Magician Gets KK And An OUTRAGEOUS Deal 

Nouri : Bets $5,500 Doug : I don't love this bet size, I'd prefer something more like 5 and a half k or 6k. Nouri : Am I a joke to you

Hi guys Doug polk here. Today i'm going to analyse some hands. Don't limp open pre. Now were onto the flop, i don't mind checking, calling, raising or folding here. Throw a dice and make a decision based of that. Now we called the flop we gotta call the turn, we also have blockers too 156 different combinations of cards our opponent could have. However i like mixing in a check raise here every now and then. Now the river. Ship it regardless of what comes out, you probably block something somehow. scream FOLDDDDDD. That's it for todays polker hands analyse.

When someone tells you they don't have much left it usually means they have a good hand. 2nd Antonio making that deal is in the spirit of poker. Talking advantage of suckers. like someone offering poker lessons for $1000.

LMAO, old fishie guy with silver hair check-raising two people after limp-calling pre-flop. It's time to run away as FAST AS YOU CAN. I would not even feel comfortable here with 99 or 77.

12:09 It was Bill Perkins who jumped into the mix while not even in the hand and brought up the idea of paying out equity, it wasn't like Antonio brought it up first or was even pushing for it, why not call out Perkins, at least a little bit here?

“Angling by Antonio” now available on Kindle for $9.99

I think what most people are missing about the Perkins deal here is that it is possible that he has additional information, in this instance if he folded out a jack...he could lay an even line on insurance and be ahead because of his information advantage. It turns out based off of the graphics that he had 9-4, but at the table there is no way of knowing that. That's where these deals can get out of hand.

If you want to be mad at anyone be mad at Bill for throwing it out there when he wasn’t even in the hand

Equity on turn is (3/44)*$85,200 = $5,810 So that $6k offer from Perkins looks right on; offering to take the risk for $180. However, the offer was made by a player (Perkins) that knew he didn’t have a Jack, preflop so actually the math changes to (3/42)*$85,200 = $6,086 which means he is loosing $86 equity and also taking the risk. Note, if the insurance offering player had fold a single Jack preflop, then they could offer insurance at anything above (2/42)*$85,200 = $4,058.

Definitely plus EV for Antonio, and maybe he shouldn't have pushed it that hard, but it's not that outrageous. W/O card removal, he's 6.8 % (3 jacks with 44 in deck). If the graphics are right, that's worth about $5,800 of the $85,200 pot. So he got an extra $4,200. It's a significant premium, but I wouldn't characterize as theft. We all over pay for insurance. That's what keeps insurance companies in business.

Perfect negotiating skills by Antonio imo. He knew that he had around 6% equity so he started way above that so he can drop down. If your target is 7k you don't start the negotiation at 7k...Fortunately for him the other guy accepted right away. You could argue for an angle if Antonio proposed the deal knowing that the rec would not know his equity but Perkins did so gg for him!

how does Antonio always get in these perfect high stakes line ups on TV ! Theres not 1 player that can remotely out play him

Without factoring in the folded dead cards it's 3 outs out of 44 unseen cards for (3/44)*85200=5809.09. From Bill Perkins's perspective it is (3/42)*85200=6085.71 so his offer of 6000 is pretty on the mark. If we factor in all the dead folded cards it's (3/34)*85200=7517.65. Not sure if it's standard practice in a situation like this for the others at the table to reveal if they folded a Jack preflop. If a player knows they folded a Jack preflop they could offer insurance at a significantly lower fee.

Bet size: $5.5k Doug: "I like something more like 5.5 or 6k but it's an alright size" Me: Things that make you go hmmm...?

10k is actually a pretty good deal. It is a mistake to think that 6k (the expected loss for Rodrock) is the right price to pay. If rodrock were risk neutral he’d be indifferent to taking a deal of 6k and playing out the hand. But the fact that he is eager to buy insurance from esfandiari implies he is risk averse. He is willing to pay a risk premium for that. Forgetting risk aversion for a second, if he wanted to maximize the expected growth rate of his bank roll, it’s conceivable he’d be willing to pay Esfandiari 8-10k. Depends on his bank roll though

Are you sure you want to bet the flop from Rodrock's position? It kind of turns the hand fairly face up polarised range of T9s, 77, 99, or TT+, with a few combos of J8s, two combos of 97s, and with the odd KJ or QJ - all very strong hands that overs don't do much good against. There are no one-card flush draws to represent or be paid off by, and there's not much else going on to incentivize continuance. Add to that the fact that Rodrock only has an SPR of 3, he only needs two streets of value to stack off - or one if he can check-raise the flop. The only nasty turns for him are 6, 8, Jacks, and Queens - and with the Jacks and 8s blocked out the turn will brick fairly often or improve a hand behind enough of the time to give big action. Essentially, even if the flop got checked around, he could go for a probe bet/ call Esfandiari's probe bet on most turns. As for the deal, I 100% agree - Sklansky dollars for equity is the only fair way to negotiate these kinds of situations, but even then it's rarely a good idea for most players who have no idea what their equity actually is. Personally, I would be very against negotiations like that but be much more inclined to change the number of runouts for future cards if possible: if both players agree, equity is more or less maintained (discounting variance). If not, nobody loses any more or less than they were already going to.

" us pros who can immediately figure out that equity" - then immediately miscalculates the equity. #SoPolk

Most ppl might not understand what Doug is saying but Doug as a poker player you’re videos are WORLD CLASS

Doug...why have you overlooked the fact that Bill Perkins spoke up in a pot he wasn't involved in... what the fuck is that about? People should NOT be doing this and I see this shit happen a lot in these games.... is it acceptable behavior now?!

I dont think its fair for you to critize Antonio for making this deal. Two grown men offered terms and accetped, because antonio was a winner in the deal, he should not be criticized. Your ethical bubble should not dictate other peoples credibility.

So why do they run out the hand if, in essence, Antonio backed out for 10k? They didn't show hands before making the deal, so what if Antonio hits trips and it turns out to win, (assuming the other guy had 2 pair)?

7:54 Nouri bets 5.5k into a 10.7k pot.....So Doug tells us he bets a little less then half pot and would prefer if Nouri bets something like 5.5 to 6k. Right.....

I'm fairly sure he got paid double... 20k because he took the 10k out of his stack and not the pot... then antonio made the dealer count his stack (to be paid) AFTER he took the 10k out... so antonio paid 10k LESS on top of getting the 10k out of his stack

In this day and age it's not hard to whip out a phone and check your equity before getting into a negotiation. I keep an equity chart on my phone so would know I have a 6.5% of getting sucked out on. If you're another player at the table offering insurance the best time to do it is when you know you've folded their opponents outs. So you can offer something at or very close to the true equity. Knowing full well you've negotiated a highly favourable deal.

It's pretty simple to calculate your odds in a case like this. 3 jack the only 3 outs. 8 cards out of deck leaves 44 behind. 3/44 is a little over 6%.

My thinking is the casual player might not be buying back in if he felts. So, paying a little extra to ensure you don't get runner runner'd might be worth it.

Knowing equities and using it to your advantage over your opponent when the terms of the deal are clear to all parties is not in the spirit of the game of poker? Hmmm ... ok.

I feel like if you’re going to play in high-stakes game against pros, you should at least be able to calculate equities and their $ value relative to the pot.

I mean the man was literally offered 6k but declined because he didn't understand the concept of insurance and just wanted the pot now. Sometimes you have to just make the deals with the idiots, it's no worse than deciding to join a table because you know there are fish on it.

Really good poker if anything. I don't see see how exploiting your opponent's lack of experience with deals is fundamentally different from exploiting their lack of skill.

The 7% figure shown at the end does _not_ include the mucked cards. It is the rounded figure. The actual figure hovers just above 6.8%. I don't know why Doug would think otherwise. Most shows do not include the dead cards when showing the win % for the hands.

"I take back what I've said about jack eight. I was wrong" That made my day. :) Thanks bud.

Can someone plz explain Bills deal? Was he saying that if a jack doesn’t come on river the old man would give him 6k but if the jack did come he would give the size of the pot that he got sucked out on? So he would give him like 80k if the jack came?

Educa Poker top 10 player in the world?! This maniac is top5 if not top3 with otb and linus.

You didn't consider the limp-reraise option for Nouri with the AhTh. I like using that play as a bluff with an amateur image, it always makes your opponents think you have Aces.

Good advice about not taking deals from people who are better at deal making that you are. I don't think that Antonio should be faulted from offering an unfair deal. First of all, he suggested a round number and may not have instantly calculated the numbers in his head. But even if he did, think about what you are doing when you try to win at poker. You are trying to get your opponent to pay more than his hand is worth! The entire point of the game is to get the other player to take an unfair deal where he gives you more money that he would if he knew (and cared about) his exact equity. This situation was a verbal deal, which is not usual, but when the amateur had the nuts he did exactly the same thing by making an $18000 bet.

3:19 i love analysis but lets be honest about this field and how much they care about profitable poker…im guessing the net worth of the room is over 10 figures combined so….

Sweet video! Love Poker Hands! Could you make one video explaining the pros and cons of running once, 2x, 3x and in whitch situations to do it?

Been dealing over a decade and I see this all the time and it is funny. Yet I am not a fan of it because it slows down the hands per hour and my bottom dollar on tips...but I hold my composure and just enjoy it for what it is. Entertainment whilst learning!

Where can I find this entire game? I know a gentleman at the table and would like to watch this match.....

antonio the master angler/fandangler gets over on the recs...

Not so hard to calculate your equity tho, dont need to be a "pro". Jack would save him, 3 outs. 3*2 equals 6% aprox

Poker is about exploiting opponents weaknesses. If deals are allowed in these games then exploiting the opponents lack of equity knowledge is totally fair. It's poker FFS! Antonio's offer was well within the spirit of the game.

i love that Bobby Sura is still getting on televised poker shows to sit there and nit sweaters

The old man seems like a pretty chill dude. But am I the only one who cannot believe that someone so easily swayed and so seemingly unaware of what's going on around is playing against these guys for those stakes??

Can someone please explain what's going on? Rodrock raises but doesn't go all-in, Esfan calls claiming only to have a pair, yet the TV display wrongly shows it as a raise, enough to put Rodrock all-in then Rodrock turns his hand over still without actually being all-in and therefore with more betting to come. Why does this get overlooked in a video analysis, especially by someone that likes to talk so much? Esfan then asks "How much is it? before saying "go one time". Is there a cost to pay to the house to run it twice or more? Why doesn't the video comment on this? Why does Esfan have to chuck in a chip after that (which becomes two chips in the next shot, so I assume that other chip is Rodrock's). The negotiation itself is clear but is actually initiated by Perkins who isn't even in the hand - isn't that a rule-breach in many games, so why isn't it clarified whether his offer is legitimate or not? And why does Rodrock completely dismiss it? Does he assume he's not allowed to accept? Why isn't this analysed more instead of just making a sweeping generalisation about insurance, seeing as we are specifically told to pay attention to the negotiation? And what is the extra "you get the 20 or 30 here as well"? Then there is also the question about Rodrock paying out of his stack rather than the pot though as the hand isn't played out it seems irrelevant as the final amount is the same. It would be different if he paid Perkins the insurance and ran the cards - then there's a debate to be had. Lots to explain in the above instead of wasting all the discussion on the ethics of a completely plausible deal between two consenting players with different values attached to "jam today".

10 card stud flips had me crackin up

A cheetah never changes his spots

Hey Doug! A little mistake @5.53 its actually called Backdoor Bangkok

Hi, i m thinking to buy educa-poker course, but i look into his highstakesdb results and it seems that from januar 2016 up to now he broke even. can you show as his graf of bb won for 2016 and also for 2017 year

I think Perkins was kinda out of line too. If anybody were to initiate this conversation it should have been Antonio. Perkins did offer him insurance at $6k for the whole pot which was basically no juice with only the one jack being dead but Rodrock didn't mull it over enough. Doug was right though they don't know what cards are dead. Antonio's equity in the pot would only be around 4% with two jacks dead and 2% with only one live jack, which would've made his real equity in the pot around $1750-$3500, so he made out like a bandit here making a deal for $10k. Antonio has done some other kind of questionable things in the past (anyone else remember his pump fake versus Vanessa Selbst)? And its not like he really needed that $10k. He hustled an amateur more or less for kicks.

i dont agree.. what antonio did was super fine, nothing wrong with it

I love Antonio and his skill set. He did take advantage of a recreational player but if that guy doesn't know what he's getting into when by sitting down with pros, that's his mistake.

Every vid of Antonio he's always doing that "pump fake" with the chips in his hands. Needs to be called out.

Darol is from KC. Sat behind him watching him in PLO, his wife said he profited 300k at this game.

doug i want to ask you if you think its possible that sites such as ACR, IGNITION and other US sites could be running crypto mining in the background while users have open the software? the reason i ask is because i know that some non legal streaming sites mine crypto in the background while users watch movies and i thought why wouldn't a poker site do this as well?

Fair play to Antonio for negotiating his way out- can't fault both gentlemen. They have an agreement and that's it.

I think my fav hand is not str or royal or even ..well, AAJ - JA is pretty nice, or 4444, the best 4 OAK. But when 567 comes up, you got 89, then the turn is a 4. Such a sick hand.

Years ago they used to do rebates like that to get back some of their equity. It was a hassle. ppl getting the wrong price etc. Thats why ppl just run it 2x 3x etc.

I don't know Rodrock. Does the old saying 'Beware of the speech' apply here or is he capable of a false tell?

has anybody thought to broadcast poker with the percentages shown from the players perspective without factoring in dead cards?

antonio did exactly what the spirit of the game says

Did anyone notice he gave Antonio chips from his OWN stack? They were negotiating 10k from the pot - by giving him 10k that Antonio hasn't matched yet he actually gave Antonio 20k "from the pot" since Antonio didn't have to match it in the final tally.

Doug Polk what is all this analysis in this hand about? There is an old man sitting at a cashgame table that checkraises more than half of his stack. Thats all you need to say about this hand. Throw the Kings out of the casino, end of analysis

I hate situations like this when you’ve got a bunch of regs tryna bully a rec into doing something they’re clearly not comfortable with, then basically calling them stupid if you don’t do it.

What I've always wanted to know is: what pokersite do you recommend?

I don’t agree with Doug’s last remark, as if Antonio’s offer was not in the good spirit of the game; the entire game is about trying to let the opponent make -EV moves. And second, given that Antonio’s opponent is not a pro and probably has a smaller poker bankroll, it is reasonable that the deal they end up with is +EV for Antonio. The pro only looks at long term averages, while the amateur is willing to pay to reduce variance.

The whole lot looks high. What game is this?

BTW you are going to crush it if a live cash game course is created.Especially plo live low stakes where nobody folds pre.

Antonio needs to win what, like around 35% of the time to break even? Sometimes relatively short stacks make moves when they have drawing equity and a small pair, or something like A8s. It's a tough fold for Antonio really

Three interesting tidbits: Player publicly announces his mucked hole cards pre flop. (2 non J cards). Perkins also knows he didn't fold any J's. (Esfandiari may wrongfully assume Perkins folded a J due to his personal desire to be involved in the insurance policy given that Perkins only wins when a J doesn't hit.) Esfandiari got his $10k out of a pot that his own chips didn't match. Did we see AE match the all-in, then get his $10k or was it $10k from the existing pot with AE not needing to match the bet? What say we about these three little non-mentioned facts that make a huge difference in the math? THIS IS EXACTLY WHERE A PRO WOULD HOLD A HUGE ADVANTAGE over a recreational who would completely miss these critical facts.

Anyone else Fast forward anytime Doug's little box pops up?

When old man coffee x/raises you...fold!

Extremely instructive. I actually enjoyed the in depth thinking, maybe not by the players but certainly by Dp

I disagree with you last point Doug. Deal are a part of live games and rec players shouldn't have extra protection of even be sitting with pro players if they are bad enough to need your advice here. However, what made it a lil unethical for me is Antonio not matching Perks $6k offer and pretty much robbing him of the extra $4k there (not that he worked a better deal for himself than the equity would suggest. That in fact is an underrated skill of his in a live game). By the way did you see Bill Perkins sitting front row at the Rockets playoff game against the Warriors a couple weeks ago lol??

Offering bad deals and having them accepted is absolutely in the "spirit of the game." Just my opinion.

12:49 "I'm offering less money!" Yeah but the hand isn't over if he makes the deal with you, scarfy.

dont understand why does esfandari show his cards and its not all in?

You need a classier opener. Have you tried, "What's up guys, Douglas Polk here?"

It is what it is! Once you sit down, don't plan on any friends at the table until your butt leaves that seat :)

I don't like the fact that somebody who has folded cards is offering insurance. They are aware of 2 other cards. How do you know they didn't fold Jack rag?

3:25 guy in the middle looks like guy on the right 20 years older.

So if the equity is $6k... Rodrock doesn't want to get sucked out on (based on conversation Esfandiari seems luckier over him) so an extra 5% equity not so bad?

Doug are you only outing crypto scandals these days? Why aren't you helping Joey get the word out about ACR and the cheating scandal?

I feel there is some huge implied odds when someone is all in. Risking a brand new buy in, for like $50k is easily worth putting off while pocketing 75k for an amuater. Playing huge stakes against much better players the goal is always not to rebuy.

Can someone post the upswing poker content on piratebay?

I guess the $19 to $29 a month model is over, now it's $1,000 bucks a course lol! I guess if you're already at those stakes, it's just a buyin or fraction thereof. Is that the market for this course or are 1/2 regs expected to pay $1k?

Doug! Please do Poker Hands of some hands on "The Grand"- perhaps the greatest poker movie ever made. I'd love to see some analysis

Please make a video on the last hand on partypoker 5000€ when isildur call down with k6! sick hand

I just had to fast forward to the end and turn it off can't watch anymore

85200:100x6.82%=5810.64 was his hand worth in money to be exact

The real question is, what strings did Antonio pull to get invited to this lineup?

It was Perkins idea to offer money not Antonio’s and then Antonio just stated a ridiculous number and he could tell the guy was interested and didn’t care therefore it was completely fair

Can Rodrock profitably call the large pre-flop raise? NFL (not effin' likely). Why? Because there are very, very few good flops for his hand, and without a good flop he's unlikely to be able to continue when faced with a big C bet.

The worst I saw was the hand between Guy Laliberte and David Benyamine at Hogh Stakes Poker. Benyamine really got lucky there because Guy did not care about the money.

It's not that bad. The fair value would be 6k, not 4 or 5 and that dude probably would rather give up 4k more than feel the sting of losing.. I know I would in that exact situation. The bad part about it Perkins offering him the exact deal for 6k. and him saying no. Now that's dumb

So he's saying Antonio angle shot someone at the poker table? No way....I guess next he's going to tell us that water's wet.

how is this even allowed?...it wasnt even a heads up pot...wasnt the other old guy in the pot on the flop?

The "spirit of the game" is winning the max and losing the min. If a fish agrees to overvalue his opponents equity, that's his problem. Not Antonio's. You'd be a moron not to take that deal. If you want a better example of this, watch the hand b/t Laliberty and D. Brunson on High Stakes Poker (forget the season)

Like others have said, I don't think there's anything wrong with what Antonio did. Doug, would your argument be that he should only take an amount of money that exactly equals his equity in the pot? Is 1 extra BB okay? How about 2, or 5? Point is, if your opponent wants to negotiate, they are opening themselves up to making a bad deal, and if you're in Antonio's shoes you should get as much as you can, just as you would in any other business negotiation. This sort of thing happens ALL THE TIME in the live tournament scene. I've only agreed to a chop one time, and when I did it, an ICM calculator said my stack was worth about $25.5K, and I ended up negotiating for a $31K payout. Was that scummy? The players remaining were all recreational, and they wanted to chop, and they were willing to pay me a premium to agree to the chop. I've seen instances where there were 3 or 4 way chops and the chip leader took FIRST PLACE MONEY! I say good for him. As long as you aren't deceiving the other person in some way, making +EV deals is fair game.