Klatt in my opinion is the best, he has well thought out opinions based on statistics and analysis of game film and he looks at teams as how they are currently, not bringing up failures from the past decade to "prove why x team will lose".
Well it was better than his analysis of Alabama - Michigan. So tired of hearing 'give Saban a month and_____ fill in the blank) Joel had Washington and Alabama in the NC with a lean toward Washington as the Champs. Now he thinks Michigan is the favored. I think he has this wrong. Washington is so much more efficient on offense Michigan will have a hard time keeping up. Comparing the Huskies to Bama passing game 4600 to 2800. A much more lethal passing attack by Washington Another stat: Alabama ran 66 plays to Michigan 59 and time of possession went to Bama 32 to 27. Not quite the boa constrictor Michigan is touted to be.
@@19MarkDavid I am so sick of hearing they are good because they are cheating. I knew that it wasn't Connor Stalions stealing signs because signs don't give you that much of an advantage anyways. Maybe 10% advantage so the risk is just not that worth it. Its accusation by Ohio State because they cant accept that Jim reached out to John for help. That is exactly when Michigan started to improve. It was a talented coach that made the program better.
Except Michigan defensive stats were padded by playing: East Carolina, Rutgers, Bowling Green, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa and UNLV. That's 10 out of 14 games. No wonder their defensive stats are so impressive.
This is why I follow the show… I love Joel’s match up episodes because I feel like I get to go to a college football clinic or class every time. This might be my favorite episode ever!!! Thank you!!!!
I'm just so impressed with both teams. Both teams have shown an immense grit throughout the season to overcome adversity and the talent to clearly be at the championship level. I think with those two teams it could go either way, and dramatically so. Congratulations to Michigan and Washington on having absolutely incredible seasons. You made your fans very proud. Go blue.
This show is simultaneously informative and hilarious. Thank you for a great season! Michigan 38 Washington 27 for the reasons you mentioned-Michigan is built to beat this exact team
Husky fan here who couldn’t have asked for a better match up. Undefeated against undefeated. Rose Bowl history. Diametric styles of play. All of this makes for a very interesting game. I have no prediction of who will win but have some confidence given UW winning so many games where they were the underdog. No matter what it will be fun to watch and the most deserving team will win. I don’t expect any flukes.
As a die hard Nittany Lions 🦁 fan, I am rooting for you guys Huskies!!! And, remember that you guys are the only undefeated who aren't cheaters!!!!! WE ARE
@@kevinchandler179i like how Joel literally told people to stop it with the Connor Stallions bs and Big10 fans still need to cry about it after the fact. 😂
@austinfigueroa4851 Cry, it's frickin cheating!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do you think none of the steroid cheaters in MLB are going into the Hall of Fame????? Same, exact thing, cheating is cheating!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@kays6665 Well, cheaters should never win, they should have been disqualified, literally!!! With respect to Oregon fans, you would feel differently if it was next year and you were in the big ten already? Thanks 👍
Incredible breakdown on the why and how UW needs to play to win the game. And how Jim reconstructed his defensive scheme to beat OSU which mirrors UW’s offense. Amazing stuff!
@JoelKlattShow You actually first used the "boa constrictor" analogy not this year, but last year in the shoe, when Michigan beat the buckeyes for the 2nd time. Good work Joel!
Excellent analysis, and not just because I agree! But I wanted to point out that you predicted a Husky win immediately after the semifinals, then changed your prediction after taking the time to do a deeper dive. It shows that you're human and can get caught up in the moment just like the rest of us fans, but that you're also an analyst with integrity, someone who can use data to override first reactions even when that first reaction is your own. I appreciate your integrity.
Washington has been the dark horse all season so at this point I’m going to choose them and not because I’m disappointed by the outcome of the Rose Bowl, both teams are solid
Difference in TX and Michigan's pass rush is, TX had only 2 guys that could force pressure and they were both interior guys. Michigan has 7 on any particular play and they rotate guys in along the DL constantly
And I've been telling people that I've been saying Michigan's defense is a lot different than Texas nobody wants to believe me that Texas default is not like Michigan
@titoham-DCXLs beating up 8 of the worst offences out of 133 teams is not that good a flex. bama(56th), OSU(47th), moved the ball well enough and neither are remotely as good as this squad.. spicy ground hogs are going down.
You & Greg McElroy are the two mainstream college football figures I will actively seek out for analysis. What a FANTASTIC breakdown. The history, the stats, the nuance… Everything was amazing. You made your choice off of real analysis. Appreciate this kind of dedication 💪🏾
IMO, Michigan also implemented the Ravens hard nosed, gritty culture. Instead of finding ways to lose close games, Michigan now is money in the clutch and (almost) always finds a way to win. They aren't afraid of the big moment anymore, they embrace it. The bitter disappointment of the last two CFP's will make U-M play inspired football. Washington wants to win, the Wolverines NEED to win.
Both of the Harbaugh brothers got that gritty football style from their father who coached for the legendary Bo Schembecler, and Jim Harbaugh played for Bo.
Joel is the best & rivals Herbie. No one ever mentions he played QB @ Colorado. He's called almost every Michigan game this year, so he knows first-hand what he's talking about. Wonderful to hear his in-game analysis & then the podcasts really go deep. Glad he got to go to the Rose Bowl as a spectator with his family - even football guys deserve some time off!!! Keep up the great work & Go Blue!!
man, Joel, you really sound like the smartest football analyst out there. you get into the weeds and talk about stuff that matters, but which we don't hear from other mainstream analysts. thank you and great work!
My only question is to see how a team whose identity is passing does. Michigan played almost exclusively Big10 teams who were 70% run and sprinkled in passes. Very curious how this unfolds
But Michigan also did not face explosive offensive teams like UW did in USC, UO (2x's), Texas, etc. This is why 'stats' simply do not tell the story. I'd like to see the stats of UW D result vs. opponent average in other games.
Michigans Defense will control the game and control Washington’s offense by controlling the ball longer, eating up the clock with Michigans run game, Blake Corum will have an outstanding game, D.Edwards will finally come to life in this game.
If dillion Johnson is out I can agree. But I just don’t see them being able to control the offense. Michigan will clearly fall on the run game until they can stop it or they need to get away from it but penix and those guys and balling right now
But they (Washington) haven’t played an the elite defense yet # 1 ranked overall in college football… P12 is not known for defensive teams and Texas defense is not great either
Joel, this is the most precise analysis I've seen. It's incredible to think about how valuable it will be to look back on it in the months and years to come!
Yes, Alabama had 2 terrible snaps when driving, Milroe fumbled and still Alabama was one play away from 2nd OT, and with a roll out Milroe scores, all that at the big 10s rose bowl where Alabama was leading 20-13 in the 4th quarter, so congratulations to Michigan you won,,,,barely
@@johnotto4931 so you still believe we scared 😂😂 We was down 20-13 and went down the field and scored, the only thing we was bad in was the special teams, other then that Alabama couldn't touch Us
@@hopefulelectoftheng2819 you’re just parroting what all the talking heads are saying, y’all couldn’t get any offense going against Alabama for 3 quarters then the D was gassed, cudos to Michigan for being deeper on defense that was the difference
I find this matchup really intriguing just bc UM is built to play this UW team. Absolutely correct in the amount of possessions being important, but awesome little tidbit; bc UWs defense is not great, going back to early in UM season, they wanted to throw on defenses like that. Wouldn’t be surprised to see JJ sling it, they’ll obviously be able to run it if needed.
I would rather Michigan run the football more against a subpar Washington defense, and churn the clock out. I believe that's the path for a Michigan victory. Michigan can defend very well. But, the fewer possessions, the better. I would rather it be a rock fight. I will say, because of that, Michigan 35, Washington 21. 〽️💛💙
Two things about the Washington defense that every analyst overlooks... 1: UW has played against 8 (!!!) top 50 offenses. Michigan has played against 2. 2: The UW defense is extremely clutch. They have shown to make 4th down stops when needed and have save the game with a number of second half and 4th quarter shutouts.
They just gave up 31 points and 498 yds. The Huskies aren't putting up 40 on UM. Penix Jr. Gonna need some insurance. UM's D has been going up against 1st rnd. Quality offensive lineman the last 5 weeks. I'm not too worried about Washington. One trick pony 🐎
@tomrockhill8634 my entire comment was describing how the numbers on paper don't tell the whole story, and all you can come up with as a response is to yet again regurgitate useless stats. If Michigan played 8 top 50 offenses instead of 2 their stats would be worse as well...
This was the best Joel Klatt show of the season. Perfectly described why you’d want to pick Michigan here. Gotta respect Washington though: if Michigan makes turnover mistakes, they can still lose this
Michigan also makes very few penalties, where Washington makes many. Michigan is ranked #2 in FEWEST PENALTY YARDS PER GAME whereas Washington is #129. This represents a disciplined wolverine team that will be victorious.
Michigan's offense is the key, running the ball, mixing in play action, just simply score not for shoot out purposes, but we need JJ McC. Best game ever.
How do we know Washington will be able to get stops? Michigan likes to be on schedule so the run and pass attack will be balanced. If Washington Dline gets pushed around, they're in trouble.
@downtownbrown50 Michigan isn't going to shut the passing game down. They didn't shut down OSU with Stroud and his 1st rd wrs. The key is limiting Washington to fieldgoals. Michigan can give up 400 yds passing and still win. Can Washington give up 250 yds rushing and win?
Michigan 37, Washington 21. Michigan is the 1st ranked defense, Washington is 60th in defensive efficiency, i feel like Penix still goes for 3 tds, 300 yds, but also throws 2 picks, and falls behind due to Michigan running the ball hard against washingtons front 7 and bleeding the clock out. Halftime score being Mich 17. WASH 14 before Minter adjustments...
Not sure Ohio State and Washington are the same offense. Sure they have high level players for their passing offense, but the play calling and design is completely different
After careful critical analysis as a big Joel Klatt Show fan, the intro slightly changed on Tuesday of this week (Jan. 2nd). It looks like they re-recorded the best line "It was an EPIC day for college football.." at 0:15. Let's bring back that original gravitas to the intro. Need it. This show is too good.
I am not even a big college football fan. I followed Notre Dame a bit as a kid in the 80s because my grandfather and uncle went there. Then a little while Johnny Football played at my alma mater. I really just watch because I appreciate Joel's analysis and ability to be humble when he is wrong about something (like last weekends game).
Joel - excellent show and analysis as usual. This is greatly appreciated! Long time Michigan fan and season ticketholder here. Michigan's approach will probably be similar to the game plan for OSU in 2022. OSU had an elite QB in CJ Stroud and elite receivers. Michigan wore down OSU and then big plays opened up. Run, run and then run some more. Get 3-5 yards a carry, mix in some passes, move the chains and then score TDs. Keep Penix off the field and the Michigan defense fresh. Reviewing the stats, Washington's defense is not on a level commensurate with its offense. Michigan's offensive line will probably be able to open up holes for Blake and Donovan. Watch for Conelius Johnson and Roman Wilson to have big games next Monday. Go Blue!
Let's say that you are correct and UM doesn't have an elite QB, do you think they'll need one to win that game? Out of these two teams only one has the ability to win that game 9-3 and it's not UW. We're fans and by default we're super biased, but man this is a really bad matchup for UW.
Texas fan and 30 year season ticket holder here. I am pulling for Michigan all the way. Washington definitely out played Texas but the Longhorns were in the game until the last play. After a game like that one where it was hard fought and could have come out in either team’s favor it is usual protocol to have a few gracious words for your opponent ( yeah, I’m old school). Neither coach Deboar or Michael Penix mentioned Texas, other than coach Deboar saying (I’m paraphrasing here) that he didn’t believe that the game should have been that close. I felt they disrespected the Longhorns. Most of the Texas fans I’ve talked with feel the same way and will be pulling for the Wolverines. So as to not be hypocritical , congratulations to Washington for their Sugar Bowl victory. 🤘
Michigan wins in a blowout. Washingtons defense is the 2nd worse defense Michigan faced this year. And Michigan is by far the best defense Washington has faced this year. Go Blue.
Michigan 28, Washington 21. I don’t understand all the predictions of this being a high scoring game. Michigan is going to try to keep Washington’s offense off the field with sustained drives that take up the clock. Penix will make some plays but Michigans secondary is leagues above Texas so we’ll see how effective he is. I think Michigan has the edge.
Michigan's toughest challenge was the OSU Stroud offense. Majority of those players are back from the last 2 seasons that faced Stroud and his 4 1st rd pick wrs. Michigan was built to compete against high octane offenses.
this is a matchup that favors Michigan heavily. Its gonna take a special performance from Washingtons oc, oline, and penix for them to pull this one out, which i think is possible
lifelong Washington fan here, Washington needs to play a near-perfect game. The silly mistakes that they have been prone to make can't fly here. Should be a great game. I'm happy we are playing Michigan for the National Championship, it just feels right.
@@jrrizz0563 They were VERY fortunate that last, botched punt didn't end up being a safety! Somehow, UM had the fortitude and resiliency to pull this one out.
Joel Klatt is one of the best. Former player, no nonsense. Just a fantastic analyst. He said it best. Texas' defense is 94th in passing defense. Michigan's is 2nd. They haven't played a defense like this. Michigan also hasn't faced an offense like this. They have faced an Ohio State team that in 2021 and 2022 was also an elite passing attack. They were literally built to stop that passing attack. If they play their own game, Michigan wins. If it turns into the Michigan-TCU game, Washington will be National Champions.
In the shadow of Penix's arm, Dillon Johnson avg over 5 yards a carry. Absolutely overlooked by everyone. However, no one knows how bad his injury is...
One point Joel didn't cover was that Washington won 10 games by 10 points or less, and 5 in a row by less than a score. That shows guts and confidence, but I don't believe they can win games like these against a Michigan team. I hope I'm correct... lol! Go Blue!
Totally agree with Joel's take. My cfbstat model is from the 14 FBS games each played to-date. Here is the stat that jumped off the page to me ... Washington is the #115 team nationally in 1st downs allowed per game. #112 nationally in rushing first downs allowed, #133 in passing first downs allowed, and #133 in penalty related first downs allowed. Yes ... in the last two categories they are dead last in the national ranking. Michigan's offense wins this game due to TOP (UW possession limits) and Michigan's defense applies the pressure on Penix like it did to Alabama. UM35 - UW 20
Only issue with stats like these is that they aren't adjusted for the offensive play styles of opponents. When you play multiple top 10 offenses, your defensive numbers will skew much worse than they actually are. Are we great? No. Are we a bit better than the average CFB team? Yeah.
Stats don't mean anything. NFL teams don't draft based off stats. If we did go off stats then the number offense in the country, LSU would've been playing Michigan instead of Washington. If Washington's defense is as bad as "Stats" say. Then why are they here? Why were they able to limit Oregon's high-explosive offense TWICE? Texas offense??? Meaningless doesn't mean anything.
Joel, I highly doubt you'll ever read this, but I love the show. Your insight and knowledge is second to none. That said, you forgot to mention the fact that Marvin Harrison, Jr. was ALSO on the *uckeye's roster when Michigan broke through and beat them in 2021. That is one of the most talented rosters to not make the CFP since it's inception.
Joel, you should take 100% credit for the boa constrictor analogy.....which btw has become totally mainstream way to describe how this Michigan football team operates. You were the first one to use the analogy.....and clearly you were spot on.
Over the past few years I have been impressed with Joel's lack of emotional attachment or any sense of homerism. That said, he is one of the few analyst that: a. played the game at a high level, b. is capable of evaluation beyond narrative, c. is smart enough to parse stats and scheme with context. It is not just the lines and numbers, but weighing those stats against the capabilities of the teams played against. Joel is actually a football mind. Unlike almost everyone else.
If you asked me before the Alabama game who might win this, I’d be more nervous for Michigan than I am now. They’re not great under pressure, whereas Washington is explosive enough to come back from any deficit. But the final two drives of that Alabama game showed that JJ and the Offense can indeed stay calm and do what needs done, and I think that in combination with their impeccable defense will win them this no matter the circumstances Washington puts them in. Go Blue!
Not great under pressure? Michigan had 3 close games at the end of the year 2 against top 10 teams and they closed them out. Michigan is an elite second half team
Penix can come back vs mediocre defenses. Michigan's defense is elite, but I do think this is the best passing attack Michigan will see since 2022 OSU game.
@@TheKiid810- came here to say the exact same thing. Michigan is and has been all season fantastic under pressure. And that’s playing half a season without the game day influence of your head coach.
Not sure if we have seen Michigan’s defense really tested. They’re amazing, I don’t doubt it, but they haven’t seen any quality qb’s/passing attacks. It will be really interesting to see if they can do the same to this UW offense. I think it really comes down to the offensive line for Washington, if they can keep that dline from getting pressure then the huskies win, if not Michigan wins by strangulation and rock em sock em outlasting UW
@@udubdeuce I have, and they're good. The problem is at any level of football, when a great offense goes up against a great defense, what usually happens? The great defense usually wins out. And it's a problem especially if you have a great offense that has to carry a poor defense. You are ignoring the fact that Washington is weak there. Where can you say that Michigan has a weakness on offense, or defense? The answer is nowhere. Which means Washington is going to have to play an absolutely perfect game on offense. If they turn the ball over even once against Michigan, it's probably game over. Not spewing hate against Washington. Terrific offense, they have, indeed. But, football is a two way sport. If you want to win championships, you have to be sound fundamentally on both offense and defense. If you give up 30 points or more on Monday, more than likely, it will be Michigan winning. Why? Because they can run the football very well and grind clock, limiting their possessions. And the more you limit great offense's possessions, the more likely they are to make mistakes they normally don't make. Even if I wasn't a Michigan fan, I would be saying the same things right now.
That a lot of words. Michigan has not played a team like UW this season. OSU? No. Penn state? No. Rutgers? Maryland? Iowa? Purdue? Mich state? Michigan has had a good year but over inflated stats on both sides of ball. Washington has faced and beaten multiple ranked teams and offenses. We’ll see in a few days. Go Dawgs.
@@udubdeuce You haven't faced a team like Michigan. Not even close. Not a team with a stalwart defense and efficient offense. It's very simple. If you can't stop the run, you can't win. We'll see who's correct on Monday. Go Blue! 〽️💛💙
One thing I think you are missing when comparing defenses...Who was the best QB that Michigan has faced? Or the best offense? Teams had to let it fly to play with Washington. That changes a lot of those rankings for scoring defense and total defense. UW played Cam Ward (who OSU wanted badly in the portal) Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix twice. This is by far the best offense and QB Michigan has seen for a long time. The over reliance on these types of stats will get you in trouble--but I do understand it helps an "anylist". The best defense is the one that allows fewer ponts than their team scores in a game. There are only two teams who are 100%. Washington and Michigan are obviously the top two defenses. On Monday night we find out who in fact has the best. Other stats just don't matter. It is just the win that matters!
I still don’t understand how everyone can just look past the insane amount of change that Michigan went through post Covid and boil it down to: Conor stallions. Michigan literally rebuilt both sides of the ball to basically be an SEC team lol insanely fast on the perimeter and insanely tough up front. It’s all right there
I deleted my comment. I think I misunderstood what you meant. I agree. Michigan has made a lot of progress over 8 years and for people to just pretend they are only winning bcz of the scandal is incredibly myopic and lazy.
Washington's D can be sneaky good...they've been underestimated by almost everyone. Will be fascinated to see if Michigan's pass rush and pass D are actually that good, and if Michigan can run the ball.
Could not agree with you more Joel... Michigan is built from the ground up to defeat the pass happy offense. 7-9 minute drives on offense, flex between the twenties on defense, stiffening In the red zone.. Boa Constrictor unleashed = ][V][ichigan victory.
Washington needs to have a good lead late. If it's tied or close with less than 10 minutes and Michigan gets the ball, they can strangle out the rest of the game with one drive. We've seen them do it multiple times this year, and against UW's run defense, its entirely possible.
I think the pass defense ratings are misleading. Of course UW pass defense is worse. They played against pass happy PAC12 offenses. The reverse is also true. Of course UM pass defense is ranked high. They played against run heavy or more balanced offenses. They have also not played against a QB or receivers of this caliber. This game is likely going to be surprising in its results.
My beloved Ducks lost to UW -- twice! (Ouch!) If you're going to lose, lose to the best; so I'd like to see UW win. That said, if the often repeated, "Defense wins championships" holds true, UM should win. UM's defense is better than the Huskies' defense. MUCH better.
As a husky fan I'm nervous after listening to these stats. Great analysis. I hope my huskies can pull off the unthinkable, but we don't matchup well against Michigan's juggernaut defense.
As a UoM fan should be a great game, if your O line is as good as advertised you should have a chance, but your Defense being as bad as advertised then Mich certainly has the edge on "Stats" but that's why we pay the game . I just hope for another great game like the semis were.
As a Michigan I’m nervous. Penix is by far the best QB we’ve faced, really haven’t faced anyone like him. Our outstanding corners have not faced a group of WR’s like Washington. Wouldn’t be surprised if Washington wins; they have been impressive. Go blue though!! Lol
@@MarkBahoura-ku9rp man please don't get my hopes up 😭 should be a great game though. And I gotta say Michigan fans are awesome. After Texas fans talked so much trash leading up to the Sugar Bowl, I didn't expect so many Michigan fans to give Washington their flowers.
Both fan bases should be a little nervous, and both teams should be too. It’s normal and healthy, unless one or both teams are arrogant. Each team can win the natty, and anyone saying one team or the other is guaranteed to win is delusional. My earliest memory of a Michigan game was Ohio State 1997, and then every game after. Been waiting years for this moment, and I’m glad they’ve finally made it here. It’s anyone’s game, and I hope it’s a good one on both sides of the ball, and I hope everyone stays healthy! They have much to look forward to far beyond this natty!
This is exactly what the Washington fans don’t understand. Michigan’s defense was specifically designed over the last 3 years to beat exactly the same kind of offense that Washington has and Michigan did it very well against CJ Stroud and a truckload of NFL receivers. 😳
