Magic The Gathering is worthless. 

2:52 _"The entire world does not revolve around North America... a lot of product does go to Canada."_ -Rudy, BSc., M.D., PhD, ABU, cardboard financier, geographer extraordinaire

_Florida Man Declares the Death of MTG-Offers to Buy Collections for Cents on the Dollar_

NGL, when I heard that knock on the door, I thought the Pinkertons were coming for you.

I’ve heard for the LOTR 1 of 1 you have a chance of around 1 in 3.3million to find it in a collector booster so thats roughly 275k collector booster boxes or 250k plus the single packs and packs within bundles

They will not be able to increase the print run of collector boxes beyond the advertised number. They claim that the odds of finding the One Ring are 0.00003%. This means that there will be roughly 3,333,333 packs, which os the equivalent of 277,777.75 Collector boxes worth of packs. This would likely be 250,000 collector boxes and the rest going to those supplemental products that you mentioned. Increasing the print run would further reduce those odds and then they would be in legal jeopardy.

The thing that enrages me, is that Mtg has become an empty shell for other I.P. and games/universes. It is such a poor business idea.

FaB's strength lies in the strong forward movement of the dark fantasy story and the intense human world. The decision to give the most shiny cards in the first release and then only offer watered down versions of them is better than the other way around and grants company to be in a good spot what comes to needed reprints. A bit high printing does not matter if those cards are sought after later and players really want to keep their marvel set from original printing if were able to get them. A challenge for game itself is complexity of game play and time needed to get in. Also being only physical game limits in modern world.

MTG wanna survive? No more F* Secret Lair, No more 69 styles of the same card and types of boxes, No more prices over 200$, No more then 3/4 standard sets per year, 1 master set every 2 years, 1 commander set every 2 years. Find real writers for the lore of the game No more overpower cards used to sell then banned! With this formula they will recover. I love Magic, I hope you are right Rudy..

Rudy, if I am investing in sealed Pokémon does it matter to keep the cases sealed?

Magic invested too hard on the commander format. They saw people buying old cards and got greedy. If they left it an afterthought the format would be healthier. Everyone at my lgs pretty much only commander. Games end after someone plays solitare for infinite death. A game dev once said his biggest problew with development is making sure players can't optimize the fun out of the game. Wizard's is optimizing the magic out of Magic.

I should be at maximum excitement for LotR and M:tG doing a crossover. After seeing the art, I will not be buying this set. Tolkein went into painfully explicit detail describing characters from head to toe and even provided his own beautiful watercolors of his world. The cards I saw looked like a Party City catalog and it makes the whole thing come off as an act of cultural vandalism thinly disguised as another shameless corporate grift. Then the Pinkerton thing happened; I am done buying new product, singles from the LGS are the only way i am spending my hard earned money on this silly luxury cardboard game.

Flesh and Blood!

Our group will not buy the overpriced LOTR and Commander Masters sealed products. We are tired of Wizards gimmicks and nothing is special anymore. The problem with the One Ring is that Cocks will hold on to the One Ring and wait for the sales of collectors boxes to go down. Then, he will put it in a box and give it to Star City Games or Post Malone and have a live stream of the box opening for the One Ring. It's a NO WIN SCENARIO for the Magic Community. We just can't trust Hasbro / Wizards. We will wait and buy the SINGLES that we want. Thank you for the video Rudy.

I honestly think that wizards should cut back on the variants. Or make them exclusive to the collectors boxes. Remove the reprint slot from set boxes and at this point ditch draft boxes. My local area there used to be multiple drafts on pre releases. Now people pick up their prerelease kit and go home. Events don’t fire. People have switched to playing pauper and commander. Wizards you are successfully killing a 30 year old rock solid game with greed based decisions. I’ve been operating an LGS for 20 years and I’m on the verge of saying what’s the point anymore. Every product the last few years people buy to try and flip rather than play. Im sitting in multiple cases of product that used to sell out on release day but now I get stuck with for more than a year. A game is only worth what the actual players are willing to pay and most “players” are not willing to spend anything anymore.

I've loved this game since ice age. I remember when it came out in the 90s. I have slowly watched magic the gathering turn into a game for the people, a game that is fun and approachable for anyone. And I am watching that old way die out. Magic the gathering has turned into a monopoly, the company gives no FuCk about its consumers they only care about our wallet. I've refused to buy anything hasboro has produced for magic the gathering, I only buy singles or packs from people who are not giving wotc profit. It's so sad to see what magic has become

My ballpark estimate is 33% of the mtg players / buyers are from the US 33% Europe and 33% the rest of the world. If Fab has that many boxes while there are not many players in Europe it means the amount of MTG collectors boxes are insane! Expect Amazon to sell at least 33% of the total amount of boxes because that is where the massive revenue growth in the past years comes from!

Keep motivating me Rudy!

MTG is not worthless, it’s just worth a lot less in the hands of the current suits running the game into the ground

(*Edit: made this comment before Rudy got to this point...) Lord of the Rings feels like Baldurs gate 2.0... serialized rings are cool but the huge price increase is completely unjustified just like Baldurs gate and we all know what that turned out to be... How many times will Timmy's fall for this nonsense?

Great timing. Can listen to this on my walk. Cheers Rudy. 👍

I would choose a playset of Rainbow Vale over an Aftermath booster box.

Rudy, never forget: On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for all secret lair investments drops to 0.

8:05 That scared the absolute bejesus out of me felt like it was my door

that knock on the door scared the shit out of me.

I think a lot of the people skeptical about new card games like Flesh and Blood are those people who grew up during the 90s boom and subsequent collapse of games they had spent years and maybe thousands of dollars accruing what ended up (at the time) becoming junk. It takes a lot to overcome that kind of memory.

God, that door knocking freaked me out with my headphones

Headwinds are turning into tailwinds. I'm also retarded.

I thought the Pinkerton's were knocking!

keep the cores you doing a good job.

I feel like collector boxes would be the number of serial cards 1 of x and multiply that by the odds of opening one.

@8:03 scared the absolute living shit out of me 😂😂

MTG has just gotten worse and worse over the past half decade. I sorted thru some old cards the other day and came across a bunch of core 2014 cards. They looked, felt, and probably are 10x cleaner than any of the junk they come out with now. It used to be simple and straightforward - now there’s 12+ variants of every card and they are all worthless

Its going to hit all-time highs in the future. nothing stays low.

That last piece of advice is golden across any financial investment.

Yeah i feel bad honestly for anyone who’s like me, but with magic. Ive sold over 1000 different pokemon card orders in less than two years, theres ups and downs, but my downs dont include discounting cards by an insane amount just to get 1 sale. I think a lot of pokemon sealed if its not a booster box is a waste to hold onto simply cause i got 3 friends who tried to do what i do with sealed product, one opened a store with his mom and is doing great, the other 2, well, the one guy went completely bankrupt like filing for it not just broke, stuck with a room or two in a one bedroom apartment, while he cant afford child support apparently either. Then, the other one, he knows NOTHING and decided to say fuck it and buy EVERYTHING, hes hit me up so many times i lost count because its damn near spam at this point sending a message to me and a ton of others in the friend group and Pokemon community on ig, and hes lost at LEAST 75% or more of his money in sealed product, because yes he bought ES booster boxes during release, but also bought every single box and cheap product out there, so hes sure got sealed evolving skies booster boxes, but, hes stuck with fuckin 30 boxes of Hoopa V for example, and cant make anything back, besides the money he spent, and hope to break even ONCE he finds a buyer cause he still sends me messages constantly but the type of guy who knows i sell singles so he wants to charge 65 for a 45 dollar card. My advice?! Stick to the single market. If you can handle it. As its well known most people dont have time or energy even to do what i do with pokemon. Thats also why i have over 1000 sales now on this new account i made, less than 2 years ago. Pretty nuts if you do the numbers. Ive had over 30 orders a day more than once. And thats bulk cards, as well as tons of singles. Micro transactions add up guys, dont gotta look for the most expensive product. My business is a WANT business not a NEED business, so with cheaper options, people can afford things in this economic climate, such as my 10 packs where i include an ultra rare. And they cost half the damn price of the 5$ msrp

D&D great property with millions of fans! if we make a special boister box about D&D many millions of D&D players will also play magic, just like Lord of the rings!

I totally agree about the massive size of the industry nowadays. I went to MagicCon Minneapolis just a few weeks ago and there must have been 10 large vendors there and *all* of them were busy buying and selling cards. I would consider this no longer niche but an actual sustainable industry. It was just incredible.

Moving my store into a bigger spot and increasing my ccg merchandise.

Your son will love all of your cataloged videos. Good job.

I enjoy your videos, especially the financial insight into the various card products. It's definitely a complex market with many diverse forces pulling and pushing constantly. I think Metazoo has been given a second chance and I really hope they can run with it. Magic will still be around. The new games are intriguing. Pokemon has got to face the fact that their customer base isn't freckle faced kids playing games anymore. I never expected the new base set to do well and it hasn't. They stepped in it. Hopefully Paldea Evolved will help them recover.

17:55 Now that's how you do serialized cards.

If they were smart they would scale back the print run. Demand would be high. It would make waves and lift the sets to come.

6:30 Well, I play the game called _"Selling back and forth to other investors at ever-increasing prices"_ 📈🚀🤑

Is anyone else’s Walmart shoplifted for tcg collectibles?

“Do not deceive yourself by trusting in what is worthless.”

15:40 Inflated prices can really dampen a set. Just like the latest Pokemon set (SV)

Yea averaged cost per CLB card from collectors boxes was $1.30 I believe at full msrp.

Last time Rudy made a video on Pokémon Seinfeld was still on.

I still chuckle to myself when looking at the prices of foil 7th Edition, some cards are evaluated roughly around 500 to 700usd, a card. And I happen to have the

I hope majority of the mtg people will vote with their wallet and vote with their action.. mtg is milking its player base to the ground. Not focusing on standard. High prices. Poor quality. Too many variances. Too many product. And many more ways to milk us.

I miss the fat packs with the books 😂

LotR will be overprinted and under ordered. Not as many LotR fans will want these. Look at all the failed LotR cards from the past. The IP is not as valuable as most people think.

I have been collecting Pokémon cards for a decade plus now and I have not a single time have I played a match. You are right Rudy

I still buy some of the newer stuff to rip. But when it comes to collecting, as a long time sports cards collector I stick to the vintage stuff.

Holy fucking shit dude that person banging on the glass at 8:04 scared me half to death I had airpods in mid bench press and thought it was someone in my house sweet Jesus bro I almost ate the barbell

Rudy's right, that actual amount of people that play the game is probably astoundingly low. People are turned off by products marketed as a collectible. Syndicated products with a manufactured rarity are obviously going to excel. However, it is interesting to think that the minority of people who actually play with the cards are the buyers of the higher valued items.

I'm with Rudy 100% This sh*t is gret for better or worse,it is so cool and fun being here in this market Thanks Taco king

LOTR Collector will go sky high even though there was no notary involved and once the 1/1 ring gets pulled it will collapse like a sack of $hit and people will go crying again because they speculated on something that was not checked by a notary and they lost a lot of money!

Magic and DD have hardcore players. Like u said there are more magic players who play the game than Pokémon. Cardboard sells nostalgia when u were young u couldn’t buy and now u are older and can afford, you buy. Magic can’t alienate hardcore fans as i haven’t seen younger generations or new people collecting. They are so many kids collecting pokemon and when they got older might recollect when they start making money and have nostalgia of younger days. Pokémon has games, tv show, and cards to bring in new fan base. I haven’t seen Magic bring younger fans to replace loyal fans they are losing.

My echmtg percentage of increase since purchase, on singles, went from sun 30% to today 2.5% over the last two years. Crazy stupid devalue.

Anyone can tell you how things look in the short term, but no one can predict the future with certainty.

To be fair, you’re so deep in Rudy that I would imagine it’s impossible to except that it’s the end, but I totally agree that this machine is just going to keep on Truckin

Crimson Vow I think we can all agree was a pretty L set. When those boxes dropped to $75 shipped, I bought two cases. The downside risk is that it never appreciates and I basically break even. Even if I sell them pack by pack for $2-3, I'd break even. The goal is obviously to make a return on the time value of my money, but I truly think that the set will do decent in 5-10 years. I feel most sets, you need to build a stake in, especially if it is sub-$100.

Distributor price for LoTR collector box is 280.00. We're looking at 350 a box at lgs's, 30 bucks a pack.

Date A Bullet has some absolutely required cards for Date A Live decks. But its only a select few cards, so the singles market is where the value is there.

Jump-scare at 8:04

The very end 😹

a quarter million collector booster boxes??? WHAT? LOL... So each of these boxes is pretty much worthless? How many stay sealed? Any theory on that?

could be longer print runs but who really knows

I believe in you Rudy. I don't buy a lot of magic, and I'm not happy with the company, but you're definitely smarter than me. I listened to you in 2017 and got some nice vintage stuff at such a low price that I'm in the black no matter how far it falls. Thanks for also being a general finance guru. I credit you for my good credit.

streets of Barry Manilow....what year was that released?

Some German Collectors are in my hands right now. Don't forget us!

Cant believe Rudy finally blessed us with his junk on camera

War of the machine epilogue booster box?????? I buy that for a dollar !

I’m with you Rudy

The video title, but unironically!

65x500x8.3=269000 Aprox. amount of MoM collector boxes in all languages if 100% of boosters weren in packs of 12. Could be that 150k in english, 80k in foreign languages and the rest as loose packs in supl. products.

Everything does seem very worrisome right now. Over in the U.K. there’s literally no one buying magic cards and if they are they are buying for maybe 25 cents to the dollar.

THAT KNOCK ON THE DOOR. was so fucking scary. Edit that out next time lmao.

One of the reasons MZ is doing so well is because they held back product and most stores did not get native product. The market has only seen about 25-40 percent of the actual product. Could even be lower.

Did you delete your last video where you had a fantastic take about WOTC not respecting their older collectors?

Not sure how well LotR will be accepted - I realise I may be completely off the mark but just the art work on the cards has destroyed my initial interest in this release and I blame Peter Jackson for that. Having seen all six movies numerous times, the characters and scenery are burned into my mind. Had the movies not been made, I would have been lining up outside my LGS waiting to spend my “hard- earned” and drooling over the art. Sadly, these days, its all about corporate profits / projected profits and not about satisfying the customers - I see a collapse in expected card prices once this set gets out there and mainly (my opinion) because of such a deviation in the art work, from what we have all come to know. All other sets are pure fantasy and imagination, so there is basically nothing to compare them to.

I’m glad

I don't think the game is over. It's a different game. The market is reeling from the massive switch from heavy focus on competitive magic to the heavy focus on kitchen table magic. That's fine. Does it change the market in the long term? Maybe. Maybe not. *shrug*. I am a cat.

One thing I disagree with is I think there will be increased box openings until the one of one card is found. I really do think its a multimillion dollar lottery ticket that could really drive the sealed market FAST.

canada store here... our distro got tons of hanger individual MH2 collector pack in stock a couple of months ago. we only order those now because the price of sealed MH2 collector box are WAY too expensive! supplemental retail big boxes packs must be way higher than we think.

Wait…Canada is not part of North America?

There's no at the helm. The captain has cashed his checks, and took a chopper on the helipad. We're all adrift in the ocean, with no land in sight.

Wow.. rudy watches Dual Brain MTG...

The hair tells you all you need to know.

Wait....i thought less was more

Magic is definitely not in a good state. The commander-focus on magic is strangeling it slowly. Commander slowly kills everything. Commander is like phyrexia only... effective. Its like the pet ball python you get. Sure its cute at 6 inches. But what happens when its 4 feet long? Its a fucking beast. We need to get back to 60-card formats mattering and stop designing for commander. Commander being the only thing that matters in magic is truely the cry of a dying game. Because...... shocker..... NOT EVERYONE CARES ABOUT COMMANDER.

FOLKS, title got me again.

Cool video

I think its really just for a lot of people we are overwhelmed. I havw played the game aince day one. I have has huge collections that have been sold, stolen, and lost over years. I come back to it becausw its dun and inventive. But the product fatigue is real. The laxk of clarity is real. And Hasbro not seeing people as customers first, cash cows second has really screwed older playership. Like this year its gonna be the nasters commander decks, two boxea and the dr who commander decks. Thats it for now. And going further it is more and more just singles, if not investing in a good peinter and proxie town.

Great talk as always. Man, everybody wanna have an opinion on everything since the dawn of time, and people tend to be negative even if they mean good intentions, so we must filter all this poopy and stay on the course we want!

The world does not revolve around North America, some also goes to Canada - Legend, couldnt make this sh*t up

the 'Magic is worthless' title against the backdrop of boxes upon boxes of MTG stock is hilarious

We just got taught.

Good talk Rudy. Your words are wise as always