if Nio breaks even, that will be sufficient until partners start to make swappable cars. Once that revenue roll in, game over. Nio will raise prices because they don’t need to sell volume. Their revenue will be from power exchange.
Just sold my 10K shares, I'll buy back under $3, Nio has been the worst investment of my lifetime, regretted every minute, USA won't let go of China hatred. GL Marcel.
Imho Nio needs the subbrands to get volume and climb up the learning curve, improving their operating efficiency. With the Nio brand alone it would be difficult to achieve this and Nio would remain too expensive in comparison to the competition.
I’m sure Onvo will do fine. Overall , I discount the Onvo deliveries to 0 in my own fundamental analysis. And it’s simply because it’s wholly unknown how it may perform. So any deliveries just make the buy case stronger. That said, it’s still a low risk play for NIO to launch the subs. If the brand does struggle to break out, it’s easy enough to roll back into NIO in some form.
I still hope ONVO and even Firefly can merge into just one brand, service can be separated for those low price car between original NIO, i.e. extra fees, it’s still too early to introduce sub brand, especially main company still burning cash. Or maybe ONVO and Firefly are corporations with other car companies? I have no idea.
I think we need to evaluate the results of the impact on SP after OnVo is released.....like you, we have become a little doubtful of NIO ability to beat the likes of BYD.....and now Xiaomi is definitely going to take market shares away from NIO because it's already a tech giant. NIO's marketing strategy seems to be giving discounts, offering tradeins and free battery swaps. NIO seem to be struggling to establish itself as a luxury brand, because the giant like Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc are competing even harder. My advice is to hold NIO and proceed with caution....do your diligence.....I am keeping an eye on the Xiaomi stock and cars.....not advice, just wondering.
Do you stay bullish on swap business model even after latest CATL announcments on Shenxing and condensed battery? Semms CATL progress is quite fast. They plan to built super fast charging infrastructure as well. Not sure if the swapping remain sustainable business if the CATL keep this pace in development..
Swapping will always be in the spotlight. No matter how fast you charge you are stuck with a fixed battery unless you can swap. Buy a car with latest battery tech and a week later new tech comes out. Without battery swap you are stuck with what you bought. Get it yet?
get it. On the other hand, once there is cheap battery with great longevity, super fast charge and high capacity (coming soon) and also wireless charging implemented (also on the way). Then it might be expensive to operate swap stations. This is my concern.
Me either I’m not very convinced by the design. I think in general the nio design is too conservative and boring . The high end model ET9 is an example for that. I think the ex jaguar guy is not the right person.
I'm bullish on Onvo.. it just makes a lot of sense to buy the car rather than a car that doesn't swap.. it's affordable, energy efficient.. battery swappable. It will fill the gap in the mid segment .. we will see.
Ok ok. You are not very bullish because you didn’t get your free pass .. so they are hiding something 😂. $200k car with swap with target of 20k sell per month !? We agree to disagree on this.
@@DONGXiiTheChinaOpportunity i mostly agree with you, but "not exciting" is what they were aiming for, right? as a product. Practical, rational, utilitarian, affordable. Sure, there are many in this category. But you are right, at the very least, let's wait and see the actual product.
Everyone knows I am invested in NIO with my own money. That still makes me independent. I am not sponsored by NIO. When I drive their cars I pay for it (subscribing), or I get a press car. You obviously are just trolling and not following my content.
I agree with you that it may not be the biggest catalyst. I think the infrastructure and partnerships is huge. But just using common sense how can an affordable car with the battery swap option not make you extra bullish? Idk
True .. because: not enough people know about battery swapping in the first place, and because no one knows about ONVO either. So it will take time and resources to get the word out!
You should reach out to Mr.P ..maybe he could help you get over that "foreigner" label ;)...Personally just bought 100 more shares ,,,,,,Long term Nio will sore
Changing a business class flight is like 3000 - 5000 EUR per person and we are 3. not worth for covering a NIO event on my own cost, that gets media coverage anyways. But glad you‘d do it.
All you guys have to do is look at xpeng stock overview and match it to Nio and you will see it’s identical, therefore it’s 100% proof that nothing Nio does separates itself from the sector and all of these RU-vidrs are just spreading 💩
So you don’t think the new sub-brand won’t help NIO but you haven’t seen the product or talked to any on the Onvo personnel? I think it would serve you right to draw your conclusions only after having an opportunity to personally review the product.
Absolutely will make my mind up again after seeing the product or speaking to people working on it. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to do that yet, while I keep trying to..
Your reasons are illogical. Onvo is a new revenue channel for Nio so it can only help Nio if successful. And it is likely to be successful for the reason that it is a mass market vehicle that has battery swapping, which no other EV companies have.
I personally find it a pity and a loss that Marcel was not able to attend the 500 meeting of ONVO he is the person most informative on RU-vid regarding Nio and his views are most interesting to Nio share holders.But then again when it comes down to marketing and promotion this is not Nio strong point
Your delusional if you aren't bullish. If you were allowed to attend the 500 event then we all know your story would be different. Just sour grapes Tbh.
you absolutely right the event could have changed my opinion today, although thats not sure because the car itself hasn't been shown. But would have been good to get a grasp of the new manager and speak to people involved. I'll now watch the launch event and at some point will test the car, too. Maybe it will change my opinion for the sub brand. But for now I tell you how it is, I don't have high expectations for it based on what I know so far. Like I said in the video, I think NIO brand and especially the partnerships are more bullish for us shareholder, than the sub brand release.
Not sure Marcel is bullish about anything...nothing wrong with that...just his approach and personality....having other auto companies join the swap network is the big money for me👍
It's not about Onvo. Battery swap is the way to profits. CCP is behind it and everybody wants to partner with Nio on charging and Battery Swap. Onvo is important don't get me wrong... but battery swap is a larger fish. Q4 2024... battery swap goes mainstream.
You need to provide a better explanation without seeing the car as to why you are unsure that it will sell well? I think it will sell like hotcakes. It’s a common man’s car with every feature others offer PLUS BAAS at an average man’s price. Let’s stop the BS and uncertainty. Life is uncertain. But I will tell you one thing , this car will sell based on what’s out there already and the infrastructure that’s coming into place . Everyone here is buying or selling stock.. not a single RU-vidr is a car company expert.
