Is Raghuram Rajan’s Vision the Right One For India’s Economic Future? | Raghuram Rajan Live 

Interview has taken place at the most rightful moment as Dr is no longer seen on NDTV. Thank you Thapar .Lots of important ideas gained.

Thanks Thappar for this interaction with our great Raghuram Rajan.

Extremely interesting discourse!!!! So insightful🙏

In 2022, Raghuram Rajan said India will be lucky to get 5% growth. Now it's around 7.6%

Our Universities have been turned into political arena for left and right, not a centre of excellence of learning. I feels nostalgic seeing Dr. Rajan who once glorified and dignified our RBI and economy. Wish him long life and expect to hear his future advise. He must be brought back to India as Economic Advisor of INDIA Govt.

The true gem which MMS found, Mr Rajan's words are true to the point. We all anticipate governments take him seriously.

This man once said ,'India is dangerously close to Hindu rate of growth '.

No one doubts India's potential, but the cultural aspect will let India down. The enormous corruption will limit India's future achievement.

In the beginning Raguharam rajan says we should be focusing on labor intensive jobs, but then he goes on to say we cannot follow manufacturing model and we should be trying more for services. The reality is that there are many indians at various level of skills. we definitely need low end and medium skilled jobs. It seems like companies want to move here for the high skilled talent, but not for the low-end and medium skilled talent. Why? because the rest of the logistics (power, land acq, labor, transportation, beuraucracy) are a nightmare compared to vietnams of the world. If we need to have "labor intensive" jobs like he says in the beginning, we needed to solve the logistics problem first. All criticisms aside, seems like this govt has done a good start in this area. Increasing skill in your workforce is necessary, but in the meantime we need to make it easier for "labor intensive" low end jobs, else we will have greater disparity. I don't see Dr. rajan making this connection anywhere/ The second gap in this explanation is that upskilling is NOT JUST school/university education.. For all his criticisms of assembly manufacture, if you were in the manufacturing industry, you would realize that it is actually an upskilling endeavor. The more manufacturing (even low skilled ones) you have, the easier it is to upskill your workforce and adjacent industries. A simple example is maruti. The entire approach of slow indigenization resulted in india becoming a automotive parts supplier. We have a skilled workforce in that area now. So we may subsidize a strategic industry now which just packages chips, which is low end. But it upskills the labor in 5-10 years so much so that low end chip manufacturing will come to us. Just as it happened for samsung/lg in south korea in the 90s. Now they ran with their upskilled workforce and did their niche enhancements for memory chips making them a leader in that area. Even if chip industry doesn't workout completely, actually $2-5b is cheap investment if it triggers adjacent industry development (there are many adjacent industries from software to chemicals to materials, etc). While his macro economic observations are very valid, I find his criticisms of industry policy completely detached from real world.

The problem is our politicians are incapable of imagining the future of the country but they are very good at making a bright future for themselves.

A very good analysis of Dr. Rajan's book...no doubt thought provoking.... supplemented by some good questions raised by your good self.

Dr. Raghuram Rajan should be made finance minister of India.

Very informative and necessary discussion for a contemporary indian audience

Rahu Ram Rajan is a great Economist

Excellent course correction suggestion a must. Thanks Professor & Karan.

Karan Thapar is capable to conduct high intellectual discussions.

Good discussion. Dr. Rajan's presription for a rich India is a bitter pill to swallow in the short term but would help leapfrog over other countries in the long term. For this India needs good governance and selfless politicians. Btw, US is trying to bring back manufacturing to avoid the bottlenecks it faced during COVID. Too much reliance in any country to do your stuff can lead to calamitous situations.

I think Mr Rajan’s insights into the Micron FDI is very short sighted. When a large plant is built, a complete ecosystem is created and usually creates a rippling effect. It surprises me that so much media attention is being given to him? The full job impact can be 20-30x plus it lowers the cost barriers to bring other companies in the same industry. India has a small window to capitalize on its demographic trends and the global political landscape.

The message remains the same 75 years later The words are lovely, dark and deep, but I have mines to go before I sleep

A must watch for all.

Very informative interview, education and negotiating with countries for more opportunities for Indians is the key for India.

To add to the discussion - if we still look at the Manufacturing sector it should be in the SME sector, but concentrating on reducing our imports.

Rajan is very sincere whenever on deputation.

44 minutes well spent. Thank you for such educative discussions 🙏🏼

India's 2022-23 LFPR is 58.9% for age group 15-59, not 40% as he says in the interview. As an economist, one would expect RRR to know this! And a good part of the remaining 41.1% is because many women don't work by choice!

After Dr Manmohan Singh ,Raghuram Rajan is the man to lift India out of the darkest quagmire of complete economic derailment.At this critical juncture of confounded crisis we look forward to his path breaking guidance and services. Such a far sighted sagacious man of utmost austerity is a rare asset for any regime except a ruthless regime of arrogant autocracy.

I struggle to understand , how is India's present trajectory any different than what the good Dr suggests it should be ?

Ulster Institute estimate of IQ by country. PRC 104 India 76. That does make a difference as well. Not at the early industrial phase but for sure in the developed industrial stage.

India IT and services sector grew without a helping hand from Governemt. So I do expect that would be the case going forward. But the issue is only max 5% of Indians could afford to work in these services at best of times. How can the rest get employed. Only a part of the answer would be agriculture then where is the rest coming to come from?

Thank you for another illuminating discussion.

brilliant and very apt views looking forward to a bright and developed India 2047 . Thanks Dr R Rajan and Mr Lamba , and Karan Tapar

Thank you for this interview. Two very knowledgeable people who care for our country & want our youth to excel & outshine, at least if not outnumber the others 👌🏻

First person I have heard that says we shouldn't manufacture but scale up services. He is essentially talking about running a western Europe economy in low literacy high population region. 😳

Thank You Karan for this interview

Amazing interview. So much to learn about how present shapes the future.

RR is highly negative man when it comes to current government. Good day 🎉

Please read: Small is Beautiful-Economics as if People Mattered, by E F Schumacher.

Agreed on his suggestion on malnutrition linked with healthy labour.

All credit goes to Raghuram Rajan’s guru “Politics-in-your-pants” Pandit Rahul ji.

Yes we need to do much more. Development of China become a force 1980 onward, and that time we had not taken proper micro and macro level development programmes. Since last decade this scenerio has changed in our favour. This rapid growth will ensure much needed growth in employment sector as well, hence we are on right path.

I think he has really good points.. our govt should set aside its dislike towards him because of his politics & accept & implement his ideas as what i c is both govt & Dr Rajan have same goals for the country..

Most sensible and urgent Very important to spread the dream

Raghuram, Experience as an Economist = 100% , performance as an Economist = 0% Experience as a politician. = 0 % , performance as a politician. = 100% That's him in nutshell

Raghu Ram at the beginning says for fast growth there needs an authoritarian system and in the later half he says you need democracy, civil society. And Karan lets him go

44 minutes well spent 🎉

Absolutely lovely interview. Many of today's social media population and Govt. supporters would not have the intelligence to understand the point being blind to cheering of India's economy growing. Not that one should not be happy about that, but true sensible and intelligent Indian should also ponder, is this growth in real sense, does it convert to benefit of the common and poor people of India too. As Raghuram rightly pointed out, the most important thing for development of a country is to ensure providing jobs, earnings for survival to the maximum population majorly which are either unskilled or semi-skilled. We do all the talk of Made in India, and that world market is eager buying Made in India products, even the world's best products are going to be manufactured in INdia and so and so. Thats really great news, but how much employment have these things been able to generate. Even the skilled people are not sure of getting jobs and they are scouting all over abroad for jobs. Education in India once was supposed to be one of the best and that too cheaper, but now all the better earning family kids are travelling abroad to study and education in INdia is so damn costly that people are forced to have only one child, while education should have been absolutely free till graduation atleast so that the country gets truely developed and grown. Not everybody can be a Gujarati businessmen to earn money even without education.

I admire him very much ❤

Excellent, must watch interview. The million dollar question is whether this regime is open minded enough & intellectually willing to appreciate the very valid points made & do a course correction. Given that we have a PM who is highly insecure (thanks to his lack of education), a party that is spectacularly/brazenly communal in nature & oligarchy/crony capitalism growing by leaps & bounds, it would be nothing short of a miracle if a liberal ethos is encouraged in thought & deed. The only solution seems to be a change in govt in 2024. Given ECI’s & most constitutional bodies track record in the past 9.5 years, even this seems impossible.

In my opinion India is messing with its present and future in its try to correct the past. Instead, India should focus on the golden egg of this era fueled by digital economy rather than chasing the lost opportunity.

Wonderful way of elucidating the different paradigms of economics.

We must not forget that Indira Gandhi stopped "expansion and modernization" of private sector industry which actually needed 1991 type of liberalisation around 1972 !! This created havok in the employment and with the health of the economy, pushing us back instead of accelerating the growth !

Indeed insightful. Infact i went on to listen all the interviews about this book promotion, be it at The Wire, The News Minute, CNBC TV18 , NDTV Profit, The Hindu, Bangalore International Centre, Mojo Story, Blinkist etc. And i literally loved listening each minute, the same way i love listening Mr Jaishankar. He has made very good valid points that should be raised openly. It's true that most if the leaders be it of BJP, Congress, AAP and others won't be there in after 2050-2070 something. Meaning they won't be there to hold accountable, and our nation wiil be struck back and our future generations will blame us. Let's not have that attitude to not to listen each other and say no no my way is the only and the best way. Have the debate, maybe we can find things we like in each other's points, and then build a stronger policies. Government kisi ki b ho, lekin bhalai sabki honi chahiye.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the beginning he talks about how problem of mass unemployment looms large in our country and in later part suggests than rather than manufacturing we should concentrate on value creation. Here is the problem , to use his example while Apple creates a lot of value a company like that would create value for its majority stake holders and a comparatively lesser number of employees. Where as a company like foxcon though valued less would employ a large number of people because of the labor intensive nature of their activity. So is it just me of what he talks is actually paradoxical ?

Raghu , how many people these consulting companies foreign banks hire in india only a fraction of the elite educated people in iit iim nit not small towns grads low skilled people and illiterate poor how will they get good jobs and high quality wages you have a very elite view of the economy and society 😔

Outstanding!

As much as I respect RaRa, the fact that he said our economy is growing at much faster rate because we are poorer just doesn't make any sense. If that is the case, India was growing slower under his tenure when India was even poorer and that too when the world had a favourable economic conditions post GFC. Now, the fact that we have growing above expectations in an economic environment where we just came back from COVID and currently going through two wars with Fed interest high af in US and slowing EU... We have to give credit where it is due! There is a growing inequality, yes. There is an unemployment factor. Yes. But, the analysis that we are poor and therefore we are the fastest doesnt make sense. If that si the case, every country in Africa should be growing as fast as us. But, they are not. Expected better analysis from someone as credible as him.

Dhanyavad 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

Welk said. Coudnt agree more.

Very good interview. Thanks Mr. Thapar for bringing such valuable guidance to general public (which otherwise won't be provided on the main stream media). Dr. Rajan, thanks for your insights into how the India can get max advantage from all the sectors except Agriculture. Offcourse, unfortunately agriculture IS NOT ALLOWED and NOT PROMOTED for export business, but wouldn't agri-export be benefitial to country like India with such a glorious history (strength) of agriculture sector?

Very good job sirji jayhind Jay Bharat thanks

This interview creates good awaerness ...

Excellent anatomy of Indian economy and development

Very enlightening.

Thanks!

Interesting points 🎯

Thanks

Great to listen to Dr RR always, here in deliberation with media expert Karan - very insightful on how one can grow economy with majority employment to unemployed 👍👍

He is Just like coach from dhangal😂. "We will be lucky if we get 5% growth next year" -quote by the legend 😂

I wish I could invite him to manage India's finance ministry.

Also, around 7:00, RaRa says India should be focusing on labour intensive manufacturing and not capital intensive manufacturing like the recent Micron investment. He mentions this is not how China started and kinda hinted India should follow China's path. Literally 30 seconds later after Thapar asks why in his book he mentions China model doesn't work for India, he goes on a rant how China's model used to work and how it can't work for India now But... you literally said China model is what we should go for first literally 30 seconds go and then, completely contradict later.. wtf? Expected better from RaRa

You are awesome as always. I support u

As Martin Wolf says "India has become less liberal but more efficient". And while growing up we need to prioritize improvisations in our infra,system-efficiency etc. over the liberalism without completely ignoring it.

That is genius dr raghuram rajan .. a big fan of him... he speaks black and white .. mr thapar dr raghuram rajan is not like you guys typically left Librando congressi wine sipping Delhi elites feeling left out as no more non hob for you in power corridor.... Dr rajan is genius and a good heart for India ..... please also learn from him mr thappar ....

The heady combination of two greats. Perfect recipe for a delightful episode which everybody should watch.

he gives mother hood statement ; whose responsibility is to generate jobs ; govt or private

Service industry is easier to shift compared to manufacturing. As third world countries get educated, big companies would be able to shift in matter of months and India will be left high and dry. Manufacturing is a strategic requirement.

Very Best interview

Very nice.

Two brilliant brains.. worth to watch

Artificial Intelligency, Digital Economy: India being multi-lingual nation could achieve prominent space in Information Enabled Technology Services in providing services of Content Writing, Translation, Online Services to MNC (IT) companies, etc.

Great work Karan,

In his book 'Development as Freedom' Prof. Amartya Sen has dealt these issues lucidly.

Good points as always, by DrRR. By the wwy, was someone on life support in the background? 😮

I think, services will grow despite of the government, we need manufacturing as well.

Raghurama Rajan as RBI governer gave high inflation in the country.

Awesome 🎉

I see lot difference with RBI, industries and military... Lets see how it goes..

The last chapter has been written by Nana Patekar

Thapar Sahib. Excellent interview. May the people of India continue to grow, this includes all people. There are some interesting challenges. India is bent upon challenging the might of China across every possible spectrum, definitely by 2047. This includes manufacturing. Is this the right approach, even with US's help, or whether Indian and Chinese future is synergistic, as heretic as it sounds now Next, the success of India at domestic and international levels, would not nudge the Modi government to move away from its hyper-religious agenda. After seeing all the cricket stadiums and other successes, who could blame Modi...even one of the stadiums is named after him...while he is alive. But the shape of India is evolving as the constitution is going to change in 2024, along with the fundamental nature of the Indian democracy, away from its secular structure. This is scary not just for Indians but the world itself and the recent events in Canada and US have not helped with the world goodwill for India. This remains a huge concern for all non-Indians, who want to see India succeed as the power representing global South. The good Dr. Sahib is a true academic but even he understands the changing nature of India could be an impediment for its future success. That is a decision that rests with Indians, but which greatly concerns the rest of the world.

inorder to have good schools we need to have teachers, and we have to pay them also. at present we have resorted to making colleges without teachers, and hospitals without doctors. We have started counting buildings as colleges and hospitals

India needs price stability, with the kind of inflation that India runs, its impossible to achieve real growth that Mr. Rajan is talking about.

Karan needs to use audio gear. It's high time.

I believe that the constraint that service oriented growth places on the economy is low employment elasticity. Given that niche sectors can only absorb limited amount of growth, that kind of growth model becomes unsustainable for the economy with world’s largest population especially skewed towards unskilled semi skilled domains. So the whole Goldman sacs argument seems limited to those on top of the educational outcome pyramid & further escalates income inequalities.

There’s one thing that I disagree with. Just going into high end manufacturing and services doesn’t solve the problem of the huge uneducated population. We need huge low end manufacturing too in our current phase of economic development the current

Too good gentlemen..

Karan Please interview Mr.Biren Singh in the next episode

Dr Rajan is correct on macro principle s but when it comes to micro factors, it is not our politician s or bureaucrats who are going to be our saviours.. It is the domestic economic activities where we can put money in the hands of poor people who will move to a better level of consumption and spending enabling them to be more healthy, happy, joining in the nation building.. Neither we need to compete with China nor we need to align with USA if our domestic economy manages just around 5-7%growth consistently for the next 10-20 years.. But if we are forced to take our eyes off from that and have to spend for defence spending, imports We will continue ' crawling '... It is the Poor who can save us not the rich..

We are not "vishwa gurus" but we r "vishwa chelas"... and work accordingly, this is the summary of this whole discussion and someone please teach these things to "The King" , who misguides the audience of being the so called vishwa gurus!!!!

The world out there is not only about Apple phones, there is an arry of products and the world needs that too.

Danke!