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Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Oh, for sure. In 2016, I took a hit with tech stocks-lost about $70k in just a few weeks because I wasn’t prepared for the regulations that followed the election. But I did make around $85k by shifting into defense stocks, which surged after the election. It was a rollercoaster, but I didn’t have the right strategy going in. things got better when i employed the services of a CFA
Finding financial advisors like ‘Celia Kathleen Martel’ who can assist you would be a creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent money management will be essential to navigating them.
Haha. Well contrarian thinking implies you are going against the majority, independent thinking implies you think deeply for yourself but not necessarily going against majority. Happy to debate it of course :)
This is an incredible podcast episode. I have seen podcasts where people come to discuss their books and ideas. But I don't think I have seen one like this. It is foundational thinking. The guests, the hosts, the subject matter - put together for a great episode so far. More like this, Tim.
What are the most important things you learned from him? And how do these ideas actually apply to real life? I'm genuinely interested as I only really got into taleb's work recently ...
His ideas can be extrapolated to just about any area of life which is partly why he's my favorite author. He taught me mental toughness, meaning and consequences of risk, understanding that the world is largely not comprehensive(and random), skin in the game, and how real learning comes about. This is just a generic list his incerto led me much further into discovery of his influences. And the ideas are quite intuitive and yet counterintuitive, bc he knows real winners must have scar tissue.
@@GermanwithGerry As someone who has really dug into his work in relation to philosophy and complex, dynamical systems, what I'll say is his contributions to the concept of antifragility is very real. Is it at the level of Einstein, that's somewhat of a stretch. I'd place it more around the ballpark of David Graeber's deep dive into Bullsh** jobs, namely very foundational work that's incremental in nature. What you have to understand is Einstein, David, Graeber, etc., are intellectual thinkers. Most importantly, free thinkers. So when we say "so what, what can I do with this," it's coming from most of us who are very far from free. Nassim is part of the top investor class, who he himself has said benefits from lower class (we'll call it further down the antifragility ladder) people failing but still believing it's worth it. If you dig into his work and understand it, he refers to antifragility as what the system is at the expense of individuals being the most fragile. Nassim is at the top of the antifragility class at the expense of the lower, more fragile, class. He knows it, even says it in his books, and tries his best to help however he can knowing this. In essence, he gives very similar (arguably identical) suggestions as Fredrick Niechzte, Stoics, Jasper, maybe Camus to an extent. Even Niechzte said "what doesn't kill me makes me stronger," which is roughly the same as saying you're antifragile. The only difference is he's giving a different reason for the same answers: it's all random, the game is an illusion, so might as well be free. David Graeber's was basically: Majority of the economy is bullsh** and the solution is free thinking people. David and Taleb even mention concepts of UBI in their work, to not Crush people from too much fragility demanded by an antifragile system. Whether you read Nassim, David, Stoics, or Fredrick Niechzte, Camas, etc., they all gave the same final conclusion. The best life is as a free thinker and a free person. That's it.
@@GermanwithGerry As someone who has really dug into his work in relation to philosophy and complex, dynamical systems, what I'll say is his contributions to the concept of antifragility is very real. Is it at the level of Einstein, that's somewhat of a stretch. I'd place it more around the ballpark of David Graeber's deep dive into Bullsh** jobs, namely very foundational work that's incremental in nature. What you have to understand is Einstein, David, Graeber, etc., are intellectual thinkers. Most importantly, free thinkers. So when we say "so what, what can I do with this," it's coming from most of us who are very far from free. Nassim is part of the top investor class, who he himself has said benefits from lower class (we'll call it further down the antifragility ladder) people failing but still believing it's worth it. If you dig into his work and understand it, he refers to antifragility as what the system is at the expense of individuals being the most fragile. Nassim is at the top of the antifragility class at the expense of the lower, more fragile, class. He knows it, even says it in his books, and tries his best to help however he can knowing this. In essence, he gives very similar (arguably identical) suggestions as Fredrick Niechzte, Stoics, Jasper, maybe Camus to an extent. Even Niechzte said "what doesn't kill me makes me stronger," which is roughly the same as saying you're antifragile. The only difference is he's giving a different reason for the same answers: it's all random, the game is an illusion, so might as well be free. David Graeber's was basically: Majority of the economy is bullsh** and the solution is free thinking people. David and Taleb even mention concepts of UBI in their work, to not Crush people from too much fragility demanded by an antifragile system. Whether you read Nassim, David, Stoics, or Fredrick Niechzte, Camas, etc., they all gave the same final conclusion. The best life is as a free thinker and a free person. That's it.
Wow Tim didn't realize you shared so much history with Taleb. I just finished Chaos Kings a couple of days ago, and am now currently waiting on Mark's book Safe Havens. This was a pleasant surprise, as initially when I saw you had tweeted this out, I at first was skeptical because Nassim is very selective on who he interviews with, but I am so surprised and impressed with the level of detail and wisdom Nassim brings to the table as always, as there is never a boring interview or exchange between him. He adds even more depth and background to the story as well after having read the book. Thank you for having him, definitely a memorable and informative interview.
I’m a huge fan of Aquinas myself, Nassim! But sadly, not in the original. Wow. This was such an amazing discussion. Really appreciated the closeness and comraderie of Scott and Nicholas. Almost reading each other’s minds.
Holy cow, I’ve read 4hww and non technical incerto, now TF interviews NNT!!! Edit: takeaway is to focus on my job and the things I’m good at, not get distracted by speculative investing… :)
Key Insights: - Misinformation and conspiracy theories can lead to dangerous consequences, such as the rejection of vaccines. - The precautionary principle encourages the elimination of fragilities before pursuing anti-fragility. - Convexity and scalability are important factors to consider in various fields, including medicine and finance. - Investors should focus on their areas of expertise and avoid unnecessary risks. - The banking sector is relatively safe due to its utility-like nature, while the private equity sector is more fragile. Actionable Items: - Eliminate fragilities and focus on building anti-fragility in one's area of expertise. - Avoid engaging in trades or investments without proper knowledge and understanding. - Stay informed and critically evaluate information to avoid falling victim to misinformation. - Apply the precautionary principle when assessing risks and making decisions. - Consider the potential impact of scalability and convexity in various fields.
"Robustness is when you care more about the few who like your work than the multitude who hates it (artists). Fragility is when you care more about the few who hate your work then the multitude who loves it (politicians)." Great quote. Thanks. What do you call it when someone cares more about the truth than whether or not anyone likes or hates their work? E.g. RFK
He is a brilliant thinker. But maybe he didn't allow himself to think how vast big pharma manipulation and interferences are. Hence took those studies without criticism. Listening to Antifragile - it's infiltrated with "avoid iatrogenics, nature is robust, what humans do is not robust, avoid doctors whenever you can" message. Yet he rationalized mRNA use.
He developed a non-smoking related throat cancer one time in his life and if you know him well he take the identity of an author not a speaker, not a presenter or anything else.
I remember when Tim Ferris said he left Silicon Valley partially because it has the highest proportion of people who think they are smart. higheer interest rates will clear these guys out
Would have been interesting to get Telebs take on the vaccine and covid with the third option of ivermectin being a good safe alternative and also would have been interesting to hear his thoughts on the government completely lying about the origin and funding of the lab etc. Always a great interview anytime you get to hear Teleb talk.
Self evident why it's not the case. McLuhan, the medium is the message. This form caters to a culture of mass illiteracy. 2/3 of the US can't read on a 6th grade level, the average American reads on a 3rd grade level.
I enjoyed the books from Taleb very much. They are quite smart. Unfortunately, his stand on vaccines and the "pandemic" shows that he is well past his peak.
I admire Nasim a lot, enough to set aside his assessment of the Covid “vaccines.” I will certainly be employing the precautionary principle with respect to would be authoritarians the next time they take a bite at the apple.
the only problem with nasim is that it is very hard to understand him, he sometime does not finish his sentence or does not pronounce the words fully. maybe it is just me. anyway very interesting guy
With the MRNA vaccines there was very little testing compared to the norm and they wer given to literally billions in the space of a year. I get it that at the time it might have been a solid decision to use them against the uncertainty being presented by the pandemic itself, but does it really qualify as non-fat-tail?
I respect talebs ideas. I have used them in a few areas of my life. But he was totally wrong on masks and the jabs. He and Ryan holiday are not stoics, despite their use of stoic ideas.
Antifragile is the most misused one, I agree as he said what doesn't kill you makes more stronger but what what kills doesn't make you stronger. To become antifragile you have to remove fragile first. If there is uncertainty with the pilot you don't fly.
Nah he's a triple vaccinated coward who bottled it during covid by taking the poison jabs, blocking all open debate on his Twitter about it too. Now in late 2023, it's overwhelmingly evident he made the wrong decision but he will never admit it, or worse, he's stubborn enough to actually believe he made the right choice. Here's a direct quote from this podcast: "Covid is a lot more dangerous than you think. And the vaccine is what made it tolerable." He actually believes that blatant lie. It was never any deadlier than the common flu and had a 99.9997% survival rate for anyone who wasn't already on death's door. He falls into the unfortunate, disgraceful camp of "I'm so glad I got the vaccine, otherwise it would have been much worse" but doesn't realise any illness he got was because of the vaccine itself.
Tim Ferriss, I knew he would get NNT on his show one day. Ferriss called him cantankerous in naval podcast, but naval and Tim agree how much wisdom NNT has
I'm so disappointed one of my literary hero's talked such nonsense on the vaccine debate, history shows it was an enormous error fuelled by social media and corporate greed
I was wondering about that too. If you still get Covid and add the risk of the vaccine on top you might be worse off, especially if you already had COVID and then got the jab.
28:00 okay this answer makes sense but think about the second order here. Someone has to write the God damn contract. If we flipped a switch and suddenly everyone is looking to buy insurance for a tail event and no one is writing the contract you can't protect yourself. You might ask well if everyone is looking that's demand! Someone will service that demand they might or the price of tail risk insurance will rise to the point that it's not a profitable trade in the long run. Options and futures contracts have two sides they are zero sum for every winner there is a loser. No one has to write(sell) the contract even if everyone wants to buy them.
0:46: 📚 Scott and the other person met in the mid-2000s while Scott was a reporter at the Wall Street Journal and the other person's book was popular among hedge fund managers. 9:56: 📉 Universa provides constant protection for their clients by buying far out of the money put options to bet on a 20% decline in the S&P 500 in one month. 19:52: 📚 The video discusses a paper co-written by Nasim in January 2020 about COVID-19, which served as a warning about the virus and highlighted the need for extreme precautions. 29:12: 📉 The speaker discusses the problem of companies concentrating too much on one supplier in their supply chain, leading to issues when that supplier is affected. 38:33: 📚 The speaker discusses his contrarian nature and the importance of focusing on ideas rather than personal attributes. 48:37: 📚 The speaker discusses the concept of risk mitigation and applying ideas from Wall Street to other forms of risk management. 1:46:06: 📚 Studying options trading can be beneficial even if one never engages in it, as it provides a good understanding of the market. 58:01: 📊 The video discusses the concept of extremistan and fat tails in financial markets. 1:07:31: 🧬 Bill Gates discusses the risks and benefits of GMOs and vaccines. 1:17:04: 🌍 The speaker discusses the complexity of the climate issue and the need to consider non-linearity and convexity when making decisions. 1:26:51: 📈 The interconnectedness of financial markets and electronic trading increases the potential for rapid and widespread damage caused by negligence and bad risk-taking. 1:35:52: 🔥 Multiple small reactors are more dangerous than one large reactor when it comes to blow ups in the banking sector. 1:54:15: 📚 The speaker discusses the law of one price and the concept of arbitrage in relation to pricing. Recap by Tammy AI
Time risk and ensemble risk of mRNA are the same (ergodic) so if you vaccinate 100 million people is equivalent to vaccinating 1 person for 100 million years.
