Btw, I just got hired today after seven months without a job. I watch your channel all the time, you really helped me keep my head up. Thank you, dear!!!!!
I'm an older worker; not too far off from retirement. I look back at all of the jobs that I had at 1 time or another as 2nd income jobs. And I'm amazed at how many of them have been replaced by some form of AI or reliance on customers doing the job themselves.
This is what I never understand … if AI replaces millions and millions of workers around the world. Creating even more and more poverty? Who’s going to buy all the products and services that these corporate AIs have produced? There’s only so much that 1% of the population can buy.
UBI is all but inevitable at this point. "But what will all the people who don't work do?" Personally I'm going to submerge myself into a vat of electrically stimulated goop which I will have my AI assistant help me construct.
@@FaithfulFumoFan23 You all are insane to think politicians will want to completely subsidize you and still have to deal with the potential angry mob that could hold them accountable. Enjoy your life while you can.
Basically if THEY still want to have a job themselves they'll institute it. Otherwise people are just going to start doing whatever they have to in order to survive which usually involves not paying taxes
As a writer, I was worried about ChatGPT. I recently decided to start applying for full-time roles having been a freelancer for several years. There is NO shortage of copywriting jobs out there right now as most employers still recognise that ChatGPT creates generic articles and cannot (yet) replace the human voice. That said, writers should definitely keep an eye on AI as a threat to our livelihoods. I think quality writing with voice and personality is going to matter more than ever.
I have more than 10 years of experience in content roles and am now a senior editor. I would compare ChatGTP to an English-major in their 1st or 2nd year. ChatGPT writes cleanly, but it is frequently not concise and I do not trust how it gathers information, especially in the health space. Meaning that I end up having to do way more work as an editor fact-checking, cutting, and rewriting with sources that I have to go out and find. I would rather have a human freelancer or full-time employee whom I can trust to produce that high quality content from the start. Also, as you said, ChatGPT has limits. It does not write well around SEO keywords, it can not interview people, does not do research well, and can not add the human touch that you find in really good writing. There are many jobs that ChatGTP can and should do - writers need not waste their time creating outlines, writing captions or FAQ content, generic emails, etc. We need writers to create impactful content that moves the needle across industries.
And then I take several styles and "voices" and tell it to combine it. Give it a few different templates to choose from. It passes the "test" every single time. I reverse engineer jokes. Professional joke writers can not tell the difference the time for it being advanced enough to outshine current writers is only a few years away if you know what and how to ask it.
@@ericclayton9080 Successful comedy writers understand delivery and spend years building a reputation that they leverage to sell tickets, pitch scripts, or land acting gigs. So who is going to recite these jokes or where will they be produced or published? What company, comedian, or actor would risk the ridicule and destruction of their reputation after their peers and the public found out they are not the ones writing the jokes?
This AI stuff makes me so happy that I got into a trade out of high school instead of going off to college. World is getting crazy, and I don't trust it.
Same. As a firefighter, I know no robot can ever replace me. The amount of unknowns and variables and extreme variations in temperatures along with the protection of lives make my job security solid.
ChatGPT is a language model that is mostly meant for dialogue. Anyone that has given it rigorous mathematical prompts can tell you it is not great at calculating a reliable correct answer. I know there are likely other AI models that specialize in advanced math, but I think its safe to say that adept engineers aren't going to be replaced by ChatGPT in the near future. Thanks for the great content!
Moreover, you can easily make it believe that 2+2=5 and it will apologize to you for being wrong on this one. Sleep well, your job is safe. At least for as long as you know what you know and you know what you don't.
Just give it time. I refuse to be naive. This technology is/will only get better. Also, it's not about the technology replacing 100% of human jobs. The point is over time (to be more efficient), companies will need fewer humans to do the work.
Depends on what you consider "near future". I'd say you have around 5 years. Chat GTP is only one form of AI and it can be combined with other forms. And it is new.
This is why I'm trying to force myself to use ChatGPT to help me while coding data pipelines and scripts. Better to know how to use the new tool during the transition period than become simply dead weight.
I wouldn't use anything you get from there in-production. For one, the legality of its training data or outputs hasn't been clarified. For another, it's full of bugs and security problems on par with tutorial or SO code.
@@mandisaw I'm only giving it generalized information and requests and then adapting the responses myself. It's more of practice in learning how it thinks and how to formulate questions for useful responses. I've given nothing away and I never just use anybody else's code without modifying it to fit standards first. This requires that I understand every line. Which I do .
@@johnburr9463 Sounds like a responsible approach! It wasn't meant as a dig - have just been hearing some scary Tales of ChatGPT involving juniors thinking this'll "save them so much time coding".
@@mandisaw Oh I hear that. Short cuts never actually are short. The tool is only as good as the tradesman. And all the other bits of wisdom. But as long as there are young'ens trying to take those shortcuts and if I can manage to choose which new skills are important to learn. I personally will always have a job. If nothing else, folks will hire me to clean up behind the kiddos.
AI doesn't exist. AI implies the ability to self learn which simply isn't there. ChatGPT is basically Google for coders. Chat gpt can not teach itself to create. It relies on existing human knowledge base repositories.
Artists are on the front lines in this fight against AI. I’m speaking as an entertainment art professional and art educator with 20 years of study and 10 years in the field under my belt
Gaining news skills or a college degree is like playing the stock market in regards to AI, outsourcing, give by job to certain visa holders, and getting unforeseen emergent technologies.
There have been a bunch of articles over the last 6 months trying to find a reason for the tech layoffs by firms like Meta, Microsoft, Redit, Twitter etc... all are wrong. The REAL reason is the rise of Chat GPT & it's integration into other software... this is why the heaviest lay offs have been since November 2022 which is when the initial version was launched... then Microsoft bought Chat GPT & integrated it into Teams & MS office... they ironed out some bugs & the lay offs have gone into turbo mode!
Unlikely, there is going to be a huge propagation delay. Only new companies without any compliance overhead could pivot to using it this fast. Most companies will be stuck in their ways until they’re obsolete. More likely, they never needed as many people as they hired.
At first I was terrified by ChatGPT. It seemed like the worst case scenario. However, after thinking it over, you will still need human beings to check the things it generates. We can't take its word. We might end up being a bunch of glorified fact checkers, but there really isn't a way around it. Bugs will always be introduced to a system. Business rules will always change. Regulations will always need to be verified for accuracy. I can't see humans ever falling out of the equation.
Yeah, the part about accountants made me think of fraud cases; a human can have a conscious that objects to cooking the books or can be a whistle-blower.
Everyone thought "outsourcing" was the end of the world a couple of decades ago, yet software engineer shortages are common in the US. Businesses want accountable people, people they can pull into meetings etc... ChatGPT will not replace a single job. It's knowledge base is a web scrape. Google innovated search with their model of relevancy, but could still cause someone to visit multiple google search result links. ChatGPT is just a layer on top of that. It doesn't know how to engineer or program or write or anything. If it became a "writer" it would probably be consigned to the 99% of writers that never get book deals. If it takes all our jobs the world is done anyway. It's a chat bot and some say it's the end of the world for clicks and youtube revenue - what's the point of youtube revenue if this is the end of humanity? Cool creation but not all that great.
The oft-missed question is "HOW MANY people will we need." Say you replace 3 people with an AI and 1 person, that's 2 people who are out of the job, and the economy. Obviously this is a gross oversimplification, but the idea of it is what I'm trying to get it at.
The level of automation we’re seeing and where we’re going, we need to start learning what a society looks like without work. I think there will always be work but not “low level” or enough work to employ the whole population. Society built around work is dying but we’re not allowing people to live without a work contribution to society. How will we find value and meaning and how will we cope as a society when there’s simply no need to work anymore.
I have found studying machine learning that one must find the opportunities where one can. A new job title I have been hearing is "Query Engineer." It is not obvious how to "talk" to these new programs. Natural Language Processing machines like ChatGDP are still not Artificial General Intelligence - yet. And spinoffs like Anthropic are trying to use AI to train AI. So interesting. I am old but I am still going to school to learn this stuff. "Rage, rage..." - I have subscribed to your channel early on and am glad to see it grow. Keep up the great work!
In game dev it's already scary already and not just the AI but the narrative around it. I spent like 30 years learning to draw looking at art everyday so most AI art looks a little effed up to me(tho can be an inspiring ref tool)but for new people the Dunning-Kruger effect comes into play and they think their AI art is amazing. I think AI can be an amazing tool for artists who know why something looks good but the CEOs are going to use it to as you said to reduce their costs with something "good enough" and just getting artists to touch it up. This is not even mentioning the moral aspect of it, the way data training on art works is no different than an AI stealing your voice and speaking mannerisms and mimicking it. When a traditional artist copies work on the other hand they take only what they personally find interesting about it, they have a human filter which makes it impossible for them to copy something thus making something new. I lost my current job because AI was able to do pitch artwork faster than me, my favorite kind of art to make. Automating jobs that are tied to human purpose seems weird but here we are.
Accounting is a tough one. If invoices and documents became standardized, or AI could show it could interpret a wide range of documents then that could absolutely be disruptive. At the moment, I can see AI being used for things like reconciliations. Maybe years in the future companies could shrink the size of their accounting departments, and perhaps that isn't far away, but a company will still need to employ a CPA and a team of accountants to push the buttons and check the results. More importantly, companies will need a staff to interpret the reports and prepare financial statement notes.
So you bring up Civil Engineering which is my field. The amount of decisions, standards, and balancing different stakeholders opinions is most of the job. This is the same as most engineering and a lot of other fields. I think software engineering is actually fairly safe career still. Someone has to work with the AI, and if more of the world is using AI you would need more operators. AI is also limited and I have doubts about its competence for anything beyond small tasks. I’ve used chatgpt to right basic code. I had to then go through and correct about a dozen small mistakes for 50 lines of code. It helped, but I had to go in and manually change it to what I wanted it to be. Also it’s really bad at determining facts and bias management. As long as AI needs to be double checked you’ll still need pilots, engineers, and writers. If you don’t care about quality (like buzzfeed) AI could work without needing too much double checking.
My biggest problem with AI is the lack of morality, ethics, compassion and nuance. There is no arguing or reasoning with a machine. There is no mercy. While AI automation is inevitable I do not think it is something to be celebrated. Those that benefit are the large corporations, while those that will suffer are the ordinary people who will find themselves obsolete in the workplace. Mass AI integration prompts other questions such as: If a machine can replace humans for most of the work that humans used to do, then what do all the humans do? This leads to the obvious follow on questions: If the world can operate efficiently with far fewer humans working, then should we not significantly reduce the number of humans on the planet? If humans are no longer required to work then what do they do? If it makes more sense to have less humans consuming natural resources, then who gets to decide who pro creates? Is it the rich and powerful, who become richer and are the select few that are allowed to breed? Reminds me of the quote from the first Jurassic Park movie by Jeff Goldblum's character (paraphrased); "scientists were so excited about 'if' they could do it, that they never stopped to consider, 'should' they do it."
I don't think that these corporations need to "keep up" with rising salaries. I think they definitely could afford to be much MORE generous, actually. I think once again, corporate greed takes over and the labourers suffer. Capitalism without empathy is pure greed and will collapse upon itself. Once everyone is out of work and suffocating under crippling poverty, you have no one to sell to, and societal structure will collapse. It's quite terrifying. But I've always been a bit neurotic, so let's hope I'm overreacting....
I think what would happen before that is that more people will move outside the U.S and the country will suffer as more people are taking their skills and money outside of the country for cheaper living costs
China already had dental surgery done by machine, without human supervision. The problem is not AI won't be able to do those jobs, the real problem is all professional associations/organizations will try to stop AI. Lawyers and doctors are two high-paid professions, they still hold some level of power, and they will not let AI even start in the area. they will make a lot of excuses. AI could eventually solve the health care problem in the world. But, many doctors might lose their job.
really wish companies would put more effort in replacing the jobs no one wants instead of taking away jobs people aspire to get. If very few people are working nothing matters and no one has money to buy the things they're selling.
I think it's essential to mention AI and robotics are entirely different fields. AI (essentially software) is way ahead of robotics in replacing jobs. For example, a housekeeper would be extremely difficult to replace. The AI, robotics, power, adapting, cost, etc., would be insane. However, jobs that follow pure logical patterns, like accountants, lawyers, software developers, etc. Are at a much higher risk of being replaced. However, if AI can one day code itself, then all bets are off.
You do know humanoid robots with AI software exists right? In reality nobody is from AI robots aren’t a new thing. AI on the other hand gives the robot ability to think for itself which is a scary thought
Do you think it would be a good career choice to go into robotics as an electrical/computer engineer? It'll be pretty difficult for the AI to do everything build into a robot or a machine I suppose and if u work for a company that is all secret information AI will really struggle with that. (Like military stuff and other things)
I have a writing business on the side, and I use A.I. technology to complement my work with writing, editing, and art. The people who come out ahead are the ones who can leverage A.I. technology
I had proof this week that AI won't take my job. I teach at a coding bootcamp. We have had students try to slide through the program with chatGPT, but those students are struggling very hard on using what they learn to make an app. AI is not at a point where it can take in every requirement surrounding a situation and adapt to them.
That is proof that it wont take your job this week. Are you too stupid to understand that technology improves? ChatGPT is not designed primarily for writing code.
The jobs that are most safe are the ones that require ChatGPT AND a human to utilize it. Also, some jobs are outsource immune. Jobs that require onsite personal, anything to do with security, and jobs which AI cannot practically replace are also safe.
I generally find you content helpful, as you typically speak from a position of experience. I would strongly caution you to not engage in rampant speculation about AI-related impact for sectors that you do not have explicit experience in. Needlessly alarming people with boogie-man assumptions is not helpful, regardless of how many clicks it generates. That said - I do enjoy your channel and find it informative.
I've been working closely with AI over the past month, and as a long-time software developer I can tell you that software engineers and coders aren't going away any time soon. I've been using AI to help me generate code, and while this has increased my productivity, the AI is not flawless. Remember it is a machine, it can't think, it can only react, and that reaction usually consists of calculated responses (i.e. guesses) that are usually right, but can sometimes be disastrously wrong. This is a good video and I agree it is important for everyone to start thinking about this new technology. But, rather than asking "Can this take my job?", the real question is: "How do I use this to get better at my job?" AI isn't going to replace coders, writers, lawyers, architects or even recruiters. It is going to make their jobs easier, which is what a good tool is supposed to do. Learn AI, learn how to use it, and be the guy or girl at your company who is ready to run when the CEO decides it's time to embrace the technology.
There are a certain number of jobs, and it is from supply and demand our wages are largely determined. If the supply of jobs is reduced, competition among workers lowers the wages. If the number of potential candidates is increased then wages fall. If the amount of work an individual worker can perform increases, then you need a smaller number of those workers. Every programmer that maintains and documents code that is displaced will now be competing for a smaller pool of jobs. Every company that would need to hire large teams will be able to get that work done with fewer people. If something can make your job easier, it can probably make it less relevant, and less deserving of a high wage.
@@user-nu8in3ey8c You could be right, but you need to consider that companies could keep the same number of workers but will expect more productivity. Maybe that project that takes a month now should take a week. Maybe that one year project now takes a month. Now companies can do in 1 year what use to take several years.
Soon it wont and i think ai will never truly replace all Programming jobs buti also think in 10-30 years, the near future. AI will replace alot of mid tier and most of low tier programming. Your programming AI double phds doing research will still exist. A hundred years plus i think ai will replace every programmer. If ai reaches human level intelligence were it can solve general problems, you could copy it billions of times and then make them work at a problem and cooperate together. I cant even imagine how people will live in 100 years.
For a software developer you do not seem very intelligent, nor knowledgeable about the pace of software development. Look at the improvement in AI over the last year alone.
As someone who's has a lifelong career in EA/Admin Asst/Support roles, ChatGPT really scares me. Much of my roles involved writing creatively for certain things. As well, I have friends in graphic arts, and other computer-related jobs. This will change things in massive ways we can't even see today.
You don't hire pilots for when everything goes right - you hire them for when it all goes wrong. This weekend was the anniversary of the Miracle on the Hudson emergency landing after a bird strike. Autopilot, even most *human* pilots, couldn't have made the judgement call to potentially kill the dozens onboard to save the thousands on the ground. And it was decades of skill+exp, with a hearty dose of blessings, that got the plane down in such a way/location that everyone could be retrieved safely. Love the channel, but please leave the tech to your viewers/recruiting candidates :)
Really interesting and concerning. Not to sound like a Luddite...but I wonder if there is legislation that could or should be introduced to limit the extent to which this is allowed to be employed by companies.
Why the hell do you wanna limit companies' productivity that provides more services for the rest of society? If anything, they deserve more tax cuts for implementing AI features.
Yea, actually most commercial planes today have autoload systems. There's a good chance that if you've flown in the last 2 decades the plane landed itself while the pilots monitored.
It is really not that complicated. Once AI has replaced a certain percentage of jobs, corporations will be more profitable than ever. We simply have to redistribute the wealth generated by our corporations via universal basic income.
In regards to airline pilots, the reason they are in the cockpit is to deal with outside of the box contingencies like birds disabling your plane over NYC. Also, if you MUST have a human in the cockpit for safety, then you need two for redundancy. In terms of your civil engineering scenario, I can see how a drone could do a lot of the surveying, but you would still need some soil work to be done and, having bots do all of the work of building the bridge is still far off into the future. There is just too much manual dexterity involved for robots to do that work currently.
I gave chatGPT some trick questions (something like there are two boxes of cookies with one dozen per box, and I ate a dozen. How many boxes are left? - chatGPT said 1. The answer is 2… because I only ate cookies and boxes are still there lol). Engineering problems are surprisingly complex, a lot of effort goes into identifying problems correctly. While many engineering methods seek to reduce complex problems down to a few sets of equations, most of the time it’s not straightforward to define constraints and requirements to do so.
Engineering, including software dev, also involves as much dealing with humans & interpreting their issues/needs/motivations as with straight tech. Having the AI spit out a basic bridge design is easy - it's something a college student, or clever HS kid, can do. Balancing the competing priorities & constraints of cost, environmental impact, labor-resources, anticipated overrun, actual overrun, and the big one - POLITICS - is not something you can just plug into an equation or data model.
Accounting is more than just crunching the data you have. It's knowing the data you DON'T have, and that's where AI will never replace Accountants. It takes intuition and knowledge of the immediate world that AI doesn't have.
I think AI surgery providers will end up needing to charge a discount at first, until they can prove that the error rates of their surgeries are lower than the average surgeon's.
Ive got the idea but guy dont give a fk what is he talking about, will AI impact the market, oh yes, will it replace people, some yes, some partially, will it do all stuff guy is talkin not in near future
I believe it is very dangerous to be thinking about AI as a autonomous entity. It can only predict what should come next according to its training and programming. It doesn't have any back pedal or safeguard that would warn it about certain situations when discernment is important. ChatGPT was caught giving wrong answers to math equations for example. I don't want to sound as an enemy of AI, in fact I think it is incredibly powerful tool but we have to keep in mind that AI is here to help us, not to do our job.
ChatGPT is no different than any other new technology. Full of hype, and like always, it's "a new technology that will disrupt every industry and will replace humans who do...". I am in the learning and learning technology field, and replacing human interaction with ChatGPT goes completely against what we need the most in our education system, that is, critical thinking skills. It is a great technology, but it never replaces what humans need to properly identify and interpret the content for accuracy and appropriateness. I've been around long enough to easily predict that it's just another gimmick that will start creating problems and then will be put aside in a reactive manner until the next wave of hype comes along. I'm not concerned about that technology replacing humans, I'm concerned about the damage to critical thinking skills that it will do, skills that are already quite unpopular nowadays.
Accountant here. Low hanging fruit roles like accounting clerk, AP clerk will definitely get replaced. The senior or above roles that require more judgement are pretty safe. Not to mention, computer make mistakes too. No CFO will feel safe without a human reviewing the work. Have you seen ERP program completely forget to apply exchange rate? happened at my last company.
@@spicychad55 Good point. Forensic accounting is a difficult task. It requires even more judgment than regular audits. Also, I think Brian does not understand the concept that is segregation of duties. Segregation of duties is a necessary practice in accounting that decreases the likelihood of fraud in an organization because it prevents 1 person from having too much control over the accounting process.
Hey Bryan, What's your take on the future need for agency and corporate recruiters? I was laid off from an agency last week because our largest client pulled back on hiring. I see a lot of turnover in recruitment these past few years. Is it worth pursuing, or time for a career change? Would love to hear your opinion. Thank you!
My job replaced payroll with a company called payroll, now employees are responsible be doing their own payroll. It’s a mess and no human to complain with.
The thing to ask is, if just about everyone's job is taken over by IA and most people are unemployed, who is going to buy all the goods and services that industries sell? Also if most are unemployed, governments won't have enough tax revenue to operate. Looks to me that they entire economy will fail if IA takes over.
As for software engineering, I can definitely see the industry becoming more “senior” and ditching the juniors and mid-levels. Only the very high paying jobs will remain, I already see that happening
That's because companies want the benefit of someone else doing the OTJ training. Except that's short-sighted - if no one hires/trains juniors, who will be your 5yr mid-career hiring pool? My team worries all the time that new-grads don't learn any of the skills needed to replace us, come retirement. There's stuff that's not "sexy", or requires working at scale/in-production, that you just cannot learn on your own, in class, or at a bootcamp. Same applies to offshore contractors, who tend to focus on low-work/fast-turnaround sectors in high demand, leaving a lot of boring-but-necessary software & hardware work underrepresented.
I doubt AI will be able to detect flaws. AI's only as good as programmers can code efficient code into them. AI can't seem to do physical movements so far since robotics still seems to be somewhat primitive to actually outdo human labor. Repetitive digital task definitely seem to be at risk. AIs can't think at the end of the day, they just go off of patterns.
I work as an IT Tech. Nothing too crazy but trying to get certificates for office products. I’m very concerned as it seems the only way to make it in the future is by being on the very high end of each industry.
It depends. What are you doing in the IT? I mean Support is mostly very people focused. And ChatGPT can't erase any Layer8 problem :) That's something someone has to look himself. And for that you need someone. Security? Well... I mean you need more Security dudes with surgery AI and so on. On the high top? Naa... I think you need many people in the IT still and at the end: You can learn anything. I mean it really depends on what you want to do and so on. I didn't do any Office certificate and I don't work with MS for that long anymore - in a few months I will work for a new company and they use mostly Linux. But in a few years, when I'm looking for a job again, I can choose if I want to go with Mac OS, Windows or Linux. I worked for now a few years on Microsoft/Windows and a few years with Linux (Mac OS is Unix based). But I do other certifications. I mean in the IT you need to learn many things and you need to keep up to date. So it's not like you go once to the school and then you're done. You need to do every 1-3 years new certifications in different fields. And that's how it works - but on the other hand you can earn a lot of money ;) That's the price you need to pay for your earnings.
I'm kinda glad that it will in a way. A lot of these work opportunities where about things of really heavy lifting and headaches, I won't miss any old jobs anyway. Time to move on.
The biggest problem with a completely automized economy is just that, the economy. How could you keep commerce in play when only a few people own all factories and services? To me it seem that the economic boundaries are the real show-stoppers for an automized future. Also there are some serious problems with AI like ChatGPT: when they are trained they are dependent on human competence to decide what behavior is good and what is bad. What they hav found out about Chat GPT is that it very often give completely wrong answers since people are not competent enough. This is the convoluted way of saying: shit data in, shit data out:)
The only problem with the idea of Civil Engineering being replaced with AI is liability. Structural Engineers make the big bucks not strictly for what they do but because if that bridge or building collapses and people get injured or die, they take on that liability for being the one who signed off on the building (yep, at the end of the day, your just paying them for a very expensive autograph). Companies would be hesitant to build off plans that weren't atleast backed or approved by a licensed Engineer because of a potential risks and legalities if something goes wrong.
Any career that involves a personal element will more resistant to AI. Extreme examples being upper management, actors, singers, models, athletes etc. The jobs that have been traditionally vulnerable to outsourcing and offshoring will be most at risk.
Lol, you really think AI can't automate acting, singing, and athletics? Those are the easiest to handle with AI. Humans are predictable and easy to entertain. Shit like coding takes actual skill and isn't easy to automate.
@@dwadedunkedkobe people worship celebrities like that, though. It’s not just about doing the job. Imagine if a record label tried swapping someone like Justin Bieber for an Eastern European replica. Not gonna happen as fans wouldn’t support it. However, jobs in engineering are back-office type of jobs that have historically been vulnerable to outsourcing and offshoring.
@@dw4525 Marketing is the key. Do you honestly think that marketing can't be automated? This is the exact reason Tinder and social media is filled with bots and fake followers.
I feel a lot of social science degrees are going to start coming back. I say that because lot of the business degrees such as accounting, finance, operations management, as well as marketing will be digitized. Accounting now pretty much doo all their accounting thru the software anyway.
I bet the same arguments were made when automobiles, farm equipment, and even Excel entered the market. Computer aided design software was disrupted because the idea of a team of drafters was replaced with a guy with a computer. Jobs were lost but new jobs were created. A lot of new jobs. We just got more efficient and productive.
This isn't comparable to industry changes in the past. We are actually getting to the point now where the guy at the computer could actually replace a whole team of drafters. You are going to end up seeing a severe level of diminishing returns on the number of jobs created to replace the number of jobs lost. You may end up losing the 200 jobs and then only need 10 people replace them and help manage the AI.
@@BlackamusJones The thing is all those examples I gave spawned new jobs and industries. With automobiles you have the car and trucking industries. There's new innovations and jobs in the farming industry. CAD has expanded and Excel (and programs like Excel) have found new industries to expand to besides just accounting. Chat GPT and AI is just a tool, like a hammer or screwdriver. You can use it to replace your workforce or you can build something new and create a new workforce.
@@eezyville1704 No, this is not the same thing. Jobs created will be far less than jobs lost. This AI will become better and better and so the need for human labor in of itself will keep decreasing. Future jobs will require far more brain power, and there will be far fewer of them just by the nature of AI and automation taking over human labor in its entirety. This is not at all like replacing horse and buggies with automobiles and being able to take those former horse and buggy / farm workers and put them in factories at a one-to-one ratio and give them all jobs, having them all trained up nice and easy
@@BlackamusJones This is where I disagree with you. I make my conclusions based on what happened in the past with the introduction of new technology. You base yours on your own pessimistic viewpoint. The truth is neither one of us can predict the future but at least I try to base it on something that happened before.
I'm in project management for a software company. There are so many moving parts in regard to engaging internal and external stakeholders, interpreting processes, ideas etc. Not saying ChatGPT can't eventually replace me, but it's going to take several versions to get there. For now, I've been using it to help re-write some emails I draft. I compare what I have to what it gives me and then sometimes I use its response if it's better written. For now, I'm using it as tool to make my job easier vs a vector of fear.
100% and a really great analysis of the coming impacts of AI. AI is going to put so many people out of jobs in the future in basically every industry - this should be very worrying. It's coming quicker than we know (being told). There needs to be some sort of plan in place to reduce the impact on the workforce whether it be regulations on AI to do or even something like Universal Basic Income. I wish we (humanity) would be more careful about what we are creating since there are so many unintended consquences tied to this. Most CEO's and execs don't care about the consequences though as long as AI increase their profits.
Hello Sir, I have a question. When you say that AI could take over your industry, Recruiting, you mention the AI will find candidates. Candidates for what? Which jobs will remain in tact? That's the video we need!
The AI community warned the public for years that this was coming. The public ignored it as "not in my lifetime". Let me be clear: Not a single person starting today in the workforce will see retirement. The concept of humans working to survive is about to become history.
I was watching the channel Alux and they said AI might not replace you but another worker using it might. It might be too early to tell what will happen. Freelance writer channels say they are using AI to do their research and write the first draft.
Jeremy Rifkin published a book in 1995 discussing the end of work. He forecasts the labour market challenges, as your video highlights, but couldn't map it, like with your insights, available today. Great channel here. Nice to see guidelines, here, too.
I don't think the problem is ChatGPT in itself, but rather our inaction in adapting to such technologies. The vision all the futurists of the past had was one where humans no longer had to work in menial jobs and just enjoy life. Everyone's been drinking the grind culture koolaid though, so we've been resistant to change
We're resistant because we see technology improving and the top being the ones who benefit. There's a very reasonable fear of all this AI an tech being adopted with a lot of people being laid off and let to rot
I had 3rd and 5th PRK Laser Eye surgery. Being able to see without glasses is great. Indeed, wages could be messed up and universal income has to exist or people would prefer the afterlife. It just takes people super smart to do it then it's done, automated, AI automated, embrace the results.
Based on data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as of May 2020, the top 20 most common occupations in the United States, ranked by employment, are: Retail salesperson Food preparation and serving worker, including fast food Registered nurse Customer service representative Office clerk, general Cashier Laborer and freight, stock, and material mover, hand Waiter and waitress Janitor and cleaner, except maids and housekeeping cleaners General and operations manager Stock clerk and order filler Heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver Elementary school teacher, except special education Medical and health services manager Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive Maintenance and repair worker, general Accountant and auditor Security guard Software developer, applications Sales representative, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products
No AI is going to impact accounting jobs here in Florida for the next two centuries or so. For companies keep using checks to pay wages and bills like it's 1950s 🙈🙈🙈
The problem with ChatGPT is that it uses the Internet to gather its information and the internet is full of garbage. Yes, it can write some simple paragraphs and scripts. But it doesnt have broad cognition over a range of different types of critical thinking skills. I dont think AI is anywhere close to flying a plane or a truck on the open road with human drivers. The algorithms are not good enough yet. One thing that I think ChatGPT might replace is computer coding because it is relatively straight forward most of the time and follows logic. Are there software programmers here that can speak to this?
Advisor type roles, where customers rely on a human advisor to coach and direct their lives in the right path; such as Insurance Agent, or Financial Planner, etc., might be the last to be automated away. Take insurance for example. Insurance quoting is automated right now but it lacks the intelligence to advise properly for the risk. So you might have a customer with a luxury home, expensive cars, a spouse, kids - All these assets and liability to protect but driving around with state minimum auto coverage because the "automated" quoting platform gave them something less expensive and the customer did understand the risk involved with that decision. There is a human aspect that needs to intervene and coach people "off the ledge" so to speak, with their decisions where AI lacks. Now, I can see in the future AI becoming so smart that it can take all the data the customer inputs come up with a profile, a solution that is logical for the risk. However, being able to persuade, in a good way, is what makes a salesperson so valuable, and able to sell phenomenally. I don't know if AI would ever be as good as a human at persuasion, rapport building, charisma, empathy, compassion, objection handling, etc., - All the human traits that salespeople possess that make them great at what they do. I'm not saying AI won't ever get that intelligent, however now you're talking about AI becoming so human-like that it connects with a human at an emotional, humanistic level, undetectable to the customer. That level of AI is probably over the horizon, but further out. For right now, I see AI "assisting" agents and advisors to get them 90% to their goal, and a human reviews the final decision and advises accordingly. That's what i see responsible companies doing that truly care about the quality of their advice.
A lot of this (automating tasks) has already been true for decades. A.I. is just making it accelerate a little and allowing us to learn and recognize patterns in huge multitudes and really fast. The problem is with human nature, it is slow to adapt to any real scalable reality. I’ve been a computer programmer since the 1980’s (now called a software developer) and they’ve been saying we’d be obsolete in a few years because there would be tools to write our code. Well there were attempts and tools did do some things, but now there are new computer languages that are even more complicated than the ones that were there in the 80’s. So, not saying things have not advanced immensely since then, but a lot of that has been hardware and memory advances, which has allowed A.I. to flourish in the first place.
That'd be "Our career" sir. Automated resume trolling, interviews etc.. You guys take resumes and send them to employers and middle man the back and forth. Very helpful. But if you think software is on the line.. Maybe... but recruiter jobs are absolutely on the line as well. If AI can write code.. it can send some standard "how long have you used Java? 1-5" questions.
My company has given the entire tech support team a 60 day notice. Our whole team is being shut down as our jobs have been outsourced to a different company that is AI related. All our tickets from 15 years ago has been used to train the new AI that will replace us all. The training too less than 4 days. Now We're confused if we move to a different company how long will we be there before they decide to switch as well?
Hey Brian. Long time watcher; first time commenter. I think the accounting point only covers bookkeeping functions. However, when it comes to items such as tax returns, you still need a CPA or JD to sign off as preparer of a return. Also for financial audits of companies, a human still needs to sign off on the audited financials. Unless there’s radical changes in the regulatory agencies governing these, I think those jobs will remain reasonably safe.
Besides regulatory cert, accounting is ultimately about trust, whether it's expressing trustworthiness to investors, banks, or the gov't, or trust that your internal governance really is working. Been in software 20yrs, and I've seen computers go from scientific calculators to the Star Trek "Computer". But people don't trust computers, they trust humans - even on Trek, Sulu drove the ship when shit hit the fan 😅
@@vids595 You misunderstand - Excel catches mistakes. Human accountants & auditors are there to catch criminals. The AI can be silently manipulated/corrupted, the auditors cannot (or at least that's where the trust part comes in).
@@vids595 No, SF writers since before radio & TV could foresee AI-operated vehicles. But they also had the foresight to know that humans are more adaptable to unforeseen situations, and that when it comes to lives, generally humans want to trust other humans, albeit with computer-assistance.
It’s a sketchy, non-proven idea that has the potential to harm people. Senior management will love it. As a productivity tool, I think it could be a good thing. As people replacement, look at it like this: it all sounds good until it malfunctions. Trust your life to a robot? Think of how often you loose Bluetooth connectivity with your vehicle or can’t get cellphone coverage. Good times. Just typing this, my autocorrect has made no less than 10 mistakes. 👍. On a human scale, with billions of layoffs, what happens when funeral homes can’t keep up with suicides? Millions of angry people with time on their hands? That ends well. Millions of people with no income making decisions out of anger - tanks the economy worse than the Great Depression. That short term bump in equity prices gets destroyed by a global depression. Sounds like something private equities & consultants will love. Better get prepared.
One pretty cool science fiction TV show that doesn’t get enough credit is The Outer Limits. It definitely doesn’t get as much attention as The Twilight Zone or Tales from the Crypt, but it’s still great
White collar jobs are the ones that will be lost first. Robotics is another story and robotics lag behind. Plumbers, roofers, framers will be automated last. Architects, lawyers, accountants will be sent to AI first. Anything that can be done with a keyboard and a mouse is at risk. If it involves a hammer or other tools you will be safe for a while longer.
Yes, all our jobs are threatened - lawyers, writer, creatives of any kind and surprisingly - even programmers. This makes me so sad since I have always struggled with getting a job - in my country the salaries are pretty low in the private sector, and when I tried to get a government job I was asked for a bribe equivalent to the salary I would get for the entire year (I didn't have that money, not would I use it to bribe someone if I did). I only managed to work as a freelancer/small business manager for all these years (15). I started studying web development and I learned to make websites and a little programming - I don't know math and I had my first computer at 24 so I know I can't get very far but it was a ray of hope, which is now fading... But hey, at least I know I'm not going to be the only one in this situation.
In transportation, human vs machine error is difficult to quantify; however, we are far more likely to ignore human error than we are machine error. Look at the self-driving vehicle tests. It misses a stop sign and it's front page news, meanwhile, as the journalist was rushing the story back for print they blew through a stop sign (not 100% applicable, but you get my drift). Computers can land jets, but they have tended to be hard on tires. That will change. AI will lead to fewer train accidents. Undoubtedly fewer auto accidents as well. But is it a good thing? Modern society myopically focuses on the death at hand, not the long term implications of that focus -cough, lock downs, cough- so it is coming, whether it is a good thing, or not.
I doubt that software engineering will ever be fully-automated (and I don't wish to say this because it's my career field). For starters, the nature of the work is very non-deterministic (at least from a design or testing standpoint, where every whim can arise), and no technology out there can accurately replicate that intent. The human brain is the father of much chaos after all, and even ChatGPT can still create errors (which isn't surprising for fairly obvious reasons). For instance, ask it how to explain how to do a long multiplication of two numbers - in researching this, I found an example where this failed quite blatantly.
It depends on the industry, but I don't think AI is as great as people make it out to be. It's like the driverless car systems we have - we have the technology to make it better, but it's not cost-effective. The military uses a better sensor system, like inferred, in its driverless vehicles, which works great and even predicts hill climbs, descents, and mines buried. My point is that AI has been around, but business leaders are disconnected from technology, and I think this will create an even bigger disconnect since they are unaware of the risks and ramifications. The same goes for social media's AI, which is programmed to feed off of human addictions. Similar to the Star Trek episode, AI is only as good as the person who programmed it and the information it's given. That's why even the artwork looks very flat, fake-looking, and amateurish, to be honest. In conclusion, it's great to have an AI that can be a better assistant than Siri, but I read an article about Chat GPT writing a history report about a fake figure, which questions the authenticity of the information AI provides. I work in security field so things are about to get instresting now that script kiddies will have the knowledge of black hatters.
Law Enforcement will be impacted by it as will Private Security however AI will not replace people in applying the role. They will need boots on the ground so to speak to enforce regulations. When AI and robotics come together, then that is a different topic of discussion. Regardless with automation, there will be niche trades that will still require people. Maintenance jobs are one of those niches. Military, Piloting, certain engineering specialities, food service, energy/fuel jobs, certain retail industries will be severely impacted.
The long term effects of chatgpt worry me. Lower skilled workers will slowly disappear, leaving the managers to guide the chatbots. Which works until it's time to replace the managers. If lower skilled workers are not trained, groomed and developed to advance into managerial roles, there won't be anyone qualified to take over when the jobs open up. Someone with experience will always need to decide what to do and whether we should do it while the computers are making things happen.
This is, unfortunately, familiar. Each industrial revolution starts the same. With each wave, the needed workforce would be less and less. Would this be the start of a new society where humankind would be freed from labor, or would this lead to a dystopian future? As things stand, I can only say that Marx was right: a crisis is coming.
If someone or something can do my job better or cheaper, I'm game. My software job relies on using software to automate mundane processes. I go until I cannot and then I do something else. Referencing the airline example provided out of the gate on this video, no one needs a human pilot with experience when things track according to previously established norms. Everyone on the plane will pay top dollar for a human pilot onboard when the parameters of the flight move outside of the expected boundaries and the software begins to divide by zero.
I believe the market will shift and increase the demand for highly skilled professionals in using AI tools, as it helps to reduce time, but no matter how useful these AI tools are, you still need humans to maintain, optimize, and even properly use them. We would all have to adapt due to the cyclical nature of humans and technology. It is not the first time in human history that some jobs will be eliminated, but this will open the door for new, upcoming jobs that will be in high demand.
A modern airliner can operate the entire flight by automated controls. These controls are used on nearly every flight. To illustrate the problem: the FAA requires 3 take off and landings by hand control every 3 months. Often pilots must be reminded to get these take off and landings in before losing legal qualification. Yes, AI is already here...
Actually aeroplanes can already land with the automated system enacted, and have done successfully now for a few years, the talks and strategies to, have already been entered into to discuss single pilot control. The only thing presently stopping this being enacted is developing the verification of pre-flight takeoff and landing procedures. The structural pre inspection can, and will be done by robotic lasers, the can scan an external structure far more accurately and effectively than the human eye.
It is a bit scary I'm in accounting and I study my arse off getting all these qualifcations to one day rise to the top, and i do think it would suck if as soon as I was at that elvel I will be replaced by AI, but well we don't know what the future holds, and in theory I think any technical job could be replaced by AI, really the only way not to be effected is to be the boss yourself, and I don't have any startup ideas, so many people will be in the same boat so alls I can do is ride it out and see what it brings.
I really think people give AI more credit then it deserves. How long have we had self serve checkouts for now in supermarkets? They still need to be operated by staff as the damn things don't work properly and sometimes it takes longer using one of them then it would to go through a checkout! Yeah, it can reduce staffing costs but it just puts more pressure on employees as they are constantly having to sort them out and they are having to do twice the work load with reduced staff which results in people finding new jobs. Automated calls...how frustrating is it trying to talk to that machine that doesn't hear half of what u say correcrly and u end up just putting the phone down! Even facial recognition technology isn't as good as what they make out, it has made some pretty big mistakes and cost people their livelihoods only to be proven later on down the line that it wasn't the person who they were trying to accuse of a crime. People need to stop calling it AI and call it what it is...machine learning. Yeah, they can showcase it to us and manipulate it so it looks like its intelligent but it only knows what it has been programmed to learn. They have been telling us for decades that technology will eventually take over. And im talking way back in the 1920's/30's. Thats not to say that technology hasn't improved things, cos it has, but CEO's will find out just how much people are needed if they were ever to solely rely on 'AI'. Don't be fooled into believing that its better then humans, cos it really isn't.
AI may be great at executing specific functions as programmed, but it won’t be able to replace human judgment or artistic interpretation. It might be able to render an architectural design but it won’t be able to understand the nuance of artistic human understanding that an architect can interpret from a client. It might be able to perform a complex surgery (it already does) but it can’t be trusted to make complex ethical decisions when responding to a crisis in the OR. And the ethical question is one that applies to countless industries- legal, finance, healthcare, etc. Ethics and judgment can’t be programmed because there is no consistently right answer.
I'm an insurance underwriter and my job is definitely at risk. Any business that is starting to develop online solutions or ways of shortening the task itself using online applications is at risk.
