Kinnan deck tech and tournament resualt 

Narset's Reversal: 29.67% Kozilek, Butcher of Truth: 0.00% Mana Drain: 21.75% Buried Ruin: 20.84% 9 Island: 25.00% Mana Leak: 42.86% Maraleaf Pixie: 33.62% Simic Cluestone: 33.00% Sensei's Divining Top: 21.97% Alchemist's Refuge: 17.17% Sanctum Weaver: 19.58% Selvala's Stampede: 12.50% Perplexing Chimera: 25.25% Spellskite: 25.09% Prophet of Distortion: 15.85% 4 Forest: 17.96% Gemstone Caverns: 21.18% 8 Island: 33.00% Prowling Serpopard: 25.00% Nullstone Gargoyle: 14.29% Mirrormade: 50.00% Drown in Dreams: 26.43% Destiny Spinner: 20.84% Delay: 14.26% Kozilek, the Great Distortion: 9.52% Walking Ballista: 18.19% Timeless Witness: 33.00% Academy Ruins: 14.07% Nature's Chosen: 25.00% 3 Island: 5.36% Steal Enchantment: 42.86% Allosaurus Shepherd: 14.98% Mouth of Ronom: 18.89% Regrowth: 14.60% Wood Elves: 0.00% Transmute Artifact: 23.57% Garruk, Primal Hunter: 25.00% Cyclonic Rift: 20.75% Biomancer's Familiar: 13.98% Burgeoning: 25.00% Oko, Thief of Crowns: 16.19% Submerge: 5.00% Gaea's Cradle: 20.92% Island: 20.75% Mindbreak Trap: 21.23% Lotus Petal: 20.69% Staff of Domination: 19.51% Frantic Search: 0.00% 9 Forest: 25.00% Relic of Legends: 28.83% Mirran Spy: 32.50% Blue Elemental Blast: 20.00% Agent of Treachery: 25.00% Defense of the Heart: 25.00% Stifle: 23.71% Tree of Tales: 25.39% City of Brass: 21.46% The Mycosynth Gardens: 0.00% Defense Grid: 8.33% Tolaria West: 0.00% Abundance: 25.00% Jace's Archivist: 25.00% 2 Island: 20.19% Mox Amber: 20.78% Eternal Witness: 20.10% Kogla, the Titan Ape: 15.42% Snow-Covered Forest: 19.26% Hydroid Krasis: 25.00% Force of Vigor: 21.64% Minor Misstep: 0.00% Invasion of Ikoria: 24.72% Lurking Predators: 15.43% Winds of Rebuke: 42.86% Vitalize: 33.00% Nature's Lore: 0.00% Tail Swipe: 0.00% Homeward Path: 20.93% Noxious Revival: 19.29% Devoted Druid: 26.89% Woodland Bellower: 0.00% Mishra's Workshop: 0.00% Moonsnare Prototype: 20.59% Llanowar Loamspeaker: 16.50% Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger: 19.50% Birthing Pod: 45.00% Fabricate: 23.16% Seedborn Muse: 20.68% Phyrexian Metamorph: 21.99% Inventors' Fair: 20.99% Training Grounds: 12.98% Llanowar Elves: 20.46% Barkchannel Pathway: 21.89% Quest for Renewal: 25.00% Leveler: 0.00% Toski, Bearer of Secrets: 25.00% Hullbreaker Horror: 20.64% Sol Ring: 20.87% Opt: 28.25% Lightning Greaves: 17.17% Horseshoe Crab: 25.00% Rhystic Study: 20.95% Voltaic Key: 29.89% Stonework Packbeast: 14.68% Summoner's Pact: 18.74% Nyxbloom Ancient: 20.35% Trinisphere: 15.24% Mirage Mirror: 20.85% Jace, Wielder of Mysteries: 16.50% Cavern of Souls: 18.92% Primal Command: 25.00% 5 Island: 13.75% Fyndhorn Elves: 20.73% Circle of Dreams Druid: 16.25% 6 Snow-Covered Forest: 25.00% Sylvan Caryatid: 17.04% Tezzeret the Seeker: 21.61% Fierce Empath: 8.34% Craterhoof Behemoth: 11.86% Priest of Titania: 13.54% Teferi, Master of Time: 37.50% Decisive Denial: 25.00% Survival of the Fittest: 11.33% Snow-Covered Island: 20.53% Pongify: 21.53% Fabled Passage: 23.96% Sea Gate Restoration: 27.43% Old Gnawbone: 25.00% Nezahal, Primal Tide: 22.09% Agatha's Soul Cauldron: 28.00% Into the Roil: 35.00% Eldritch Evolution: 15.38% Daze: 26.25% Dramatic Reversal: 16.14% Boseiju, Who Shelters All: 40.00% Pili-Pala: 33.00% Lion's Eye Diamond: 20.00% Chord of Calling: 21.51% Treasure Vault: 20.66% Spellseeker: 22.28% Displacer Kitten: 20.00% Arcane Denial: 13.00% Alchemist's Retrieval: 14.06% 8 Forest: 33.00% Talisman of Curiosity: 20.90% Windswept Heath: 20.62% Elvish Spirit Guide: 26.78% Machine God's Effigy: 27.16% Quirion Ranger: 20.00% Forbidden Orchard: 15.72% 0 Island: 12.50% Spectral Sailor: 16.50% Sylvan Library: 20.81% Finale of Devastation: 20.83% Grand Architect: 33.00% Reshape: 24.60% Planar Bridge: 25.00% Defabricate: 25.00% Gwenna, Eyes of Gaea: 18.00% Tendershoot Dryad: 33.00% Fading Hope: 0.00% Spy Network: 25.00% Scroll Rack: 25.00% Imposter Mech: 29.89% Giant Ankheg: 25.00% Pull from Tomorrow: 32.14% Shimmer Myr: 32.50% Solve the Equation: 21.40% Conqueror's Flail: 33.00% Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait: 25.00% Sphinx of the Second Sun: 23.39% Ponder: 26.25% Mox Opal: 20.56% Verity Circle: 25.00% Haywire Mite: 42.86% Bloom Tender: 20.99% Kira, Great Glass-Spinner: 14.33% Natural Order: 14.98% Guile: 25.00% Whir of Invention: 16.03% Gyre Engineer: 17.67% Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant: 16.01% Shared Summons: 21.49% Silver Myr: 0.00% Thieving Skydiver: 28.57% Emry, Lurker of the Loch: 38.33% Laboratory Maniac: 14.50% Paradise Druid: 15.42% Ancient Tomb: 20.35% Sylvan Tutor: 17.73% Mana Crypt: 20.68% Nature's Claim: 18.77% Archetype of Endurance: 8.33% Basalt Monolith: 20.72% Damping Sphere: 16.67% Hinterland Harbor: 11.88% Dreamroot Cascade: 11.25% Mystic Remora: 20.74% Isochron Scepter: 15.40% Autumn's Veil: 15.00% Forest: 20.70% 4 Snow-Covered Forest: 6.25% 2 Snow-Covered Island: 22.17% Turntimber Symbiosis: 21.83% Spell Snare: 13.78% Tamiyo's Safekeeping: 25.00% Scalding Tarn: 21.32% Temporal Mastery: 50.00% Leyline of Abundance: 25.00% March of Swirling Mist: 23.65% Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth: 22.86% 2 Snow-Covered Forest: 21.09% Midnight Clock: 33.00% Whirlwind Denial: 26.33% Flooded Strand: 22.36% Crop Rotation: 21.07% Thrasios, Triton Hero: 20.72% Yavimaya Coast: 21.41% Ornithopter of Paradise: 13.83% 4 Snow-Covered Island: 14.00% Veil of Summer: 18.44% Growth Spiral: 16.50% Double Major: 25.00% Worldly Tutor: 20.96% Mana Confluence: 21.15% Quirion Elves: 16.50% 3 Snow-Covered Island: 16.11% Rapid Hybridization: 22.12% Counterbalance: 22.00% Energy Refractor: 17.57% 6 Snow-Covered Island: 25.00% Wizard's Rockets: 0.00% Reconstruction: 28.57% Back to Basics: 19.33% Green Sun's Twilight: 22.50% Negate: 0.00% Arcane Signet: 20.75% Breeding Pool: 20.96% Blue Sun's Zenith: 0.00% Grim Monolith: 21.42% Dimensional Infiltrator: 11.25% Enter the Infinite: 25.00% Freed from the Real: 20.25% Thought Vessel: 19.11% Thousand-Year Elixir: 10.00% Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy: 20.67% Gitaxian Probe: 21.15% Chain of Vapor: 20.85% Swiftfoot Boots: 0.00% Colossal Skyturtle: 20.88% Trinket Mage: 40.00% 3 Snow-Covered Forest: 14.17% Brainstorm: 19.27% Memory's Journey: 25.00% Somberwald Sage: 25.00% Cryptolith Rite: 23.00% Mystical Tutor: 21.62% Thassa's Intervention: 25.00% Consecrated Sphinx: 21.03% Mana Vault: 20.74% Arcane Laboratory: 16.33% Muddle the Mixture: 16.83% Spark Double: 25.00% Paradise Mantle: 17.14% Mental Misstep: 21.47% Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur: 20.81% Mox Diamond: 20.61% Springleaf Drum: 21.00% Urn of Godfire: 26.19% Sakashima's Student: 33.00% Wandering Archaic: 20.98% Thassa's Oracle: 16.32% 4 Island: 14.48% Chrome Mox: 20.66% Trophy Mage: 23.74% Beast Within: 11.82% Birds of Paradise: 20.72% Amulet of Vigor: 40.00% 3 Forest: 4.00% Lórien Revealed: 16.00% 5 Forest: 10.00% Command Tower: 20.82% Flusterstorm: 21.39% Cankerbloom: 42.86% Phyrexian Revoker: 20.00% Green Sun's Zenith: 21.28% Phantasmal Image: 20.68% Peregrine Drake: 25.00% Drift of Phantasms: 18.79% Jeweled Lotus: 17.92% Spire of Industry: 28.13% Spectral Searchlight: 25.00% Armored Scrapgorger: 25.37% Prismite: 23.19% Castle Garenbrig: 6.67% Cogwork Assembler: 20.00% Subtlety: 20.00% Teferi's Ageless Insight: 50.00% Narset, Parter of Veils: 0.00% Merchant Scroll: 14.50% Incubation Druid: 9.70% Jaspera Sentinel: 25.00% Prophetic Prism: 25.00% Thorn Mammoth: 22.76% Llawan, Cephalid Empress: 15.53% Filter Out: 0.00% Vigean Graftmage: 17.67% Plaza of Heroes: 21.00% Koma, Cosmos Serpent: 18.54% Quicksilver Gargantuan: 25.00% Thorn of Amethyst: 17.42% Lazotep Plating: 0.00% Glen Elendra Archmage: 23.35% Kenrith's Transformation: 0.00% Unsubstantiate: 21.34% Urza, Lord High Artificer: 30.75% 2 Forest: 20.23% Command Beacon: 22.46% Polluted Delta: 23.27% Chromatic Orrery: 31.88% Boseiju, Who Endures: 20.83% Clever Impersonator: 15.08% Mystic Reflection: 25.00% Vodalian Mage: 25.00% Timetwister: 18.88% Commander's Sphere: 14.50% Lodestone Golem: 17.71% Omen Hawker: 23.30% Endurance: 20.84% Torpor Orb: 19.64% Emrakul, the Promised End: 0.00% Void Winnower: 21.56% Soulless Jailer: 16.04% Ledger Shredder: 20.80% Tasha's Hideous Laughter: 20.00% Reality Shift: 18.21% Trickbind: 19.71% Planeswalker's Mischief: 25.00% Borne Upon a Wind: 34.52% Reliquary Tower: 12.50% Snap: 18.54% Neoform: 23.94% Tishana, Voice of Thunder: 0.00% Selvala, Heart of the Wilds: 13.75% Zopandrel, Hunger Dominus: 25.00% Exotic Orchard: 18.05% Minamo, School at Water's Edge: 27.15% Mystic Sanctuary: 5.00% Ertai's Meddling: 20.00% Miscast: 23.65% Misdirection: 25.73% Urza's Saga: 16.03% Copy Artifact: 23.18% Simic Signet: 21.66% Faerie Mastermind: 23.21% Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx: 15.42% Kodama of the East Tree: 10.83% Arcum's Astrolabe: 8.33% Fellwar Stone: 21.11% Manaweft Sliver: 32.50% Vineglimmer Snarl: 9.69% 6 Island: 10.00% Flooded Grove: 12.71% Rejuvenating Springs: 21.81% Boreal Druid: 22.50% Leyline of Anticipation: 26.60% Prismatic Vista: 24.79% Saryth, the Viper's Fang: 0.00% Three Visits: 0.00% Fierce Guardianship: 20.51% Suspend: 0.00% Stern Dismissal: 0.00% Dispel: 21.80% Overcharged Amalgam: 33.00% Tale's End: 14.50% Fog: 25.00% Pemmin's Aura: 18.82% Ilysian Caryatid: 17.00% Mulldrifter: 33.00% Otawara, Soaring City: 20.21% Terastodon: 16.41% Astral Dragon: 24.17% Thorn Elemental: 28.57% Moonsilver Key: 22.59% Delighted Halfling: 20.07% Aboleth Spawn: 27.67% Pact of Negation: 21.28%

Perplexing Chimera + Homeward Path is very good. - If you they get a Seedborn Muse out, you have a high chance of winning 12:50

Perplexing Chimera is essentially used a stax piece or for stealing a payoff spell. It can also act as a worse Mindbreak Trap with how the triggers get put on the stack

You should have Tyler from Play to Win on an episode talking about this deck, he is a big supporter of the perplexing chimera.

Some recommendations, Mons: 1. Instead of those very dense histograms with number of counterspell, you can just plot a scatter plot with x axis number of counterspells and y axis winrate, will be much easier to read 2. Absolute win rates are very hard to keep track of when it’s not centered around 25%. I suggest either reporting differences or relative change. Example, for tezzeret instead of reporting 21.61%, you can either report the difference in winrate, so 21.61-20.74=+0.87%, or the relative change, ie (21.61-20.74)/20.74, ie by how much the winrate changes if you include it. Though maybe it makes even more sense to do winrate included-winrate not included, then you get what causal inference people call “an effect” 3. Any chance you can get the average winrate across decks? Ie wins of all decks /( wins + losses of all decks), so we know which decks have “positive” winrate compared to the field Thank for listening to the previous advices, love this series as someone with a stats degree

I had a game a few weeks ago where I kept saccing snakes to my Koma to tap down a Tymna and a Tivit. It's a useful stax piece, more in Kinnan's style. Edit: Also, Perplexing Chimera is a double effect stax piece, because after you steal a spell, the other two players who didn't get it still have to play under it.

Sorry for the notifications, didn't know you couldn't put some links in RU-vid comments. Thanks for the video! The Kinnan community loves it already! PingmeisterPong already had a shoutout if you follow him online. Just wanted to shout out Wounded Satellite's Kinnan Primer on Moxfield if you look him up. He explains why Perplexing Chimera is so good as well as cards like Thorn Mammoth and Glen Elendra. Will also give Faerie Mastermind a chance as I dismissed it based on other player's experiences. The unique card choices give me so many new ideas. I have never heard of Mirromade before. For example, I like Chromatic Orrery because it's a colorless combo enabler that Moonsilver Key can tutor for. The Devoted Druid/Machine God's Effigy is something I am trying instead of Nyxbloom Ancient/Grim Monolith. I am skeptical of cards like Reshape, Voltaic Key, Urza Lord High, and artifact lands but can't argue with the winning percentage. Lastly will test out the interaction suite of Narset's Reversal, Daze, and Misdirection but hard to fit more cards. And are cantrips (Ponder) good in cEDH?! Sorry for the long post, these videos are just the best!

Perplexing Chimera isn't just good because of the Kinnan flips, but also because Kinnan usually plays Homeward Path and that's an amazing combo.

Hmm When i saw The One Ring printed for the first time, I think it won't become cedh card like this tho. Especially, in fast meta game like this. And everyone could win without taking combat. But the statistic shows the other way.

I think the most interesting thing across all these videos is just how few of the card type inclusion graphs show a clear trend line. Frequently its either all the same or evenly scattered but i don't really recall any where the amount of a card type had a big impact on win rate. Perhaps that will be more the case when comparing across multiple commanders? As an aside it might be worth adding a trendline to help read the graph

The one ring has a very good statistics in all the decks, im getting one copy before the price goes up

Hehe, last weekend I played two kinnan decks in the same pod. I played a scrappy grenzo DW, turn 3 I flipped up a treasure nabber the kinnan players were not happy.

Hi Mons, I was just wondering if you could do Yuriko? Thanks! Big fan from down under 🫡👍🏽

How do you define win rate? Do you exclude intentional draws in the list of matches considered?

I have a potential point as to why certain cards appear so consistent in decks w a higher win % that may bias what you are attempting to do here; The most enfranchised players tend to be the best players. They play most and for the longest. The most enfranchised players also tend to be in the cedh discord for a particular deck. The deck lists in discords tend toward consensus or consolidation. So maybe what we are seeing as the cards that increase win % like the one ring and chimera is not so much the cards impacting win rate so much as cards that the expert players just tend to play more often. Maybe it’s not that the one ring increases win % on its own. Maybe it’s just a card that the community at large has mostly decided should be played and what we see as increased win rate per single card inclusion should be viewed as more of a sign post that these cards are more likely to be played by the players most likely to have the highest win rates 🤷‍♂️

Good video. I always cringe when I see cEDH lists without black playing Thassa's Oracle. Exception is only Grolnok I guess where it's good even without black.

Could you do Sythis? im building a enchantment stax deck and was needing some good ideas on how it plays, it’s been fun on moxfield playtest but it’s hard without a opponent. It be nice to know how to close the game besides sanctum weaver and the green white split cost creature that untaps her. Thanks

17:36 lmao 😆 Gyre = j-eye👁-r by the way. Much like "gyro."

Can we do Thrasios Dawnwaker next please. We need help in this Bowmaster meta. 😊

Post an optimal cedh kinnan list

Was going to ask if you are going to do one on Azami. Not biased at all because I run her as the commander. But partially because I like these videos to see what slight differences between decks can do to affect the outcome.

Is there any data on thrasios/vilesmasher?

Do you know the average draw rate for cedh pods ?

Still waiting for magda or sisay.

Do sisay next!