Market Bubble Popping Now? Bull Run Over Says Gary Shilling 

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Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning. How should I reallocate funds within my $200k portfolio to navigate the potential economic downturn?

Scholars who study the stock market’s historical performance estimate that over time, the payment (and reinvestment, and compounding) of dividends have contributed anywhere from 30% to 90% of the S&P 500’s total returns. I want to spread across $4oo k into profit yielding dividend equities but unsure of which to get into.

What I don’t understand is, on one hand we are told the stock market will crash and yet on the other we are told ways of investing in the stock market. Oxymoron or paradox? I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.

Gary shilling doesn't disappoint. it's so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of equities is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)

David looks like he just got off a 3 day bender. 🤣🤣🤣

Can we get rid of the scam bots on these shows pushing phony services like this Tobias Hawke. To many scam bots that go into the comment sections and make up fake success stories on their investments giving credit to these scam services.

🚨SILENT🚨DEPRESSION🚨

No cuts are needed at all.

honesty is priceless...

I love Gary. National treasure

Chinese have an electric car for $11,000. What does Tesla think about that? Dr. Shilling is excellent and well informed.

Him getting excited about honey was my favorite part

Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

Fed won’t allow deflation. Lmao

I remember going to the grocery store with my father growing up. He would always complain about prices and say "son, one of these days you're going to have to pay $3 for a gallon of milk". In his mind that was his idea of total insanity. Last night I stopped by Walgreens and paid $6 for a gallon of water.

David, thanks for your consistently excellent interviews - concise and incisive.

Dr. Shilling is a real gem!! Thank you for presenting this insightful guest...good job, GREAT interview!! Good level headed insight...

i have read his newsletter for years. One of the great voices to be heard. Doesn t follow the crowd and gets the macro correct quite frequently. Don t let his age fool you --- he still has it . Also no agenda like many many talking heads. His monthly newsletter is quite voluminous and unbelievable thorough.

This is the 1st time I have heard Dr. Shilling. I like the old geezer....I'm an old geezer too.

I don’t know one person who has long term hope for the future of our economic system. It seems there is bleakness all around us. 😢

"Absolutely no substance to it" It's amazing that these "doctors" don't have the ability to define "money".

"Old man shakes his fist at Bitcoin"

This time is not different

Haven't seen Shilling in a long time. He's still sharp. Great interview!

David, you look tired brother. Take some time to relax and recover. God bless.

Great interview , its good to hear his perspectives. He's a wise man with decades of experience.

Lovely old guy but he doesn't understand btc. How much of a speculation is the prospect of continued currency creation. Zero . They will continue to print and spend therefore btc is the lifeline.

Hey my guy, prices are still rising and will do as long as the fed keeps spending.

No cuts are needed

Thank you David, great interview!

27th comment. I've been waiting for 24 months for the market to correct.

Gary is not pulling any punches on his crypto analogy.

Good interview thanks David 🥰

Bang on. Great interview. Great guest.

No cuts are warranted.

The way I shall become wealthy is by making music videos which feature clowns eating cockroaches

I love linden trees. Thank you professor for your time :)

Cuts will happen. Fed can do whatever, even to 0 if it feels like it.

lol.. the FED is absolutely not independent. However; our government is controlled by it whereas the Bank of Zambia is probably controlled by the government.

gold silver

Good questions 👏

The guys who talk like this live in the past, it reminds me of Stephen Vanmeter. On paper, you may be correct but in reality, if they give every person a check for $10,000 a month and they know the average voter is so uneducated that they would cheer on this. The US never have to worry about deflation again. Deflation will never be an issue going forward, With the politicians we have.

Interest rates are below historical averages. They need to go higher to crush inflation. The cost of credit must account for default risk and right now it’s not accurately reflecting that. The socialist world economies are actually bankrupt.

By the way, I've known the drilling is a beekeeper for many years. I've seen him interviewed a number of times in the past and bringing this very thing up. He seems like a very interesting person, quite normal and somebody would like to live next door to. (When I say normal, I'm not saying he's not incredibly intelligent, just that he is also a great person)

Warning about level of credit card depts in videos then advertising how to shop easier and faster on kudos with your credit card is exactly my humour! 😂😂

Over the decades Gary has always been insightful. Thank you gentlemen

Love this one

you can always trust Gary Shilling

I see no scenario with deflation given the amount of government spending

Very good interview

🚨BANK🚨RUN🚨SEASON🚨

While I don't totally agree Gary about BTC, I don't totally agree with blindly holding BTC through multiple market cycles. The moderate approach has proven profitable. It's for swing trading when weekly RSIs get extreme/divs. Rainbow log charts getting disgenuously adjusted, and the 4 year guideline is not creating longer cycles, which is actually concerning in terms of overbought. I can tell what mindset you come from David, but honestly you should consider yourself lucky to have the guests that do come on your show considering where your wisdom level is at, no offense. Some of these people have been through more market cycles than you have been alive, and BTC has yet to prove itself in a recession environment so... while it does move with gold sometimes, it has mostly moved with tech stocks. I regard it as a tech commodity. If you don't think it is a speculative asset anymore, I don't think you are being totally honest with yourself. There is also a cult like fervor that is honestly not healthy... hope people know about the liquidity pool that the BTC ETFs have opened with Inverse ETFs now... But hey what do I know, I am just some guy in the YT comments section 😉

Gary Shilling one of the old financial masters. Wisdom and knowledge oozing from his mouth.

Deflation means lower standard of living from inflation or deflation of money supply. All about standard of living.

I LOVE his views on Bitcoin ... BRAVO...👏

Was about to sign off at the end but glad I waited around - learnt about bees! 33:55

Deflation! EXCELLENT!

The last name seems appropriate but I suppose we will see very soon 😂

Wrong. As inflation goes up it takes more dollars to price the same stock. Duh🙄

Yup, Nope. Equities may be expensive but global liquidity is rising, the Fed is winding down QT and fiscal dominance still reigns going into the election. All that money needs to go somewhere.

😂 I didn't believe anything this guy said until he said "I dont have to worry about the price of a hair cut, but you do! 😂 truer words...

There goes bitcoin. No one could tell me what bitcoin does or how to use it. Except trade it like playing cards on a screen.

Yes, before covid I could get a haircut for $5-7 but now the cheapest I can find is $20-25 so there is much room for deflation

Doubt it.

Economy is not growing faster, inflation is growing faster.

He called 20 of the last 2 recessions

Typically with the surge in AI and robotics deflation would but the governments endless money printing will only accelerate and easily cancel any deflationary gains.

Gary Schilling was the 2 handed economist Truman said he didn’t want working for him.

Problem is the FED Powell is a disgrace

The value of an immutable honest ledger and a fixed supply that won't be manipulated escapes this old fart. Like there is substance to the dollar.

Great Hair David OMG!

Inflation measurements should be taken from San Francisco. Everything is very expensive here.

This is just baloney. The guy says invest in long U.S. bonds because interest rates will come down; also invest in U.S. dollars because interest rates will stay high. You can't have it both ways.

“Good luck” is an awful answer to a very credible question.

U.S. government cannot afford to have deflation. It makes that $34 trillion debt even harder to payoff.

This guy predicted the 2008 recession in 2006/'07. He also predicted a housing crash in 2012 (didn't happen) He also predicted a global recession in 2013 (didn't happen) He also predicted an oil crash in 2015 (didn't happen; albeit oil prices decreased for a short amount of time before jumping back up) He's a bit of a broken clock, which makes him unreliable in his predictions -- he'll be right eventually, but when?

All the people I know are punting in the stock market. I am waiting to see my shoeshine boy starts pumping all his cash into the stock market. 🙃🤣

No substance to bitcoin? You lost me there when you glaze over the work of a book like softwar and other very reputable works - this guy is holding on to the past and I bet doomed to be a forgotten past. Good luck

55%? It looks to me that the shiller pe is indicating 100% overvaluation. What am I missing here David?

"It's a fiction, there's no substance behind it that anyone can identify".... 100% agree this describes the US dollar.

In EUrope crypto over 1000 Euros must already be reported. Or else ... 60 hives?!?! WTH!

If there was deflation the government debt would be so astronomical relative to already how astronomical it already is

“Just panting to be bought” Haha

while he may be right in the macro, would he have dismissed google and facebook in the 2000s because people were not aware of thr disruptive nature of onlime advertising vs traditional

"part of that whole yale thing."

David looks sick. Hope you feel better!

Best interviews on RU-vid 👍👍👍

What about the debt?

Nope, equities will only go higher!

Deflation can't come anywhere near into play until you first have disinflation

The fed creates the bubbles by inflating which altimately burst causing a depression. Edward G. Griffins book The creature from jekyll Island explains this.

Every guest says the opposite of what last guest said 🙈

"stocks are..." is an imprecise position to start with. Which ones? The sp500 is dominated by a few. The rest of the market is so diverse that it makes no sense to me to talk about "the stocks".

Always find it amusing when a old ( in this case) really old timer says Bitcoin is worthless. But he can't tell you why. He's never read anything on the subject - but he knows better - than you or me.

Ha ha. David went out for a few last night.

Fiscal dominance is real. Basically $1 trillion USD in interests payments is sloshing around trying to be spent. It’s like a perpetual Federal Reserve interest rate cut (FNA economic stimulus).

Cuts are inevitable. Otherwise interest payments will b untenable

This guy has been calling collapse since the day he was born!

I agree with him on some points, but this guy seems to think that cheap buggy whips are at attractive values, because these newfangled horseless carriages don't have anything pulling them.