I'm now retired but spent my career advising people on their investments, mostly stocks, bonds and mutual funds but also real estate and hard assets. I mention this because I've spent over 40 years analyzing charts and graphs. I have to agree that it seems we are late in the bottoming process but I've also learned ( very painfully sometimes ! ) that trends can last much longer than you think, whether up, down or sideways. What I feel fairly certain about, however, is that whenever it comes, the next major move is up, not down, and the longer it takes for us to get there, the bigger and more sustained that move will be. There is an old chartist saying I'll bet you are familiar with " The longer the base, the greater the face ( of the slope )" . Love your videos. keep up the great work. Always usable content, sometimes with humor, never with hype.
Best comment I’ve seen on comic values in awhile - though I’m not as confident your are that the next move is up vs down. I’m interested to see though.
We could have a fake upslope and then a lower low before it truly bottom outs. We still have not hit the previous high of 3960 which I think we still will hit before it truly bottoms out
Based on your research when what parts of the year do you feel are the cheapest months to buy comics? Looks like to me Nov/Dec and around July.. Your thoughts
I would love the comic books to bottom in value. Then all the passionate comic book lovers can finally collect the books they always dreamed of collecting.
If you look at the market from a different angle and remove the monetary component, the demand is still there because of the entertainment factor. There is still and probably always will be the sentimental aspect, people like myself maintain a true love for owning comics in their collection and are willing to put money towards the hobby no matter how good or terrible the economy.
When you spoke of X-Men '97, it brings up a valid point - that there has been precious little inflation due to spec over the last couple of years (although those values soon course correct). I wonder how Hall H will impact the market this July...
@@user-oq9mv8pc2g As a former owner of two comics stores, I can tell you. 95% of the books are fireplace kindling. If you buy them to resell and they do not sell thru, then your profit is sitting on the wall on books that will never rise in value. The other 5% rise in Value if one is lucky!
I had a GREAT time selling at the con this week. It was fun to see people being passionate about even small books. If you never looked at a chart, you’d think there was never a boom and bust to most of these guys. It was refreshing to see. My thoughts are there will always be comic heads, no matter what the market is and I’m still glad to be a part of it.
Love these videos! From IMO, which is based on 0 facts, I think the market is doing ok. I am having no issue selling books, my local LCS is slammed on NCBD, and I am having to haggle a bit more for Silver age books.
Every time I see the copper age graph by itself, it looks a lot more positive. It seems that prices are higher now than pre-COVID boom on average. But when it's compared to the trendline of all comics combined, it's not as pretty. I'd be interested to see a trendline for each age, because copper age seems to have been flat for years with very little upwards movement, if at all.
Right now, the market seems to be either raw copies or 9.8 CGC for those who can afford it. Can't say if we are going up or down, but my comic buying is on hold for now. I already bought my 'good' deal for the year. Next year I will see what happens.
It turns out that if you decide to change your approach to grading after nearly two and a half decades of grading comics people are less inclined to value your opinion and pay top dollar for graded books with your label on them.
On Silver Age, if you draw a trend line from that low point around September 2023, it appears to show a fairly steady increase. Likewise, Bronze seems to be holding its own, although not as robust as Silver. I think things have settled back to normal.
You can’t really draw a trend line over a few months in a market this illiquid, but going back years, it does seems the excesses have been mostly wrung out.
This is the bottom if we get a recession could dip but then you are getting long term deals. This looks like fair market value the bubble looks like it has been sold off.
I do think we have come to a bottom and things are going to be a bit more positive and exciting going forward. The Bank of Canada lowered interest rates for the first time in 4 years and I agree with you that comics somewhat follows economics. It's interesting that this is happenign at the same time. But you still have high prices from some sellsers so beware, be patient and be ready for something you didn't expect that maybe you find a good deal and grab it!
Something interesting to think about. Can anyone think of a market indicator book. Or maybe a few market indicator books that give and idea of the state of the comic market. Maybe even in each catagory of Silver, Bronze, Copper. For example in the coin world in Morgan Silver Dollars, the 1881S dollar is a market indicator indicative of if the coin market is going up or down. Would be interesting if we could figure one or a few for comics. Some are just too volatile, like I expect 1st appearance of Deadpool to drop after the movie. Others like NYX #3 for X23 have been going down like $100 a month for past 5 months and then jumped up $200 only on speculation of movie cameo. With no evidence. Need more stable books to find the indicator books. There has to be some???!!!?
Ok so I have been wanting to buy a 1961 Fantastic Four number 1 coverless. Eday selling around 3000. Comic Connect has one for 4000. Got one last week for 2400. The one on Comic Connect as been there since Feb
Thanks Swagg. Doesnt feel like buyers are particularly excited to scoop up the dip. Im getting alot of low ball offers even for books that are set at current FMV. Do these indexes account for IG prices which seem to get lower and lower by the week?
No. I just saw GODZILLA 1 in 50 sell for 500 it was not graded! Maybe older artists who built the thing are bottoming out. Go look at scotty young he sells out all the time
I think it's a bit of cope ...im not trying to be negative but I watch alot of books not move at all there are a few books on ebay that have a 1000 print run (from the early 2000s ..not manufactured scarcity..these are books that were at the end of life for a company) ..these books don't stay on ebay ..when they go up they sell inside a week..there's currently 5 copies on ebay all in various condition at or slightly higher then FMV..they have sat for going on 4 months now ..the sellers keep sending offers out and no one is biting.these arnt cheap books but also not crazy expensive..the collecting rabble (joe collector) dosnt seem to be buying unless it's a noticeable deal, while the bigger flippers buyers sellers seem to be juggling books back and forth ..I suspect we havnt seen the bottom
It would be nice if private sales could be added. That is where most of your comics are moving. These graphs do not show flea market sales or sales through places like Facebook market place.
Good thought, but not realistic. I sold a wolverine mini 9.6 last month for $340.. who do report that too.. and how would they verify the sale and price?
@@user-vy7yf2wo7k That's my point. There is no way to report every sale. These graphs show sales through major companies. This only shows a low percentage of sales throughout the community.
They are going back down to pre covid prices. That isnt a bottom. The economy was way better at that point than it is now. If we get into actual recession then yea they will tank way worst than they are now. Issue is all these new covid "investors" thought hipcomic and key collector collection prices are accurate. When in reality most comics are 7-9 cents in the resale market. or 56 cents after fees if you sell on ebay at $1.... outside of Spiderman and batman that might be difficult still.
Yes 99% of comics are virtually worthless. I get the chart is talking about the other 1% but it' interesting to see if people are picking up cheap books to read.
If we see a change in Washington in November then yes comics have bottomed. But if we continue with four more years of this economy then we keep going down.
i dont buy comics are ever going to truly die. I collect golden age because i like the weird old style art and violence, and i imagine other young ppl feel the same.
