I'm from Ireland and our GDP per capita (2nd highest in the world) is definitely not trustworthy, since it's nearly entirely Apple and Google's international tax workarounds not impacting the local population.
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
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My mother’s great uncle was a statistician for the Mayo Clinic, and he told her something very important when she was a child: “you can make statistics say whatever you want”. A single number or study never tells the whole story
There's a nuance that was likely missed in communication: You cannot make statistics say whatever you want, unless you are willing to flat-out lie, but you can very often find a statistic that tells a particular story. For example, we can check unemployment trends across regions of the US, median income trends for different demographics, different inflation indices, and the different stock market indices, and at least one of the statistics among these is likely to offer a positive spin and at least one is likely to offer a negative spin -- so it is possible to pick the one that tells the desired story. That's why it is so important to ask, "is this the single correct number to care about?" before simply accepting what stories a politician will spin.
Since the debt crisis could unleash carnage on the stock market leading to economic downturns. We need to be prepared for potential market volatility. how can I secure my $600K stock portfolio against declining?
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a coach or other professional for advice.
That makes sense. I’ve been using a financial market expert for two years now and I own a six-figure diversified portfolio from investing in stocks. I want to diversify more this year, though.
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4:30 People really need to realize this. For example, if I sell a used screwdriver to my neighbor for $1 trillion, and he sells me his half bag of Oreo cookies for $1 trillion, we have immediately just increased the US GDP by $2 trillion.
@@TheLazyGeniuses Not on a personal level, but governments can certainly paint a rosy picture of their economy by artificially boosting their GDP through major projects such as infrastructures or encouraging real estate developers to build tons of houses that perhaps nobody actually wants to buy.
@@ttuliorancao The US military gas large inhouse projects and many large outsourced contracted projects. Contracts are typically bided on to compete prices down but there is a duopoly for some contracts so competition can be limited. These projects create real goods and services. Real labour and capital is expended and created. Even if you think the prices are higher than they should be, they're clearly not phantom projects just to bulk gdp. Us military spending accounts for 2.5% of GDP. Over time US military spending has decreased as a portion of GDP. That means it's physically impossible for US military spending to be inflating gdp over time as it's actively becoming a smaller part of GDP.
@@TheLazyGeniuses all US defense contracts have artificially inflated prices as the lobby of those companies are responsible for electing the whole congress. Furthermore, the defense sector became a oligopoly with very few companies competing and most of the time it's two fighting for any contract. If they say a jet will cost U$ 350 millions each, it will cost this much and hey, you just increased the GDP. Those artificially ballooned prices are the reason the US military costs so much but can't help letting the gap between them and China shrink year after year.
How about we focus on median income of working age adults? GDP is a metric that rewards a polarized income in society by keeping a larger set of the population desperate to keep working, while median income focuses on the center of the distribution and opportunities that are attainable for most people willing to think creatively about how to improve their situation. This metric would have signaled the severe problems of the US economy that has disproportionately pushed gains since ~1980 to the top 1% (thank you, Ronald!).
@@TheLazyGeniuses Those two topics are very specific economic questions and a single broad economic gauge should not track them with much precision. If it did, it wouldn't be tracking the broader economy anymore. (Of course, we can and do track those specifics using their own economic metrics.) The median working-age adult income is intended to reflect economic opportunity. This does relate to parents' ability to care for children, but it does not ensure every parent can do so (still not always fair) or is willing to put in the effort to do so (requires effort to realize the opportunity). Likewise, median income for working age adults also signals whether the typical working age adult can conceivably save for retirement, but it does not guarantee it due to personal circumstances (e.g. larger vs smaller family, dual or single income, healthy or chronically ill, etc) or due to undisciplined spending or saving behaviors. The metric also reflects unemployment levels -- if unemployment goes up, the metric goes down, and vice versa -- and the metric also captures when the economy is so crappy that people simply opt out of working (because we don't require the working-age adults to be employed).
I appreciate you guys delving into the nuance of the phrase "the economy is good." The US isn't my country but it is maddening to constantly hear this phrase when my friends, family, or I am not progressing in the slightest. Sounds like a bunch of smoke and mirrors which disregards my community's experience. This video is a cliff notes example of what information is left out of that phrase.
I guess I fell in love with this channel. I've watched at least 20 videos(for some multiple times) in last 2 weeks. Your videos are quite informative, understandable and sincere.
4:00 Manufacturing is actually coming back to the US post COVID. There's been a lot of government subsidies and major facilities being built (we're getting a huge 20 billion dollar intel plant in Ohio as well as an LG battery plant). The thing is, many plants for consumer goods are only profitable here with the integration of automation. As far as jobs coming back in manufacturing, they're more limited.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
The wisest thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different streams of income that doesn't depend on government paycheck, especially with the current economic crisis around the world. This is stilla time to invest in stocks, Forex and Digital currencies.
As a beginner i will like to start with $5000 | believe she's worth of it because many people's are talking about her I have to believe and give her a trial.
l also keep seeing lot's of people testifying about how they make money investing in Stock, Forex and Crypto Trade (Bitcoin) and I wonder why I keep loosing. Can anyone help me out or at least advice me on what to do.
The recent articles by the media comparing the UK as having a far worse GDP than the poorest state in the US ie Mississippi has more than convinced me that US based GDP metric is useless. Having lived more tthan half my life in the richest states of the US, I choose to return to the UK for many reasons other than GDP. The weather in both MA and MS is incredibly oppressive in Winter and Summer, while in England it is simply mild and boring. When you can not leave the house for 6 months in the US which forces you to use a car for everything while in the UK you can live without a car year round speaks volumes. So when Americans add in cars to the GDP it helps the US GDP while it makes the UK look poor when the reverse is true. But the UK has very different problems to Mississipi.
That's why you don't look at GDP alone. Same way you can't tell a child is healthy just because he's growing chubbier. Still, if that child starts losing weight uncontrollably, you know for sure that you need to see a doctor.
My understanding is that GDP also includes spending on healthcare, pollution cleanup, rebuilding after a disaster, interest on loans, etcetera. So even if you're spending money on a bad thing, it's good for the GDP. And saving for the future is theoretically bad for it because then you're not spending it.
True on the first part, but not true about savings. If you save the money in a bank account, that bank will loan the money out to other people who want to buy a car, house, or businesses that want to invest in growing their business. On the other hand if you invest it in stocks and bonds you're directly giving it to companies so they can fund their growth. Companies funding growth means spending it on new buildings, new equipment, and paying people to do R&D. The only savings that don't increase GDP would be stashing cash under your mattress.
I personally don't. I acknowledge that they're their own people of course, and they can express themselves as they please, but I thought the old-timey/traditional look was charming.
@@TheLazyGeniuses 10 is just an example number. How about 1000 (1 years worth of cups if I throw 3 cups per day) vs 1 container that I reuse? How about 10 Years?
@@crazydrifter13 it's also not clear that gdp in a world without disposability would be lower. You assume that money spent on disposable objects would just be saved if we banned disposables. But it's likely that money would.just get spent elsewhere which might even raise gdp.
@@TheLazyGeniuses yes but the world runs on incentives. And the incentive to waste and fill up landfills is strong currently. The money would be spent on other things that create long term value instead.
@@crazydrifter13 but your original claim that gdp incentives waste is likely wrong. If anything it seems to disincentive waste inso far as people even take into account an economic metric when they shop. It's fine to say we're too wasteful, but don't pin that on gdp when it's a perfectly useful metric
*I feel Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and.exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or a licensed expert in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields*
Interesting, This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite difficult to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro Investor?
the first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
3:10 this is true. I have a cocaine empire in a small African country. Our economic activity is equivalent to 1.7x that of the legal and public economys output. And that's our team alone. But you can't really blame it for not being recognized in the international numbers considering our leaders would like us to be kept under wraps given how theyre under our payroll. I hope one day there can be more transparency so the people can be helped properly.
Please comment on GDP per capita as a metric. I understand it is not perfect as this video explains other factors are not included. But still how reliable would it be ?
Good video, but a bit out of date. Saying that inequality has been increasing "for the last 15 years" but showing a graph ending in 2016 is a little misleading. Since deglobalization, the pandemic, and the Ukraine war we've seen inequality reversing in the US. Also, the trend away from manufacturing towards service jobs has also reversed around the same time. Because of that, a lot of our labor is being directed towards building industrial infrastructure at the same time we're seeing the labor pool shrink because more people retire per year than graduate just due to demographics. Anyone who's tried to hire a skilled tradesperson in recent years can see the result of this.
While inequality has dropped since 2019, I find your reasons for it odd and out of line with expert opinion. 1. Deglobalization - the world is still very globalized, not much has changed. If you're referencing tariffs, tariffs increase income inequality. They're a regressive tax that disproportionally tax the poor more than the rich. 2. The pandemic - the pandemic arguably did decrease inequality but mostly because of us monetary policy. 3. The war in Ukraine??? What? The only connection is maybe more domestic oil production but the US was already a net exporter of oil before the war. 4. The transfer from goods to services - This might have lowered inequality but I haven't seen anyone argue this before. The only thing I can think is that the share of capital income from services is smaller than the share of capital income from goods, which leads to more labor eating a higher share of the profit which lowers inequality. But I'm just spit balling. The labor pool is shrinking - this is objectively false. The US labour pool has only increased. This is because the labor market is hot so companies are willing to pay more and create more hospitable working conditions with flexible hours which has drawn in more workers that otherwise would have stayed in school or stayed retired. That and also immigration has increased the working pool. The real reason inequality has dropped is because of monetary policy which makes labor valuable, which increases the income of workers, especially the poorest workers.
It seems certain stocks are undervalued, flying under the radar despite their potential. You can't help but wonder when the market will recognize their true worth. How can I invest $600K wisely to ensure our future security?
It's frustrating when market inefficiencies persist, particularly with undervalued stocks. Consider consulting an advisor for smarter investing decisions.
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If you put it into accounting, GDP is equivalent to revenue... why do you argue about cost, debt, etc , in revenue? Thats just not possible. GDP alone is the single most large scale meausrement that its reliable its better than the other... so take it with grain of salt
@@royce9018 If a 1%er takes their yearly earnings and moves it outside the US, they are in fact absorbing that away from the US GDP. That money is no longer affecting the US GDP, just another nation's.
I feel like the economy is only good if you’re making over $100k a year. Eating out is way more than it was prior to 2016, the housing market has squeezed many people into terrible situations, many reports of food producers show huge profits which are causing consumer prices to be over inflated, and although wages are growing, it’s not keeping up for people at the bottom and middle incomes (the last I checked the average annual wage was $55k) - partly thanks to the failed attempt at a minimum wage increase in 2021 (don’t quote me on the year, if go to check it on Google in the middle of my comment, my tablet loves to delete what I’ve written). A combination of decreased regulation to companies making billions (no thanks to recent rulings by SCOTUS) and huge tax cuts that are still ongoing to those at the top of the ladder has lead us to this point and unfortunately the slow trudge of congress means nothing can change for the better until after the new term. The only way any positive change can happen is not economy-wide, but company-wide in the form of union contracts. My union may have decent safety standards and pay for most federal holidays, but I’m only making .25 over minimum wage in my state which is simply terrible, and why I’ve been looking for another job for 9 months.
@@royce9018 I've been perusing the comments for this video, and roughly half of yours come off as petty and unhelpful; your additions often detract from the overall discussions being had. Perhaps try to elaborate more on your points and be less disrespectful other commenters. Then again, my suggestion is under the assumption you're not a troll trying to bait people.
Interesting piece. You mention depreciation is not calculated as a negative factor and suggest it should be considered. GDP =Gross Domestic Product, Not Net Domestic Product. Apologies if you stated this, and I failed to see.
No you're correct, but you seem to have landed just adjacent of the point - they were specifically defining what the GDP is and isn't to someone who'd never thought about it before. As in, to someone for whom GDP is just a 3 letter short hand for "Economy Measuring Stick" without any idea of the pros and cons of that approach. They mention depreciation as an example of a negative factor that isn't included in the GDP, and point out that a more whole picture should include such data.
TL;DW: There's no single number that truly captures the health of an economy or society. (And what people think about the economy often has more to do with politics and nostalgia than the actual state of the economy.)
Also kinda hard to trust the DNC when their representatives keep assuring American citizens that President Biden is mentally capable and ready for another term. The entire political establishment is corrupted by corporate money
I mean you're right but I'd be careful not to trust any political party, even if like me you are "team blue" I also don't think it's helpful to say "party x is MORE trustworthy than party y." Obviously I don't take issue with voting for or preferring one party over another...but even on team blue we ought to be on highest alert these days.
@@bens5859 It could change but as of right now one party is objectively more "trustworthy" than the other. The dividing line has become more and more between the educated and uneducated.
Your right its hard to tell if people are doing well. I can tell u for sure I will be doing significantly better than my parents. People should take acccountable for their own lives.
I've learned that stocks going up does not always correlate to a healthy economy. People are struggling, spending less (quantity), but profits are still all time high because inflation, etc. E.g. a company is still profiting, but at a slower pace (decreasing). Profit shows good, people assume it's good.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
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great video, great information but I can't help but feel like I have seen that manbun grow up over the past year. None of my business, I know but it is so interesting to see that progress!
@@TheLazyGeniuses based on an averaging of a number of costs, and excluding a bunch of others that may or may not be a factor in a large minority of the population. What this comment is getting at could in fact be true.
@@swaggery it's fine to have nitpicks with how CPI is done, I do too. But the magnitude of error between measured and real inflation would have to be unrealistically massive to show that the median poor is worse now than 2019, economically speaking
I don’t think the stock market is a good indicator of how normal people are doing. It’s a good indicator of how the rich are doing, but when it comes to normal people I think it’s better to look at affordability of basic necessities, job quality, and overall happiness.
Lol,not even that. The rich actually have the means and skills to buy the dip and gain more when the market goes down,or invest into companies that are not even publicand get totally different results. Many also have their assets in 1 or 2 specific companies they own that rarely match the market. Most people who invest in the overall market are middle class who want to retire or upper middle class who try to become rich as well.
You know what GDP also doesn't care about? The quality of the items we purchase. I have been to an outlet after so many years. The prices are up, the quality is down. When I was a poor kid, we used to buy rubber/plastic shoes for 50 cents because it was the cheapest thing. Now I see certain brands like crocs, selling that rubber thing for $70. Yeah, GDP growth comes from advertising, marketing, huge profits and selling 5-dollar garbage to consumers with few choices.
@@zodiacfml the CPI measures rent and calculates owner equivalent rent for homeowners. This captures the actual cost of living in real estate prices and it is taken into account for inflation
They boost engagement on RU-vid. More comments mean the algorithm will push this video higher and potentially get more views. Creatisng more engagement and views. Potentially creating a viral video. Usually this is paid for by the people posting the videos. Also, there is the classic bots, used in phishing schemes. And finally, there are bots promoting other content and bots paid for by governments to promote agendas (Chinese bots will promote socialism and communism, degrade capitalism, pit Americans against each other, make unpatriotic claims, etc.). The ultimate goal is the culture war.
GDP doesn't matter. GDP is a measure of spending. What matters is inflation-adjusted GDP, since that measures how much people are actually making. Because as products improve and the economy becomes more efficient, prices fall, causing deflation with an equivalent level of spending. However, increased spending (usually as a result of an increased money supply) counteracts this and causes inflation, but the level of spending has no impact on people's quality of life, so should be factored out, which is why GDP is included in the equation. However, most economists have misunderstood and have been pursuing inflation to boost GDPs, and have been saying the economy's doing well because nominal GDP is up even though inflation-adjusted GDP is down.
"Unpaid work" is kind of irrelevant as we're trying to measure market activity. 4:09 The value of these services are what is paid for. They're not free. People get paid.
Unpaid labor should be accounted for because you wouldn't want to see GDP double because women entered the broader workforce, they were previously doing very valuable labor! You only want to see if the additional women getting paid for their labor are increasing their overall productivity despite no longer "producing" childcare, cooking, cleaning, etc.
Great video. Surprising how people are not keying in to Bitcoin even when is been the best performing asset for a while now. I’m favored financially with Bitcoin ETFs approval, Thank you buddy. $12,000 monthly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy
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Here's what I know... In 4 years rent has gone from $700 to $1100 4yrs ago my Costco bill was $200-$400, now $400-$800 for the same shit!!! Gas under $2, now $4.32 100% inflation!!!
Not all of it; let's not forget that in 2020, Russia and Saudi Arabia were in an oil price war, during which Saudi Arabia flooded the market with more oil during a period of low demand, causing gas prices to drop precipitously. Comparing the current prices to a point when suppliers were actually paying people to take their product because stopping production would have been even more expensive, and attributing that to "100% inflation," is bad economics.
@@micahbush5397 I remember that the price of a barrel of oil went negative - All I could think was "Send me 50 barrels of Oil and I will wait for the turnaround!"
GDP is based on expenses, so a company who paid a worker is a measured expense, and a worker who purchased food and rent is a measured expense, so this is still counted.
@@SeventhHeavenFTW yeah, but this is nominally related to inflation and a lot of people argue us inflation is high due to programs like paycheck protection
You can trust GDP, except the USA, because it's literally the only country where most other countries have parked their foreign reserves, aka Treasury, so this skew the GDP data massively.
The majority of people are struggling??? Where do y'all live, cause I don't see that, I only see like one or two homeless people and that's it, y'all make it seem like 70% of y'all are a 5% rent hike from declaring bankruptcy
Bruh .. I couldn't afford a good education and now I work for 420 euro a month. My rent is 160/ month and food costs me around 200. Meanwhile I see people around me going to groceries in Hummer and Teslas
“I Bust a trust fund lush with my American muscle!” Theodore Roosevelt Sigmund Freud: I notice that you talk about yourself which is funny, since you are hiding your true feelings like they were other people’s money.
So are never going to make a follow up video on your bitcoin video from 5 years ago? The one where it was $6K at the time. Funnily bitcoin has been called various things like scam, useless, fraudulent, malicious, wasteful or number of other things but I have NEVER seen anyone who has spent more than 100 hours of researching bitcoin say anything of such sorts. Oh and it just happens to be the best performing asset for the last decade. Looking for your take on it 2 cents😇
I've researched that much. In general it's a scam, and you can't compete without running a server farm, running bots, or both, and you can still *easily* get rug pulled or hacked. I'm guessing you're pumping for a rug pull? Most earnings I've seen are due to this.
