I enjoy watching Joseph's content and really appreciate the transparency. 2:40 perfectly explains why a vast majority of people should not actively invest. Joseph is an intelligent investor who spends thousands of hours a year researching companies and investing wisely, yet he still underperforms the average joe who just buys SPY or VOO. I believe Joseph will eventually beat the market, but those of us without the time/knowledge are better served riding it out in passive index funds!
Can you compare your storyfund against the QQQ? I think that would be a more accurate representation than SPY since you’re essentially in all tech stocks.
QQQ had done worse than SPY since starting this portfolio. Changing the benchmark now, to one that's done worse, would look like i'm trying to move the goalposts in order to make myself look better. That's the comments I would receive if I did that currently.
You talk often about stock-based compensation. Some of these tech companies also have large amortization items added to their cashflows (for Salesforce in FY23, out of 7.1b in OCF, 3.3b was SBC and 3.8b were amortization expenses). I was asking myself why these folks had so much to amortize, and then learned about capitalized software costs, "costs such as programmer compensation, software testing and other direct and indirect overhead costs that are capitalized on a company’s balance sheet instead of being expensed as incurred". So if I am understanding this correctly, dilution is not the only problem: there is a reason why the company shows no profits. It doesn't seem like they have any.
I recently made more purchases. Saving money for a market downturn is likewise a bad idea. There are numerous ways to look at recessions and depressions, we cannot always expect to make large returns, and taking chances is better than doing nothing. The bottom line is that you will achieve remarkable results by diversifying your portfolio and making wise decisions. My portfolio's raw earnings rose by $608k in just 5 months.
Despite my confidence in your advice, my recent stock purchases, and the fact that I am an AMC shareholder, I haven't been able to accumulate anything. I had already been in the hole for too long prior to the downturn. What's the investing procedure?
with the help of my consultant Camille Anne Hector, I've been investing for a while, and I couldn't be happier. Her company offers the broadest financial guidance currently accessible, has given me the best ROI while safeguarding my capital. It never squanders my money on dangerous speculation or poor risk-management techniques.
That is amazing! Since my portfolio has greatly deteriorated, I could really use this advisor's expertise. If you could suggest how to get her attention, I would be grateful.
Find her online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations.
Long-term investors know that the market and economy will recover eventually, and are well positioned for the rebound. Personally still going hard on this crazy market and I'm doing just fine.
He has commented on this previously that his aim is to beat SP500. So while the composition is very different it is his benchmark to beat. You could get better or worse returns with qqq but that is not his benchmark. I hope I remember his comment correctly.
SPY is the go-to benchmark of every investor and every hedge fund, every money-manager. It's considered nearly impossible to beat by EMH believers. I think SPY is a difficult benchmark to beat in and of itself and I'll be very happy if I accomplish that. There's a lot more "similar" etf's to my portfolio. WCLD, cloud computing, IGV, tech software, QQQ nasdaq 100, etc. None of them however are really all that similar. I have a huge amount of money in 7 companies, 40% of which is still in Amazon. This doesn't resemble any index.
Hi Joseph great video. Had a few questions I am curious about: 1. Who is “we?” You keep saying we when you reference your performance in the story fund vs the SP500 2. Why do you rarely ever add to the story fund? 3. Why do you use forward PE rather than trailing PE? I seldom see this done in other financial articles, RU-vid channels, etc. Most tend to use trailing Thank you!
thanks for sharing! i think you should compare this portfolio with QQQ, not SPY - as it is a heavy tech portfolio! ;) and let the other big portfolio comparison to SPY...
Hi Carson I just wanted to thank you for all the wonderful information that you’ve shared. I saw a stock that is making steady gains and seems to be promising but I would like to know your thoughts and if you can analyze companies like this. Thank you
Hey Joe I love your pick I have big holding in ba lost over 10 k last 2 days I thinking of sold out my and buy amazon and goog any feedback appreciated
How do you have two M1 finance individual accounts? I have a passive income portfolio and a Roth IRA, and I went to create a second individual account, but it said they only support one individual account per person.
Well Microsoft is basically everbodies favorite company, of course its expensive. 1. Pays some dividend. 2. It grows. 3. Massive moat. 4. It does AI and Gaming. 5. Its a B2B and a B2C business. I regret not buying more last fall :(
In my opinion Netflix has gone the wrong route, people flocked towards it as an alternative for tv and to get away from the ads. I would also say that most shared users won’t pay for an account as the reason people did this is because they shared accounts from multiple streamers such as Disney espn and Netflix. People shared for cost savings. Netflix and the rest have forgotten this fact I think. Once they start breaching people’s price point of breaking they will potential lose a lot of users
JC on Friday is a great way to end the week. Love these deeper portfolio updates where we take a critical temperature check and reassess or reaffirm our thoughts. Keep the content going!
@Joseph, I am seriously curious, why dont you shift some money from the passiv income portfolio to the tech portfolio? How did you come up with around 150k vs. 350k from the beginning? Why not shifting?
I got Microsoft around $255, and that's what I'd need in order to add to my position. Great stock, amazing future ahead of it, growing dividend, it's just ran up so much here lately. Awesome stuff as always, love seeing a new Joseph upload!
At about 4 min, you discuss your investing philosophy for the Story Fund. It sounds very much like your investing philosophy for the Passive Income Fund. Would you explain what the differences are? Why might a company appear in one fund and not the other? When do you include a company in both funds? Why those companies and not others? Thanks.
YOU WILL beat the S&P with these picks over the long term. These companies are massive compounders and have their hands wrapped into the world we live in.
I have recently started reading about stocks and books like the intelligent investor etc. I have a rather basic question for a company like Amazon: since they do not offer any dividend (like a growth stock) then there is no compounding value gained but you bet that the price would go significantly higher than having an opportunity cost of investing to an income stock like coca-cola? As it does depend on the intrinsic value, how do you calculate amazon value to estimate if they are undervalued? Thaanks for the video, amazing information mate!
I like the way you disclose your positions and show us how you have fared in your journey as an investor. I see most of the finance gurus talk about seemingly intelligent ideas without ever showing the proof if all their wisdom and intelligence have actually placed them in a good spot at all. Nobody is perfect and we do mistakes in our investment journey. Nobody has a portfolio, at least in the short to medium term where they are not a bit disappointed with some of the assets they are holding on to. But I see tons of finance influencers who talk like they have figured out every single detail. Your channel is honest and I can connect a lot more with someone who is not afraid to concede that some of his assets may be under-performing at the moment. All the best, Joseph. I am an ardent follower.
Hi Joseph! Is it maybe an idea to also incorporate a graph of operating cash flow (OCF) and OCF per share in Qualtim? I think it's at least a good addition besides all other factors already available. Just an idea, keep up the great work!
About CRM - Check last results from investor relations. Those numbers are stupid. Check gaps between GAAP and non GAAP numbers and go deep into why there is such a big Gap. If you can trully value a company, you will see it is one big scam - whole results. Numbers are just polished to look good :) I trully recomend you to do that, big lesson :) Let me know then
I have a similar portfolio as yours. Main difference in terms of holdings are MSFT and AAPL (like you, I also think they are currently overvalued, so hope for market crash to load up). Only difference is I started my portfolio in 2022, hence, up 10% (outperforming the S&P). Thanks for giving me "somewhat" of a validation that I'm on the right track to early retirement and quitting my disgusting day job. Cheers!
Great video. Wondering if you can elaborate on MSFT. Last time we spoke about this you had a thesis that it was extremely under valued and could double. I feel like we completely changed pace on this. No issue here, would just love to get into the rational of the valuation.
My thoughts on Microsoft haven't changed, but the relative value of Microsoft vs everything else has. You can't look at individual stocks in isolation, they need to have analysis done relative to other opportunities. Microsoft stock price and valuation has held up incredibly well while other companies have fallen dramatically in price.
Apple, Google, Netflix are best examples of companies that grow organically and exponentially , without having to make huge acquisitions with debts. Company like Disney, CVS, AT&T which grew by making huge acquisitions, just show that they were unable to grow organically anymore.
I don’t know about google. I think they will be fine but this AI thing is just starting. I’ll stick to Amazon. Ai can’t deliver packages. …or can they?😅
Just a thought but where most of your holdings make up a lot of the heavily weighted companies of the s&p 500 arent you better off just buying that? A lot less downside although fair enough there is less upside potential. If the portfolio was made up of a lot more smaller companies that werent in the index it would make more sense not buying
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours can you explain, why you are doing that? I mean, you could strengthen your tech portfolio by shifting some money. I would be interested to know what portfolio you would have If you had only 100k to invest.
PE is an estimate of the next 12 months of earnings, which is also heavily impacted by stuff like the rivian stake. Buffett doesn’t focus on PE of complex companies for this reason. At no point on the entire history of Amazon would buying the stock based on next years earnings been a good way to do analysis on it. What makes you think this form of analysis works now?
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Of course Joseph, you are right. But I think it is a parameter worth looking at, especially when AWS revenue growth is slowing (reported a year-over-year decline in operating income).
@@andreaisonline Right, I understand your point. Amazon needs to generate meaningful cash flows over the next 5 years otherwise it will be a very bad investment. When I look at it now I think the main drivers of value are threefold: Amazon Prime Membership, Advertising, AWS. While yes, AWS is slowing, it's still a phenomenal business. The advertising business is also top-notch, I believe better than Google/Meta's because it's more targeted. Amazon Prime also offers tremendous power and I still believe it has pricing power and low churn. Based on those lines of business I believe amazon should be able to do 60-70b in free cash flow by end of 2025. If They're able to do that, the current yield on that FCF would be about 7% FCF yield. I think Amazon will more than likely trade at a 3.5% FCF yield, So I think there's obviously meaningful upside (around double) if that happens. If that doesn't work out and amazon can't get costs under control and keeps diluting while having negative FCF obviously the investment will be a loser.
Of all the things we can and should get upset at corporations over, it cracks me up how losing access to an entertainment service received for free for years is what sends people over the edge.
Would love to hear an update on your opinion on Meta since it seems to fit a lot of your check boxes and has made some positive maneuvers lately. Great video btw!
Nice video :) This is why I invest majority of my funds in VGT, even though I hold, AMZN, GOOG and NVDA in growth portfolio. AAPL and MSFT is in dividend portfolio.
Thank you for honest information without clickbait. I unmet I mean I subscribed to a few other RU-vid accounts that mainly use clickbait and are mainly focused on making money by manipulating viewers to watch videos instead of giving valuable info without me having to watch 3 hours of their videos per day!! 🤮 🤮
$AMZN P/E 130 $NFLX PE 37 $GOOG PE 22 $MSFT PE 32 $ADBE PE 38 $CRM PE 957 $AAPL PE 28 PE OF 25 or below is ok, but anything above that your are overpaying UNLESS you have a lot of cash like Warren Buffet. This guy is talking about intrinsic value, but does he even know how to find the proper intrinsic value for these companies 🤨🤨
Hey Viral, I will do a deep dive into my other portfolio as well. To answer your question, Qualtrim.com is included as part of the Patreon membership at no additional cost. So basically you can join Patreon here: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson Then once you have a patreon account, you can create a qualtrim account and it will be activated. We have some big updates and improvements coming to Qualtrim as well over the next month, I'm excited release more details soon.
I'm 35 so I got a long time in the market and I'm looking to be investing for decades. 2022 was down, but there will be 2023 like we are seeing is up, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030... Long term is the game to play. Even 5 years is a short time horizon to expect specific results.
It’s my 3rd year in stock market. My thinking about money changed a lot throughout this time period after experience, mistakes and losses for sure. Nowadays I’m buying the companies with wide moat and healthy balance sheet and 10-15% are the one which has lot of growth opportunity if they survive. So, in short I’m not checking or tracking my portfolio all day and have better sleep. Work on your active income and invest some part of your earnings that you don’t need at least for next 10 years. Good luck with your investments. Hope for the best but be ready for the worst. #StayStrong
Thanks! I was pro Amazon and one of its biggest fans. Not anymore unfortunately. The company is not a shareholder friendly. Very thin profit margins. Also, why Diluting shares if “they can. Make money”. This comes with a not clear where the research and development money goes. My personal understanding from their report that is not clear to me as if it’s the cost of AWS….etc So no actual profits. I’m addition to all that, we have the stock based compensation issue. I appreciate that this company can become a shareholders friendly. Even with $30 cash flow. This is still so expensive. Cash flow is spent to whatever it is spent. This means that the company is not making cash flow. The only hope for this company is increase margins in the cost of the revenue. But why taking all this risk
@@AnytimeIncome not accurate. Most content creators do not buy individual stocks, talk about their portfolio or investments. Some of the biggest channels (like Graham Stephan) only buy spy. And some of my most popular videos have nothing to do about my portfolio (like the Silicon Valley bank video with over 100k views) I could easily make the channel successful while never showing my personal investments. That’s what most content creators do. On a side note - I was buying Individual stocks long before I started RU-vid. I've owned Apple since 2017 and uploaded my first RU-vid video in 2019.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours do you think you are doing people a good service by promoting and justifying these companies? When in fact, most people should just buy spy?
Great overview. But wasn't Disney in this portfolio recently? And I remember you being positive on the new management doing the right things and activist investor Nelson Peltz agreeing with it..
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours the question wasn't about Apple buying Disney, the question is was Disney in this portfolio some time ago and you sold it for some reason?
@@tattooedinvestor5015 Sure, and just to be clear. I still like Disney as a company, I do think it's great. I decided to just put capital into companies I think have less transitions going on (Disney linear TV business dying, sports transition, streaming, new ceo, etc). I'm putting more capital into companies like VICI, that are super boring and straight forward.
Pretty sure Apple has bought other companies. Unless the documentary about the iPhone is false, they bought the company that had the tech for the multi touch screen every phone has today.
Pretty sure Joseph met large purchases, Disney would be a massive purchase. Apple has definitely bought up much smaller companies. It's fairly common for big companies to buy up small ones with key technologies/patents they want to integrate into their product.
