Is Putin Actually Popular in Russia? 

Nfkrz, a Russian RU-vidr with a Western audience with over a million subscribers, was actually talking about this. He's from the city and region of Chelybansk. His mom works in a tractor factory and is forced to to go these types of events. He's now in Tbilisi, Georgia because of financial issues due to the sanctions.

The thing that missed from such an analysis is that the popular opinion in Russia is kind of irrelevant, but not in the way that you'd think. You have to consider that outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg (which is most of the country, area and population wise) people still basically live in a Soviet Union. Out of 85 administrative regions of Russia 72 are running budget deficit and depend on the money coming from Moscow, with the majority of people there working in the government job. They are not going to denounce the government, not because they will be thrown in jail, which is a factor obviously, but just because it is unwise to bite the hand that feeds you. So, all of this regions, and all this population, will have whatever position the Kremlin will have, they tow the line or they starve. If tomorrow there will be a coup and a new government will say "Putin sucks" - that would be the new opinion of 80% of the population.

The 'List Experiment" technique was new to me. Equally interesting point was the fatigue effect of a survey. Many times I stopped at the middle of answering a survey because it would take me too much time to answer the questions. The smart A.. survey designer who wanted to get the most of me actually got zero.

According to one of the young Russian Vloggers on RU-vid older, less educated Russians who rely on TV for information tend to support Putin and the war. But support is lower among educated younger Russians with a more diverse media diet. Of course it's going to be hard to explain away increasing numbers of dead Russian soldiers to parents and spouses as the war drags on.

Depends if "Ethnic Russians" only are being asked. If certain areas in the Federation, such as Siberia, where drafted army individuals are only reported missing, and not KIA, and no compensation is being given to families with likely dead soldiers in Ukraine, people are not going to give an honest response out of fear.

You cannot look at Russia the same way as the West. Russians have only lived under Soviet Russia and then Boris Yeltsin and Putin. They are used to just "one man, strong leader" type deal. Not Democracy and choices. As long as the "king" does most of the things right and it's "better" than Soviet Russia, it's pretty low bar to contend with. But it's also clear that a lot of people in Russia are kind of isolated in regards to the world and news, except younger people. The older watch state media. We see more different voices among the young. But even then, there is still a lot of support for Putin. Under Putin Russia has become a lot more prosperous than all previous times. So like I said, they can only look back at times with Soviet Russia or Yeltsin. No matter what you think, no matter how much him and the Oligarchs stole, it's still better standard of living for them. I guess.

I've had some liberal minded people in Russia in 2015 telling me how grateful they are to Putin... because the hyperinflation before him was so bad that every fault of his could be excused as long as the only people who suffer from him were political critics and not those who minded their own lives. I wonder what they feel now. But to be honest, most of the worst US presidents I'd support if the other guy would make USA like Zimbawe.

after talking to a few Russians that worked close to were I live (Scandinavia) long before the war, they could not praise him enough. Russians are not dumb people, but they have a fully different outlook on the world and their own country then we inn the west have for many different reasons. So I believe he is as popular as the poll says, after being surprised about what the Russians told me about him and their opinions of him.

Those were some incredible insights, and I'm really glad that your channel is commenting on these current events. Hopefully this information can be both entertaining and helpful in some way...

As someone who lives in Russia, I'm yet to meet someone who would openly admit to me to not support Putin, even when I put myself out there and openly state that I support Ukraine. Usually when I do admit it, people just look at me in utter shock and the conversation doesn't go too far after. I feel like it's became worse since the start of the war, back in spring 2022 I remember having lots more people around who were openly against the war. I guess they either left or got imprisoned since

Great video, keep them coming.

I find the list experiment ingenious but unconvincing…

I lived in Moscow for 6 years from 2014 to 2020. I went on almost 100 Tinder dates and was called by some the "King of Networking" in the business realm among expats there. After countless discussions with real Russians, it was clear to me Putin's election victories were not far-fetched.

I LOVE that you included Norway as one of the "Major Economic Powers"! We're not even part of the G20 but still! Thank you very much!

Allow free speech, protests and open elections; then let's see Putin's performance.

I think the approval rating is whatever will keep someone alive.

Suffice to say...it is going down. Slowly but surely.

Why are you worried about Putin's poll numbers? Are you Russian? Tell us about Biden's, Bojo, Macron, Olof etc. Western press committed suicide years ago.

There is a Channel on RU-vid that interviews average folks on the street in Russia - I won't mention the name as I think the owner is risking a lot already. A few Russians (mostly older folks) say they support Putin but the majority either say that they are afraid to say what they think, or say that they would prefer someone else.

Another way would be the following: instead of asking someone directly whether they support Putin, ask them to toss a coin (without showing) - if it's heads, they should say whether or not they support Putin and, if it's tails, they should always answer with no. That way, people can voice their disapproval of Putin and blame it on the coin.

Very interesting! Thank you!

Hitler and goebel was also popular until the last year of the war.

Implicitly revealing your preferences isn't only a problem if you say 0. That's the only way the interviewer can be *sure* you dislike Putin but it's still _more likely_ you dislike Putin if you say 1/4 than if you say 3/4. So I think answers would be biased upwards at all levels.

I do not know anything about ”Game Theary” but you show me a nee way to look at things!!!👍👍

Sooner or latter, Russia is going to need new reforms across the country

Hi Prof Spaniel, this video is quite interesting, hope there will be more videos about research methods.

Dude, very good analysis.

Here is how you gage if sanctions are enough on a country which you are in an existent war with - if you see any economic movement which you control and will not damage your own economy disproportionately - you haven't enough sanctions. Why would you at this point not use a "weapon" which you can wield to have an effect. It is irrational when there is a full on conflict where the opposition will not negotiate in good faith.

1:59 Why does he not post the percentages on that bar graph?

I can say that that not only Putin has widespread and overwhelming support in Russia but also huge support of the Russian irridenta in Post-Soviet states

It would be better to ask “Which of X’s policies do you approve of?” or “Did you like punk music in the 80s?“ Like how Hamlet criticized the state paranoia of Elizabethan England, but wouldn’t come right out and say it.

PS. 102 % of the votes in some regions is quite much 😁 - even if there's no opponent - as they've all been killed or prisoned (and yes, putler got that in some presidential election)

precisely

@4:30 The math eludes me as to why 0.53=53% support for Putin when 100%=2.35 in the 4 choices list... 0.53 is a difference in ratio not percentage surely? He's not explaining the process fully IMO...help?

I'm a Russian that moved from a western country back to Russia and learns in a way different school I can say that the children and all of my classmates from 7-16 are mostly pro war just believing what the news say which is to be expected. But adults (mostly young adults and women) are more sympathetic to the people in Ukraine because of relatives there and more access to media. But they still don't like to fully show their opinions in fear of the government's oppression. Pro Russians base there political stances on "what Putin said" and dismiss or have no way to see the other side of the argument. it's basically impossible to start any talk with them they just keep denying any argument.

I like your comments . Makes a person think

in Russia the feelings are mixed about their government ofc it is hard for me to determin when i am not their but ig it is

I am more honestly more interested in his approval among people in power compared to their fear than of the ordinary Russian citizens who have little to no opportunity / incentive to inform themselves unless they are politically interested.

Unfortunately, the love and devotion the Russian people have for their leader encourages him to apply whatever means - possibly including nuclear weapons because it is being mentioned often enough during the war in Ukraine - he deems necessary to accomplish his goals. Maybe when a nuclear war starts, the Russian people will start questioning themselves whether or not they could have had prevented such a global disaster.

Whilst I've not seen any anti-putin sentiment I have heard of rising criticism for the military performance from within Russia. Important to note these are not views against the war itself, just for how the Russian military has messed up the attack. Some of this could come back to reflect on Putin.

I'm sure someone will find fault in my methodology... I directly surveyed 1,000 Russians on twitter and got the following: 411 refused to reply to direct question regarding Putin 397 approved of Putin's performance since the war 192 disapproved I used a separate account to soft interview 100 of the 411 who refused to comment. 33 still refused to comment 27 supported Putin 40 expressed concerns

I am quite good at statistics, but, as others, also fail to see why the difference of 0.53 is 53% support. I mean the difference could also be 1.5 or -0.4. Then what?

Fear is different than popularity

Dude I love your videos, keep it up man

I think the numbers are much lower, especially considering the incredibly high casualties that Russia has been suffering. And as of late, news of massive protests occurring in Russia have dried up completely ! Suggesting a severe crack down by Russian security services.

You can't conduct polling in dictatorships, period. No way around it. It's difficult enough to do in Western democracies, for example Trump - Clinton election.

[Anyone asks to give points to my fondness of Leonid Brezhnev] [Me getting a mental image of his magnificent eyebrow] "All of them!"

There is a reason for the 200.000 refugees from Russia we had coming here for years and the major influx in February.

His approval rating is probably higher than we would like or think it should be but not as high as the Kremlin would have us believe.

Even n states where hardly anything happens even if you are convicted of minor crimes like owning 2g of weed.(Which is extremely unlikely to even go to court even if you are caught by the police.) Most people I know will still lie in a poll. Even though consumption is already decriminalized. Meaning you can walk into a police station high as kite, proudly proclaim you did so. And best they can do is make a drug test and if they really hate you: you can maybe lose your drivers license for a while. So to me it's baffling how the approval rating is not 100% when you can go to prison for holding up a white piece of paper.

Yes he is.

Conjecture.

No chit

I would think Putin's popularity would really be around 30 %.

I'm not familiar with the field: is abstract "popularity" actually predictive of anything important?

literally today Draghi was in some forum, and got a standing ovation form the journalists there, and the journals all say Draghi us super loved and supported, and still, i barely can find an italian that even remotely like Draghi. Propaganda is hard, propaganda is life

In Soviet Russia, data poles you.

Perhaps i am odd in this, but i never support a person; rather i support actions and ideas. I admit i often feel a "tug" to support a person, but i am mindful that this is a weakness and make efforts to always "re-center" myself.

has seen few major strategic objective be accomplished??? you actually put up this sentence . 126,119 sq km is few strategic objective? im speechless.

It's a very tough questions. Like everything it all depends who you ask. Russian nationalist do not like Putin. In fact he is known for financing his own opposition in order to identify and weaken them. Russia is set to become a majority Muslim country just like most of the countries in Western Europe. This is why he is hated by nationalist Russians. He has even opened mosques in Russia and shown them support. That is something 2 face Putin does not want you to know. Awesome video. Thank you.

I think true poll numbers would be low with younger educated people. Those over 60 would support him to a higher degree

Nice picture of Trudeau at 9:01

amazing

Q about the example: How can 53% support for Putin be deduced when only 50% of respondents get asked about Putin?

I think there's a small majority in favour, however, only a tiny minority are enthusiastic about the war or him generally any more.

Do they ask the same people these questions? Because I would definitely see that as a trap if I got asked both.

is this Putin's war or Russia's war ? your video suggests the latter to me

Bad to take castro as an example, as ppl even in russa might be scared to say anything negative about him. Pic some more neutral not affliated to the east or west like bolsonaro in brasil or something

20%

Still seems inconclusive.

Is there a possibility that people also feign support for Castro?

Good for them

I think the algorithm used to ascertain Putins internal support is pointless. A better idea would be to ask how much would you want to be paid to support him compared to Zelenski!

Putin's approval rating in Internet meme world had always been positive. I'm sure Putin's approval rating is higher than Joe Biden's, Kamala Harris' and Boris Johnson's ratings all combined.

10 percent

22%

It is has-no value it is impossible people can-give true answer

Simple question to u who won the 2020 election

Why Angela Merkel and not Olaf Scholz?

It appears to be impossible for the people to answer a question about support for Putin when they have no knowledge about what is really happening in Ukraine. It also depends upon the degree that they listening to the single channel TV propaganda.

Same thing can be said if anything your saying is true

So basically you're saying Russia fudges the numbers

Bruh first 2016 now today

But if you show a list of ex presidents the pressure might be very low. On the other hand if you show a list with Putin in it, the people might feel more compelled to answer that they approve not only of Putin but all of them, or to remove any doubt that they zero-ed Putin by one-ing all of them.

Thank you for actually admitting putin is still popular rather even though i can tell it pains you to say so. You can support ukraine and still admit facts that dont help your cause

If you are running an autocratic country you get to decide the outcome of elections and polls, lol.

Couldn’t have happened to a better country!!!

And it could be conditioning. They see Putin and think it's a trick reguardless of what's been said and figured they better vote accordingly. If I thought my life depended on, or my families lives depended on my answer when I saw or heard Putin be added. Id raise my number just because he was present. So the welfare of me and my family would be preserved. The past rulers wouldn't matter.

Not really.

82 % for putler in gallups. 9 out of 10 refuses to answer at all -> really putler gets a yes from 8,2 % of all that're being asked.

When the Soviet Union collapsed and disintegrated in 1991 it left Russia disoriented, depleted and desperately broke especially after its honeymoon with Glasnost and perestroika when the population had been given all the freedom in the world on which they literally gone crazy on and they found they never knew how to handle such freedom especially since their thoughts of how free was the west was so overblown in their own imaginations they simply gone out on the town with it like drunken sailors of it on the town and really got way beyond their wildest imaginations but such a euphoria only lasted a short while before they started to wake up to the realities of themselves becoming broke and could neither afford nor sustain such lifestyles and then woke up to the reality and realised such unbridled freedom was simply too dangerous and they were not adequately capable of handling such freedom nor could they afford it and realised they better stick to to heir own way of living that is s familiar to then and Mr Putin inherited a very depleted economy on t he E verge of total collapse with much devastation of the economy and all it's institutions were so corrupt there seems to be no more hope for Russia. So Putin had not only revised Russia's economy but distributed fair portion of the nation's wealth towards social programs etc...much better than what the West has been doing.and revised all it's institutions and brought a lot of prosperity to his nation and much better distribution of the nation's wealth than in the west. Also instituted a lot of reforms the people approved of and they appreciated his efforts as he proved himself a very worthy president. This is I think is his source of popularity amongst all Russians and the more the West tried to discredit him amongst the world and even amongst his own people the more his popularity grew despite all the negativity arrayed against him he took all in his stride and continued to engage wherever possible and the people appreciate his honourable commitment to all causes on his people's behalf and when troubles arose he dealt with them swiftly to his people's expectations and admired him and showed him their gratitude for his benevolent actions. President Putin has shown himself to his people to being honourable and has love in his heart to Mother Russia beyond measure and the people will not accept any Western effort at undermining their love for him and their appreciations for the job well done by not only bringing Russia back from the Abyss it was facing.before he took office, but also the way he managed all it's affairs throughout his reign

My question do the Russian citizens see accurate info about the war

Let me describe as Russian. Situation is that society is strongly divided into some groups. Highly-educated / low educated; not poor / poor; younger / older. The older people, the lower their prosperity and education level - then higher support of Putin, cuz they have to survive ( more than opposite group) and do not think critically. Furthermore, there was an elections about 6 month ago for kind of parliament in Russia (duma). Support level of Putin’s party was about 30% despite the fact that he was agitating for it and using administrative resource ( government employees - school teachers, doctors and etc.). In general, what I can say - Putins electorate mostly is 50+ people from regions with low prosperity. If you will initiate poll in St. Petersburg or in Moscow, you will see that support level of Putin in main political centers is critically low. Especially among youngster (16 to 30 age old) PS. In addition to groups: active internet users / tv-watchers. Russia strongly cense each tv channel, avoiding appearance on tv of any problem in Russia and arresting tv hosts that accidentally said something “wrong”. In that case typical news on tv looks like this: poor Europe&USA overwhelmed by huge taxes, aggressive Muslim refugees, freezing without gas, while Russia has lots of food, gas and absolutely no serious problems. Fun fact - taxes in Russia are hidden - real tax rate is from 48% for people who do not buy alcohol, fuel and cigarettes and up to 80% for drinking, smoking car driver. This taxes paid by employer and included in price of products while the open part of taxes is 13%, so many people in Russia thinks, that they pay small tax.

I'd guess support among older ethnic Russians in Moscovy region is near 80%. I'd guess well under 50% in outlying regions, Siberia, and ethnic minorities, and younger, educated people.

146%

In my opinion the biggest mistake someone can make is to assume what the people of a foreign country wants using numbers If that were true Afghanistan would have been conquered 3 times in the past century

A better way to get to the truth might be to ask: How popular was Ceausescu before they k'd him?

I took the time to write an article about the passing of David Kay, a former IAEA inspector who later headed the CIA’s postwar investigation into Iraqi WMD. I then made a two minute topic video. And yet people still have the gall to denigrate the man, claiming he “lied” about Iraq’s WMD, and therefore is personally responsible for the deaths of millions of Iraqis. This needs to stop. Let me start with the following premise: if you weren’t an inspector with on the ground experience in Iraq, or an Iraqi personally involved in WMD programs, then simply put you don’t have a clue. Your best course of action would be to remain silent. Many people believe that I resigned from the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) because I believed Iraq had a clean bill of health. Wrong. I resigned because of American interference in the inspection process necessary for making a final conclusion on Iraq’s disarmament status. I believed-rightly so-that there was work left to be done, and that the US was trying to avoid the conclusions a completed inspection process might reach and as such just wanted to skip the inspections and reach a conclusion based upon an incomplete investigation. I wanted to inspect; the US stopped me. I resigned. My goal was always to get inspectors back in Iraq. To finish the job. I’ve written extensively on this particular history. My book Endgame provides an Annex drawn from a 1997 study I authored about what remained unaccounted for in terms of WMD. My inspections were designed to account for that missing information/material. Throughout my time as an inspector, I had to overcome Iraqi lies, concealment and intimidation. These Iraqi tactics were not conducive to giving the Iraqis the benefit of the doubt. The Security Council resolutions mandating our work called for 100% compliance-not 80%, not 90%, not 95%. 100%. It was nonnegotiable. Iraq never achieved that 100% level. I assessed them at around 95-97%. My inspections were geared toward resolving the unaccounted for 3-5%. This is the point I made to the US Senate and House of Representatives in September 1998. What caused me to radically alter my position wasn’t new data about Iraqi WMD, but continued US interference that led to the December 1998 Desert Fox bombings, which included an assassination attempt on Saddam using intelligence my team had collected for legitimate disarmament purposes. The Iraqis knew this too, and they terminated their relationship with UNSCOM. With UNSCOM dead, I believed that the approach to disarming Iraq could shift from Quantitative accounting to Qualitative analysis-instead of hunting down every last scrap, assess whether what was unaccounted for constituted a meaningful WMD capability. I put this idea in writing, publishing an article in June 2000 in Arms Control Today. I was very much an outlier on this issue. Even my colleagues, like David Kelly, believed Iraq should be held to the original 100% standard set down by law. So did David Kay. David Kay’s testimony was predicated on the 100% disarmed standard. He was right to point out that Iraq had not met that standard. Later, when he headed up the CIA’s investigation, David Kay had to come to grips with the fact that the Qualitative standard was the right one. The report his team eventually prepared mirrored my June 2000 article. There was nothing dishonorable about David Kay. For those who continue to make that argument, you are only highlighting your own ignorance and prejudices. Cease and desist.

What you said is quite wrong.

In reality, he's about as popular as a shart at a Sheeran concert