It's Over: The Rolex Watch Boom is Done 

The rolex boom killed any desire for me to own a rolex. I don't know about any other collectors out there but the hassle and inflated prices on all the modern rolex pieces caused me to look elsewhere for cool pieces to add to the collection. Vintage ap, vc, pp, and even breguet have tons more value than a rolex in my personal opinion. This boom opened my eyes really to how little I actually desire a rolex at this point.

Despite the hype and demand for Rolex, I think there was some brand damage done. A lot of people, including myself, experienced a poor customer experience in. Rolex Ad. I bought two Omegas in last few years, with a pleasant experience. I'm finding it difficult to go back to Rolex.

Good. Hope some douchey people have been left out of pocket and put off the hobby and left the field for people genuinely into the hobby.

John is a collector and a dealer so he usually speaks as an insider. You might say this is “the final nail in the coffin” confirming that Rolex prices are trending down/softening. First the RU-vidr from Miami noticed this trend 2 years ago, then the grey dealer from London about a month ago admitted the downward trend, then the guy from Japan, and now John. This is great news for collectors. The flippers & “investors” are pulling out of the market. The final 2 dominos that need to fall are the neo-grey dealers who entered the market when prices were booming need to lower their prices or leave the business, and of course, the ADs have to start to fill their empty cases and start to treat new customers right! Great job John P!

Rolex will always be #1 from marketing and brand identification alone. Still nowhere near an artisanal brand and that’s where my loyalties lie. Rolex is way too mass-produced for the baggage that comes along with it.

I don’t think there is any chance of Rolex slowing down. I’ve had a GMT on my wrist for 55 yrs. That’s right. Well before you were born. I hope your right. Because I’m waiting for a Daytona SS. Having bought a sub, Pepsi from my AD. So honestly it won’t be much of a wait. A lot more Daytonas are trickling in. What has really ruined it is the word investment. I didn’t buy a new sub and Pepsi for an investment.

Rolex let this hyper demand go too long without an answer & have damaged their relationships with enthusiast.

The day a Hulk is back down to $15k I"ll believe the boom is over.

So many people bought watches bc they thought they could not lose money. All those people are now largely holding on hoping it comes back. Once they start cutting losses this thing will really crash.

I don't know about that. Prices for top Rolex Sports Models are still pretty high and trading double retail in some cases. Also, you still can't walk into a Rolex AD and get the watch you want. Until the price gets closer to retail, then i'll believe it.

You buy a rolex because you love it. It is not an investment...its a luxury item.

As a rule, by the time the general interest media latch on to a hot "investment" trend, it's usually past time to get out of the market. Flipping watches or flipping houses has ups and downs and the media are normally late to the party.

The “boom” isn’t over yet. As a matter of fact, I personally have not seen any price drops. Maybe they have dropped, but very very slightly (IMO). I’m still being told by various AD’s that the wait list for a Sub Date is 3-4 years. Gray market price is still greedily high.

Until you can buy your desired watch at the A.D without a crazy wait time other than a few rare pieces the market has not fully corrected I think we will see A.Ds offering up many models this time next year when we enter the lows of this recession

Breitling aftermarket are nuts. For a b01 42 u can get up to over 40%......

I'm still... never, ever buying anything for more than the manufacturer is asking for the product new (when a product is currently being produced). Every market in history that has superseded the price of a currently running product, has quickly crashed (relatively). So intrinsically the businesses who gamble with the timing of these phenomena are "fly-by-night" and/or "get rich quick" operations, with whom I have no interest in doing business. Delray has proven to me to be an honest trader of timepieces.

Good for buyers. About time.

I just bought a silver dial Overseas gen 3 for 21K lightly used. Pretty happy with the purchase considering that same watch was well above $35,000 just a year ago. It’s been on the top of my list for years, but I couldn’t afford to pay premium on it.

A little disappointed - was expecting to see some examples, stats not just chatter among industry insiders. Because as far as I can tell on the public, non- membership sites, after the drawdown that happened 3-4 mo ago, current ref SS Rolex sport watches have stabilized and dealers aren’t willing to even give a 3% discount for paying w bank transfer instead of cc. Unless the piece is really beaten up and abused, then it’s distressed priced. Last night’s BTC surge may not help.

Big boom yes but I don’t think you could go at the AD and grab an airking even now lol.

As long as corruption, money laundering, social status exists Rolex boom and value will hold.

The boom is definitely over. But I’ll still purchase from my ad in the future. I just purchased a batgirl this year, so I’m good for a couple of years at least.

most hot Rolex models have stabilised, over rrp

Rolex has is and will be THE WATCH that everyone wants, we tend to judge them by what happened the last two years, which has nothing to do with them! High demand a flippers wanting to make quick money and now see that it's getting to an end and want you to buy something else where they can make a higher profit. Owning a rolex its pure enjoyment and thats it, get one now that the prices are lower because they will rise as they have for the last 50 Years

Like a good friend of mine says, the wheel always turns full circle

If you want to buy a watch, it seems to be a good thing that prices are decreasing.

The only people who lost money are those who paid 2x or 3x for those demand pieces ...how ridiculous was that.

The Rolex market is still strong for people who buy at retail. Maybe its over for grey market dealers but its great for someone like me. I keep my watches but if i chose to sell id get my money back after years of enjoyment. Rolex still the safest watch to buy. I love Omega for example but id only ever buy used because you lose a fortune walking out the door

Amazing! I've noticed this downward trend as well. Great news 👏

I picked up a 14060m in very good condition for 9600 CAD before taxes recently. There's a lot of great deals on older watches absolutely.

I think it’s time to buy that vintage Rolex you always wanted.. The GMT’S prices are now more in line with what value the watch actually possesses.. IMHO

You need to consider the difference between mean and median. The “average” net worth is going to be skewed by the very few ultra millionaires and billionaires. The average person is far from being a millionaire. The same article says the median is more like $192,000 which is far more believable. Only 9% of Americans have a net worth of a million or more.

15 minutes of talking about nothing

Oisin Omally just died a little inside because of this “doom and gloom.”

Rolex done 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

John, just wanted to say that your delivery has drastically improved. I remember almost a year ago I gave you some constructive feedback because I saw the potential in you and MAN , great job on improving your presentation and delivery skills. You have really honed your ability to convey a message. We are humans and we will have human mannerisms with quirks but man, i really love your clear, thoughtful, and to the point style.

how can it be done if you cannot find an unworn 2023 sub full set for under $14,700 ?

Amazing news, I had a really nice experience at an AD the other day. Bonded with the saleswoman over Rolex history and vintage watches, and I put myself down for the green GMT. Told her it was to commemorate a special moment and she emailed me yesterday to tell me she sent a request to Rolex for the watch, and that I wouldn't have to accept it when it came in. I've heard of people having terrible experiences but I didn't. I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't be too long before I get the call. I'd never pay over retail and I'm not a flipper. If the watch comes, it comes. I didn't get the sense that she was lying to me and she didn't try to sell me anything else. I'm aware it's not an easy watch to get but the hype isn't as much as it was a year ago, so who knows?

I bought my Sub Date ceramic on 2014. I sold it on 2020. Ha. Make some money.. I will get a GMT master 2.. But I’m still waiting for the right time to go in.. Or maybe at retail price. No rush.. It’s just a Mechanical watch. It’s only a Wants For me, Not a Needs for me in life!😇

If you want a Rolex, expect to pay at least 50x more of it's price because of flippers and "investors". Rolex knows that ordinary people cannot get the watch for the AD price, because flippers and "investors" are all on the list - they buy and resell watches making them impossible for ordinary people to buy. So basically if you want to be on that list you need to spend AT LEAST 50k$ for the watches before they can put your name on list for Submariner or Daytona or whatever. Rolex knew this perfectly but didn't bothered to do anything about it! That is why we got a watch people own in a box with all the papers and they just look at it because it is an investment and not a watch per se! Market falling down? Nope by a long shot. For as long as there are ques of people waiting to go to flippers to buy Rolex watches for 50x the price, the market is stable. And trust me there is plenty of people wanting to buy such a watch for even the triple the price. So nah, Rolex is all good.

I wore my Seadweller 4000 every day since 1084. Unfortunately a few weeks ago I it when I fell and the sapphire cracked, but I cannot afford a new sapphire at current prices which is more than my watch cost in 1984. You will never say that the watch is 50 years old.

I'm waiting to get a sub for close to retail. It's getting there. I just want to own one.

Imagine watches costing less it’s shocking I got a a watch that tells the time for £49 a Casio g shock it’s amazing. Time 24 hours a day.

I really hope the AD’s and grey market dealers have to sell at deep discounts under msrp after taking advantage of consumers the last several years.

Second hand prices will continue dropping in 2024/2025 and stabilising after. Upward trend from 2030….

Great content as always! If you remove the spike in prices, do you believe watches are appreciating at the rate you would expect for the Big 3?

I love my datejust.

It’s just a correction… stop pretending / hoping it’s finished for all. Wait for interest rates to decrease and the trend will go back up.

How many times are u gonna repeat the same thing ? 14k for a Daytona Now 28 k that’s not dead! Just don’t buy Rollie on the secondary… market If no one wants them like you state … stay on the list and get your Rollie …😅works for me.

Not true. As evidenced from these commenters here who all feel “lucky” to be able to buy a Rolex for only a few thousand dollars more than MSRP and wait a year or better. Rolex has these buyers by the balls. They’re the same people who bought Chrysler minivans in 1984 for $5k over MSRP and are the first in line to buy a new Toyota/Lexus for $25k over MSRP with no date of delivery or options in sight.

I get a lot of grief online for saying id never buy a sub, speedy as they are too common. i prefer to be unique . Prefer brands like GO, sinn, Nomos . Quality and unlikely to see someone else wearing the brand nevermind the same model. Also i like the idea most normal people dont know what you are wearing why attract gold diggers/muggers if you dont have to.

I’m waiting for an Air King.

Watches sinking like the housing market.👎🏾

the bottom is still a year away

Not so much, IMO. Good luck finding an AD with a GMT II Pepsi.

Wait, is that a Anthony Farrer prison haircut that you are sporting?

Solid commentary as usual and spot on.

In 2017, the Apple Watch overtook Rolex as the number one watch in the world. Rolex watches are over-valued. In terms of quality to price ratio, there are other brands that offer equal or even better quality for a lot less. Stripped of all the history, design and marketing, its only function is to tell time. And your cellphone does that better and more accurately.

These videos/ opinions are what creates negativity

Not at all !!! Rolex and luxury is never over. :)

it is ironic. rolex made themselves loose customers by witholding their products to said customers.

Men's Rolex watches are still a scam. Tell you why women's Rolex's are being sold at 1/4 the price of men's Rolex? C'mon, 36mm to 40mm is 4 times the price?

I still don't get why Rolex is such a big deal it's no different then any other watch that I own and I have lots of watches from different brands. My favorite watch is a Seiko that I purchased for 1 hundred bucks 10 years ago its my daily wear watch and it looks great too.

Why are these gray market dealers still asking me to pay 1800- 2800 k above retail for black and white dial date just. What a joke. 😅

You're wearing one of my favorite watches EVER

Over the past three weeks on vacation traveling to different countries I’ve visited eight different rolex boutiques. All of them basically had nothing for sale… in the range of 0 to 3 watches I would say still very hard to get anything desirable and will be for a while. And Most of those 0 to 3 were Lady datejust.

It's dangerous taking an average when there's so many extremely high outliers in the US as in multi billionaires, there are approx 240k US UHNWI - classified as 30m USD net worth and over, if all at 30m and divided out equally it would make 7.2m millionaires, it's much safer to take median which is about 750k as about 8.8% of the US population are millionaires with an average of 2.2m USD.

Just fantastic truthful video John. Thank you.

I don't like predicators. The world is ending? Maybe, maybe not, but for sure it wont stop me to wear something nice on the wrist ;)

Rolex is over-saturated. Especially the Submariner. Everybody makes Submariners clones and copies. The look is way overblown. I like vintage watches, especially Omega . Many of these watches are unique-looking and are very reliable. I own several. I also own a Green Alpinist and my Rolex clone the $49.00 two-tone 38mm blue Invicta. It is an accurate watch. My next watch is a Nivada Gretchen Anartic. I have a yen for a Vacheron Constantin watch. To me Rolex especially the Submariner is way overblown. I owned in the 1980s a Rolex Submariner. In that time period it was a watch that was good but not overhyped. If the public turns on Rolex, and I think they are, Rolex may need to reboot with a drastic new line of watches. Rolex is very stale and overpriced.

in market to pull trigger on a Rollie & watchin cooling off...tho out of curiosity been checkin "Grand Seiko " - the more u lookin at a "GS" so freakin. appealing ....but Tudor black bay a boring sensible bargain for everyday... otherwise "Omega" camp has the "Ploprof" 🔥

The rolex super clones has become too good. That pisses off the owners of the gens.

No one has any money to buy watches at this time,crazy rates and stocks are doing horrible, wait until the rates soften people will go crazy on housing, cars, watches etc it’s definitely a cycle.

Used Rolex prices need to come down below AD retail price. Why would I invest in a Rolex when I can get between 5% and 9% for my cash in a CD? Rolex is not an investment, it is a luxury item which may or may not fetch more than it's purchase price.

The steel Daytona for 24-25k? Are you serious unless is just watch without box and papers and watch well bitten up.

Could you do a video of AP or PP watches that fall into the $25-35k range? I registered interest for my first PM Rolex ( YG Daytona on Oysterflex) and it makes you wonder if you get to the $35k mark, can you realistically go upstream and get a nice pre-owned AP or PP for this price? Thanks for the video!

I’m surprised where pp5990 is now

Steel Subs/GMTs/Daytonas very much in demand. Presidiums metal Rolex and non sports Rolex more or less lost some steam.

unbelievable!

I enjoy listening to your take on watches and the market. It's hard to believe you're a business partner with Federico, his arrogant, egotistical personality is in stark contrast to your vibe. Look forward to listening to your take going forward.

To assume that those who love watches but decided to sit out during the irrational times would start buying just because the prices have come down would be really foolish at best . These people are smelling blood. They will enter only when there’s a big discount. If not, they will continue to live without these watches they are very used to it and probably happy wearing Apple Watch

Im sorry, even though im not a Rolex fan, i think this video is more click bait than fact... Rolex's are still the only true investment watch and go to watch for most average weathy non enthusiasts looking for a status symbol or graduation/wedding gift or what not. I do agree though that ive noticed a growing disdain for the brand among enthusiasts because theyir customer service has rubbed so many people the wrong way abd theyve come out with some trully awful stuff like that emogi one that seems was originally designed for autism awareness.

Im so glad i bought my 114060 at the AD in 2019 don't regret it one bit 👌.

This is the bottom. Watch people don't understand monetary systems. Hard assets will become a store of value in the coming inflation 👍🏻

Great info John!

I’d get a Rolex but the average wrist watcher wouldn’t know the real from the fake.. they priced themselves out of a massive market and their customer service I’ve heard is really bad. Can’t find parts etc. I’m a vintage Heuer collector and I’ll stick with that brand.

Thank fuk for that. Nice watches but way too overrated

Finally, I can go to the store and buy the current production models.

The Rolex falsified hype made me really focus in contributing to their demise. Before any haters previously owned 5 steel rolex's now treated like a second rate citizen lol

Rolex watches are done .. think you added boom there which is extra . The way the AD treated end customers was shit and hope this brand never recovers from COVID and what it became

Rolex Buble has burst

This is the perfect storm that actual enthusiasts (as opposed to newbie speculators) have been waiting for. Rolex dramatically increasing production capacity, Rolex taking a huge position in retail, and jaded/burned crypto kids dumping their holdings. I might actually buy back in to Rolex next year.

As a decades long Rolex owner(not a collector) I am amazed and disgusted by the folly and tulipmania of prices for status symbol watches like Rolex and PP ! So much so that IMHO it's become a 'cliche' to wear one and be associated with tatted up ex-cons dealing in Rolex and or gang bangers and youtube dorks bragging about their rolex collections! People today are sheep!

The market is now for wearers not investors, great news for us wearers

Buy a Super Clone for a $1000 and invest the rest. You need experts with a microscope to tell the difference. Save Your $$ .

Are you guys laying off staff as well?

Careful with the grey market and super clones. They are everywhere.

A friend told me that Walmart was selling Rolex. So yeah, it’s going down.

It’s in free fall only no ones buying not even dealers

Good.....they are over priced for the most part anyways.