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I read both Market Wizards books decades ago - twice. Are there more? I knew this guy had to be pretty smart to write such good books, but he's really impressive on video. He talks just like Feynman! Yes, obviously a New Yorker, but his voice is the same too. Great books.
At 38:24 "It was amazing how badly the system did when it stopped working". This makes me wonder why someone in this situation wouldn't then short his picks instead of purchasing them, I imagine a trader would be comfortable doing that. A bit like how George Costanza in Seinfeld began to do the opposite of what his natural inclinations were to start having success.
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It depends on whether the previously blow up of the system was due to continuous losses, or just a few big losses at the end. If it is the second case, then it may not be profitable just going the other direction.
I enjoyed this interview but my inner skeptic kept on whispering in my ear : "how do we know this wasn't just blind luck ?" I can accept that before the arrival of desktop computers, it was possible for a human expert to beat the other humans. These days, i'm much more doubtful. I can see why people want to believe in star traders, because their stories offer hope that perhaps - with enough hard work and perseverance - you can emulate their success. Personally I believe that markets are effectively random, that there's no longer any conceivable 'edge', and that you're better off just sitting back and harvesting the risk premium. With that attitude, I guess I'm never going to be featured in one of Mr Schwager's books :)
Hi Chris, thanks for watching and commenting. That is a perfectly fair comment, and I think Jack would say luck and good timing are important variables and probably do have some impact on the success of each trader, especially early on. However, over a long enough period of time and throughout different markets, luck becomes less important and skill matters more (this is why we asked Jack about the track record question). It sort of reminds me of Michael Mauboussin's, "Alpha and the Paradox of Skill". You can download the paper here, tinyurl.com/ffs96emz. Here is the summary from the paper: *There are two aspects to success in investing: proficiency and choosing an attractive game. The key to an attractive game is dispersion in skill, where more skillful participants can benefit at the expense of less skillful ones. *The paradox of skill says that in activities where results combine luck and skill, luck is often more important in shaping outcomes even as skill improves. In many competitive interactions it is the relative level of skill that matters, not the absolute level of skill. In many fields, including investing, the dispersion of skill is shrinking, which leaves more to luck. *There is a positive correlation between the breadth of opportunities and the dispersion of fund returns. *Pockets of inefficiency persist. These include diversity breakdowns, institutions competing with individuals, and trading with distressed counterparties. Thanks again for watching!
How lucky could you get in a casino? Could you get lucky 50 times out of 100? Probably not But you can be lucky 40 times out of a 100 in trading and you can still make a killing
