Hope you all enjoy our latest Toronto to Vancouver Roundtable for Feb - aka the one where Steve fixed his lighting but we got a lot of names really wrong - hope you enjoy! Note that timestamps will be added to video shortly! ~ Urmi
Agree with Steve - we really need the cleansing of the real estate market for long term benefit of the Canadian economy otherwise the country will stagnate like Japan. It won't be long before the new immigrants realize the real estate ponzi and the quality of immigrants will drop significantly.
@@billferguson1368 Do you really think that he would have been able to change the market in Vancouver? LMAO. Of course he would do what he does for a living.
4.5% central bank rate in Canada has much bigger impact on demand in Canada than that same rate has on demand in the US. Most US homeowners are locked into 30 year record low mortgage rates - Canadians have to renew every 5 years. Immigration also plays a big role in containing inflation - More workers competing for the same job opening helps keep wages down. Canada with 1/10th the population of the US is letting in 4x more immigrants per year than the US
New immigrants live in relative's or friend's basements- or they rent. New immigrants therefore impact the rental market not the RE purchase market. On average it takes many many years for immigrants to purchase their own home. So the huge wave of immigrants that is getting started over the last year - won't really impact the housing market for at least half a decade. In the meantime they work, they rent and they save.
@@jimmybaggs5342 50 or 75 bps difference in rates between Can and the US in not as big a deal as people want to make it. Even Tiff said so. The "rate hike party" is over and the RE party is back on
@@jimmybaggs5342 Well, let's see what the cpi number for Jan is when it comes out on Tuesday. The RE market is back to around Sep 2021 prices. The BOC can't stop RE from going up. There is a demand supply imbalance that's not going away
As real estate in both TO and Vancouver is absolutely dominated by investor activity.. the team would be well served to carve out the sentiment and activities of both owner/occupiers and investors and offer explanations for the behaviour of both groups. If a couple is looking to settle down and move into a home they intend to stay for a decade or longer - then it is only really about - "can we afford the payments"? There is no need for that group to "time the bottom" or worry whether rates have peaked. They are in it for the long haul. Logic and sentiment on the part of investors however, is entirely another matter. Cap rates, cash flows and prospects of capital appreciation are more centre stage.
As usual lot of info, Thanks guys, house prices are part of inflation calculation, So agree with Steve if house prices jumps BOC will hold on higher rates, without demand destruction inflation wont be going away, stay tuned for a recession..
Hey guys, I did enjoy your last show about the Vancouver to Toronto roundtable. Just an idea, it would be very interesting and informative to add more realtors from other markets in the country as Montreal, Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, Fredericton, Halifax, Charlottetown and Saint John's. I Feel, it would bring a better understanding of the market in the country.
Thanks for watching and for your feedback! We'd be interested - please nominate professionals with interesting blogs/channels we should check out and consider for future ~ Urmi
Dumb money trying to jump in. #bulltrap set. BoC hasn't even paused yet and people celebrating the recession is over. Eggs are up 70%, me no think inflation is done yet. 😂
banking/credit is loosening up, is why the warm up. it may stay loose in Feb and March, then OSFI comes out in April, cool until next year when/if rates drop
I wonder if I'm the only Canadian with some savings who sees real estate investment as a possible hedge against high inflation? The price of real property may fall for one reason or another, but a house is a house, whereas a dollar will certainly become a dime due to declining buying power over time.
We need some regulation in the new builds industry. When prices go down builders enforce the original price you paid but when home prices go up the builders either cancel your project and relist it at a much higher price or they tack on additional fees above and beyond your agreed purchase price....in the end the builder always wins.
Yes - generally they do. But no one is holding your hand to the sales agreement , forcing you to sign. Buy a re-sell and stay away from pre-con, if you don't want to assume those risks.
We as Canadians spend way too much of our capital on Realestate investment, instead of spending it on IP (intellectual property), R&D and creating businesses that generate value. A big portion of our economy is now spent on rental properties, mortgage brokers and Realestate agents.
CPI calculation for shelter inflation is totally flawed for younger Canadians (age 35 and below). Assuming 2% of total dwellings change hands annually at least 20% of the dwellings (including new from builder to buyer) have changed hands in the last 10 years and we know the annualized price increases were above 10%.
Seems all trash. No expert knows what's happening with inflation. Just increasing interest rates, and making a headline won't impact. The investors are still buying the houses, no matter the interest rate. First home buyers are still not able to buy anything. What's the average salary of household in canada? Does the family with avg household salary able to buy home in canada? Answer is NO.
interest rates are keeping investors on the sidelines I hear basically ... recession or no recession questions? ... maybe it is just a short term Spring rise? interest rates will hopefully keep things slow?
These guys crack me up. Yup bidding wars, multiple offers.. lol. They take a few select deals and generalize the market. They have no idea where the market is headed. Unemployment has the biggest impact on real estate prices not interest rates, this has been highlighted by the bank of Canada representatives multiple times. Unemployment takes many months to unfold. Interest rates will continue to increase, if anyone thinks the current rates will decrease inflation to target 2 and 3% models are already showing further rate hikes are needed. It’s going to get very ugly well into 2024.
@@nickyfurlano8531 OK got it, you know better then our bank of Canada governor Tiff. He's only made the comment on unemployment having the biggest impact on realestate prices three or four times nowm that was not the point. Many Canadians can handle some degree of higher interest rates, its part of the qualifying process. If you become unemployed that changes things real quick. That has nothing to do with what buyers will start doing when rates begin to drop again.
@@marcelmed4574 I agree with you, employment plays a big part of house affordability, but recent labour market shows Canada added 150,000 full time jobs.
@Paul what does that even mean when I give you historical statistics you try to hand out an insult. I guess you have no argument other than that. Ignore the risks at your own peril.
@@reefermadnesss Nah bro, didn't mean to insult you - you seem like a good guy. Canadians are doing pretty good financially. You can't have a bubble if nobody is really selling and new listings are at 22 year lows. Where's all the panic selling?
@@baseline6786 Penniless immigrants push home prices lower. All the immigrants that come to Canada are penniless. They just end up living on the street and sleeping on sewer grates in the winter.
@@nickyfurlano8531 actually a lot of wealthy newcomers enter Canada. Sure many suck the life out of the system. But many that do come with cash. Not sure where you get your info from, but as much as you want prices to fall and hard, they may not. Just always gotta have a strike point to where u say this price is reasonable and i can afford it.
@@baseline6786 Come on, that way way back in 2015 and 2016 when the rich Chinese came here. Now its all the poor Chinese and everyone else is even poorer.
@@nickyfurlano8531 While we appreciate you watching, your comments here are being noted for inaccuracy. Please refrain from making inaccurate comments purely based on stereotypes you hold - pointing to a fact-checked news article or report to illustrate your point of view about the behaviour of particular market actors is of course fine. This is not it. For a researched look at what has happened more recently in the Toronto area when speculators increased home prices which then sharply came down, see John's report on the 2017 episode: www.movesmartly.com/lessons-learned-from-toronto-2017-real-estate-bubble ~ Urmi
No it just proves there’s demand and you’re broke maybe?? Because I’m telling you people live in a box and don’t realize how many people want to buy and have money and have worked for years. They have their down payment ready to go!! Immigrants who come here and also want a place. If people don’t like Toronto because it’s becoming NYC - so move out of the city then
Tennika has a valid point, lots of demand from immigration, not lots of housing supply to satisfy the demand. Overpriced mortgage maybe for short term investors, but people looking for homes to live in shouldn't wait, they should jump in now.
@@chrisskyllas1309 Horribly dumb take. Supply can abruptly skyrocket due to many circumstances. It just came out that 41% of Condos in Toronto are investor owned. What if those investors, or a portion thereof decide to sell? What about single family homes, what propensity is there for owners to sell? The income of the average immigrant is less than that of the average Canadian (measured by statscan on newcomers 5 years post arrival) so what good does it do for housing demand by importing people with less buying power? Interest rates have been raised for less than a year, despite effects typically taking 18 months to start showing up - and real estate downturns typically lasting 6 years. Tennika is a clueless housing bull who paid too much for a home, is getting killed on her mortgage premium, and is now trying to convince others she didn’t make a 2 IQ play.
@@jimmybaggs5342 My point exactly, the people that I said should buy now are people that actually need a home to live in, hence intend to keep long term. If the RE market corrects further short term, it will still appreciate in the long term. Home ownership is a good investment in the long term and those seeking to purchase a home for the purpose of shelter should not fret on trying to catch the bottom, that type of mindset is from an investor and I'm not talking about those people.
With depending upon the market, now 20-25% of all Real Estate owned by "Investors" in Canada, and indeed 40% of ALL new Home Construction since 2019 snapped up by "Investors"...... and for purposes of clarity in the discussion in this video regarding where Real Estate values are headed in Canada ? every time you hear a panelist use the word "people" ..... SUBSTITUTE the word "Investor" to garner insight into 1.) where BoC rates are headed this year (Hint: NOT lower) and 2.) where Real Estate valuations are headed well into 2024(Hint: NOT higher) Very simply because.... Real Estate driven debasement "based" CPI Inflation is completely UN-sustainable versus Debt Instrument growth as a percentage of Canadian GDP.... FORGET IT !
I agree, most real estate agents try to play themselves off as experts. 52 minutes of my life I’ll never get back. They generalize and have no clue. Collapse in prices take years to unfold. It’s going to get ugly.
@@baseline6786 There's some BBB low grade corporate bonds that pay 7 percent. Corus Entertainment is paying over ten. This Tuesday will be bad news for anyone who owns a house unless they downsized recently.
@@jimmybaggs5342 Tiff at the Bank of Canada will be forced to raise rates this Tuesday when the Canadian CPI comes out for January. It's supposed to be a doozy in the 7 percent range. Month over month also up huge.
There is not likely be a fire sale in Canadian real estate since people will try to hang on to their home despite the increasing mortgage payment from higher interest rate. This is true as long as Canadian economy does not go into a deep recession resulting in high unemployment. If people lose their jobs all bets are off. So far we still have strong employment in Canada and that's the key reason why we do not see a dramatic drop in real estate prices. The million dollar question is not whether interest rate will go up or down. It is whether we can reduce inflation without triggering high unemployment. It takes 12 to 18 months for high interest rate to show its impact to the economy. I think the jury is still out. Let's give it a bit more time.
Has more to do with access to debt.....if the osfi I Activates the new HELOC rules more homowners will be forced to sell....what we are seeing is homowners hanging on waiting it out to see 2022 peak prices come back while they heavily lean on HELOCS to pay the difference
People who have homes hardly lose their jobs. Anyone who I know who has owned have very stable jobs. Extremely stable. A TTC driver or a nurse or a teacher aren’t getting laid off. Think about that for a moment. Plus banks are bailing owners out… the market will stabilize soon and in 10 years homes will be worth another $500K to 700K again
@@Lifeisapartydresslikeit Dumb take. A bunch of 6 figure earning tech employees have been getting laid off. Take your head out of the sand and focus on paying off your overpriced mortgage.
Urmi, please let Steve and John complete their analysis before you totally change the subject. They were analyzing the recent booming subject and all the sudden you pull it to inflation debate and its calculation!!
Thanks for feedback! Having now added timestamps in Description above, I'm reminded that however clumsily, my little sidebar at 17:47 helped me understand why John and Steve were coming at the issue (started at 13:00) differently, sorry it didn't help you. Perhaps clearer segments such as the return of our "Interest Rate" corner are def in order! ~ Urmi
