Logan Mohtashami: How high can mortgage rates go?

Подписаться 4 тыс.

Просмотров 1,5 тыс.

50% 1

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about volatile mortgage rates in the wake of the inflation data and potential escalation of global conflicts.
Related to this episode:
- Mortgage Rates: www.housingwire.com/mortgage-...
- Follow Logan on Instagram: / logan_mohtashami
- Connect with Sarah on LinkedIn: / sarah-tester-wheeler
- HousingWire: www.housingwire.com/
- The Gathering: events.housingwire.com/the-ga...
Enjoy the episode!
The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.

Опубликовано:

9 июн 2024

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист

Посмотреть позже

Комментарии : 13

@jaycamp1 Месяц назад

The FF rate may feel restrictive to the housing market (specifically young homebuyers and struggling realtors) but otherwise rates are not restricting the economy enough to slow it down. The American economy is booming with deficit spending and the top 50% have plenty of savings.

@LoganMohtashami Месяц назад

The Fed only says they're restrive because of the FF rate vs. 3-6-12 month PCE growth trend model, hence why Powell uses the term restrictive. If you look at it that way, it explains their restrictive language. The counter to that is that most credit debt is secured with lower rates, and the higher rates impact housing and fixed business investments. A good example is that 5-unit apartment permits are already at recession lows and heading to the lows of 2009 if the trend continues.

@tinachxx110 Месяц назад

I’m a lawyer in the real estate industry and I have a hard time understanding his point

@LoganMohtashami Месяц назад

Which point exactly?

@gbailey7672 Месяц назад

We are pretty much neutral

@LoganMohtashami Месяц назад

The only reason the Fed said they're restrictive policy is that the Fed Funds rate is 2% over the 3-6-12 month PCE growth trend; that's why they use the term restrive, real yields model they rely on often

@Matthew-uy6lc Месяц назад

Market won't recover till 2026 because of 18 month lag and even then it's not going to be a flood if it happens. Horrible time to buy right now and not a good time to sell. I think rates recover in spring 2025 and that's going to be the best time to sell. It's a really tight marke

@elterco7 Месяц назад

Does Logan factor in the 10,000,000 new immigrants over the last three years when thinking about supply and demand, and pent-up demand? Do that many "new" people have a significant impact on demographics?

@LoganMohtashami Месяц назад

Immigration has been the most significant factor for new growth demographics in America since 1810 However, if you're talking about home buyers, that type of immigration is more for rent on the first wave curve than home buying for the Calendar year. Because ages 28-35 are the biggest in America already and have been working for many years, the sales demand curve aligns with them first. Then you move up buyers, move down buyers, cash buyers plus investors, you see why it's rare post 1996 to get existing home sales to go below 4,000,000 in a big fashion when we have over 158,000,000 people working and a population over 335,000,000

@elterco7 Месяц назад

@@LoganMohtashami Thank you Logan. Paraphrasing, I believe I am hearing you say that immigrants have no material impact. I was worried that pressure in rental prices could push up housing prices. From your response, I believe you are saying purchases and rentals are completely independent markets, which seems feasible except in pathologically low rental vacancy environments.

@LoganMohtashami Месяц назад

@@elterco7@elterco7 Rental demand first; over time, it can lead to more housing demand. However, the first wave of the demand curve is mostly rental demand. Unless it's some high skill labor demand with a good paying job right off the bat, or rich foreign money coming in to buy homes not for themselves but their kids. Foreign demand for housing is relatively small