Myanmar’s Civil War Has Entered the Endgame. Here’s What You Need to Know. 

What most depressing part of this conflict is that when the junta is eventually defeated, its highly likely that the resistance groups will start fighting amongst themselves over the power gap.

As someone who has been watching the news reports tick in since the beginning of the coup, the lack of attention about this conflict in major news organisations is genuinely ridiculous. The lives of an entire country have been uprooted for the past couple years, and barely anyone has noticed. I personally would love an episode covering the history of the conflict, and the parties involved just so that more people can get an idea about what is going on over there.

As a Burmese citizen, I am pretty sure that the majority, i mean like three-fourths of the population see the resistance forces as their saviors. And PDFs(NUG arm wing) and EROs(3BHA and ethnic forces) already have some agreements over how they will manage the government post-revolution. The main thing that unite these forces are due to the fact that they have the same enemy and they believed that other things can be sorted out with political negotiations after all these are done.

I lived/worked in Myanmar for 9 years and left at the start of COVID. It's a quagmire, but the junta is evil and needs to go. The "normal" people of the country are some of nicest I've ever met....I hope the best and pray for them.

I'm glad Myanmar is getting media attention again. I'm sorry to hear what's going on in Myanmar. I visited Burma a few years ago as a tourist. It's a beautiful country with wonderful, welcoming people. My heart and prayers go out to Myanmar and her people. ☮✌

For a while the rebels were using the FGC-9, a 3D printed firearm.

Far cry 7 just wrote itself

There’s a slight error at 9:32. Simon states that “The Karen National Liberation Army and the Karenni control much of the border with *China.”* That area is actually where Myanmar’s border with Thailand is.

Thank you guys for covering this so consistently. My parents worked for NGOs in Thailand for years assisting refugees from Myanmar (Burma’s) civil wars and ethnic cleansing campaigns. It’s been a chronically underreported part of the world in Western media and I’m glad Warographics and Simon takes the time to cover it. Thank you!

I remember when people said the Syrian Civil War had reached its "Endgame" in late 2012, when it looked as though the FSA offensive in the eastern suburbs of Damascus might result in either Damascus being besieged by the FSA, or fear of such a siege triggering a palace-coup to replace Assad with a military junta which would try to negotiate with the rebels. There were very similar predictions in 2021 that the TPLF would march on Addis Ababa and that negotiations would soon begin between the TPLF, Government remnants, and various ethnic paramilitaries, to craft a new constitution for Ethiopia. And now, in 2024, it looks as if the military dictatorship is on the verge of collapse. But the closer the Tatmindaw is to collapse, the more likely it is that some rebel groups would attack their former allies, hoping to get a larger share of power after the Tatmindaw is defeated, or that a neighboring country might take steps to prop up the regime for fear that Myanmar could fall under the influence of geopolitical rivals, and/or become an even bigger hotspot for drug trafficking and small outbreaks of cross-border violence. Saying that any war has entered its 'endgame', especially a war where a massively ideologically, religiously, linguistically, and ethnically divided rebel coalition is seeking to overthrow an incumbent government, is a great way to all but guarantee that whatever other statements you make about that war will age VERY poorly.

As a Burmese national, it hurts to see what my country is going through and this channel did really well in explaining the situation. Best case scenario is honestly a federal government “imitating the USA” according to the NUG but that is highly unlikely as both the rebels and NUG are unstable amongst themselves and is highly inexperienced to form a successful federal government and rebuild a broken and divided nation. Obviously, the worst case scenario is Myanmar ending up like Yugoslavia. Economically as well, both the real GDP and PPP are at an all time low with uncontrollable inflation and downward spiral of the country’s currency. Best we can do is pray for the best and hope for the worst.

Will it ever be "over"? The rebels are winning, yes, but the rebel army itself is splintered and divided among tribal and ethnic lines 🤷🏻‍♀️ And they've been fighting among themselves in the past. So, the Military Junta loosing, might not "end" the civil war

As a burmese citizen I am so happy that people are finally recognising our hardship

As a Myanmar citizen, all i have to say about these situation is "everyting is fucked and we're doomed."

As a fan of your channel from Myanmar, I am very thankful that you made this video. Among the 3 plans you suggest, plan C (China intervention) is very possible if the rebels managed to capture Mandalay. But most likely for rescueing their citizens just like Yemen Civil War. Plan B(internal cour) almost happened days before Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visit to Nay Pyi Taw. People are speculating that it failed. Plan A is surprisingly the hardest among the 3 plans currently. Because revolt by the people is impossible when you don't have enough weapons for Urban warfare. Warsaw uprising is a perfect example.

As a citizen from Myanmar, thank you for covering and paying attention to Myanmar conflict. Things are being hopefully and dark lately. We( the rebels/ freedom fighters) are wining a lot but with a lot of casualties and civilians dead cuz of the shelling and bombing day and night. This might be the final war to the true democracy in Myanmar and we need all the help we can get. Again, thank you for covering and paying attention to Myanmar.

I hope the Junta comes to regret its actions and Myanmar can restore the government. Footage of the coup unfolding out in the middle of that dance exercise teacher's video was shocking to see. Such a normal day and then suddenly boom, the military dictatorship is back in your life.

I remember when this resistance got seriously underway, I was seeing stuff all over Twitter. I’m sure the leaders of the rebel forces aren’t angels, but these leaders couldn’t accomplish anything without the people being behind them, as the junta is rapidly learning. So I’m happy to see the people of Myanmar taking their nation back; whatever other issues arise from the new leadership, can be handled after the junta is gone. With any luck, the people will have learned that no government is more powerful than its united people, so I believe that they can take care of their nation.

We do need a depper dive into the Myanmar conflict. Hope you can make a video on it.

USD exchange rate before coup 2021 was around 1250 kyats for 1 dollar ( myanmar currency ) . Now it's around 8000 or more. Just so u can see how well the country is doing .

Myanmar’s conflict has roots going back to 1948 when the country gained independence from Britain. Since then, multiple insurgencies have sprung up, making this one of the world’s longest-running civil wars.

I for one, would absolutely watch a deep dive into the conflict , especially the part about the 3D printed arms the rebels have been using

I was really waiting for this one after recent news updates. Thank you, Warographics crew.

Myanmar is a wonderful place and people.Its very sad that all this is going on,they were doing brilliantly.Lets hope that peace and unity comes soon.Vive la Résistance !

My first introduction to this conflict admittedly was Top Gear, so yes, please do an entire video on the history of this conflict.

1:25 - Chapter 1 - State of the conflict 10:35 - Chapter 2 - Cracking the cities 21:30 - Chapter 3 - Uncertain aims, uncertain future

Yes! Do a history of this war! Americans need to understand that in Civil War there is no good guys or bad guys, just suffering.

I hope all of the people of Myanmar will be free and peaceful one day.

You may know it as Myanmar, but it will always be Burma to me....

It's never a clear cut good guy vs bad guy thing. That only happens in movies.

Greetings from Aotearoa 🇳🇿Yes! Please do a deep dive on the history of the conflict in Myanmar! Also have to say I’m a massive fan of all your channels! Keep up the great work! 🤘😎🤘

I have a friend from Myanmar/Burma. He moved when he was a teen and all he remembered was constant people coming and going from his city to fight. He eventually moved to the US and has some interesting stories. I'd love to hear more about TBHA and Myanmar because he cannot speak very good english.

I lived/taught in Myanmar in 2011. Such a beautiful, but mistreated place and people. They could rise to greatness, should the world ever care to assist the millions trapped between bad and evil. My heart is with the friends I made along the way, there’s literally nothing the people are able to do except watch and wait for this to stabilize while they continue to suffer. Ugh 😢👎🏼❤️

Nice to see you covering, it’s very important yet so underrepresented. Thanks from a latino who appreciates Myanmar ✌️

Shortly before Pearl harbor, a civilian organization called the Civil Air Patrol was signed into existence by the Congress, allowing civilians to participate in the national defense and especially with shoreline reconnaissance. During the events of WWII, the Civil Air Patrol proved to be critical to the defense of the sprawling US shoreline, locating and even bombing several U-boats. Their efforts would go on to lead directly to the capture of the first enigma machine, a major turning point for the allies. The organization is still around today, having transitioned to a primarily youth organization in the 50's (I think, not 100% on that one but you gotta pay your writers to do something, right?). Their primary functions now include land based search and rescue across the Continental US, and some work in Canada and Mexico as well. They assist and often lead disaster relief efforts, including during 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. They are America's unsung heros, truly. During the grounding of all flights in US airspace after the attacks of 9/11, CAP was the only non-military organization allowed to fly, and nearly every photo of 9/11 from the air was taken by a CAP pilot. It is an incredible organization and would be a great fit for most of your channels, but especially Today I Found Out. No one knows about them but everyone has been impacted by their efforts. Feel free to PM if you have questions, I was part of the organization for nearly 10 years and was quite high in the organization. It's a military-esque organization similar to ROTC, but actually MORE affiliated with the military, and has been credited with saving civilian aviation during WWII, when many nations were banning it, we encouraged it and integrated it. When the government wouldn't give them permission to drop bombs, a pilot dropped flour sacks on the white house, showing that not only could they be accurate, but also exposing a HUGE gap in aerial coverage and protection for the capital. I would LOVE to see you do a report on this

Sorry to break you in Warographics, as a native citizen of Myanmar, who knows in the ongoing civil war inside out of the nation, the game has just started - a long trail to end in fact.

A longer deepdive video into the conflict would be interesting!

I remember when a swedish svt "journalist" was reporting from his 5 star hotel in central Bangkok about the fighting in Yangon..over 370 miles(600km) away.and he was "hearing" and seeing" the protests on the streets in Yangon .. Thats the news coverage of Myanmar in a nutshell.

I'm always curious why some conflicts get so much media attention and some don't even get a passing mention. Israel Palestine has been talked about EVERY single day for the past 11 months. Yet not a mention of Myanmar. Ukraine Russia is consistently reported, yet no Myanmar again. Who decides what to report? How is that decided?

Why yes, Simon, I would like a deep dive into this war/conflict Your analysis are always very well written.

As of this time: 1) Rakhine State: Arakan Army gets almost all of Rakhine, except Sittwe, Taungup, Ann, parts of Maungdaw and Gwa, the southernmost town. They're clashing not only with Junta, but also several Rohingya rebel groups that either aligned with the Junta or defending themselves against both sides. There are also like allied to SAC like the ALA that hated Arakan Army that much. ARSA and RSO, the leading Rohingya rebel groups fight on all sides. 2) Kachin State: Kachin Independence Army getting swathes of land, closing in on Myitkyina, Bhamo and other major Kachin State cities. Facing them were the Junta. There are also minor rebel groups that aligned with both sides. NDA-K was on the government, presence of PDF, the armed wing of the NUG was insured assistance for both sides. There's also Indian insurgents hiding in the forests and mountain near the border. 3) Chin State: Chin Defence Force had 2 sides now: Chin National Army, and Chin Brotherhood Alliance. They're facing both the Junta, the ZRA, and sometimes infighting among themselves. But they're effectively taken over the state, leaving only pockets of Junta positions in urban areas. 4) Karenni State: the 4K Alliance, made up of KNLA, KNDF, KA, and PDFs who made up of Karennis and a Karen rebel group still encircling on Loikaw. Other urban areas are in encirclement. 5) Kayah and Mon States: The Karen rebel groups made up of KNU are still fighting not only the Junta, but also Karen rebel groups that aligned with them. Several Mon rebel groups are also fighting the Junta. Despite setbacks in capturing Myawaddy and other urban areas, Karen rebels are in control of the areas around them. Mon rebels are setting up roadblocks and ambushes along the highway to the southernmost town of Myanmar. With PDF support, the rebel groups had a foothold and same ideas. 6) Dry States: PDF and other Bamar rebel groups are doing guerrilla ops against the Junta, with drone strikes on the Junta air bases are common and a strike on the SAC leadership's houses were boosting morale. The rebel groups are now planning to besiege many areas, like Mandalay for example. 7) Shan State: Northern Shan State borders and urban areas was solidly on Three Brotherhood Alliance hands now, besides Muse. The rebels are going south, but hampered not only by Junta, but also Shan State Army - North, which had a deal with the Junta to not spread the rebellion southward, but also maintain their positions. Clashes with rebel groups and SSPP were now issolated. TNLA got their share of urban areas, and now assisting the PDF in capturing areas near Mandalay and Madaya. MNDAA are now pushing with TNLA, despite SSPP resistance. Wa State, despite being neutral in this conflict, took over some areas as buffer zones against both sides. Southern Shan State was also chaotic. With two Pa-O rebel groups fighting on different sides, PNLA on the resistance, PNA on the Junta. RCSS was also neutral, but it was in danger of Wa State rebels taking their positions in the border. The two Shan State rebel groups SSPP and RCSS had an uneasy truce. The Karenni rebels also assisted PNLA to push Junta out of the area.

Living and working in bangkok ive seen a real influx of Myanmar refugees here since start . But many are now going back so some areas are probably getting safer

I want to share some insights as someone born, raised, and still living in Myanmar. Since 1962, Myanmar has experienced multiple coups, resulting in continuous military control. From 1962 to 2015, the country went through various political systems, all dominated by military dictators. Since 1988, the military has sought to maintain its power, focusing on sustaining its own needs-such as food, energy, and military-owned businesses that operate tax-free-despite the suffering of the people. The military ensured its survival by imposing a constitution in 2008 that permanently reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for military personnel. Behind Myanmar’s political turmoil, countries like Russia, China, India, and some Western nations have tried to exert influence. In 2024, the situation remains bleak, with the junta attempting to bring in Russian military forces, both state and private, under the guise of counter-terrorism. If Myanmar were to become democratic, it could significantly benefit the world economy due to its strategic geopolitical location and potential contributions. Supporting the People’s Defense Force could help achieve this transformation.

Please, would love a deep dive into the history of this conflict. Thanks to your channel I've been following the war very closely, whenever I talk to anyone about it they have no idea it's even happening. That being said, of the people aware of the current conflict, I doubt many have in-depth knowledge as to what led up to it. An in-depth vid would be super appreciated!

I would Love seeing more on the Myanmar conflict. It is such an under reported conflict

They were in a civil war?? Wtf, we are so focused on fighting the dictatorship in Bangladesh that we didn't even realise what was happening there

I would absolutely enjoy a deep dive into the entire Myanmar conflict and I think it would be good even just as documentation for posterity.

I know this is a serious world event, but every time i hear simon say Arakin Army, i can't help but think of Dune

I visited when we still called it Burma-(1982 & 84) ...I wish them peace & prosperity.

21:48 what the rebels need to do is consolidate the areas they control and establish a untied provisional government

Thank you for sparing me another acronym early on in the video. My tiny, smooth, pea-sized brain couldnt follow otherwise.

As soon as the regime falls the alliance will shatter… mark my words

Thank you for covering this, Simon. This crisis has gone mostly ignored by major mainstream media.

Please do a deeper dive and it would be really nice to get an in-depth dive from you. Thank you.

I feel like with the conflict drawing to a potential close and the future of Myanmar likely to be determined over eyes next year or so, understanding the history of the nation and conflict could be invaluable in understanding where the nation will go in the future as well as what sort of issues we can expect to rise from it. I’d love to watch a video of the history if you’re willing to make it.

I would like to hear more about this. A dedicated video about it perhaps.

Would really appreciate a deeper dive on the topic! Thanks for the excellent videos as always ❤

Can I please request that you are able to add captions to your videos? I’m a native English speaker but find you speak way too fast to really digest your content… I can’t imagine how it’ll sound to someone who isn’t as proficient in English! Otherwise… please keep up the excellent work!

Yes please do a episode of a deep dive into the history of Myanmar I feel like they don’t talk enough about it

Would love a deeper dive on the Myanmar conflict. I've been doing research on it for several years now and working with a number of NGOs there - it's a significantly more important situation for global stability than most people realize. Really glad you guys made a video on this; hope to see more!

I would like a deep dive into this conflict please.

I visited and lived in Myanmar in 2015 during the election of Aung San Suu Kyi. My time in Myanmar has been the most influential point of my life. The Myanmar people define the spirit of rebellion and freedom seeking, using countless covert ways to go under the radar of the horrific 60 so years of dictator rule. My friends and people that I consider family are fighting now for the rebels. Many of whom months before the forced junta conscription were working ten hour days and taking courses at night to do whatever possible to help their families in lieu of the economic downturn; many were dreaming of working abroad and building towards something beyond hardship. Once the forced conscription began, I saw these dreams fade for a larger one: a free Myanmar. My friends, and the youth and all those fighting are so brave. I pray and wish for a free Myanmar as soon as possible and as peacefully as possible. There are so many gifts Myanmar can offer the world and look forward to the day we see a Myanmar that is free, that reflects the wishes of the people of Myanmar. Be blessed and protected friends. The people of MYANMAR deserve their FREEDOM and SOVEREIGNTY NOW 🙏 ☮️ 🙏

9:33 KNU and KNDF actually controll the border with Thailand,not China.

Left to fight amongst themselves, Myanmar's many factions and indigenous groups will fragment into smaller autonomous states, as happened to the former Czech Republic. However, since all of this is in China's sphere of influence, Pooh Bear Xi likely has other plans, which Bangladesh and India still are not powerful enough to stop from happening.

I want a longer deep dive into the Myanmar conflict

I always find it interesting that no western observer has any optimism in revolutions that aren't of their own. They will glorify their moments when they became democracies, often through periods of distress and distability or even war, but the moment someone else does it its always doomed to fail and we whine about how the better alternative was a dictatorship(That was totally not in our pocket in some way).

You cannot produce electricity or grow enough food in the city strongholds. The rebels just need to cut electricity from the sources and food from the farms to the cities.

Thank you for continuing to cover the civil wars and conflicts that are happening around the world that most news and journalists aren't covering!!@! 🙏🙏🙏🙌🙌🙌

I wonder how many students will build encampmemts for this

I actually have a lot of optimism regarding the rebel’s ability to transition Myanmar to peace. Because from the interviews I have seen, the ethnic rebels don’t harbor delusions of independence, but just want autonomy. And I don’t think the Burmese in the center of the country have a negative authoritarian attitude to the ethnic minorities they share the country with. Hence why the junta is failing, since the Burmese themselves don’t see a point in maintaining the rigid and authoritarian centralised state.

Please give us a bigger video on this conflict

I work with many folks who fled the chaos. They're wonderful people with big hearts. They deserve to be free in their homelands

9:33 Think that suppose to be Thailand and not China

I am one of the minorities in Myanmar and trust me, even if this war end, there will be more wars to fight for. We, the minority, want our own nation. Me and my friends always say that but when we say that, the majority who are the Burmese peopel seems reluctant or annoyed. But we are saying the truth when I say we've been tortured, looted, murdered, and raped for decades now. I want to have my own nation in which I would be able to see my people being able to live in peace with our own business, language, and our own education system. When I say all the minority groups were forcibly Burmanised, the majority don't want to hear it because it sounds sour. I became more tough and more realistic since the coup started. My father said the experience of staying alive under a dictator is a priceless life lesson. I guess he is partly right because I am no longer a spoiled brat for I have become an utterly broken person.

Nah, this is the end game of the first chapter of this civil war… the problem is that Three Brotherhood Alliance. After the Junta gets the boot next is a huge power vacuum, ethnic tensions and just pure power trip. The saddest thing is that it’s a never ending cycle

Last time I arrived this early, my wife was pissed...

Myanmar took a look at far cry 4 and went “hmm…”

Every time my FB friends talk about the bad things that are happening in Ukraine or Palestine. I always reply with "what about Myanmar or the Uyghur in china?". They don't talk about it because it's "not the hot topic" to talk about.

I'd love a series that does comprehensive, 1-2 hour long deep dives on modern conflicts and events

dead ass, I saw this just dropped, clicked on it so I could pause it and put on a cup of tea, and then thought, "yup, I'm gonna need to roll one for this one, xl"

well..someone may know me..i am the gen Z who fighting aginst junta force in myanmar..in yangon the situation is preety tight..the military is roaming around of people house..we cant get internet and electricity most of the time...i dont know what is happening exactly to them..but i am sure that they are starting to scare..but still they are cruel animals..like a dying wolf..also we are really tired now..i am just 19 and we've been fighting for 4 years just to get back our life and dreams..really men..i dont want nothing..just a normal life with the girl i love..i really want live peacefully after this..but as u see our life are very unsure right now..i want to protect the people..i still have to do my best for all of them and for the country until the war end..i erally really cant let this happens again in my future generation..we youth will fight this war to end all wars from my country..also thanks for your video..i am glad the world is still remembering us :'>

Funny how everyone forgets Myanmar.

I was first on the Thai Burma border in 1983. Last there in 2001. I spent considerable time with the Karen National Liberation Army. Met and talked with many leaders of the KNLA and other factions. Went on a few operations with the guerrilla. Been shot at, shelled on, and bombed by the Burmese Air Force. In short, my interest was deep. I have zero hope for a lasting peace in Burma. So many lovely people there are at the mercy of the evil and the fanatic. So many atrocities and so much hatred. It is a heartbreaking patch of earth.

I would love a deep dive into Myanmars civil war! My family is from Thailand, right next door so I’d love to be informed for them. Thank you 🙏

The fact is once you have control of the entire countryside, you can off all the food to the cities and just wait for the inevitable collapse. The only thing that the rebels really have to worry about capturing after taking over the countryside would be the ports

What do Myanmar, Liberia, and the USA have in common? No it isn't just that they're on fire again each time you look, it's the imperial measuring system.

I think a deep dive into the conflict is what we're here for

Karen N.L.A. , why not .

Thank you for covering Myanmar. Regarding Tatmadaw soldiers, defections play a significant role in the conflict. Some soldiers defect directly to EOAs, while others defect on their own. Many of them have actively participated in the revolution. There are two channels I’d like to highlight, though I cannot provide the links here. The first is 'Breaking Brainwashed,' a channel run by CDM (Civil Disobedience Movement) soldiers that focuses on reporting and military analysis. The second is 'Nay Myo Zin,' who is active around the Karenni frontline and leads efforts to demoralize frontline outposts, aiming to save soldiers and their families. These channels are in Burmese, but if you need help with translation, please let me know. I believe it's essential to rely on a Burmese perspective because we have found that international experts’ analyses often miss key local insights. For example, the relationship between China and the revolution is frequently misunderstood. Experts overlook the fact that this revolution started as a grassroots movement without a defined leader, and the victories of the EOAs wouldn’t be possible without the support of local communities, especially in terms of information and supplies.

It’s pronounced Mee-Yen-Mar ❤

glad that someone is covering this much overlooked war.

Dude cant even pronounce Myanmar

As a citizen 'we will get democracy back and junta is losing everywhere.Thank you so much for your content and media attention 😊

First

Would love a longer deep dive into what’s been happening in Myanmar over the years

I live in northern Thailand and have seen some of the refugee camps on this side of the border. its a rough life but I can't imagine what they are dealing with on the other side in Myanmar

Yes, please do a deep dive into the history of Myanmar! Keep up the great work!

I would love a longer video on the history of this conflict and the different players. Especially the Karan people.

A more detailed deep-dive into the modern history of Myanmar … please ! 🙏🏽

The former US Ambassador to Myanmar during the coup was my supervisor. Spoke for a bit with him about this, unfortunately, while the Junta will be defeated in all likelihood, the war will likely continue internally between the rebels.