Newcomer that don't know about EVs are missing out. The idea of solar panels on my home in SF Calif means I almost don't pay for electricity and I charge my Tesla Model 3 Standard for free with so little maintenance that it's a no brainer. Once more people adopt the EV car, they will be mad at the dealers that put out false information about EVs ignorer to maintain their ICE car business. It's only a matter of time and America looks at countries like Norway and how Europe is going with more solar and wind power that the world can truly save money on transportation plus the benefits of living in clean air. It will be in the history books that yes time does eventually do take the right course and go EV.
Yes we also have rooftop solar in Australia to charge out Tesla Y and about to fit a Tesla Powerwall. The amount of misinformation being spread mainly by guys fearful of EV's is surprising. None of them have any experience with EV's other than what some other guy has told them but doesn't stop them talking nonsensical trash.
That no brainer is because you can afford a solar panels and electric cars. People use public transportation don’t have money to feed their family many are homeless or live in a car. Your solar installation 15kw cost you 150k$ car at least 60kw your wife and teenagers want one 2x or 3x. Even if i want to buy electric im renting where I am going to charge- you’ll say superchargers. That is not cheap and it has potential to become more expensive when one day they will start charging pick surcharge plus degradation of the batteries. Resale value drops like Mercedes 20k$ a year.
Toyota loses a lot more than that on each hydrogen fuel cell car they sell (which is not very many, because HFC cars are a gigantic flop). All BEV EVs lose money at first, just like Tesla did for the first several years. It's a new technology that takes a while to recoup the costs on. If Toyota had not wasted so much time and money on HFCs (that they STILL waste time and money on!) then maybe they would already be in the profit stage and giving Tesla a run for their money. Instead, the entire Japanese auto industry is *WAY* behind most of the rest of the world in this area.
It is a strange thing, but the human condition is when you get very good at something you don’t want to change and get very good at something else. Companies enjoying long-term success these days, know very well the importance of adapting. Bill Gates famously stopped, his developers working on their profitable Microsoft exchange email system to work full-time on Microsoft internet explorer - which they gave away for free - because he saw where the competition was, and Microsoft were in danger of becoming irrelevant, and bankrupt.
Japan/Toyota did not want to make BEV cars as China was so far in front in terms of materials and battery development. Japan/Toyota would be dependent on China. Toyota made the Japan government build a hydrogen fueling net work in Japan. They still insist that BEV will only be 30% of the new car market as a maximum and ICE and Hybrid will always be part of the customer choice. In 2024, in the UK, 22% of new cars sold must be zero emission or pay a fine of $19k per car. By 2028 the target is 52%, 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Zero emissions means hybrids don´t count. In the UK a large gas station company is having Tesla install chargers in their gas stations.
How much power has fusion produced? It's always 20 years and billions of dollars away. The first iPhone was expensive for the time, only on AT&T, didn't have GPS, didn't have tethering, and was so fragile a dropped call could break the screen. Evs made up the first cars but had many of the same problems of today so when the electric starter was invented they were soon phased out, and that was at 38 percent adoption rate. The article says nothing about Toyota, it talks about Ford, GM, Hyundai, and Tesla. You fault Toyota for their first prototype hydrogen car sold only in select markets for losing money and in the next sentence say evs lose money. At work, we had $20,000 equipment that was soon phased out with something way better and cheaper, but it was that equipment that paved the way for the next generation. Will hydrogen work? Idk, but you didn't know either
@@justinr9753 I believe the original iphone did not have wifi either and limited battery life. Last time I checked they had 25% of the entire market..... a couple of bigger and smaller versions of exactly the same phone using the same operating system - I wonder where I have seen that before...
The largest manufacturers assume they can manage the market as they always have. They can make EV's whenever they want. There were 3,000 carriage and cart makers in the US in 1903. By 1920 there might have been 200.
@@robertfonovic3551 Sounds fast but market disruption is fast . Of course we need to get off our butts and build the chargers and educate people to the fact that most will only use fast charging when traveling out of town. Th bad PR from the Oil companies are effective.
In theory an EV should ultimately be cheaper to manufacture than ICE vehicles. The manufacture of the actual IC engine is more difficult to automate for one, where as automating production of electric motors and batteries better lends itself to automation.
It is not that they make few EVs since they lose money on each, rather they lose money on each BECAUSE they make so few. Tesla lost money on each car too, until they ramped up to make a lot of them.
They’re playing the long game. They’re betting that the technology will allow lower production prices as the technology matures. And it will, it’s just a ‘when’ thing.
40% are considering to buy an EV as their next vehicle? I would bet that this is not even remotely true, at least not in the US. While I know a lot of people, many of them interested in my decision to drive a Tesla, I have yet to meet a single(!!!) person who seriously considers buying an EV. I’m predicting that most OEMs will scale back their EV plans to an absolute minimum and that they will quietly ramp the development of ICE vehicles back up.
that 40 percent figure may well be true, however there is a difference between considering and making an actual purchase. i have considered mowing my lawn today ,but its not going to happen. lol
Considering and doing are a world apart. Ramping up the ICE cars will work for a while. Then they will not meet emission standards. They need to be working their butt off on BEV development.
I reakon governments will revise their ZEV mandates as they see that most auto manufactures will not be able to meet the targets as consumers still have no faith in EV's
@@jprt3270 - One reason Hybrids are doing well - more and more automakers are making the hybrid variant the only choice so they can keep there average MPG up high enough. Has less to do with demand and more with what they allow the consumer to buy. It's also far easier for them to make a hybrid than a good EV.
I looked, but couldn't find, the amount car companies pay to purchase carbon credits. One site, without documentation, said about $3k per vehicle. If so, that's half of the $6k loss. Think about how many years Tesla suffered losses before they were able to scale up to profitability.
carbon credits are to offset ICE not EVs, the 6k loss figure sam mentions here is based on legacy EVs not ICE so the likes of toyota are still making profits from ICE even after offsetting with carbon credits, they probably aren't building EVs because they can't do it profitably atm they might be waiting for a new standard in battery tech, which makes sense with LFP and now sodium ion coming in full commercialisation in the past couple of years - even EV specialists like Telsa and BYD have to invest massively to make the switch, so it seems like an ideal time to transition also you have specialist battery companies like northvolt which legacy can use to temporarily delay the massive capex of building out battery tech infrastructure, less risk but a loss in long-term competitiveness due to lack of vertical integration, but you mitigate massive risk in the short term, especially if you go all in at the wrong time you'd think with time in market and existing infrastructure legacy automakers can offset lack of vertical integration of battery tech and still remain competitive but that remains to be seen, but maybe that was due to lack of off-the-shelf options, now they exists in the form of BYD and northvolt so who knows, might see some massive changes in the next couple of years as legacy catch up
They legacies are NOT just way, way behind, it's worse than that. They have big debt and have failed to even come close to Tesla or the Chinese. Moreover, they are falling behind daily and need not one miracle, but many big breakthroughs. "It's all over now, baby blue."
The government wants car companies to build Zero Emission Vehicles. To that end the created the ZEV credit system. Ford and GM could have and should have gotten the hint. Instead they opted to buy credits. Now who's fault is that. Tesla had to learn to make cars. They did. They were also building a product without an established market. They sold them.
Toyata had a good run with the Prius between 1997 to 2012. But in 2009, Akio Toyoda made himself CEO and started doing dumb things. Example: Toyota Mirai - 2014 to 2022 R.I.P.
The new Prius is an immense succes, Toyota is investing more than 100 billion dollars in Bev's. They will even change tge production development to AI design and gigacasting. They are magnificent
Dumb things, hardly, go and order any Toyota and see how long you have to wait to get it, no other manufacturer has this dumb thing hanging over it, one model about 2 years, RAV here in OZ, 6 months, yes real dumb.
@@bruceburns1672I used to work for Toyota for over 20 years I know how they work , the long wait is to keep the price up , when they were here in Australia if the demand was there they would increase production
@@bruceburns1672 in Europe we always have to wait for our new car.....because, when ordered, it us not manufactured yet.... . Delivery time between 4/5 months up to a year. Demand for Toyota cars is immense, tgey cann't keep up with the production...
I have an EV for just about 4 years now. I love it, but I know its limitations and I’ve gotten used to it. But then again I live not far from work and do my errands nearby. I just need to recharge once a week, unless I decide to travel farther than my usual routine. Never needed to recharge outside my garage.
Don't think that the average person will be driving in the future, the working class will be expected to take public transportation, bike or walk... You will own nothing and be miserable !
My best friend in CA did most of his charging at work, and it was free for him. As EVs pick up market share, charging infrastructure will need to improve for all Americans.
There is a fundamental principle of business called "opportunity cost", the basis for investing in any enterprise; "For what price progress"($?) Because there is no payback/return until the product comes to market, particularly in the case of new technology, that can make you uncompetitive. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for winners-and-losers[Buffet/Berkshire >$150B]. The winners, like the "Magnificent Seven" are already peak valuation. So buying the best 'cash-poor' losers is an "opportunity cost" to maximize profit, with lower risk; "pennies-on-the-dollar".
Interesting, but it occurred to me here (in the USA) that while EV’s are growing in sales, they are not nearly reaching projected volumes because our government is attempting to force a market transition from ICE to EV, yet didn’t fulfill infrastructure obligations. Some companies made the leap to abandon ICE in favor of EV’s like Ford. They were manufacturing greater volumes of EV’s based upon expected demand only to have the rug pulled out from under them. While government incentives can be tolerable, and sometimes beneficial, government mandates have no place in the market.
Sam. You should read The Innovators Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. Clayton was a professor at Harvard Business School and examined why New Technologies cause Great Firms to Fail
Those who can’t change at home don’t have to go to high speed chargers. The level two charger is nothing more than a range receptacle like most people have at home. If your car gets 3 miles per KWH you don’t need much time to replace the energy used for a nine mile round trip to the fast food restaurant or retail store . An hour’s worth of charging at 50 A x 240 v is 12 KWH. That’s 36 miles of range so 15 minutes on the charger in the parking lot covers the energy cost of the trip. If the store charges $.20/KWH ,that’s $.60 for the trip. Bring your own cord ,leave the camera on in the car to catch copper thieves, and roll the dice. The store owners should be willing to install the charging port and recover the expense through the small mark up on electricity. It’s a good way for them to attract customers also.
The preported new batteries from CATL and SK may be cheap enough and dense enough to put an end to consumers concerns regarding range and charging speeds. Lets make sure we revisit this same issue in 12 months.
Over 90% of US buyers are still buying ICE. Toyota's share price in the last 12 months is up 107% by being very cautious on EV. Even with Tesla, where I live there used to be a waiting list, not anymore, they are available now, despite the discounting. The demand will surely come but it is not there yet, for legacy auto the numbers are just not enough for them to get too involved.
@@danharold3087 But even if true, if you were CEO of a company, you are not going to bankrupt it by making a product 90% of people don't want to buy yet. In 2030 yes, maybe, but even that is unknown at this point. For example, where I live the cost of public charging is very expensive, far more expensive than filling with gas. Therefore if you live in an apartment then there is simply no advantage at all to owning an EV, only downsides.
@@jamie-ck6js All the legacy needed to do was to continue BEV development. Maybe 1 car with low production numbers if that. You don't learn how to build better BEVs by lobbying congress. But if you do get that compelling design you can crank up a line. Yeah the cost of public charging being high relative to gasoline is not the free market at work. Oil controls the gasoline and Natural gas controls the power plants. Great way to keep people buying ICE. It will take time but when apartments w/o charging fail to rent landlords will install charging or sell them.
It was 98 percent 5 years ago. Change is happening fast. Imagine where the sales will be in 10 years. Also, US is kinda slow in most other major markets EVs have much higher share
Plug in hybrids are worse for the environment than ice cars. They typically also consume more fuel than an equivalent ice car… Most people just can’t be bothered to plug in for just a few miles of electric range…
The average price of the top ten electric vehicles in the US is about $53,758, with an average of $48,430 for the low end trim of each model and $64,936 for the high end trim of each model. Where you can purchase a New 2024 Toyota Corolla for around $24,000. For the average consumer the price of an EV has to come way down for it to be appealing for most to consider purchasing.
Hyundai and Kia are great for the perception of selling their electric cars. They have really been delayed deliveries to many customers, to the point that people have bought other cars. A win win for them, not loosing as much money as being perceived as popular and selling out and delivering many cars.
These projected sales numbers will never be met unless the charging infrastructure is improved dramatically. You will have some areas of the country. The USA am speaking about that may hit those numbers, but the majority of the country will not.
The US is following the same S-shaped adoption curve as all the other countries, albeit with a couple of years delay compared to some other countries. One such country being mine. Here in Denmark, right now about 50% of new cars sold are EVs. Here you can charge at the supermarkets, curbside, workplaces or even at other people's private homes using an app. Still, most people charge at home. People without EV experience tend to think you charge an EV similarly to how to fill an ICE car at a gas station. In reality you only do that when you go on a road trip, which for most people is a couple of times a year, at most.
Thx Sam! Great job covering: scale, consumer aversion to EVs, EV mfg risk, EV mkt share & Legacy's failure to overcome them. Tesla, on the other hand, succeded. Accordingly, the info you provided supports Elon's strategy of scale through price cuts vs short-term profits. As the latter is what Legacy chose.
EV sales growing that rapid in the USA? Forget it. The growth in EU is only for a small part responsible by attractive models of green motives; only because of the hideous fuel prices. And China wants only to reduce its dependency upon oil.
BYD and Tesla are already profitable making EVs. One key is making the car lighter, so you don't need as large a battery to get the desired range. Taking an obsolete ICE platform and stuffing in a battery and motors, makes for a very inefficient design that requires even more batteries. The costs will never be competitive.
Do automakers go for long term profits or long term vision? Legacy automakers all have geriatric board members who only want one thing: to be profitable one quarter to the next. There is absolutely no incentive to invest heavily on new and disruptive technology. Yes, they all make a few EVs but it's just window dressing. Already future regulations have been dialed back in the US and EU, bending to the pressure of auto makers, unions and dealerships. When push comes to shove, it's obvious who has the real power.
Motortrend just release a dual-motor duel with the Model 3 LR Highland, Iconiq 6 Limited and Polestar 2 Performance. Tesla was #1, Ioniq 6 #2, and Polestar #3. (Spring 2024 issue).
How do they determine $6000 loss per car sold? If a company spends a billion dollars to build an EV factory, then after the first car is sold does the company say they are losing almost $billion for every EV they sell?
The formula is actually pretty simple ... You add all material and labour costs and compare this to the sale prices. The building of the factory and its equipment is a one time investment that is paid for from the profits the company makes. If the company loses money they will go bankrupt. Pretty simple is it not?
@@mauriceharting5877 That can't be true. How can material and labor cost more during the early stages of building a car compared to 5 or 10 years later when it is "profitable" ? That doesn't make sense, especially if you consider inflation.
@@thewolfdoctor761 But it is. If your car is popular as demand grows you buy the supplies to build it in larger lots for less. Maybe you improve the car and pull some of the cost out.
350 mi of EPA range is tough to come by so far. Mercedes EQS, Tesla Model S, Lucid and maybe a couple other German models can do it. Lucid isn't a sane choice anymore unless you're ok with owning a car you won't be able to get parts for. It would be nice if people could get over this range thing. It's really mostly about charger availability and charging speed for long range travel. Urban dwellers have a huge advantage in not needing much range, so they can get much less expensive EVs. Chinese cars are all hearsay so far. EPA testing is the minimal standard, and the auto magazines come down even harder on range in their own testing.
I think the range anxiety comes from the reports of the early EV buyers and comparison with ice vehicles. Instead of charging often, they are used to filling up and driving until near empty. Any EV research shows that the true range is not even close to what you are expecting. 300-mile range becomes 240 miles at 80%, then 240 miles becomes 200 miles with normal highway driving. Not to mention the charger locations can cause extra stops because of availability. All we see is delays when driving EVs on the highway. But it is true we worry more about the 5% highway driving vs the 95% everyday driving. This should change whenever we get more charging options.
YEP. I would consider buying an EV with a 200 mile range if the charging infrastucture and recharge times were as good as ICE. However its not, and may never happen.
This next few years are going to set the die for Legacy Car makers, it's going to decide whether they survive and what size they will be in future. They are going to have to understand that the way they currently design and manufacture cars isn't going to cut it. Farming out much of what you produce to third parties is throwing away profit that needs to be kept in house. Their pace of development is way too slow for this new reality, and that's going to be extremely hard to turn around.
It’s counter to the corporate culture of legacy OEMs to take the risks necessary to dive in with both feet into EVs. They risk alienating their supply chains for ICE with whom they have long term contracts. Moreover they don’t have the engineering to design software-based EV platforms to compete with Tesla and other EV only brands.
Legacy considers going full in EV as betting the farm, but are still in denial that their current farm is burning down. Still having painted themselves into that corner it may well be far too late already. So that leaves them to enjoy the ICE ride while it lasts as the only option left.
You say 99% will charge at home but what you forget is that there are millions that have no off road parking so 99% is a misleading figure, like most of your blogs.
Most drivers do less than 50 miles/day. The higher depreciation doesn’t matter because it’s driven by falling new prices, so you can trade in your Tesla for a better one for less.
Penty of demand, that's why the Tesla Model Y is the best selling vehicle in the world. EV segment is also the fastest growing segment of the auto industry. I'll agree there is not so much demand for poorly designed EVs just like there is little demand for poorly designed ICE cars.
I saw an actual Tesla ad before watching this video. I don't think I ever saw that before. When Tesla comes out with the Model 2 and FSD is going to be 100% entirely by then for some time (feels like 95% now), Tesla, with their massive advancements in manufacturing efficiencies, legacy is going to be so far behind on this. At the moment, probably the biggest reason E Vehicles don't dominate is because of cost (which Model 2 will address) and charging - it needs to be seen and known to be reliable and under 15 minutes for up to 80% charge - which also sounds like we are almost there
I'm sure millions of people can't afford a car at any price and use public transit to get around. There are used EVs for $20K now which may be more affordable for some. $49K is the average new car price (USA), and there are plenty of new EVs priced well below that.
Averages are meaningless in this context. You need to know, at the minimum, the amount PER manufacturer and even better would be the amount per model, like MachE, Lighting, Lyriq, Blazer EV, etc. If GM hadn’t made the stupid move to tie themselves so tightly the to the Ultium battery chemistry, a chemistry that was out of date before the factories to make them were even built, they could have partnered with CATL and be at least breaking even per car until they could get their software debugged and start producing cars at a price and volume where they could make money.
Imagine I spend over 300.000 € for my company to buy VW Cars. They become cocking, annoying at the local store and I had so many repairs to make, I drove me crazy. Then I need another VW T6.1 for 70.000 Euros. They told me I can get one in about 1.5 years ! - Then I bought a Tesla within 4 days for 40.000 Euros and I am carrying my stuff in a trailer. Works great so far and within 8 month I drove about 35.000 kilometers.
And that’s the whole reason there’s a smear campaign going on concerning Chinese EVs. Don’t know it’s the case in the US or Australia, but here in Europe for sure.
No smear compaign about Chinese EVs in the USA, since there are no China brands selling here (yet). Only Tesla is the brunt of smear campaigns from oil interests, dealers and competitors.
Things are not going well for Tesla. Between bad press about the electric vehicles themselves and the chaotic whims of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Tesla's stock value has dropped this year by nearly 30%. Tesla's sales have gotten so bad that the company has resorted to advertising - something Elon Musk famously said he can't stand. "I hate advertising," Musk posted on Twitter, now X, in 2019.
Hey Sam, Hope your foot is healing well! As for Toyota, no matter all the gloom & doom being wished on them, the fact is... Toyota Motor Corp is an immensely smart and powerful market leader. In my humble view, they are intentionally choosing to pay the lesser price on the road to transformation. Smart. And when it comes to what most consumers Truat, hybrids, Toyota is right there in that sweet spot. Smart. When they move, it will be the right time for them. Cheers
They are certainly number one at something - spending someone else’s money. Toyota are the most indebted company in the world. VW is not much better in third place. Time is running out.
I worry when Toyota finally offers compelling EVs, it will be too late. They have already given up the China market. Seems like they are giving up the US and EU markets too. I suspect they will do well in Japan continuing with Hyrdogen and ICE, but that's a tiny market. Maybe they will do well in Africa?
@tesla_tap I think it's fair to say that none of us, me first, know what Toyota's detailed strategy is, but clearly, they're up to something. At the simplest; let others spend to the right solution and place in time, then use the "too big to fail" approach along with their manufacturing & marketing excellence to catch up. I humbly offer that consumers who've purchased Toyotas for literally generations will flow right back to them for two good reasons - Trust & Value. I firmly believe Toyota knows exactly what it's doing. Put it this way, if you had all of what they have, how would you approach the evolution of motorized transportation? Again, they'll nestle nicely with hybrids until they re-emerge into an EV leadership position. Great conversation 👍 it will be interesting to watch it all unfold in time.
@@mobayguy The tragedy with Toyota is they are EASILY CAPABLE of making a world class EV RIGHT NOW - for whatever reason, and it isn't waiting for some as yet undeveloped mystery secret technology, they don't want to do it. Similarly, when Herbert Diess tried accelerating the switch to EV at VW, he was unceremoniously sacked. As I mentioned, VW are third in the rankings of spending someone else's money.
@ouethojlkjn Hi Ouethojlkjn, You make some good points & agree on the facts. In my opinion, Toyota has defined for themselves (and that's key), what will be the right combination of market conditions and technology they want to launch on scale. Also, and this is key also; despite what they say publicly, corporations are motivated by theor own self-interest, never the 'collective' good and not always what may seem obviously reasonable to we, the public. In summary, time will reveal Toyota's strategy, and the result will wither be success or failure if that strategy. Companies of such scale are always trying working the future and they either succeed or fail. Great conversation, Thanks.
Is it fair to say current ev are mainly for city driving. Yes if the real highway range is 500km then inter city driving is possible. At the moment battery is still too expensive That is why lately, Toyota and Lexus hybrid sale are high. Eventually how much ev can take over hybrid cars is questionable because charging in many countries are still a rare occurrences and if they manage to put in more charging station many countries do not have enough electricity capacity.
A 70 year old woman from Queensland Australia drove right around the coast in an EV five years ago after her husband died. She did it easily and many places she stopped for the night were impressed and gave her free charging. Now we have alpha male’s quibbling about how scary buying an EV is.
@geraldbutler5484 Can you do that in other countries ... if there are not enough charging station there you just cannot do it .... Ha ha No changing no travel
Tesla has a very popular and profitable, well established global supercharger network. It’s easy to do manufacturers should’ve done it a long time ago. They are just waiting for some kind of magic to happen.
While I would agree with you, Sam, about practically every other legacy automaker selling BEVs, it particularly grinds with Toyota. Why? Because Toyota traditionally leads. Where Toyota leads, others follow. They've brought many improvements to the masses, from Hybrids to super reliable motoring with less servicing. Toyota also has had a dream which was to go from ICEVs to FCEVs through clear steps which they planned from decades ago. Simply, it went ICEV > ICEV Hybrid > ICEV H2 > FCEV. The last two steps they have been experimenting with for several years, race testing the combution H2 engine, and testing the market with their H2 Fuel Cell vehicles. They are heavily committed to this step by step progress. And Toyota doesn't like shifting from the plan. So, for them it's not about profits, it's about dictating the future of transport. Plus, Japan was committed to going H2, though I'm not so sure now. And you can bet that Toyota's darling friends in the Oil/Gas Industry are backing Toyota with every anti-BEV movement they make. The problem the O/GI and Toyota have is the lack of H2 infrastructure. The O/GI want it for transport, industrial, domestic applications. Toyota wants it for transport. Nobody wants to pay for it when the numbers are so bad against straight electricity, supplied by renewables. You'd think they'd change, but their sheer stubborness has helped them succeed in the past. To be honest, we need to be aware of them because they are ramping up their resistance, rather than pivoting to cleaner energy.
If legacy carmakers actually have production lines working and are working towards lowering costs overall via some kind of learning curve (like Kia/Hyundai), falling battery prices might save them. Shuttering production lines until they get a better plan like GM/Toyota did will drop them out of the race.
These companies make back the money through their affiliated finance companies that provide hire purchasing at high pretty high interest rates. Not many of us can cough their lump outright to pay for a car.
Just Saying - Buying emission credits can lead to a death spiral. In 1990 Intel's market share was 72% and TSMC was 10%. Today Intel's market share is 5% as they buy emission credits to add FABs to existing sites and TSMC's market share is 53% without the need to buy any emission credits.
I don’t believe sales of electric vehicles will reach 30% here in the U.S. in the next 2 years. It’s a shame that Toyota doesn’t take EV manufacturing seriously. They build very reliable ICE vehicles, and could build great electric vehicles if they really set their minds to it.
Hard to say what the timing will be. Here in San Jose, EV sales were already 25% of new cars last year. I expect the mid-west states will the be slowest to adapt due to the common mindset that gas is king and few people care about pollution or climate change. In Norway new car sales are already at 90% EVs. Other countries are moving ahead at a rapid rate.
Embarking on a new product, with obvious initial losses, in what reserves are for - to tide them over the start before profits come in. Problem is legacy makers haven't innovated, like Tesla. They follow the same old path, hoping to succeed. No way.
I just don't get how EV's cost more to build, than an equivalent combustion car. Take apart just an engine, lay the parts out on a table, and count the number of precision moving parts there are. Or, take apart a modern transmission, and let's get a parts count on that. then, let's get a total cost on the emission controls components of a combustion car. With an EV, you're getting rid of the engine, transmission, and pollution control systems. The savings there should be more then enough to offset the cost of a couple of very simple (albeit powerful) electric motors, and a pretty good size battery. The difference in cost with the electronics isn't as much as you might think, it's much easier to electronically commutate a rotating magnetic field, than it is to maintain perfect fuel/air ratio, optimum ignition timing, and apply just the right amount of exhaust gas recirculation, to make the engine deliver the performance, while maintaining emissions within acceptable limits.
Must be cost of batteries and engineering new production methods. EVs not quite as simple in real life as it seems they should be. Remember as well how expensive flatscreen LCD TV's were at first.
It's not just about the materials and labour, it takes a mammoth amount of person hours and $ to transform entrenched multi trillion dollar companies that have been around for donkeys years. Factories (closing old ones, opening new ones), tooling, supply chain, hiring people who know what they're doing, dealing with unions, training service and sales departments not to mention the products have to be reliable and something people want to buy.
In other words legacy auto makers are too spoiled and don't know how to make an actual investment. Too accustomed to guaranteed or heavily subsidised investments or easy ones the government have already done all the heavy lifting for.
You actually have it backwards most automakers actually right around Breakeven with their Eevee sales the problem is when you factor in the capex which is pretty much a one-time expense that's where the massive losses come in generally in the world of manufacturing every time you double sales you increase profitability by anywhere from 5 to 10%.... everyone knows this but when Ford has all the dealers telling them hey we've got enough EVS on our Lots they're not selling they have no choice but to cut back production and the more they cut back production the more it actually ends up costing them per unit a car like the ionic 6 is a perfect example the ionic 6 is about the same price as a Tesla Model 3 however the model 3 is about the same size as a camry inside while the ionic 6 is about the same size as a Corolla. So people look at both and choose the model 3
Your comment section is getting wilder by the day Viking. Great job educating people on the issues but I don't think it's getting through to everyone. Main issue with profitability has to be outsourcing the costliest parts like battery production & pack building. Bring it in house and there is at least a chance at profits.
Just driven all across France on Motorways. Availability of fast charging is good. Peak travel time for easter holidays and I did not have to wait anywhere. More chargers are still bring build. However, 99% charging at home sounds high. Drive through any city and it looks hard to achieve this given the infrastructure. What are European cities doing to support EV charging at home?
Think you misunderstood he said a typical EV driver does 99% of charging at home. The average of current EV drivers being those that have the ability to charge at home
If Ford are losing $30,000 then most companies will be losing a lot less than the average. I saw somewhere cars are traditionally sold at cost and profit is made in spare parts. Tesla's disadvantage wasn't that EVs don't have much to go wrong but that they don't have that many old cars on the road.
Another factor often missed is companies like Ford and GM get the equivalent of $10K in ZEV credits for each EV. If they don't produce enough EVs, they have to buy those credits from someone else like Tesla. So they can easily afford to lose $10K on each EV and still come out ahead.
Why do they make a loss on electric vehicles? If an evs has fewer parts and requires less maintenance. If should cost less to make. Legacy automakers can not compete against Chinese electric vehicles. The cars that legacy automakers build are expense and have fewer features. That's why. They are driven by greed. Not what consumers want.
They lose money because they are amortizing the development and tooling costs for the vehicle. For [a very simplified] example, if their engineering, tooling and manufacturing costs for a vehicle line is $100,000, then they sell two cars for 25,000 each, then they have lost 25,000 for each car they’ve sold. (Obviously these figures are for example only.)
Having engaged with many people who are under the spell of ICE car experience and propaganda, the charging, and range 'requirements' that US consumers demand are silly. They simply can't conceive of a change in their habits that actual EV owners soon realize - 85% (not 99%) of their charging will be at home and 15% will be at chargers. Over and over again, I get nasty commenters insisting that I'm spending half my life charging my car. It's similar to when cell phones replaced land lines - a lot resistance until one actually had a cell phone. Then one realizes that they just don't use their home land line anymore. But Americans are stubborn.
@@Markcain268 Of course, and I've always acknowledged that as really the only legitimate reason to worry about charging issues with EVs (especially Teslas). People who can't charge at home have a strong reason to hesitate - I always admit that up front.
Hey CATL Where is the SHENXING BATTERY FOR ALL YOU PROMISED US IN STAGED EVENT UNVEILING? FOR BEING THE BIGGEST BATTERY MAKER YOUR OUT PUT ON YOUR PROMISES ARE THE SMALLEST , SLOWEST AND VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT LIKE ALL THE OTHER BATTERY PROMISES BY EVERYONE ELSE.
No no no no no no no no no no. Most people will not charge at home. Most people park in the driveway or on the street and will not have the capability. They will not pull out long extension cords to charge every day. They want the ability to do so...... But they will use fast charging at convenient places almost exclusively. The average person is going to be much different from the early enthusiastic adopters
You can install an outdoor outlet (and many do) to charge in the driveway. Most EVs come with a 20-24' charging cord. The average person quickly finds out that with EV charging at home, it takes 5 seconds to charge (plug in) and paying 1/3 the cost of gas. Avoiding wasting 10-20 minutes driving to and fueling at a gas station is a strong motivator too.
@@tesla_tap you're talking about slow charging overnight with a little tiny extension cord... Medium charging at home will require pulling out a heavy heavy duty extension cord....240v...30-50 amp. People who don't park in the garage right next to a charger are NOT going to do that every night and then put it away every morning.... Most people will need 50 ft to 100 ft.,.... You can forget about it being cheaper.. it will not be when it's taxed for road taxes.... It will end up being more expensive guaranteed... Because there's a sheet load of new infrastructure that it has to pay for. Then they have to pay to put in the receptacles.... And charger at home too... Most people are used to going to gas stations on their way to work or home every single day.. they're on virtually every corner.... Half of America stops to buy beer on their way home every single day...... If you put the chargers in the sensible places... Existing convenience stores and gas stations.... it's not a big deal. If you're a total moron and you put them in out of the way places ...nobody will use them.... And you're going to have much slower adoption.
@@MudflyWatersman - Lots of variables. I have two Supercharger locations that are closer to my home than gas stations (although I don't need them). Around hear in suburbia, maybe 1 out of 500 homes have a driveway longer than 20 feet. I've seen plenty of EV owners attach a Wall Connector (with 24' cable) outside of the garage and park and connect with the car in the driveway. The Tesla Wall Connector is waterproof. Installation costs will vary a lot depending on the wiring. installation costs are typically $500-2000 and there are often utility credits and IRS credits that can defray most of the cost. I'm sure there are situations where the ideal connection point makes it too costly, but it's not the norm and often easier than people expect.
@@tesla_tap given the choice of having to drag out an extension cord at night..... And put it away in the morning...... Or stop at a charger for 5 minutes while getting a cup of coffee..... I'd take the charger and coffee. Being able to charge at home is definitely key...... But it's not the end-all. There's simply times you need to go somewhere now and your car doesn't have enough charge..... It has to be convenient to recharge it,.... It's actually no different than refuelling with gas.
@@MudflyWatersman - Takes me 5 seconds to connect at home. It's easy even for those that park outside - maybe 10 seconds if you have to go an extra 10 feet. Really not an issue. But nothing wrong with those that want to Supercharge instead. The key is there are so many ways to charge and each owner picks the best way for themselves. Note that the best cost savings come from charging overnight when the rates are very low. Charging at Superchargers is cheaper than gas, but not as much.
That's because they are the only ones selling EVs in volume. Right now, EVs are a small slice of the overall car market so there's not a lot of room for multiple winners. When the EV market expands, there will be room for other automakers to make a profit.
@@twostate7822 That does not explain why we only have 2 BEV companies making money. Surely other BEV makes can look at a Model Y or the BYD equivalent and see what people are buying. Many have and are selling near copies. But they don't sell. Why?
@@justinr9753 I would say that overall most people are losing money on EVs. Not the fault of EVs. Some think it is easy money. They are bound to fail. Some are underfunded. etc
When will Tesla introduce their less expensive EV and when will it go into production? My guess is that we'll see it within the next 12 months with production underway before the end of 2025.
The Electric Viking made a mistake: the top managers of ICE manufacturers will not choose long-term visions or long-term profits but short-term bonuses. Since they understood that their companies were doomed because they cannot compete against BYD and Tesla, they decided to play against their shareholders by launching a propaganda campaign against the electric cars. By doing that, they will be able to collect large year-end bonuses from now till the moment when the electric cars will have taken the market. The market is evolving too fast for them.
Making a loss on selling EV's is not a problem for a limited period and a healthy company, but Western ICE-car makers are swimming in debt, with low rates, and cannot make the transition according to the laws of capitalism. Artificial subsidies, donations, protectionism by the democratic US government can not prevent a coming collapse.
But EVs ALSO need to look good. Hyundai ioniq 6 is ugly as hell! Tesla look good, but inside it's like driving a ps5. If Tesla 3 had a "normal" interior, with the driving info in front of my face instead of being in the middle of the car, and had physical buttons for AC and "Radio", then it could be a great choice, but not the way the are. IF I had the budget to buy a good new car NOW, I wouldn't by an EV because they're still very far from what I want/need in a car. In a "couple" of years, when we have better and cheaper EVs, then the sales will sky rocket, but not before that I think...
If you like the Tesla Model 3/Y, but feel you have to have a speedometer in front of you, there are quite a few third-part options that plug in to do that. Seeems most people adapt within a few hours and can easily see what's needed, even though it's a couple of inches to the right of the steering wheel. As for physical buttons for HVAC and the radio, there are fixed button positions on the display that are always available. Tesla having automatic HVAC avoids a need to make many changes. Even seat heating and steering wheel heat have automatic settings. Do a test drive - you might be surprised how good it is. Then again, if not right for you, there are other EVs available.
Ford sold about 73,000 BEV in 2023 and their BEV unit lost $4.5bn. That's more than $61,000 per car. GM don´t declare the results of their BEV unit. Lucid lose $400,000 per car. Rivian not yet at break even. Volvo and Stellantis say they make about 3% profit on BEV sales. Tesla last year made on average $9,000 profit per car sold. They reduced the cost of cars made by $3,000 per car in 2023.
Remember that that was the situation the Hyundai Group found themselves in not that long ago……it’s still got the legacy ICE liabilities to deal with. How did Tesla allow them to prosper so quickly ?.
Legacy automakers should just wait until parts suppliers can provide most of the car including battery systems and software. That will also require battery production to ramp up to the level that can supply all automakers and more to bring the cost of the batteries down. The good news is the battery pack is such a large percentage of the cost of an EV the cost falls as batteries get cheaper. That's a huge cost takeout potential ICE doesn't have. The production of ICE parts has already been optimized to the limit and can't drop like batteries can.
@@frankcoffey The drivers assistance stuff has been kind of orpahaned while the work of FSD. You should be getting the FSD V12 (Supervised) 1 month trials.
CATL have already stated that a 60 kWh battery pack will cost less than $3000 by the middle of THIS year! How much cheaper Do things need to get before Legacy auto will just get on with it? To just say that the auto industry needs to wait for everyone else to ramp up and help them out. Is not going to work. Bear in mind legacy auto dumped all the chipmakers the second Covid hit and many of them went out of business and then there was surprise surprise a chip shortage…. No one does anyone any favours in this industry.
Legacy Auto makers are screwed every which way from Sunday. Doomed if they do and Doomed if they don't. Just waiting for the next innovation that will hand them the pink slip...
Tesla has shown them since 2012 how it can be done. Tesla even makes all it patents available for free. Legacy auto putting their collective heads in the sand isn't very effective.
legacy might be waiting for a new standard in battery tech, which makes sense with LFP and now sodium ion coming in full commercialisation in the past couple of years - even EV specialists like Telsa and BYD have to invest massively to make the switch, so it seems like an ideal time to transition also you have specialist battery companies like northvolt which legacy can use to temporarily delay the massive capex of building out battery tech infrastructure, take a hit to long-term competitiveness due to lack of vertical integration, but you mitigate massive risk in the short term, especially if you go all in on battery tech infrastructure at the wrong time you'd think with time in market and existing infrastructure legacy automakers can offset lack of vertical integration of battery tech and still remain competitive but that remains to be seen, but maybe that was due to lack of off-the-shelf options, now they exists in the form of BYD and northvolt so who knows, might see some massive changes in the next couple of years as legacy catch up
Waiting while they should be building their BEV engineering moxy. Bad idea. Good cells in a poorly engineered car is still a fail. Battery companies sell to the companies that can buy the cells in number.
I am definitely buying my first EV when they cost +/- $30 000, they can charge in 7 minutes and go about 450 km on 1 charge in the coldest weather, uphill, with a caravan and I get to use all the functions (eg, heaters, seat warmers, snow breaking, a/c).I must be able to up-sell my EV after 10 000km or 5 years. Please let me know which EV can I buy that will meet this criteria.
So you are travelling caravan, salesman or something then? You do this every day do you? Wonder what all the servicing costs are and fuel costs are on your $30,000 ice. Always conveniently forgetting about the cost of these things, and total cost of ownership. it’s very simple if not already electric vehicles will be cheaper to own and run and then it doesn’t matter what you want. People will buy according to what is in their wallet.
No, they are selling ev cars at a loss because they are required to in order to sell any cars at all in many parts of the world, including China. It is a cost of doing business, and while they view it like that, it will just be a burden around their necks
