John Mearsheimer: Will Israel and Ukraine derail the US pivot to Asia 

Rational? How? Explain to me, since your hero never does, how NATO expansion some how encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine, let alone that Putin has no interest in conquering Ukraine.

mostly rational. he's dying on the hill of "russian's never meant to conquer Ukraine" copium all because they sent *only* 190k combat troops in. America conquered all of Iraq with 200k combat troops, and there is no reason to believe Putin didn't think he'd be able to do the same. If the northern Kyiv front was just a feint, or some sort of "locking" position to keep UA occupied, they would not have even had to send the troops in. They could have easily just did minor incursions while shooting missiles from Belarus and that would have been plenty to keep Ukraine from committing more forces to the East. Instead, Russia lost thousands of men and material, in addition to their elite VDV brigade getting decimated in Hostomel, not to mention the infamous 40 mile convoy, as well as sending in special forces to try to assassinate Zelensky, it's pretty damn obvious they intended to conquer the country through shock and awe. Not to mention, Russia did not even need troops in the north. They could have sent those troops in through the East on a narrower front and easily been victorious in the East anyways. They bit off more than they could chew and they thought they could conquer the country. None of their actions have suggested otherwise. If the only objective was just to conquer the eastern part, they would have just sent those northern troops in through the East instead. Any other conclusion is just mental gymnastics copium.

not to mention success would actually have been *easier* if they just used missile attacks from the north and kept a division or so troops ready but not engaged at the border. Because that would have incentivized Ukraine to simply cede the Eastern territory for fear that the threat from the North could try to come and take the whole thing. Ceding eastern territory would have been a de-escalatory incentive for Ukraine because they wouldn't want to risk being entirely enveloped and conquered. Morale to defend the east would have been low in the UA if Putin kept some of his cards hidden. Instead, they tried to take the whole country which backed the dog into a corner in a battle for survival which is why Ukraine overperformed in the initial stages of the war. If they had thought Putin only wanted the East they probably would have just ceded it to him. The northern front was clearly not a diversionary attack, it was a hail mary with the intention of conquering the capital and thus the country. Mearsheimer is trying to retroactively bend the history to suit his preconceived notions, that Russia had always only wanted the Eastern part of Ukraine. He is completely closed off to the idea that Russia thought they could pull off a 2003 Iraq Invasion level of success despite all evidence being overwhelming that that is in fact what they tried to do.

@@Charles-pf7zy Hmm..seems to me that scenario is how the West would have thought and what the West would have done. Russia is not the West. I believe incentives are different, tactics are different, goals are not the same the West would have in the same circumstances.

​ @oswarz I have enough respect for the Russian Officers to know they wouldn't be stupid enough to send so many men and material to die just for a feint. There have been many feints in history. The MEU during the Gulf War for example, was good enough to tie up a significant amount of Iraqi forces, and they never even landed. Threatening Ukraine with troops and missiles on the Belarussian border would have been enough to coerce the Ukrainians to give up the Eastern regions. In that scenario, Biden would have begged for a ceasefire in order to not potentially lose all of Ukraine. Only after the failed assault on Kyiv did NATO realize they had a chance to repel the invasion and that's when the mass armaments came in. I don't even blame Russia for thinking they could take Kyiv. All the UAF past performances and intel showed they should have folded. America has made many many similarly wrong judgement calls too. John Mearsheimer in the past has said he did not believe Russia wanted all of Ukraine. John is also correct about most things, so he is not used to being wrong. That is why he is performing mental gymnastics to claim his evaluation of Putin was flawless. It's okay. We are all wrong sometimes. Even experts.@@oswarz

And also kudos to him for debunking all the Western myths surrounding the supposed Palestinian refusal to negotiate.

Except he's wrong.

​@@nataliedoyle4701They're not myths.

@@toby9999 That's for historians to say.

​​@@nataliedoyle4701Yeah, and I'm also saying it. I'm old enough to remember them refusing peace.

He's the head of a think tank. So donors play a big part in his neutrality. For example, He completely overlooked the rabid fanatics in the Israeli government.

@@davidclayton.1511Agree totally. Israel is also bent on totally destroying Palestine and eradicating every Palestinian out of their homeland and replacing them with Israeli Jews. There is never a second that this interviewer stop to think of this.

@@GaaraNous he knows. He can't say it out loud. The zionists are quite influential in Australia.

Exactly. Israel wants a Greater Israel, always has, always will. And they will drag the U.S into this as well it's allies.

The motivation is that that support is quickly drying up.

You're just advocating Chinese imperialism, minion.

exactly

That's correct

spot on

They can't do anything because they and Canadians are still a colony of the UK. Just like Ireland, Scotland and others still have the UK boot on their necks with the USA backing.

Wow, I didn't realize the Camp David Talks broke apart over such trivial disagreements.

@@justingoretoy1628 why would that be trivial? Seems an impossible gap to bridge I’d say, the idea of another 4 million Palestinians (+) returning home to the region would obviously be upsetting to Israel and a red line for Palestinians. Arafat should have just signed the deal though and then turned a blind eye to people returning.

@@andy_ppp This wasn't undone, it wasn't an agreement torn apart, not even a disagreement over something like "Israel has to give up their nukes, can't have more than 6,000 active duty personnel" or anything like that. Yeah Israel wouldn't be happy about that, but that's why it's a compromise. To me that seems like an easily negotiable issue.

@@justingoretoy1628the Israelis and Palestinians obviously disagreed with you at the time… maybe they know where their red lines are better than you do.

That's crazy, just another proof Israeli so selfish in their policy towards this conflicts.

Exactly!

The west's hypocritical stance is that the terrorist state of Israel may wage brutal war on Palestinians, but Palestinians cannot wage war on Israel. Hence, any attack by Palestinians on Israel is by US empire and western definition terrorism. The likely explanation for this blatant bias is racism. The brown Palestinians has been called animals by Israeli leaders, apparently with the silent approval of the west. On the other hand, every time Israel is mentioned you'd think of white people as this is the image presented to the world. The Palestinians have every right to wage war on Israel to free themselves from the brutal colonialism and apartheid under the terrorist state of Israel.

The US is trying to solve its economic problems by military means. This is stupid. Yet, the entire west and Australia agree with this idiocy. It's like trying to solve astronomical problems using astrology.

❤love your comment

If one considers US and China to be the only real superpowers in the geopolitical domain (not military not economic but a combination of the two). Say China = 0.8 x USA & Europe = 0.5 x USA & Russia = 0 5 x USA. Then if the alignment is US + Europe versus China + Russia That amounts to 1 + 0.5 vs 0.8 + 0.5 1.5 vs 1.3 No clear edge But if the alignment is US + Europe + China versus Russia That amounts to 1 + 0.5 + 0.5 vs 0.8 Or 2 vs 0.8 An isolated China would have been a non-starter. But the foolishness of the US neocons in targeting Russia through continuous provocations and aggressive posturings and forcing them into Chinese hands..This is beyond comprehension and crosses all bounds.

Ozzy bro still thinks ukrops are winning

The way he lays things out is incredible. We get to follow his logic step by step.

They settled on lands vacated by the Isralites after the Isralites were expelled by the Roman Empire. What more is there to know?

The contrast between Tom and his guest couldn’t be starker. One has deep knowledge of the issue and very rational in his thinking the other is Tom.

Sounds clueless. Has absolutely zero knowledgeable of the situation

​@@jamesng7320Can you give us historical evidence outside of the bible for this? Did the Romans expel all citizens in that land? Because I do know the claim is that there were people living there before the Jews. And even if we go with your fancy, how old is Australia, America etc? Indigenous people of these lands have factual and much more recent arguments for the right to their lands. Would you agree that means they have the right to kick you and your out of your homes, towns and villages? That makes much more sense than the Israeli claim - Indigenous people were the first and only inhabitants of Australia, their claims are backed by science and it's recent history. The Zionist claims are nonsensical and they are facing a native population point blank refuse to being disconnected from the land, their culture and identity

I am an Australian, I don't know anyone who thinks Ukraine is winning, or anyone who believes that the Russians started the war. As a UK citizen, how do you feel about your government being a party to overthrowing the legitimate Ukrainian President, arming and training the Nazi Regime which killed over 14,000 civilians in the Donbass over eight years, for the sin of speaking Russian?

@@BrettHar123 Fair point, I too am Australian, but Australia has been sending arms to Ukraine too, and has, under both parties, been fully behind the US and UK agenda at every turn. @peterdefreitas5936 was speaking from experience of UK also doing what the US dictates.

@@BrettHar123 @peterdefreitas5936 did sound like a PoMpous oily tick in how he commented tho ....🤣🤣😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

It doesn't matter whether Ukraine wins or not. After the war, it is clear that Ukraine's sluggish economy can not provide jobs for these skilled soldiers. In order to make a living, they will become the cheapest mercenaries and then die in Israel, Africa, Korea and Taiwan. This is a sad prediction and I hope it will not come true.

@@mikeevans7532 I don't think there are many "skilled soldiers" remaining on the Ukrainian side. They have gone through three armies. Each less capable and trained as the last.

Switzer would do well to reduce his intake of "traditional" media and seek more independent sources. Corporate media is there to manipulate your perceptions and attitudes, not to inform you.

Scott Morrison was one of those top mad-dogs. China-Australia relationship started to improve the moment ScoMo got booted out of the prime minister office.

Look at it this way - The USA LOST a war to the North Vietnamese with the FALL OF Saigon (now ho-Chi-Minh City) on April 27, 1976, and LOST another war to the Taliban (formerly the Mujahedeen FREEDOM FIGHTERS) in Afghanistan (aka the graveyard of empires) two years ago with the FALL OF Kabul on August 15, 2021. Do you all think AUKUS, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea would want to get involved in another US led war in Asia ??? This pending conflict between the USA and China is NOT only because of Taiwan, but this as well - ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-vzf4-bMXNhY.html&ab_channel=WahLaoEh%21Singapore Also, the US lead unipolar world is DEAD now, with Beijing's Multipolar world and BRICS is taking over from those warmongering neocon LOSERS in DC now. Also, do you all remember that the late Ho Chi-Minh once called the USA a Paper Tiger ??? Also, WAR no longer works anymore, since the ones being attacked by the US, UK, EU & NATO are FIGHTING BACK now!!! THIW's.

China doesn't send bombers to cruise off the coast of California

Well Nixon did start the whole madman diplomacy

@@crowrequiem3934 You are somewhat correct about Nixon. This madman diplomacy started after the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1965 when then POTUS Lyndon B Johnson decided to escalate the situation rather than have dialogue and diplomacy with the North Vietnamese to resolve same. The same incident happened in 1968 with the USS Pueblo, and the infamous 1967 USS Liberty incident as well.

🎉

most Americans dont know about it 🤣🤣🤣

48:31 48:31

His bs theories are theoretical justifications for big power imperialism.

😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

There is no doubt this is paid for by pro Israel lobby it is not an honest discussion. Mearsheimer attempts to push back against the hysterical host but he is not being truthful

this host is so comically biased in favor of israel

@@Western_DeclineAnd Ukraine. Nobody who follows this conflict objectively and gets their news from more diverse sources than Western mainstream media (which just repeats what Western governments say) believes Ukraine is winning. The host places so much attention on the fact that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is rebasing with 90% of its ships intact to a different port to avoid constant harassment by drones while omitting the fact that Ukraine doesn’t even have a navy anymore. The Russian Navy was designed to attack surface combat groups, of which Ukraine has none of. The only role the Russian Black Sea Fleet plays today is a missile launch platform, but the Kalibr cruise missile has a 2,000 km range, that’s just about far enough to reach London from Crimea, rebasing 150 km to the east will not change a thing, except make the fleet harder to strike. He also cites the Ukrainian claim that it struck the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but apparently he doesn’t know the building was not in use at the time since important meetings during wartime take place in bunkers, not 19th century structures undergoing renovations, and the officers Ukraine claimed to have killed have since been seen in other meetings. All that taken together tells me that while the host may be honest, he just accepts the analysis of the situation from less-than-honest talking heads like Petraeus without thinking for himself, and relies solely on the statements of Western governments or Ukraine, paying no attention to any contrary information.

heading that way. Australia should be neutral but have an army etc

You are wise. Professor Mearsheimer is rational but he is still a US professor...

Australian government and UK have always been biggest US puppets.

just as Ukraine should be neutral, which is all Putin requested of them. @@jameswebber2943

Listen, in not a USA supporter or even from the US, but Australia has to choose between being a US satellite and a Chinese satellite, and its undestandable why they would go with the country they share a language and institutions with, as well as military cooperation. I wish every country would be able to stand on their own but we dont really live in that world.

It's neither vengeful nor archaic. It's the age-old strategy of the colonialists against the locals. Dispossess, enslave, kill, claim to be the victim.

From an American nationalist POV.

@@229andymon Not at all. He is anti-war and anti-neocon and neolib.

@@alecfoster4413In an interview he was asked if he would advocate US military intervention should China invade Taiwan. He said yes. That doesn’t spell anti war to me. As for the Ukraine war, he’s against that because he reckons the US needs to bring Russia into a US led anti China alliance, I’m not convinced it’s because he’s anti war. He also wants to see the global US hegemony continuing. He’s a clever man and a good man, but he’s no dove.

@@229andymon Being against China invading Taiwan IS anti-war. But that's kind of moot as China will not invade Taiwan. That is a contrived neocon talking point. But you are correct; he's not anti-war per se. I was not clear and stand corrected on that point. He is anti-interventionist where America's interests are not involved and he does believe in diplomacy first. Strict pacifism can be argued to be immoral. Orwell wrote a brilliant essay on that topic.

He’s not just against China invading Taiwan (can you invade what is recognised to be your own country?) he said he’d advocate US military intervention if they did. How can you justify that? However regrettable that would be, it pales into insignificance when considering the outcome of what Mearscheimer is suggesting. As for the possibility of China invading Taiwan, that would probably be triggered by a US recognition of the independence of Taiwan. You can’t foresee that? And if it does happen, from which side of the US political divide would that come? His every thought is predicated on what’s best for US, not any principle like “peace” or democracy etc, just naked US national interest, and on what will maintain the status quo of US global hegemony. Which was a highly questionable goal when US had the means to carry that out, dangerous now it can’t. I’ll give you he definitely prefers the glove to the iron fist within, but that just makes him a clever nationalist.

Exactly. The Palestinian should be good little occupied people and live as slaves. This guy!

A well articulated comment on RU-vid? End of days are truly upon us.

Not only is it not where the history started, the illegal and brutal occupation of Palestinian territories is ongoing. Palestinians were under seige on Oct 6th, 5th, 3rd etc. It's disturbing that the oppression that Palestinian live under has become so normalise that we consider that is peace and not ongoing violence, oppression and tyranny. We wake from a slomber on the occasion that they strike back and even then we only get told the impact that strike had on the Isrealis.

LOL He didn't predict shit. He didn't predict Russia's fascist imperialism would destroy Ukraine... He just gave a justification for any aggression against Ukraine and said "if something happens.... Only the US it's to blame!"😂😂😂 So deep... Deep into putinist propaganda!

Try ‘analyst’.

you can be completely rationally consistent with air tight logical reasoning and still be wrong if the facts you were working with was inaccurate. and I doubt he is 100% rational, no human is perfect, and he is still claiming to this day that the Northern front was "just a feint, bro", despite overwhelming evidence suggesting that the attack was indeed, not a feint. Idk what's his emotional stake to die on such a dumb hill when the rest of his analysis is fine, perhaps he is a perfectionist and wants to feel like his past evaluations on the Russian psyche was 100% correct, rather than say, 90% correct. His credibility is on the line, so he will continue to claim Russia never attempted to capture Kyiv, when we literally saw them try to do so with our own eyes. Sending in your elite VDV in to get slaughtered does not scream *feint* to me. If conquering the Donbas and eastern regions was the only goal, the VDV would have been much more useful deploying to there instead. The Northern front was anything but a token force to pin down the UA, it was meant to be the decapitation strike to restore someone like Yanukovich back to power and thus turning all of Ukraine into a puppet state. And it failed. Now they're trying to hold and annex the territories in the East as a conciliatory participation trophy.

Agree

if S Korea joins the war, it will be the first casualty. I don't think the US is capable of defending it and Taiwan at the same time.

Agreed. As for a US war with China, Taiwan is acknowledged by US to be part of China. So - US going to war with China over Taiwan would be the equivalent of China going to war with USA if it ever happened that Texas decided to secede.

You are right, but with Australia n China both having refueling in air capability,they are threat to each other especially after Australisa gets NUCLEAR SUBMARINES.

If there is war, China DOES HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO TARGET AND DESTROY ALL MILITARY ASSETS IN AUSTRALIA. Because you are a major staging ground, and home for nuclear warheads, they will destroy everything possible and they can do this by launching ballistic missiles with conventional warheads either land based or by sub. They can also use their multi warhead glide vehicles. Nothing will survive and expect 1,000's of civilian deaths. You made a major mistake by becoming another U.S. proxy. Your people will die while Americans at home will just say, “glad it’s not us”!

South Korea is a peninsula. Sooner or later, they will have to tap into cheap Russian energy and China's Belt and Road. Failing that, they are doomed. Korean unification is inevitable.

He's completely lost about Ukraine. He's deep into Russia's imperialist propaganda

What? Why? Look, you need to rational. So, it's because ..... democracy.... goodness....leadership...freedom .... righteousness ..... antisemitism ........Isis....communism ... authoritarianism .... fast train subsidies .... haven't you been listening???? I'd much rather have a car clogged city, a freeway from the airport and NO FAST TRAINS EVER OK. and the greatest wealth disparity ever. Public transport means you support chinese genocide. And thus Hamas. Antisemitic. Putin FFS. PUTIN!!!! See, being rational is easy!

Well, he invited Mearsheimer over to his country and to his organization. For that, I give him some credit.

Vietnam is not with the US. Western media misrepresents their position.

I’d have to disagree. China is an aspiring hegemon and poses a much bigger security threat to countries in east Asia than the United States

​@@johndoe7839 they arent hegemonic lmao the west needs to stop projecting.

@@johndoe7839 Hi, I see that expressed and often taken as received wisdom, but I don't ever see it analysed or sometimes even questioned. What would China as a regional hegemon look like, and why should we fear that? Why must we assume China will want to act negatively toward us and how would they do that? I disagree with Mearscheimer's insistence that Asian nations will have to "pick a side". India for example has made is clear it has no intention of picking a gang to be in and who will stop them riding both horses? What I think we can all be clear on is that the world is changing and it's unlikely the US will be able to continue being the global hegemon. My question is - why assume that to be bad?

@@WiseFool888 What does being a hegemon even mean? China is like the proverbial elephant in the room, when you're that size you can't help bumping into things around you. Would that alone make them a hegemon? If we analyse China's actions and foreign policies since emerging as a superpower, need we assume they are intent on enforcing regional power in a way we would (and should) be afraid of and oppose? Where has Chinese hard power been in evidence - and then compare that with US .

you are a good soul.

werei s his other hand

The USA has been doing economically what the Germans under the NSDAP did in Germany: using deficit financing to stimulate the military sector of the economy, which I'm given to understand is called military Keynesianism. Now, however, it's finding that it is increasingly difficult to finance all this militarism by printing fiat dollars backed by nothing but an empty promise, as well as running into opposition. It worked in Germany for a while but then it caused a catastrophic war. The USA has been doing this for 85 years but like Germany it seems that sooner or later you have to pay your own way by making things rather than stealing then from others and living in credit.

Israel's wealth and weapons come about because they financed the US when it colonized North America. Now they receive a yearly dividend of high grade weapons for their investment. Sadly, Israel does not really have any incentive to settle for a two-state solution because it is more powerful. So from their perspective they would like to simply expel the Palestinians or worse...

Both camps have a severe desert death cult religious mindset. Neither will accept a two state solution.

Because Israel is the 51st US state. Therefore, Israel behaves as brazenly as the United States.

The United States has used Israel for 75 years to be a pseudo military base. The west took a vulnerable group offering then honey and gold to oppress another group of people so that they can blame them for poor outcomes. The west supports Nazi’s in Ukraine, funds Al Queda, and ISIS. We back the worst of the worst. Just add Israel to the list. Israel has better marketing that’s all.

@@svetlanasveta8608 So powerful forces in the USA are running the show in Israel? Chase the money....$TRILLIONS must have been pimped intio the Israel State in the last 50 years. Nothing wrong with that of course but seeing the dire state of the Palestinians makes one wonder. Palestine should be split into two States for peacful co-existence, but who knows, perhaps there is another plan to make sure that Israel dominates the Middle East. But you know there are obviosly mad hatters in governments of Israel and Palestine areas intent in bombing the hell out of each other. Every attempt by the UN for peace and a two State solution gets vetoed every time by the USA, UK and others...Shame on them.... It's almost as though some powerful organisations wants war in the middle east. Great for the arms industry. Like Ukraine is today.....

That's probably structural. The mainstream media is so deeply circular in its thinking and reporting, it cannot handle dissenting voices

Because he says still things like Sevastopol doesn't matter when its part of Ukrainian ability to do shipping. Which does matter on many levels.

@@jonathanbowen3640 you are not correct. Ukraine has many ports and I don't think Sevastopol has any big value for shipping. Mainly it is a naval base. What i meant is that mainstream media have become pushers of a narrative so only one view is offered. That is not how it used to be, in my opinion. Normally, you could change to a different channel if you didn't like what you heard or felt there is more to the story.

@@arnoldstrong5553 Sevastopol was the main naval base for the black sea. It was the base from which Russia wanted to dominate Ukrainian shipping lanes. (along with smaller assets such as snake island) Now it cannot do that as easily. And it doesn't. Hence why Ukrainian shipping has continued albeit in reduced numbers. I believe you're too caught up in this automatic rejection of mainstream media thing assuming everything that is obvious is somehow incorrect. You likely have some sort of emotional ideological agenda to somehow think differently for the sake of thinking differently. Contrarianism if were being generous. The problem is most of the time most of the people are right. And its the case on most of the elements on this conflict. You get guys like this Mearsheimer wanting to create a USP, a unique viewpoint such as saying Russian never intended to take Kiev (which is utterly insane) to stand out in the marketplace of ideas, to give himself a position in the market.. And people that listen to this weird stuff want to feel as if their special and have special information. They just wish it like them would be recognised. Will will see in a few years who wins this war. Whether Ukraine gives it territory permanently to Russia. (it wont) and whether Ukraine is armed with capabilities the same as if it were actually in NATO. And in a decade it WILL join NATO just like every other country bar about a few in the region. The accession to NATO is absolutely inevitable. Hopefully this guy will see it before he die, just so he's proven wrong. i do agree with a few things he says but he didn't give any numbers, it was all vague subjective terms (so his positions are more difficult to debunk), this is his modus operandi. Be very cautious of his lack of numbers. I agree though this war will last a long time and go through several periods of cessation of fighting. Its been going on since 2014 anyway Eventually Putin will die or be replaced however and that will guarantee the end of it.

@@jonathanbowen3640Sevastopol hasn’t been a part of Ukraine since 2014.

No, it's just that Australia has no sovereignty, we are owned by the UK and US.

@@BrettHar123 Precisely.

😂

great observations.😁😁

How can you create a tourist resort, or any viable economy when you're prisoned off from the world? It took from 10am to 4pm to get through the Israeli checkpoints to Gaza.