@@dipjyotimitra9840..lol stop spreading misinformation..he’s India’s executive director to the IMF which means he was appointed to the post by the Modi Government.
our education system is completely destroyed: draining the savings of middle classes...parallel fees to coaching classes ...over population..unhealthy zero knowledge based schooling...
But India is right now in the low-income category. The question should be - will India be able to move to the middle-income category first? Average monthly income in India (2022; nominal): Self-employed: Rs 11,973 Regular salaried: Rs 19,010 Casual: Rs 8,267 Distribution of employment in India (2022): Self-employed: 55.8% Regular salaried: 21.5% Casual: 22.7% Source: ILO
The Pareto principle can also be used to explain middle-income. If you cannot rank among the top 20% of the world's advanced productivity, then you cannot earn high profits from middle/low income countrys and can only work as developed countrie's sweatshopsand with low profits . The world's population is now 8 billion, which means there is only 1.6 billion(20%) room for developed(rich) population. Western countries (the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea) have 1 billion, China has 1.4 billion, and India has 1.4 billion. China + US already 1.6 billion , so that's why those country are fighting with China. China is replaceing them. India think u can done better than china if u guys are in this sitution? Politically, Using Western democracy. Inefficiency Externally, it is always want to challenging China and Pakistan. even start to challenging Canada. not stable. Internally lot of landlords, big capitalists and Muslims .Chaos, division. Economically cannot use China's cheap product/technology(ideological problem) to finish industrialization ,only can relies on Japanese, Korean and EU companies with expensive price. Service industry are actully serves the West. So my view is India only will be a middle incoming country finally,India's target is squeeze the middle income share with EU/Japan/South Korea. Or Replace US or China for final goal. So which share India want to take over and How? The Pacific Ocean(world) is big enough to contain China and the United States, But Asia(world) is small not enough to contain China and India at same time.
We will continue to artifically inflate our GDP by making more and more Vande Bharat Trains,Bullet Trains ,High Value Infrastuctre which common public does not have access to. High Value Defence Products which do not result in public good.
You don't know that over 25% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
This interview is a clear example of the intellectual depth in public intellectuals that is dying a slow death in India. Far from a balanced view point, the book will only be worse.
USA is 21 trillion right now. India is 4 trillion today. 55 trillion in 2047, what a joke. These jokers aimed at 5 trillion in 2019, it’s 2024 now 😂😂😂. Get the low hanging fruit at least, then talk about 2047. Seriously, To get a job in Modi government, you don’t need education. You need to be have some stamp from foreign, be mediocre and be loud enough to shout propaganda .
Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world- Einstein. He is making an argument on sustaining the high growth rates of 7-10% which will result in the magic of compounding which will result in GDP reaching the levels of $10s of trillions. If we were having this argument even 10-20 years back, we would similarly be astonished at prediction of India becoming a $5T economy. But it is right now- because of compounding. Thats exactly how China did it (by 8-10% compounding over 20 years). If India does not get into socialist and other traps, continue to evolve our economy, we should achieve it as well. Its not a guarantee of course, its not inevitable, but doable with the right policies and incentives.
Einstein, India targeted 5 trillion by 2023. Not 2019. And if you learn a bit of maths you'll know that compounding at high growth rates can take you to great heights over a long period of time.
He sounds like one of those regime apologists who will be blaming Nehru in 2047 when India’s “developed country” dreams are shattered - before declaring that we are developed anyways.
You seem to the person who can't accept that India can become a developed nation by 2047 or you'll redefine developed status by incorporating your own definition.
@@dipjyotimitra9840 There was a time when politicians promised India will be a developed country by 2020. So count me as cynical when I see such promises made. Our problems are structural, we relish in making Hindus and Muslims hate each other and fight over temples and mosques. History tells us, no such country succeeds. When Singapore became independent, its leaders forced Chinese and Malay and Tamil minorities to share apartment complexes - no “veg only” buildings and that crap. That’s at the heart of a nation’s drive to succeed. Read up a little. Banning beef and demolishing mosques to appease the majority doesn’t make the country DeVeLoPed. And when half of Indians are still living in favelas in 2047, remember: it was all Nehru’s fault. Happy Sunday!
Poodle of big corporations is again defending Black Farm Laws under which the Ambanis and Adanis were to be handed over the lands of Haryana, Punjab and later of all states.
Product of farm subsides infused rich farmer can't accept the fact that the farm laws allows consensual parties to deal with other parties. If someone wants to give their land to Adani, Ambani or even Tata, it's their choice!!
Only few oligarchs will become more rich and then average out their income on total population and consider that country and its people have become rich? Stupid argument. Indian is not even in Middle income. India is in lower middle income group.
Even south Korea, Japan had oligarchs who became more rich than the rest. Even US had their Rothschild. Oligarchy is part & parcel of growth. You need capital accumulation for risky investments. But govt should also tax them & keep investing on basic goods for the population.
@@dipjyotimitra9840 You raised some interesting facts but I believe you should also pay attention to the background of the rise of those oligarchs. South Korea govt created Hyundai, Samsung etc during revolution and then stable companies handed over to private sector and then those stable companies created wealth. Japanese companies were already present before WW2 and then those rose to more power after WW2. US created conditions of free market and take a look that US even destroyed Standard oil and created into many other oil companies like chevron ets. India is not in a place to gamble especially when govt also not taxing these companies. India is a very diverse country and creating false uniformity will only create problems. India is a uniformity in diversity, not a diversity in uniformity.
India shouldn't be compared to the U.S. or other developed Western countries, nor to China. A fair comparison would be with countries like Brazil. The $55 trillion figure is misleading. I'm concerned that India's exports are limited to a few agricultural products, while it relies heavily on imported technologies, making it more of a consumer rather than an innovation hub!
It will never happen. All BJP guys do is speak rubbish and then justify it with foolish reasoning. It's no wonder they couldn't complete any of their promises since 2014. They are nothing but crooks !
Hope we don't get into a lower income trap.. Our projected GDP growth rate is a fallacy. We are actually growing by 2% only if inflation is adjusted. Again, the north south divide is growing at an alarming rate. Peninsular India is growing faster than the BIMARU states at its own esteem and not because of central support.
Is he an economist or is a athlète preparing for next olympic ! Jumping from 5 trillion economy to 55 trillion in less than 20 years is an athleletic jump 😅
55 trillion sounds good. But he is expecting a nominal GDP growth of 12% for next 20 years. The problem is that India's nominal GDP growth in rupee terms (in dollar terms is even lower) in 2023-24 was 9.6%. And it fell from 14% from the year before. So where is he getting his 12% from?
You don't know that over 45% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
What this guy talking. Full of BS. In 1950s Argentina was predicted to be super power now it's basket case. He using yardstick of Japan chaina. India doesn't have any characteristics of them.
Sir, we really need to have a discussion on "NO INCOME TO SOME INCOME" as reports suggest that the last assets of every indian households, which is GOLD jewellery but not biscuits or coins are being used for taking loans. Which itself suggests that there is severe income deficiency in the middle to lower middle income group.
we dont make global quality products like german cars american cloud israeli cybersecurity no planes trains are made in lndia when it comes to the key high tech electronics software etc
When youth jobless about 50% in their earning and skill improvement phase, expect great narratives to grow great of few corporates and less on ground reality. Being positive along with on ground realities otherwise it becomes dreams rather than reality. Providing job opportunities to all itself improve economic growth of country that itself becomes both production and consumption increase indicates reality of economy
2047: 23 years away: Lets assume India's GDP doubles in every 8 years (actual will be around 10 years). So you have a chance of doubling 3 times. Hence current 5T doubles to 10T in 2032, then doubles to 20T in 2040 and then doubles to 40T in 2048. Still falls short of 15T. The guest is an economist, I think he knows better. My guess, he might have created this hype for his book to be sold. When 800 million people are getting free ration, you need a very dynamic leader in India who can create a huge manufacturing base and generate employment income for these 800 million, then India can grow at 12% a year and thereby double the GDP in every 6 years.
It's not like you have to give employment first and THEN economy will grow. Employment IS growth. GDP is calculated by 3 ways: consumption, production or income. I agree we need to give employment to these 800 millions or increase their income. And doing is equal to increasing growth.
karan. please don't invite crackpot theorists.. also you've done shabby work with not asking in detail how it'll not take 75 yrs for even $20k per capita
And this crackpot theorist is appointed by IMF as the country head. So, probably you need to ask the famed global lender of the western world they are they incompetent.
I don't know what everyone is smoking. Please take an excel spreadsheet. Take Thailand's per- capita income of approx USD 7K. Compound it by just 2.5%! India, with a current per-capita income of USD 2.9k, compounding at 7% will not catch up to Thailand even by 2050. Thailand is at the lower end of Middle Income i.e. India will remain a low-income country well after the 100th year of Independence.
Great news for India. It is possible because in Manmohan Singh 10 year term India 's economy tripled in size. If this is replicated in the coming two decades it is possible.
The speaker anti farmer not an economist. The Indian state invested huge to build industrial base but failed to create worth in manufacturing. Only traders benefit. Cheap vegetables produced by farmers not helping them by middle men. Indian state is in a Bania trap. He is a neo Jagdish Bhagwati.
@@counterpoint9260Both have their own biases. Just like you have your own. Krishna is the country head of IMF. The same institution entire west reveres. So tell me, do you respect the west.?
Jai Hind sir. The rate of productivity and stable government are the key factors in functioning the smooth economy of our nation. The middle- income trap a tenuous concept is well illustrated in your channel and can be said an eye opening aspect to the people of India and to the existing government of India.
He as an economic adviser was a big failure. Nothing he predicted had happened then & justied with evasive answers when asked rational questions. Please don't subscribe to these kind of economists. He is not sure of himself. 😅
Because he's not growing paddy that you can result in a year. India under Nehru grew at "Hindu growth rate" (Hinduphobic language by the west) & India became 1/80th the per capita GDP of US by 2000. Unless you stop reading WhatsApp, you won't understand how backward India became from 1947 to 1991.
@@sandeepbhatia1193Modi never said he'll give 15 lakh to everyone. Dare you to prove that. Otherwise, I don't think India will be a 55 T economy. But India will certainly be a rich nation. That's enough.
@@dipjyotimitra9840No doubt, India was s rich country before the British and Mughals plunder. Divide and rule and division politics brought about the downfall of these so called indian Nationalists.. You are one of such nationalist.
Of course, India’s GDP can and will reach $55T by 2047. Only issue is that much of the GDP’s rise will have been possible by way of high inflation. High inflation and middle-income trap are two sides of the same coin. So the economy will reach $55T in spite of the middle-income trap coming about. Citing past data of east Asian countries is just not appropriate. First, their work ethic is very different to ours. More importantly, the East Asian countries rode the globalization bus and were successful. We missed that bus even when it swung by India back in 1955, when Nobel economist Milton Friedman studied the Indian economy sitting in New Delhi for a whole month at the behest of the then Indian Govt. East Asia’s economic growth was primarily fueled by global trade and exports after WWII. It was a time of technological growth that made it to everyone’s home. Cars and Home appliances for cooking, air conditioning, entertainment, news, recording events for posterity, to name a few, were all things that were bought directly by consumers. Monetary expansion in those countries gradually and eventually followed the growth in economic activity to sustain it. Therefore inflation was kept in check in East Asian countries. We on the other hand have always been trying to fuel our economic growth with monetary expansion. Nothing can be further than the truth than the way in which our Govt in the last term went about spending money here and there without batting an eyelid. Didn’t this lead to high inflation? High inflation resulting from the use of monetary expansion to fuel economic growth is a science. Nobel economist Milton Friedman was awarded the Nobel prize for his work on the theory and science of monetary expansion. How much more stupid can we be? There are lots of other exceptions too to India’s economic fortunes. Our outrageously high population is a barrier to widespread uniform economic growth. The kind and amount of freebies close to 18% of our GDP is yet another barrier. Lack of people development is a gargantuan barrier too. Our level of love and respect for our own people is one more barrier yet. For whatever reason, our industries look at unorganized uneducated classes as necessary for keeping themselves profitable and, consequently, afloat par excellence. They and our governments, present and past, have always thought of our large population as assets (easily pushed labor on which to build profitable businesses). Unless we start to think of our uneducated and unorganized classes as also people who can (like us) not only get themselves educated, but also come up with innovative ideas and contribute to the nation as entrepreneurs, nothing is going to awaken the huge potential in India. It’s inane to build castles in the air without addressing the root cause of a dormant untapped potential. Which is why these advisors haven’t got the hang of economics yet. They’ve simply been throwing the math behind the economics. First it was $5T by 2024, then it was $10T by 2030, now after the 2024 elections it has been further fine tuned to $54T by 2047. Swallow their arguments and India will be drowned in massive inflation by then and an inequality the likes of which we have never seen! Mind you, I respect these advisors. But I am not convinced they’ve got the hang of economics yet. Economics is largely the study of human psychology / behavior in regard to how humans engage with one another when it comes to scarce resources. They are totally drowned in the mathematics of economics and economic growth. The proof is in the pudding. Can’t believe that the growth of 8% last year is still being bandied about as though it is a benchmark of note. In reality, that 8% was a bunch of high inflation masquerading as growth, wasn’t it? Would like these economic advisors to know that we also would like India to grow. There is not a single soul in India who doesn’t want economic growth. But that growth has to be palpable, first felt at the lowest level of society. Otherwise, playing with enormous GDP numbers and throwing them hither thither is like being in a state of pure delirium. It will happen only when the large population numbers of India turn themselves into a large market.
So this was the brain behind Modi’s farm laws under which 750 farmers died. Ask him if poverty has declined then why 5 kg ration is given to 80% of population of India.
@@srisivaraman8063 politically alingned. Lol...do you even know the current income of farmers of India ? Do you know that they are not payed insurance amount if their crops fails ? Do you know msp is given only on 2 crops out of mandated 23 crops ? Do you know that a lot of government Mandis are deleberately shut down by Modi so that farmers can get lower amount for their produce ? 15% of our GDP comes from agri sector and it employs 40% of our unorganised workforce. Don't showcase your dumbness by saying farmers protesting on दिल्ली borders for a year were politically motivated. Politically motivated are your goons from Modi government who do riots everywhere in country.
@@ageless1003Every farmer will protest as it goes against their interest. That doesn't mean it is not good for the nation. For example, if benefits given to rich industrialists are taken away, both rich & small businessmen will protest. That doesn't mean it isn't good for the country. All the revadis (subsidy) given to the people before election. Try stopping them, people will come in arms. Is that good? Haven't you seen Sri Lanka example?
Karan, please interview Washington post writer who wrote a piece on Indians official involvement in targeting and killing its citizen on its soil by using extra judicial measures and with the help of criminal gang. AS name also taken in this regard and it’s said , that Bishnoi has got his patronage and he can’t be called by any court in India for one more year , a clause activated by the AS giving protection to him , and that’s why he was moved to Gujarat from Tihar Jail in Delhi .
13 crore people in India-as per data released by WB couple fo days ago- earn less than 2 dollars ie less tha 84 rupees per day. More than 80 cr people are dependent on free ration. Rest, I leave upto common sense.I feel pity, that how such men have gine on to become economists and no wonder, why current regime has no blueprint for future.
20%+ of Americans fall on their definition of poverty level. Millions of them are homeless & depend on food grant. WhatsApp graduate like you don't knowbthe reality but accuse others of being ignorant. He's the country head of IMF, stupid. He's someone you never can be
Typical diplomat talking style of being sweet and wearing a meaningless smile saying things everything is perfect, while doing those power games in behind…can’t buy a word THIS guy says!
The first question to ask him is who is responsible for tweaking data coming out of the govt. Every bit of data seems to be doctored or hidden thanks to weknowwho
30 trillion is possible, 50 trillions seems near impossible but quick major reforms in agriculture, land, labour, tax, reducing corruption, increasing investment in education and healthcare as percentage of GDP may change the fortunes for india.
The gdp is quoted in nominal terms and gdp growth in real terms. India’s real gdp growth rate is 6-7%. Nominal is around 10-11%. In theory the currency weakens by the inflation differential so when you convert back the GDP denominated in INR to USD then one comes back to real growth rate. However, if FII and/or FDI inflows are strong then currency may stay pretty stable (as it has been for quite some time). Hence a net 10% nominal growth rate at 7% real gdp is not impossible. 10% means double every 7 years. 21 years is 8 times. So 40T is not impossible. A net 12% will take us to 55T. Very difficult if not impossible.
21:06 Nicely done Mr. Economist, taking on Mr journalist on bringing his ideological leanings into this conversation. 22:08 good to come back to your own book and not go on about some prior interview that Mr journalist held
Excellent interview. Your insight about lower currency depreciation going forward as a distinct possibility, is really helpful. While, this is leaning towards the 'best case scenario', it is not a crime to be reasonably optimistic. Very well explained with the 'rule of 72' and the impact of 'interest rate differentials'. People underestimate the power of compounding. As you have indicated, most forecasters are just extrapolating the past.
I can't believe we used to consider Thapar among top newsmen in the country for decades. His ideological leanings have clearly overtaken his professionalism and are showing in his interviewing skills. The guy was called to speak on his book but Karan focused only 1 chapter out of 27. Further kept interrupting his guest from answering whenever he thought KVS was going against what he wanted to hear and didn't even discuss other aspects of the book. What a fall!! And to those mocking KVSin the comments, he was part of the team which went against global norm of just printing notes and giving handouts during the pandemic which caused the super inflation in the west. And that despite the gyaanis in India pressuring the govt to spend like Western nations when Covid was a supply side shock and not demand side shock. They saved us from what could have been Pakistan or Turkey levels of inflation.
His profile shows he had received a (PhD) in financial economics from University of Chicago Booth School of Business. You are saying Booth School produces only useless economics experts. Congrats to you brother.
This government has relentlessly been managing inflation and wants to keep it at 4%. Assuming a average inflation rate of 4%, he is talking of 8.5% real GDP growth over the next 23 years. This has not happened anywhere in the world and it's not possible with the legal system we have. A lot of reforms are needed to expect 8.5% growth for consistently 10 years. In my view expecting an average growth rate of 5.5% per annum for 23 years as the baseline is realistic
Well, given the uniformly tardy rate of growth currently being registered by the cowbelt BIMARU states allied with Punjab and W Bengal and with no indication of any improvement in the near or distant future, which is bound to hold back severely the overall economic growth of the entire country, the forecast by this engineer-turned-economist that India can become an economic superpower with a 55 trillion dollar GDP in 2047 is at best a delusional dream. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
I am surprised he was let on the show. Good for Karan to listen to a contrary point of view. I generally come here for my daily dose of doom and gloom. I believed it was inconceivable for an economist on this channel to make a valid point on the farm subsidies. I feel the main area India is not paying enough attention to is a conspicuous decline in FDIs.
His profile shows he had received a (PhD) in financial economics from University of Chicago Booth School of Business. You are saying Booth School produces only useless economics experts. Congrats to you brother.
