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I've heard estimates of Russian losses nearing 20,000 about 2 weeks ago. Not sure how accurate that was but if true would mean they are over that by now.
Class notes: BBC’s analysis of Russian losses (oddly in Russian) 1) admission by Russia 1351 deaths 2) more than 10k missing 3) of the 1083 found: A) 20% were officers B) 30 upper middle, 30 middle C) Russians admit most often to officer deaths because they have their bodies returned. D) 15% paratroopers, and a number of special forces. E) 80% from impoverished locations 4) consequences: the professionals are going to run out soon and many more are going to die 5) Moscow has no deaths 6) This propaganda-lie isn’t going work over time when one would expect their loved ones returned 7) this loss of leadership means there is no way to maintain execution on maneuvers because “ The most dangerous thing in the world is the second lieutenant with a compass” 8) the paratroopers are just about the only folks left - and they’re combat effective - but they’ll dwindle quickly 9) special forces dying is unexpected and very demoralizing, a huge loss of life meaning: 10) they are relying on special forces to do common tasks. Big take aways: No matter how much you control the media, being lied to about casualties can create unsustainable anger in mothers who’ve lost their children. Not only can Putin not keep up with this degree of loss but the areas where the losses are occurring are places where truly problematic internal civil disobedience are likely.
The problem is a lot of where the conscripts are from the more poor rural areas or people from ethnic groups who struggle to get their voice heard and even get killed for doing so . The officers are probably closely associated with Putin and supportive of the " special operation " so will see their sons as hero's Civil unrest is unlikely to happen because the people with the power are not being affected . We are assuming Russian mothers are simalir to our mothers . Looking at some of the phone calls they are having with their mothers is showing It's not the case.
I was reminded of the lyrics to another song: Black Sabbath's "War Pigs." "Politicians hide themselves away. They only started the war. Why should they go out to fight? They leave that all to the poor."
Poor boys fighting rich man's war? Who made them RAPE women? Murder the men with their hands bound? Bomb homes and hospitals? C'mon. At some point 'just following orders' just doesn't wash.
The empathy and compassion in your voice when you discuss the lost broke something loose in me tonight. I was fairly young when the post-2001 middle-east conflicts started and was kindof able to ignore it until the age i realized we were lied into that war. I've had enough of governments sending their deliberately maleducated poor off to die for the benefits of the wealthy. Their families deserve better. Humans deserve better. The money wasted on these conflicts could bring all of them into a better standard of living. It's absurd, and it's wretched, and we need people like you to break people like me loose from the grinding apathy. Thank you, friend.
Russia isn't bringing their dead troops back to Russia. Can you imagine us doing that? Remember when tRump wanted to keep the Covid infected on the cruise ship so he could keep his numbers low? No I can't imagine it either!
And defending your homeland provides a significant number of advantages. .. Strategically and mentally. Plus, it seems then first waves of Russian soldiers truly had no idea they were going into a war.
This video touched of the tragedy of war for families. I'm a Vietnam vet and the hardest duty was stateside at Norfolk doing causality assistance. We would be notified of killed, wounded and missing and then notify next of kin. Norfolk is a military town so lots of families. I was an E4 at the time so was duty driver, an officer rode with me and was the one who did the actual notification. People were in a panic when they saw us drive by in the duty vehicle. I was also part of the funeral honor guard so I got to see the effects of war on family up close and personal. Russia has always been pretty uncaring about troop safety and putting folks in harms way. I have a lot of problems with the US military but they do not treat their personnel nearly as bad.
Although I was a mere kid at the time, my family was strongly against the war in Vietnam . . . but they raised me to respect veterans of every war, for having served and for the horrors that our troops saw, endured, and were sometimes forced to inflict, and the pain they carried over many decades. This country needs to understand the true cost of war, and we need to take care of veterans and their families. Respect to you, sir.
In Mariupol, Ukrainians proposed a brief pause to allow collection of dead on both sides. Russia refused. They leave their own soldiers’ bodies on the street to rot and get eaten by dogs.
My dad helped treat the returning Vietnam soldiers for the Army, he said the some of the most emotionally difficult soldiers to treat were the severely burned and mutilated. A major difference of casualties in Vietnam were we were able to save the lives of soldiers with far more severe injuries than any prior war. That however means that we have far more veterans with significantly life altering wounds and psychological trauma. That and the many friends that did manage to return from Iraq and Afghanistan, many with significant injuries, are why I get so angry when a bunch of civilian often privileged a-holes decide to make VA funding a political prop for reelection or to use as fodder for their red vs. blue party BS. Veterans are not political pawns for the rich jackoffs that mostly never served to use.
"The most dangerous thing in the world is a 2nd Lt. with a compass." This had me laughing out loud as I flashed back to a night on Fort Drum, our platoon following a hopelessly lost Butterbar around as he tried for the umpteenth time to get us back to the CP. Good times!
In the british army "Nothing is more dangerous than a 2nd lieutenant with a map and a plan! I remember driving around the german countryside at night and actually passing our exercise location twice in a couple of hours (regular spot, new 2nd Lt.). I'm pretty sure he'd managed to piss off the squadron sgt major who decided to teach him a lesson.
My dad was a 22 year old butter bars, fresh out OTS, when he was made commander of a recon group, Project Raven, flying out of North Africa. He worshipped his Master Sargent, who was a source of all useful military info. and adapt at "liberating" anything he needed to keep the planes flying and build the camera mounts for the planning of bombing runs up the boot of Italy.
Also, this kind of thing means that when the truth does come out they'll get news of several weeks (or months) worth of casualties at once so it will hit even harder.
I remember when my son turned 18 and had to sign up for whatever reason it is. When Bush jr. started his lovely forever war I said "so help me if he reinstates the draft I'll be one of the first mothers climing the WH fence". Mother's and wives are going to demand answers.
I'm gonna tell you at least 1 Russian that I knew of who lived in Moscow before this whole thing went to hell is indeed dead. He was my brother's friend and didn't have a lot of favorable things to say about Putin or his government. Had a German girlfriend and a child who should both be back in Germany by now. He was also more educated and had family in Ukraine and had been to Ukraine before the war.
I used to work in oil and my company had periodically worked in Russia at the time, a little over a decade ago. I made several friends with Russians and Ukrainians who worked in the refineries while we were there working. One of my observations concerning the people and their view on the Russian government, particularly Putin (remember, this was a decade ago) ranged between being a fan through indifference. Those who liked him did so for one of two reasons. First came primarily from family members and management of the company that acted as our agent. These guys I was certain were oligarchs. They had duffel bags stuffed with cash, rubles, dollars, and euros. They lived in honest to goodness palaces (the older, more senior members, and close family members). These people liked Putin because he is a strongman and doesn’t dilly dally, he just does his business and moves on. Never mind the mess or suffering left in the wake, his business is handled. The second reason I heard people say they liked him was that he “stated during a speech that we have no crime because I am the biggest criminal. Anyone who wants to be a criminal needs my permission or I will destroy them.” The people who had this take believed the nation was safe from common criminals because Putin professed to be a godfather like figure who wouldn’t allow smaller criminals to exist, he sees them as competition and takes them out. The second opinion I found in the people I met was that it did not matter who was in charge because Russia has always been run by a strongman and always will. Russians do not know another way to live. So in the end, it doesn’t matter which one is in power, it may as well be Putin. He’s no better than the next one but he’s no worse either. Anyway, just an observation I had when I was over there working.
dude, imagine dying for less than nothing for a government that lies about it and won't even try to get your body back home as the final fuck you... that's f'ed up.
There's a lot of interesting stuff independent ru journalists put out on sites like BBC that doesn't get through the language barrier. Like the time when Ukrainians tried to bait Wagner criminals to court through Belarus, but Lukashenko thought Putin sent them to overthrow him and apprehended them before the Ukrainians.
Last time I was this early Italy still had the most ridiculed meme military. Special ops could have been intended to reinforce the insurgents and Ukrainian resistance fighters that corrupt FSB agents were supposed to recruit (like US special ops in the early stages of Afghanistan) and then got left hanging when that resistance didn't materialize.
Putin can declare whatever he wants. He will need Ukraine to "cooperate". What if Ukraine decides to keep on fighting, regardless of Putin's declaration? Victory achieved my butt. He started the war, but he cannot unilaterally stop it [under the assumption he doesn't unconditionally surrender].
Part of me wonders if these atrocities against the Ukranians are not a deliberate attempt to provoke NATO into direct intervention. Cause if Putin can claim Russia lost to NATO and not just to Ukraine then he could at least save some face.
Interesting that even our little privates are taught that they MAY have to lead at sometime IF things go badly. I had a few uncles in the Army in Vietnam who ended up with one of their Privates calling the shots until they were able to meet up with another team.
One of the main tasks you would have expected the Special Ops troops to perform was to link up with those armed pro-Russian groups in Ukraine that didn't actually exist. Could the high rate of casualties in that arm be further evidence that the Special Ops troops went in to rendevous with those non-existent allies, and got caught by the Ukrainians?
This was exactly my thoughts. There was a lot of "hunting for saboteurs" early on that I suspect may have been those guys trying to do what they could with what they had.
My first reaction to the percentage of officers killed was a Flashback to an old Doonesbury Cartoon. Specifically, when Ambassador Duke meets a Parrot, and realizes, "Good Lord, this bird's been to The Nam!" When he me the bird, it squawked, "Frag the Lieutenant, frag the Lieutenant. AwRAWK!" Given how well things are going for Soviet Russia, I would be surprised if many of these deaths were NOT "Friendly Fire."
There is clearly resistance within the military to this war. The CIA has had gotten very detailed and accurate intelligence regarding troop movements. Also, I don't think it is an accident that their troops have abandoned so much equipment that is undamaged. Their have also been cases of troops just not wanting to fight.
Don't forget the ordinary, poorly educated/informed recent recruits were told they were going on exercises, so their feelings of being cheated must have undermined morale and commitment.
Think of your boss's nephew who's been put in a supervisory position on the factory floor to "give him some experience" before he's promoted to senior management.
@@puddel9079 A second lieutenant is a extremally junior officer. typically it mean they joined the military less than a year and a half ago. You really should think of them as more of a officer in training than a real officer. The issue starts when you have a second lieutenant who is on his own and thinks he is hot shit. Even though he joined 6 months ago he out ranks the sergeant major who joined back in 1985, and because our hypothetical second lieutenant thinks he is the next Patton he will over rule the good advice from the sergeant and do something appallingly stupid. In the US army it's emphasized that as a 2nd LT your platoon sergeant knows 100 more than you, and you should listen to anything they tell you. But the Russians don't have that option so things could get very messy for them.
@@JustMeELC "We'll be greeted as liberators" is pretty much always nonsense. If they finally decided to delete North Korea's dictatorship it's an open question if the army would be welcomed by the populace even if they came with a free side of beef for every man, woman and child.
The people who shared them are still calling our military too “woke” & “emasculated”, sometimes based on comparisons to Russian & Chinese recruitment ads, though.
@@katiehettinger7857 There's been evidence that this has been done. I don't know on what scale. Even to the point of informing the deceased's next of kin directly.
@@katiehettinger7857 What? Putin is slaughtering the russians in the east of Ukraine 🙄 Mariupol was at least 90% russian speaking & putin literally slaughtered the majority & bombed the area to dust! What don't you understand exactly!
Even the Ukrainian intelligence has not found casualties from the city of Moscow. It seems that soldiers from there are being strategically excluded, which would preserve political stability there.
They are bending over backwards to keep Moscow casualties low...why? because Russia is a HUGE but the population is really concentrated in Moscow and and a few other big cities. If they lose troops in the low concentration countryside its harder for people to put a clear picture of the loses together. In a mega-city like Moscow families would be in communication and by sheer power of numbers people would be able to keep an accurate body count and see through the lies. Also, the powerful reside in the big cities. Even Putin understands that if he angers too many of these people he won't last long in power.
All dictators throughout history have needed a second army close to home to balance the ones coming back from the wars / frontiers. 'Guard' armies, 'Court Batallions', 'The Old Guard', they've had many names, but all dictators have them. The movie 'Valkyrie' shows the Nazis' one in action.
I have always believed that the war in Afghanistan did more to bring about the fall of the USSR than anything else. Let’s hope this war is the end for Putin!
Don't forget: These numbers are 3 weeks old by now. 10,000 dead were a conservative guess at that point. By now the losses should have risen even further.
Alternatively, that some people in positions of power in Russia want Putin to fail asap so he can be replaced with one of them sooner rather than later and so are subtly sabotaging his ability to effectively accomplish anything. We've seen a lot of politicians in the US willing to seriously damage the country for the sake of personal political advancements so I have to assume it's at least a possibility there too.
Those poor areas are going to begin to suffer the productivity losses that followed WWI. Especially if these are rural farm areas, or even industrial areas, this will be felt, and will add to the discontent as well.
The the demographic imbalance in the hinterlands leans way to the older, uneducated people, who are dirt poor. It's also where most of the produce grown in Russia comes from, Who will work the fields if the young men never return?
and a lot of those areas are ALREADY depressed and facing worker shortages due to their families shipping kids out "to have a better shot at a productive life" BEFORE all this mess hit.
Another thing to consider: these are KIA. Typically, two to four times the number of KIA will be wounded, many of them with serious injuries that will take them out of action.
I think it's a bit naive to assume the civilian population is caring at all. Eventhough the losses are on a different scale, when GWB started his two wars, the propaganda machine was still celebrating the "progress" and "accomplishment" and a majority of people was eating it up. Even with 100,000 deaths, only 1% of families would have a casualty among them (and that's assuming 15 people per family, if you were to go with a more nuclear family, you'd need 300k+). It's easy for huge chunks of the populace to not even think about it, regardless of brainwashing.
It's obvious that Beau is a humanitarian who feels bad about losses, even Russian ones, but especially when the losses are of the powerless and downtrodden. It must be noted that American families of military personnel dread the arrival at their door of a respectful, formally dressed, representative with a letter from their loved one's commanding officer, even from the President with a notification of a medal awarded. The respect and honor given to every fallen member of our services is impressive, and helps the grieving family somewhat. A cynic might say that it is intended to prevent anti-government responses, though that is not always the case. In this respect as well, Russia is a backwards country. This somberly presented information suggests that, in his attempt to destroy Ukraine, Czar Vladimir the Mad is actually destroying the Russian military and, possibly, Russia itself.
The truth is that altruism and wise self-interest aren't so distinctly seperated as we're often taught to think. In the long term, evil tends to be self-destructive (or at least more expensive). Systems and people that work to align self-interest with common-interest tend to prosper in stability. Those which seek to treat everything like a zero-sum game tend to get a negative-sum outcome. Antisocial (the clinical definition: that which is actively destructive to social groups, not simply being socially withdrawn) behavior in a social species is symptomatic of mental disorders and doomed systems. Healthy thought patterns, actions, and systems seek to align interests for shared/mutual benefit and can readily acknowledge multiple contributing motivations, as much as our society tries to force us into speaking and thinking about such things in binary (selfish/selfless, ingroup/outgroup, etc) terms. Antisocial personality disorders are (not-coincidentally) usually problems for people to even effectively work toward their own self-interest, and those who focus too much on helping others through self-sacrifice tend to do less good than those who help others while making sure to take care of themselves as well. Some may say that outlook is cynical, but to me, that's why dispite how much harder our goals are than those who seek destruction and domination our side is stronger and tends to win with remarkable consistency on long timescales.
Actually, it would be far more respectful and honorable to not treat citizens like cannon fodder, sending them off to economic wars that they pay for with their lives.
Regarding the mothers/wives not knowing where their sons/husbands are: Russia is a big country. Big, sparsely populated and tightly controlled. They can _easily_ tell each of the 20,000 families that _their_ son/husband/father is one of the "1,300".
@@jonas7510 Really. You get a telegram from the MOD that your husband valiantly died in combat and here, have a military pension and your first instinct is go on the internet and ask who else is in such a situation? Besides, the stories we hear from captured Russian soldiers speak about the culture shock they've experienced on seeing brick houses, laptops and _paved roads (!)_ leading to every Ukrainian village. If you come from an area without paved roads, maybe you are not used to the internet either.
So if you are a parent of a Russian soldier if your son is killed you will get $15,000 for compensation. BUT there is a 95% probability they will deny your son ever existed and not pay a dime. Damn, thank goodness they love their government so much, I would burn the place down.
Man, the cost for Russia will be immense. I’m thinking of the survivors. The PTSD will be huge, the veteran care cost, or cost of not caring, will linger for decades.
Disfigured veterans of the Afghan war are still very present, very visible on Russian streets, and make you feel uncomfortable and guilty. They don't need another generation of that. Geopoliticists tend to think that the Russian population is crunching over the next few years to the extent this might be the last conventional war they are capable of fighting. For Putin it's now or never, force the West to back off, or implode.
There have been reports of bodies with broken wrists or shrapnel injuries with two gunshot wounds to the head . I think its fair to say they have thought ahead about what you have typed and think its " cheaper " to not have them at all . I am not a religious person . But there is a special place in hell for the higher ups in the Russian command .
@@hannahdyson7129 - that is disturbing if confirmed..... My comment specifically was about that I think you either pay for the care of your veterans on the front end (VA benefits, health care, mental health, social services for them and their families) or you end up paying for it anyway (poor outcomes for mental health, physical health problems, reduced productivity for the economy, and the problems that are a result like divorce, homelessness, substance abuse, crime, incarceration etc.) Either way you pay for it. I think better veteran care likely reduces the severity length of time a society has to deal with that post-war burden that veterans endure, but that is just my guess. I would bet there were some people on the Russian side who watched terrible stuff unfold and felt helpless to stop it, less they end up with a bullet to the head. I think about that scenario as being a good recipe for a substance abuse problem. I do not envy anyone who has had to see such horrible things as people see in war.
I sure can hear the frustration in ur voice concerning Russian military, information channels, leadership & not being honest with those who lost loved ones. Ur respect 4 our armed services & the way they are trained from the top down 2 take control of military situations which arise in battle are evident. U explained everything so well regarding Russian lack of concern in military process, care of personel & communications. I can hear a deep sorrow in ur voice 4 the extreme & unnecessary loss of many young lives due 2 Putin's mode of operation & disgusting military leadership. If I'm wrong pls let me kno. Beau, u have the biggest heart I've seen in a long time. TKS
Shout out to Putin for single-handedly restoring the prestige and morale of the entire western world. Also, based on the GOP’s undying support for Putin, I guess they knew Putin was going to give us this gift all along! That’s some incredible foresight! Thanks Tucker!
Honest question: With the break down of the experienced core leadership combined with a surge of conscripts and reservists, is there a risk of soldiers just refusing to fight? Or over-reactions from green officers turning reluctance into outright mutiny? It appears to me that you have a group of soldiers who don't want to be there paired with officers who don't know how to lead without resorting to violence and fear, and that rarely ends well.
One of the things I've heard a number of times is that the Chechynans are being used mostly as anti-retreat and "commissar duties". Granted I do not know how accurate these allegations are but that would make sense.
Without evidence to support the statement I'm going to say right now, this is already happening. There are people refusing. The only evidence that I will give, is the group of soldiers, conscripts, that are suing the government. Not sure how well that's going to go...
I've been wondering if the crew on that battle ship just didn't have the stomach to keep doing what putin wants them to do and took care of what they could.
Another thing to consider is the long term economic impacts of losing so many conscripts. These soldiers come from somewhere, typically the working class. While economic impacts now are harsh... Some may last for decades.
@@zesky6654 just with oil, those at the top will be fine yes, the leadership will keep buying palaces, expensive cars and yachts. For those Russian not part of the the very top of politics or oligarch groups though?
Officers are always over-represented in casualties. In WW1 a Private had an average lifespan of about 9 months. A major lasted on average a few days. My dad always said that in WW2 majors were a consumable. He never knew one for more than 3 weeks.
Interesting. I assumed the opposite: officers are over-represented in these statistics because no one counts the little guys. Your input throws that out of water.
WWI British 2nd Lt.s were the rank that died more than any other after Private. In WWII my father was asked if he wanted to go to Officer training school, as they were very short of junior officers. He was 18 in a few months. This was in the Rifle Brigade, a unit that recruited educated, intelligent men of any background. My father had been a delivery boy on a bicycle that had a basket over the front wheel, who supplemented his wage with items bought and sold between his customers.
@@stevetheduck1425 I too was frequently asked if I would go to OCS (in the US Marines, it's called: Officer Candidate School). The reason I did not was what one of my Dad's fellow Army Vets told me when I asked him, as the young teenager I was at the time, "Who is the most important person, on a battlefield, when it comes to surviving or not". After a long pause, he answered, "Your Sergeant. If you have a good one leading you, you'll probably make it home alive. If your Sergeant isn't good at his job...you won't.
Thanks Beau. Linked with what you mention about the Ukrainian efforts to return Russian soldiers, there are reports of Ukrainian soldiers photographing the abandoned dead Russian soldiers in order to send photos to parents in Russia so they will know. They do have thousands of contact numbers in Russia from the hotline they set up in the first days of the invasion.
I could see finding a dead Russian's phone and taking one last snapshot to send the folks back home. I doubt the hotline would be used for that, though it might be to notify them.
@@rogerstarkey5390 There have been quite a few Russians, throughout history, that considered their own government Enemy #1. Do you know how many Czars were assassinated and how many attempts failed, ditto for Stalin, a few suspected later who died of unexpected illness?
In Russia, there is an active organization of mothers and wifes of military personnel. From what I heard, they are already aware of what's going on, but they I are still afraid of speaking up as they don't have much power. At least not yet.
Your nation has more humanity toward the families of their dead, than their own leaders do. That’s extraordinarily merciful, considering what their military is doing. May Ukraine win this horrible war & may it be over soon! ❤🇺🇦🌻
Putin logic: If I keep digging that hole I dug myself into I will eventually dig through the other side of the Earth and dig myself out. 5d chess at it's finest
The losses are becoming closer and closer to people. If now they have, say one person in town that didn’t return, with time it’ll become a relative of a friend that didn’t return. That can’t be good for Putin.
They are deliberately only sending country boys for this reason. Russia is not densely populated in the countryside. Families with a loss are very unlikely to know another with a loss. They can still hold the narrative together, but they are going to start running out of men. That is why they are taking conscript "volunteers" by contract to replace their losses, and my guess is they will only accept more country boys.
Radio Operator, "Sorry, Sarge, I can't get through to HQ." Sergeant, "Is the radio dead?" Radio Operator, "No, the radio is fine... It is HQ that's dead."
Speaking of Russian personnel (and their puppets), it has become increasingly obvious that when Trump clenches his sphincter, Putin naturally feels that pressure upon his forearm. But when Putin in turn clenches his own, Trump feels that pressure upon his neck.
A quote from Stuart Cloete's WW-1 novel 'How Young the yDied', The author was a UK WW-1 vet. The Sargent, a pre-war regular now in one of the 'hostilities only' battalions of his regiment. "When we goes over the top, follow the leftenant, if he is killed, follow me, if I'm hit follow the corporals. if the corporals is hit have a 'brew up' and pick someone".
The most disturbing thing about Russia's incompetence on the battlefield is the possibility that that incompetence extends to their handling of nuclear weapons. Sloppiness and nuclear arms is a very bad mixture.
By all accounts it's very hard to accidentally detonate a nuke. You have to follow a very precise sequence of actions otherwise what you have is a regular missile with a bit of radioactive material in it. Given the corner-cutting and pocket-stuffing supposedly seen in other areas of the Russian military that is now coming home to roost, the surprise would be if they actually have any working nukes in a working delivery system. Probably best not to bet the house on that theory though...
That had been my question, has the corruption rampant in the military extended to the nuclear forces? Is Russias nuclear force as capable as we perceive in the west?
If you take this analysis and combine it with an intercepted conversation between a suspected major and his mother in the Russian army who had resigned his commission and under threat quit his service. How comfortable he was to ask his frustrated colonel for an explanation as to why they were there and their objective. And his confidence and professional comfort in resisting their threats of prison and lawsuits. He even clearly claimed to his mother that they cannot charge him because since it is not a war there is martial court. (Knowledge of law and soldier rights) He then claimed to his mother that more than one hundred of one hundred and fifty remaining in his command battalion were quitting like him. They called him and the others cowards and they spit at their feet for it and left. He said quite frankly and calmly that they pretty much knew everyone had a rifle and ammunition. So that is what the surviving officers in the Russian ay are doing right now. The ones like this sensible man are quitting and saving their lives.
I imagine there’s got to be an equivalent of “Fortunate Son” in Russia; but i can also see grieving mothers treated like they’re crazy. Propaganda is as propaganda does.
Like I said. Ukraine was one of the powerhouses of the Soviet Union. It shared the bulk of the Soviet military. The Ukrainian generals who fought in the soviet afghan war are using mujahideen style tactics.
I'm gonna bet that their reservists aren't like ours either. I have a friend in the reserves who went to fight a few years ago. Her unit was plucked from Idaho to go over for 4 months for relief so others could go home for a break. Our reservists actually do know how to slip into their roles when called up to go fight.
Beau mentioned that earlier. Russian Reservists are people who have served, been discharged, and had nothing to do with the military since. They'll get a 12 week "refresher" then off to the front.
You don't need a lot of training to be even decently effective (the Ukrainians have proven that much). What you do need is, to know WHAT THE HECK YOU ARE DOING and WHY. Which is the basic minimum and the Russian troops still have no idea why they are fighting, and what their objectives are. With just that information the Russians would be waaay more effective. The Ukrainians basically gave their conscripts a single order....DEFEND THE COUNTRY BY ANY MEANS....and they are doing just that. Give them rocket launchers and some rifles and you have a highly motivated and creative army that will do their own "complex" maneuvers without much orders from the top.
The issue of paying in Russia is very... Flexible. I had a friend who worked for 2 months before she was issued her first weeks of pay. I mean to say she was paid her first week. Only her first week. When asked they said they would continue paying her every month after that, which means they were always 2 months behind. In addition when she finally left, they didn't pay her her final month either... I'm willing to bet that this pay that needs to be given to the soldier, is not continued. But worse, because they're not officially dead yet, none of the benefits to their families will be given either.... PS and I'm also willing to bet that any of those missing soldiers, you know the ones whose bodies were left behind, their families will never get those benefits
USA: One soldier goes missing 10,000 miles away? Presidential negotiations for him to rejoin his family. Russia: 9,000 soldiers go missing across the border? Careful about asking, or the President's men will see you join your soldier.
Nice analysis based on information available. No speculation. You got the point about their lack of combat ready leaders. Greetings from southern coast of Finland. We are going to have a big naval etc. military exercise with NATO troops very soon.
You're spot on with the inability of Russian lower ranks (officer and enlisted) to adapt, and it's direct impact on their losses and lack of success. I definitely remember the US Army encouraging flexibility, adaptability, and innovation at the NCO and Jr officer level. Heck, the motto of the Apache BN I was in was "in the absence of orders... Attack, Attack, Attack". We were encouraged, when the plan broke down, to take the initiative, to find a way to succeed, and to protect our Soldiers.
I told someone not long ago about how NATO standard orders were formatted, and that the way orders were supposed to be delivered was that it allowed the junior leaders, officers and non-coms, to know what was going on and to be able to adapt and take the initiative if they saw something happening that either threatened or could aid in the success of the overall mission.
@@keith6706 good point - one of the strong points of US and NATO forces is that they brief orders down to the lowest level. On exercises, the evaluators would often look at an NCO or officer and say "BAM, you're dead", and ask the next person down the chain "OK, you're in charge now.... what are you going to do?". The Russian military does not train like that. No training for juniors to take over, etc. (I was "killed" once on an exercise. The evaluator told me to go to bed for 24hrs. Best day of my military life! 🤣. I wasn't worried, as the E7 who worked for me was awesome!)
On training exercises, I remember it as only a question of when, not if, the leader would "die." The evaluator told the next in command they were in charge? Too easy. I remember at least once the leader just "disappeared" and the evaluator looked at how long it took for it to be noticed and someone take over. Everyone understands the objective, the plan, and trains to know how to innovate when the plan goes out the window on first contact.
@@amann2547 My experience was that if the trainers were being mean, it was the _sergeant_ who got zapped. That reinforced in the mind of the young officer that the whole "make sure the orders are understood *two* levels down" thing was kinda important. It also provided good training to newly minted corporals.
@@keith6706 correct. I was the senior NCO who got "killed". 😁. The evaluator wanted to see how my TOC staff reacted when I was taken out. He "killed" me at the mess tent, and had a Specialist report that I was "dead". The evaluator told me to stay in the "dead zone" tent, because I looked tired. He also wanted me to get some rest. (nice of him, eh?)
Many analysts say Putin will declare victory on or before may 9 the anniversary of the great patriotic war victory aka VE Day. They say he has to do this because Russia can’t continue to fight and lose this war and Putin will be overthrown if he loses. Let’s hope that happens a sooner rather than nuclear holocaust
Beau, I am exceedingly grateful that you squirmed all through this presentation, because you realize the tragedy for the young Russians in the meat grinder and for their loved ones and for the Russia which desperately needs to conserve its youthful male population. I stand with Ukraine, and I grieve for all its losses---human and property---because I also know it is a country which values its people. Pray for Ukraine, but also pray for the residual goodness in Russians.
Zelenksy needs to give up donbass&crimea . Russia is keeping it anyway(russia contolled it since 2014) , why not make peace instead of sacrifing more lives.
@@jedimaster1445 That's only part of the problem. Russia also wants Ukraine to be neutral and disarmed. Everyone knows Russia never honor any agreement. Look at Georgia and Chechnya.
@@jedimaster1445 The Budapest Memorandum, the one where Russia guaranteed the (1994) borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.
@@p.strobus7569 and Ukraine broke that memorandum by violating human right in donabss . According to the memorandum,[23] Russia, the US and the UK confirmed their recognition of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine becoming parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia and that they agreed to the following: -wikipedia
On my last tour the majority of our officers were newly promoted and ,although well trained, extremely inexperienced in battlefield conduct. Why we got away with this was a solid force of experienced SNCOs and complete air superiority. Mistakes at the officer level could be corrected at the NCO level, or at worst we could call in air support for resupply, recovery, or redecoration of the landscape, as required.
My 4 Steps On How to Become an Effective Officer in the Canadian Army (also American, British, German, etc): Step 1: “Sergeant, what do you believe we should do?” - Then order the sergeant to do that. Step 2: “Sergeant, do you have an opinion on this?” - If the sergeant suggests something different, then order the sergeant to do that instead. Step 3: “Sergeant, any questions?” - If the sergeant raises an issue, take that into consideration as to whether you should alter your plan. Step 4: “Sergeant, do this.” - And the sergeant does that because they’ve trained you to be somewhat competent.
@@keith6706 good process Sir. Seems like you took notes from one of our more experienced officers (or had a really bad experience by ignoring a SNCO lol) 35 years in the CF , finished up as a WO.
@@ralffsmith2655 My father and grandfather were enlisted back in the day when they did their stint. I paid attention. The other thing was that while captains, Lt(N)s, majors, the colonel, and the general were the one running things and teaching academic classes, if you were observant it was the RSM, warrants, and sergeants who were primarily doing the military teaching. I still remember the one time the RSM complimented my boot polish during a pre-parade inspection. Damn near couldn't fit my head through the door afterward. A captain had said that, enh, whatever. The one lesson that really hit it for me was our regular November parade. It was cold, rainy, we officer-cadets were standing on the square and were bloody freezing, and the RSM and the sergeants were stalking around getting visibly angrier at the delay. Then we found out the delay was because the officers and VIPs wouldn't walk the 300 or so meters from the officer's mess to the parade square in the wind and rain and were waiting for buses to come over from the base to move them to the stands. We were there for 35 or so minutes waiting, with no opportunity to shelter or warm up, and I can still remember the RSM walking through the squadron ranks checking on people and not _quite_ openly expressing his contempt for someone who would do that to his people. But you could see he was furious. To be fair, I found out later some of the officers were just as upset, but right then it was the RSM and the sergeants who were looking after their charges while the officers and the civvies were nowhere to be seen. They weren't hiding from the wind and the rain and the cold, they were out there with us, looking after us, and making sure we were okay. So yeah.
Not that this discussion isn't already depressing... The reality of these men loosing their lives, and being left behind, has my heart hurting even more. There is just no reason for any of this. It has to stop! ❤️🌵☀️⛈️🌈☮️🐎🕊️
That ship has been blowing up Ukrainian civilians for 5 weeks. If one of those missles hit YOUR neighborhood and killed your family... how hurt would your heart be? My heart would fill with joy if my family's killers were sunk and killed. We are not looking at this the right way. We need to try and feel what it might be like to be on the killing end of Russian missiles- literally for weeks. Seeing our neighbors and friends and family blown to bits, buried alive under their bombed homes, dead on a blown up train trying to get to safety... that ship is responsible for these kinds of deaths. You're seeing it on TV. Don't be sad. Be glad they can't kill anymore children!
When I was in the Swedish Army back in 1986-87, we were taught to shoot the guy with the binoculars and map case. The Soviet troops would turn into headless chickens.
Kind of scary, though. Widespread civil unrest could be the the sort of thing that Putin would consider an existential threat to the Russian Federation. Making his button-pushing finger itchy.
but remember also there is no button, it's just a metaphor. The generals he orders to launch have to make up their own mind what option is more survivable. Also, given the 1/3 failure raight of PGMs and the astronomically greater complexity of a nuclear warhead, I wonder what % of Russian nukes don't work.
@@j.f.fisher5318 6,000 nukes, and what if only 3,000 are functional. So who cares right? It's only 3,000 nukes. And indeed Putin has the final say over whether to use them.
@@j.f.fisher5318 I don't think I'd count on them not working or his generals making up their own minds- they don't possess 'their own minds' and nuclear weapons are not complex. This is not US. This is a man and a military that murders their own ppl on a daily basis. Why would they think twice about the wholesale destruction of others?
The training given by Canadian military personnel to Ukrainian military in NATO tactics over the past years in using low ranking NCOs being trained to take initiative and flexible tactics has shown its worth in stymying Russian advance has shown its value almost everywhere.
Thanks. Keep up the good work. There are a lot of us that dont have the knowledge to understand these things... Good job to spreed some light on the situation. Thanks.
What’s missed when discussing differences in casualty in numbers is the gore of war. Every extra casualty is a ripped arm muscle, a pierced lung, a split skull. If you have a pro-war bone in your body, consider your body being gored and reconsider your position.
