I wonder Bart if you might run the hands through a solver and tell us what the solver thinks at the end. You mention often what you see solvers do. Maybe include that as an after thought after the reveal.
@@Moneyovertruth for how often he mentions solvers he’s never gone over a simulation and done an explanation video going over why the solver does what it does… would be nice to see him make some content on the matter.
Solvers are a classic example of “garbage in garbage out”. Meaning if your opponents aren’t playing GTO, as the solver assumes, the solver response becomes less and less relevant. Vast majority of live players at these stakes aren’t bluffing this river even close to the frequency that the solver assumes.
I do agree with you on the fact that you shouldn't follow solver to the letter, but by studying these spots in it becomes more and more easier to deviate from ''optimal play'' and adapt to the situation. By thinking solver is only bad because not relevant against majority of live player you restrict yourself from learning how to maximize your ev in certain situation. Btw solver pure folds A9 here because villain's only bluffs are 9x that b/3bet flop(which won't really happen in reality even vs really good players).
@@andycarriere1733 what does the solver call with on the river then? Feels like (in theory) As9x is one of the best hands to call since it blocks boats and the nut flush.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj The As not has relevant because villain should not shove flushes here is value comes from full houses and quads here. To be honest my first thoughts before looking at the hand was that its probably a hand we want to mix calls here since it felt better then a flush for the reason you mention. The problem here is that the solver is also bluffing 7x river trying to fold out a flush blocking some of our full house. So solver rather just call with nut flush blocking some fh and also winning against all the possible bluffs. They also mix some calls with other flushes but, mix fold with lots of them. But again we have to think about what most people would actually do in those situation, is villain really ever going to bluff 7x here on the river trying to fold out a flush or will he just bluff catch(also will he really bet/3bet 7x on the flop seems a bit unlikely). So A9 might become a better bluff catcher in play then in theory and could definitely be a better call then a random flush.
To be faire I lack a lot of experience in these live games, maybe its possible villain just goes crazy with a random bluff and then bluff catching becomes a bit better but by the description hero did it seems unlikely that this villain wake up with a bluff.
I played poker for the first time in my life yesterday as I finally convinced two of my friends to play with me. I did a quick headsup game w one of them and then a 3 handed round after that. Both just for $25 each. Ended up walking away with a clean $75 profit haha. Even got an insane cooler where I beat KK with A6o all-in on the river _both times_ . And in a week we’ll have a proper 6 handed game going. I’ve been watching your videos for a while and while I definitely have _a lot_ to learn and would probably get crushed at any casino, your videos did give me a really good baseline on how to look at the game in general so I don’t feel completely lost. Now that I’m actually playing the game hopefully more will stick with me and I’ll get the courage to start playing online
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj hitting 10% odds on the river twice in a row isnt a 1 in a million or anything but 30 min into my poker career was fun. That’s all this is. Has nobody in your life told you that you’re an annoying asshole? Or do you only act like this online. They’re doing you a disservice if they haven’t yet
@@noThankyou-g5c seems a bit of an overreaction. I was genuinely just asking, I wasn’t trying to wind up a new player, but I realise that my reply could have come across a little blunt. I thought maybe the board was something crazy like KAA62 or something for full house vs better full house.
Everything pointed to 99 and he had... 99. Don't overvalue blockers I think is the lesson. Since you have the As you could shove turn as a semi-bluff. But this does not look like a hand where two pair will be good very often.
This where reading a player for any kind of tells is so important resulting in losing or losing more. For me it's easy fold with flush and full house save your money for next better spot.
I've stopped at 3.20. This is another case of a trivial fold - on the flop. It follows my very specific rule that has never been wrong so far - will be interesting if this is the first time. Anyway, as per my rule, when you check raise huge, and villain reraises you exactly 3x... he has the effective nuts, and I'm talking about the most unlikely - either AA or 99. Hopefully there's a reveal. I'll be super shocked if villain only has Ax or just naked spades. The only draw he MIGHT do this with is Ts8s willing to call your reshove but AA or 99 is 98% of his range imo...
I think the bet on the river is daft,i mean what is calling you that you beat,i suppose exactly A7.I was even thinking check/fold before bet/foldand no way bet/call .I know people will bring up blockers as usual to justify calling but i cant see what bluffs are there that play the flop that way. I think one of the old poker books had a saying about big pots = big hands and that holds throught today,people are just calling too much when obviously beat,putting all sorts of stupid bluffs where they wont be
I may’ve leaned more toward a check/call to a reasonable river bet by V or a bet/fold but sizing the river lead bet closer to $1000(1/2 pot) as opposed to $600(~1/3).
This hand is fascinating, and it's one where equilibrium can help a lot. I don't know what thr equilibrium solution is here, but I agree it would be great to see what a solver would do here.
I legitimately can't find a single bluff for villain here. You have the Ace of Spades. MAYBE, maybe, they do this with AK with the K of spades. Betting into this river is absolute suicide and calling the raise is even worse. I just can't imagine villain bluff raising river after you called his 3 bet on the flop, the flush came in, the straight came in, and the board paired.
I'm not saying I never get into tough-decision situations. But 100%, I don't ever get into this one. Easy fold preflop, end of story. Calling with A9o OOP against a non-wild, skilled UTG raiser on my immediate left, just isn't my thing, not even close. Anything bad that happens to people who do call it while 600BB/200STR deep, deserve it. If in some similar situation, say with ATs (of wrong suit obviously, or back door draw) on AT8 flop where villain has TT, I face something similar, BUT WAY LESS OFTEN. We all get coolered. Don't get coolered holding garbage preflop hands you should have folded, and the amount you lose on coolers will drop way down. That doesn't mean I'm unbalanced and always have the nuts like a nit. I'd just rather balance my ranges with unexpected hands that are easier to play. I'd call with 64s or even 63s way before I'd call with A9o in that spot. The flop call of the 3 bet was also suspect. I'd fold or shove. When the spade comes on the turn, I'd shove. When the 7 pairs on the river, I'd beat myself up for not folding or shoving sooner. The problem is not figuring out what to do in that spot on the river. The problem is allowing it to happen. Call preflop, really? Raise call flop with 4 outs if you're behind, really? Give free river card on scare turn card, really? Those were the mistakes, not bet calling the river on the second scare card. By the river, hero is forced to decide whether he has pot odds (created by throwing his own money away on previous streets, that villain's shove takes all the equity from) to call and likely throw good money after bad.
One of the most interesting hands I've ever watched on this channel (and that's saying something considering the quality of the content here). I think this is just a pretty awful cooler. I think it's very reasonable to assume villain could be playing ace king like this due to the fairly wide range of hero in straddle.
shouldn't Hero push on the Turn? At that point, they both have pot-sized bets left, Hero was going to call no matter what came on the river (as the playout proved), and he might force some trips out of the pot with the scare card... Does that make sense?
the problem that makes this really interesting is that because of the preflop config (with the straddle range as wide as it is) villain could be putting hero on a mega draw and be blasting off with AKo thinking it's the effective nuts (the hand takes place in texas, after all)
@@NewEnglandFish The key is if the $15 straddle was optional or occasional. Hero was in the straddle, so he may (or not) have set his own trap. If optional, A9o should have folded UTG PF, and if not, A9o is arguably still a fold H/U vs TAG UTG raiser likely holding TT+ or Ace-Broadway suited.
THANKS BART!….. your vids have improved my low level game play. Even Rec fish can learn a lot if they pay attention. Tell me why I’m wrong on this point: At a 1-2 home game (200 max buy in)…. It is VERY difficult to be a long term winner when ( after a 4x preflop bet with premium pair) you almost always face 4-5 callers. Am I just in the wrong game?
Don't 4x open then. Open to 6x, or 8x... _but_ tighten your opening range accordingly, including remembering that speculative hands like suited connectors lose almost all their value at these shallow stack depths. The point is to size up your opens until you get one or zero callers, but tighten up the range that you open with preflop.
The problem could be lack of polarity. The game sounds amazing. Are you opening 4x with marginal hands too, or just premium hands? If the table knows "4x = AK/QQ+", they'll call just because they know your range, meaning you'll likely win a small pot or lose big. Use the same basic raise size for all hands, eg 2-4 or 3-5x. If they're not 3-betting frequently, you can raise (even 2.5x) quite often if you can outplay the field post-flop.
I think the caller showed good senses on this one, I would have played it exact same, not a bad call at all, just destined to lose here the way the hand played out, villain can still have bluffs that exist or occasional AK and hero loses to minimal hands and blocks all strong hands.
I think check call at the end is a better line. If he has nut boat hands or maybe flushes he will want value so is unlikely to shove. I just don't see many players showing up with air after you have shown strength. The player would have to be a proven maniac.
Super interesting hand. Coming from a player that is delving more into theory and improving my game, my thought process during this hand/review was that he had pocket kings KsKx. His pre & flop play heavily inclined to it imo. Pocket 9s we’re the monster under the bed, but sadly the monster was real this time ;( Like Bart said at the end, the money was going to get in regardless so just super unfortunate. Great review keep them coming!!
Once agian people are calling when obviously beat due to blockers and putting crazy bluffs into V range.There is fancy play syndrome but worst is Fancy play projection,ie thinking your opponent is capable of all sorts of mad crazy plays and bluffs when they arent there! Just fold!!!
Long time listener bart. I really enjoyed this one. I’ve seen a lot of AK played this way and don’t think I could find a fold getting more than 3 to 1 probably a fold to most OMCs but still can’t imagine folding. I think I’m in for a bet/Call at the end because I’d want to get value from AK/AQ. Im most likely calling off if I check to him anyways. Just chalk this one off in the “cooler” category
lol theres absolutely no way AK gets played this way as BET-3BET flop. Maybe against a complete spaz (Hero) but otherwise respect must be given to the initial raiser. You live in a fantasy land. the hands not even over and im still watching. the flop is either 77, 99, AA, A7, A9. only ONE of these outcomes are safe for hero which is a chop. This is obvious from the check on the turn when Villian clearly doesn't like the spades and is worried hero got there.
Tough hand. Got the A blocker, 9 blocker, spade blocker, and the 7 blocker on river. The problem is that villain is repping 1 hand from all those combos and they all got there and is comfortable getting the rest of the money in on the river. Or he just has complete air. It’s very very rare that villain has complete air with this line especially live poker unless this is his first time playing. I think I check fold here. AK is unlikely to 3 bet that big on flop this deep especially without the As. It screams set or a big combo draw. Mostly a set.
Haven’t finished the hand yet but did anyone else catch that they are at Rounders and the hand is shaping up like the Mike McDermott v KGB (A9 v AA A9X )hand from 1st scene of “Rounders” ?
I don't understand how V's river shove can be a bluff. How do you bluff someone who called your bet-3bet on the flop, and you don't hold the A of spades?
Why is there not more discussion about just fourbet gii flop? Is 3 b 2 me screams protection and he's putting you on some sort of combo draw. I think he calls it off with aj+
I think with the hero holding the Ace of Spades, it makes it much more likely that the villain has value when he 3 bets the flop… I think the only value 3 betting the flop are sets…
I think one key question here is would the villain 3 bet the flop with AK or perhaps AQ with a K or Q of spades or even perhaps without the spades? he obviously didn't 3 bet with a flush draw as he checked the turn unless he's doing that sometimes for deception but most likely not.
This is me not being totally delved into theory. I play a home game weekly, and have been trying to tune my game pretty heavy. Is there a case for just 4 bet jamming the flop while you’re almost always forsure ahead? There’s what, 3 combos of pocket sevens, and you’re blocking pocket nines. I don’t see that light a raise pre-flop from pocket aces.
I think we mostly just isolate ourselves against better hands when we do this. If he is spazzing out or doing some weird protection thing with AK I think he mostly just folds. We're folding out everything worse than our hand, and only getting called by better.
@@joshuan1991 You think AK folds w top top? And in some cases, I think there's an argument that villain is 3 betting w a draw as well. I feel like a 4 bet jam targets AK w/ the Ks, and I think even pocket Kings might call here w/ the Ks. I almost always rule out pocket nines here, and if villain is pocket 7's, it's sort of a "take my money" cooler. I feel like there's so many lines to take here. I was just curious what others thought. Appreciate the comment man.
@@Cesshiphop Yes, I think any good player folds one pair to a flop 4bet jam for 200bbs in a single raised pot. Its such a strong line, I don't think it would ever be a bluff unless you were doing it with exactly Ts8s
The guy played the hand exactly as if it was face up. He was scared you were slow playing flush at turn, then he bets when he hits boat. The only hands you beat were AK or 10 8 diamonds.
Does a turn shove get him off of his mid set? I realize its a reach. But honestly, for me, top two and nut flush draw, im 100% shoving the turn. So he would’ve stacked me as well. Great great hand review Bart. I really enjoyed this one 🫡🫡
Lol at all the defending of calling this preflop? I mean you got one of the miracle flops you actually want to see with this hand, and it’s still difficult to play out. I mean when you are spending this much time discussing hands across three streets like this when you called a raise out of position, the answer was fold pre. You can spit out all the solver says this you want at me. I’m never in this spot. Ever. A9 suited? Sure. You can call. This hand is straight up garbage. Period.
Having just gone thru the Betting Volume content on the CLP website, I'm wondering if hero should be bet-folding for value on the river since the villain has the nut advantage? (Hero doesn't have AA as played pre-flop ... and villain might call that river bet with AK or AQ.) It just doesn't seem like villain can make a large enough raise on river to bluff ... especially knowing Hero could have turned either a flush or a straight on the turn (or even a straight flush on turn.)
Follow-up questions ... do we bet-fold a straight or flush for value on this river? And if we don't fold our flushes or straights here, then can we safely surmise that almost no villain is raising our bet on the river as a bluff?
Would it have been a good idea to bet a little bit bigger on the river with plans to fold to a jam? I'm assuming that if we bet something like 1000 his air just gives up immediatly because they dont think they have any fold equity, and we can either take the pot with no resistance or just save 1000 dollars if we are beat
Trust your reads. If the guy is a studied tight player, a 3bet on the flop is a very rare nutted action. 95% of studied solid players are very unbalanced in this spot and won't 3bet the flop with the nut flush draw or even the straight flush draw. These type of players make their money from playing tighter ranges and getting value from loose players. They aren't there to make fancy plays and punt. The spade on the turn is the truth serum. When he 3bets flop and checks the turn, he almost never has a flush. If you had any doubt at this point, a 1/4 pot bet on the river would suffice. If some rare occurance villain had A7s or 97s, then he would just call river. If he raises, hero is beat. Hero has all the flushes in his range being in the str. It is common for hero to check turn and let the villain continue aggression on the turn and then bet the river with the flush when villain checks back turn.
V jams river when it looks as though H easily has pretty much the nuts: would even A♥️ 7♥️ fall into his value range? Facing about a half-pot-sized raise, odds laid are three to one, so H needs about 25% equity to break even, ignoring rake. For V: Obvious value = 99, AA, 77, 8♠️ 6♠️ Obvious bluff = 10♦️ 8♦️ I think I'm still folding river unless V is a maniac, as not enough bluffs to justify the call. If V checked back a brick turn instead of the 5♠️, then it's harder for him to rep the nuts on fifth street, as that would normally bet on fourth street. As Bart said, a lot of it does boil down to V's flop three bet range. ETA: I'm probably folding pre, but that's irrelevant for discussing this hand as played.
I feel like the villain told his story here. What bluffs are going to open first to act preflop and then 3 bet a flop that gives the straddle the range advantage? No way AK off 3 bets that flop. If the villain is a decent player like hero says, the villain would know that the straddle has the range advantage and still 3 bet anyway. He checked the turn because of the spade and got a great river card. Bluffs are 10-8 off which would never open first to act and AK off which would never 3 bet that flop. What other bluffs are there that take that line?
One of my friends from Puerto Rico is a dealer there. Hector. Great guy that I’ve known for about 15 years. I’ve played 5/10/25 at TCH and Lodge but will make it to rounders hopefully this year.
I would have shoved the river immediately when it came out. If he calls, he calls but I think that's the only spot you're getting that middle set to fold.
Does anyone ever 3 bet bluff the flop? I don't think I've seen it watching these big live games. Don't think you can ever fold just a cooler but maybe you need to fold. Until a bluff there is regular.
With $3k effective and the Hero holding Ace of spades, the $600 re-raise isn't likely AK. In any "normal" $5 game with 100-200 blinds in play, the 3-bet on the flop would be all in or close thereto, and could easily be AKo.
This was a very interesting hand. It’s super nitty but any thoughts about folding to the flop 3 bet? When hero has ace of spades, are there any 3 bet bluffs here? And are there any worse hands villain is 3 betting with? Maybe A7. Doesn’t seem like villain is 3 betting AK very often.
I guess it depends how wide V is opening. He’s effectively the HJ since it’s a 6 handed game with a straddle. JTss seems definitely possible. Then maybe 65ss. And T8ss and 86ss if he’s opening those hands. Of course even if he has those combo draws does he always 3 bet them on the flop? Folding does seem v nitty though.
3:50 Why do you have to feel more comfortable with A9 than 77? I get that A9 blocks AA and 99 but it’s a 6 handed game so V can have 77 and A9s. At least with 77 you’re beating A9s.
i mean idk about this one folks kinda seem like we are out to lunch here... As soon as caller didn't snap fold flop I was expecting him to tell us villain was a mega cannon... Don't think these spots really have much ev ur either dominated vs set or villain has boat loads of equity ...
Absolutely garbage players will fold this flop and other garbage players will call. Good players will simply jam all in over the flop 3 bet. The straddle was to $15 so hero is only 200bb effective and you aren’t willing to get 200 bb all in hu with top 2 on a draw heavy board this game is way to big for you.
@@drewcundari8773 are you talking about on the river? I am talking about on the flop. There are plenty of bluffs, plus people just over play ace king there. Also, it has everything to do with the size of the game. There is no way you or anyone else will be advocating folding flop instead of shoving in $270 more in a 1/2 games.
3 betting the flop ip he surely had a set ... checking the turn when spades hit and jamming the river ... I thought he had a set of 7 on the flop but he had 99 ... Very logical so you should not call the river bet
Should have been an easy 4bet shove on the flop. Too many runouts are hard to play and you loose value from AK and A7 that start checking back scary turns.
If you know the guy well enough to know he always has a set, A7, or A9 then just nit fold. Calling just leads to a stack punt anyway. 4 Bet or fold all day.
Anybody else see the irony here? You're playing at ROUNDERS... you're playing A9, and got stacked with top 2 on the flop. Was the Villian Russian? Did he turn over his cards and say "Nines full Mike" oh my God you're name is Mike also. Too fitting
I rarely disagree with Bart cause he is amazing, though on the turn I think 5 of spades is very scary, the villain could be raising flop with a high equity combo draw. Would be a straight flush so pretty much just got to go with A 9 with the nut flush draw however as the SPR etc, but it's a bit scary. Great hand though.
@@ihaok7454 Usually true, but some people like to throw that particular hand in their UG opening range. You are correct, but can not be ruled out in many live wild games. Good point though. I am a bit tired and for some reason thought a connector would work when I was looking at this after waking up, but still the one gapper hands can not be totally ruled out, but you are totally right, and so is Bart, as usual 🙂
Why not just get it in on the flop? Out of position on an extremely draw heavy board, I'd rather get stacked knowing I'm not giving villain 2 free cards than letting him get there on turn and river with his draws. If you're scared that you're beat and villain is never bluffing or 3-betting with A7 then just fold flop.
My sentiments exactly, any argument against stacking off makes calling PF seem like a huge mistake. It says "$5-5", but this game plays much bigger. I can't not stack-off with top-2, but that's also based on a smaller stack and mostly looser, lower-stakes opponents, even with "$5" blinds.
@@420villain Its a fallacy that you bet to get worst hands to call,a lot of the time you bet to get folds even from worst hand,im delighted if a flush draw folds flop. Sometimes you bet big to get folds as the run out can cause tons of problems and be a pain in the arse unless you are able to let go which this guy couldnt do
Easy fold pre against a skilled utg raiser. A9o is just not a hand I want to play oop. The flop is the most important street here, you flop pretty good but you’re too deep to gii so I hate the c/r. Sure you put him in a tough spot with AK but since you’re not getting stacks in you can still extract similar value with a cc line in the flop. Once the river hits you need to have a better plan, if you think this guy is capable of bluff raising I prefer just checking and letting him bluff bc I think that happens more often than he bluff raises so I think you get more $$ this way. When you bet the river the raise is just never a bluff. Sure you say this guy is capable of bluff raising the river but what hands is he doing it with? You hold the As so AK w/Ks? That’s a pretty insane bluff raise. I know he doesn’t have a lot value combos but he has almost no bluff combos
You're right. I once called a 5x UTG open by a total rock while holding AK on the button and hitting an A-high flop, only to be stacked by a set of Aces. $1/2 NL @ Orleans in Vegas, ca 2007. In retrospect, I should have folded pre flop, being a dog or tie vs. most of his (rock tight) UTG/5x opening range.
Why in the fuck does the hero not just jam all in over the flop 3 bet. Hero straddled to $15 so he has only 200 bb effective and if you aren’t comfortable getting in 200bb with top 2 on a draw heavy board hu this game is to big for you.
@@Its__Good no way as he is getting a good price so he will call with any kind of a combo draw and it kinda looks like you have a combo draw so he will often call with ace king. I would absolutely run over the nits in these comments sections.
I mean if hero wont shove flop it means hes is afraind of a set,now why bet into someone on the river with only 2 pair when that set can now be a house,the check back on turn just means a set is afraid of a flush,perfectly understandable.I mean withg that kind of warped logic then hero should just jam as he is not playing well post flop at all
@@Jesters_Thorny_Crown that’s because not only did mj get every call he deserved he got a ton he didn’t. Look up mj’s shot % at the rim in 96-98 then look up lebron’s over the last three years and then compare their fta. If you do this you will notice something absolutely mind blowing. Despite mj shooting mostly mid range jumpers he got more fts than lebron. It gets worse wizards mj who only shot jumpers still went to the line more than lebron who shots the 2nd most shots at the rim among all wings.
Man a lot of you guys disregard straight forward logic for these ridiculous analysis about WHAT potentially the Villian can have. Why cant all of you use common sense? The 3bet on the flop is indicative of AA, 99, 77, A9, A7, and VERY THINLY, 97. why cant you respect the 3 bet, or AT LEAST THE BET then JAM river and fold? Only an absolute moron thinks that Villain is doing this with AK/AQ. Villian is hoping YOU HAVE this hand when 3 betting flop. You check the turn which Villian doesn't like either. clearly he wasn't 3 betting a NON NUT FLUSH draw. In the end, it didn't matter since villian filled up. You guys are overthinking urselves into losing money. Theres a time and place for solvers, and theres a time and place for common sense.