Neil Howe: Crisis looms as we approach the Fourth Turning 

Nostradamus was a charlatan. So is Howe.

Nostradamus didn’t “predict” a damn thing. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-GoBw19kXqyM.htmlsi=f4Eu7zUxn2XoOfEJ

This shows Mr. Pakman is paying attention to the big picture not just the war/shooting/celebrity faux pas of the week.

I know exactly what you mean. I've seen full grown adult men have meltdowns and temper tantrums over the silliest things in my time in retail/customer service. It was rarely ever Millennials or Silents, but usually Baby Boomers and sometimes Gen Xers. The idea that we're going to start a civil war is laughable in my opinion. 1. It's simply not in our constitution to carry this out. We just don't have it in us. Sorry! People can't even run or walk a mile, let alone expend enormous amounts of energy to march all across the country. We can barely function during a snowstorm when the power goes out and we lose internet. People hoard groceries at the first forecast of snow. We also live in a car dependent society. Take away the oil and you take away peoples' ability to go anywhere. 2. Additionally, there is nothing in particular that they would fight over. There are too many factional ideological skirmishes, what would unify either side? In the Civil war, slavery was a clear division that sparked the war. *I'm not saying there won't be violence such as mass shootings or homicides. I just think these will be individual, isolated, subjective attacks against others. You have entire populations in the South who would call themselves fundamentalist Christians and pro life, but do not support anti abortion laws. They can't even unify over that. How are they going to all agree to start a war with the North? Or neighbor against neighbor? 3. Think about the fact that we barely speak to our neighbors. You have to speak and meet up for a cause. There's just no motivation congregate in order to unify and fight for a cause. There's also no public or communal space for that to occur. If you can't unify, then you can't declare and fight a war. Americans are too isolationist and withdrawn to bother interacting with one another. I think it's more realistic that an external conflict will occur. China has become increasingly militaristic and territorial, not just in regards to Taiwan. There have been many squabbles over islands in the South China Sea (Japan and Philippines in particular) and the border between India. Russia seems fixated on taking Ukraine and many countries in Eastern Europe that it once owned. They have no warm water ports and not having access to that takes away the massive wealth and power they once had as well as access to resources. Then of course there's the conflict with Iran. Have the three of these join together and you have your new axis of power. I do think a Civil War is a possibility in the next Crisis era. It just depends on how willing people are to fight for a singular cause. I don't see the motivation in people today.

I would disagree. 2008 was the result of fiat currency. The ability to print money out of thin air will always beget such crisis.

@@smileygnome7329 Economists' opinions differ on this subject, on which I have no personal opinion.

Many good points raised. In a nutshell, too many things happening at once, including deferred maintenance on our institutions. Humans simply cannot process and respond to such an onslaught. Advanced AI might help, quantum computing and optimization programs. We have proven that humans cannot operate in good faith. Time for the machines to have a crack at it. Hopefully they won't kill us all to make more paper clips.

Don't forget that regulatory agencies often use input from the industry leaders they are in charge of regulating. As an example, Bernie Madoff got away with vast criminal activity right in front of the SEC due to the prestige he had on Wall Street. The SEC was warned multiple times and provided detailed analysis by 3rd parties and they claim they missed it because they were underfunded. Regulations existed to catch him but were ineffective due to this unholy union.

@hwi6913: you speak volumes of truth. I’m on the cusp of the Boomer and Generation X. I don’t identify with Boomers, who I’ve come to see as a selfish, greedy, whar loving generation. They are the ultimate me generation. I speak observing and interacting with the Boomer generation as a whole. Under the Boomers, this mess was created. Generation X and Millennials will equal the wealth. All the debt and misery the Boomers are passing onto the rest of the generations is going to be eliminated. Fact.

Right!

If you had read his book you would have had an explanation of the possibility you point out. In short, yes, it is a self-fulfilling prophesy based not on people following trends but based on the very predictable behaviour of humans. Read the book, though - it will explain the notion far better and in more depth than I can.

Human nature is extremely predictable, including not learning from history.

Howe is a fraud. Intellectually bereft and lacking honesty. History isn’t a bunch of “turnings”. It’s as dumb and inaccurate as anything Nostradamus did. And then at the end you know what he’s concerned about? Money. Not humans. He’s disgusting.

Agreed. The Strauss-Howe generational theory has always been a crock of shit. It's the epitome of that braindead quote "Hard times make strong men, strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times". You can never actually cleanly define which part of a century is in which part of the 4 Turnings cycle. You can bullshit your way into explaining how a certain period can fit every part of the 4 part generational cycle. It's also extremely subjective to the point of uselessness. In Charleston 1820, a slave owner's good time is their slave's hard time. The Strauss-Howe generational theory is a crock of shit. It's about as accurate as astrology, because one can make up whatever BS meaning they want to with it. It's all idealism with no basis in material analysis.

@@ajiththomas2465the scary part is that there are movements, particular white nationalists, fascists, alt-right authoritarians who consider these cycles as something they wish to precipitate by enacting chaos to usher in a “Kali Yuga” which will prop up their “superior race”.

@@ajiththomas2465wow can’t wait to read your book Einstein

It’s hokum. “Look, I’ll make overly broad assertions and then cherry pick over items to only bolster my grift.“ 🤮

By your comment, it's clear you haven't even read his books. Because if you had, you'd know that they are not "deterministic", but based on historical analysis of cyclical repeating generational trends over what is a long human lifetime, known as a "saeculum". In his recent book, he goes back several hundred years to track how these four turnings have manifested; it's as much a deep dive into history as it is a discussion as to the possible outcomes of the end of this current Crisis that we are in.

@@sonyaj66 “Cycling” is definitionally deterministic you 5 watt bulb.

@@brianmccollaum5489 Right...🙄. So, tracking cyclical patterns through history is "deterministic"? I'm not the one pushing 5 watts here, buddy, and if you haven't read the books, your thoughts and opinions are kind of irrelevant. Maybe try looking up the definition of "deterministic" while you're at it 🤡.

@@sonyaj66You explained his theory very well and after reading his book, “The Fourth Turning” I agree we are right on target. Prepare and people that don’t have been warned

We mostly only have the illusion of having a say.

Worse that that how many of us really know what we are choosing if we and how it affects the world we live in. @@richardharris8538

@@richardharris8538Seriously? Flights are cheap to Russia, N. Korea, Turkey, Byelorussia....Live over there and let me know if anything's changes since I served in Europe.

When J.P.Morgan died , he left a fortune of about $30 million. John D. Rockefeller. America's first billionaire, remarked on the marvel of his influence despite his being so poor a man. My point: it's the person, not the money. Owning just a few railroads may secure your importance for, say, transportation.

​@@Yourdeadmeat69pointing at the guy next to you that's on Fire doesn't mean the fact that you got stabbed in the gut is a good thing. Just because someone else that has it worse doesn't mean that we don't have it bad

I’d rather have him online letting us know what’s going on

@@jessicabradshaw3365😂

​@@jessicabradshaw3365 he fits perfect with the delusional democrats in government. Let's fit everything by throwing money at it. Let print money until they break the government. Free everything for power. David loves to criticize the other side but never look in the mirror. It would be a pleasure to be on the same side (Americans) against all corrupt politians in government. Mainstream and David protect democrat like harris who knowingly passed policies that negatively effected Americans, and should be called out... Trump is the evil one when Americans are suffering more now than 4 years ago. Don't believe your wallet and budget.

Howe the huckster.

@@brianmccollaum5489😂

Didn't he work in the financial industry or something in the past?

We will all die,so things are ok!

Yeah 😅

Agreed. The Strauss-Howe generational theory has always been a crock of shit. It's the epitome of that braindead quote "Hard times make strong men, strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times". You can never actually cleanly define which part of a century is in which part of the 4 Turnings cycle. You can bullshit your way into explaining how a certain period can fit every part of the 4 part generational cycle. It's also extremely subjective to the point of uselessness. In Charleston 1820, a slave owner's good time is their slave's hard time. The Strauss-Howe generational theory is a crock of shit. It's about as accurate as astrology, because one can make up whatever BS meaning they want to with it.

@@ajiththomas2465 yes that quote is exactly what it reminded me of. It really is basically the same theory. Prosperity leads to complacency which leads to a decline and then a crisis which leads to boot straps being pulled and prosperity comes again. The astrology comparison is very apt. I think some people find some comfort in the idea that history is a predictable cycle that repeats ad infinitum. I’m happy to see that a decent amount of people in Pakman’s audience aren’t gobbling up this bullshit uncritically.

Thank-you for this name drop. I am desperate to understand economic thinking: Biologist, "as you can see from my graph there is a 50/50 chance that humans will be extinct in the very near future". Economist, "going extinct is a bad idea as that would ruin my portfolio".

@@dyslexictroll8708 😂 I feel you

Libertarian Millennial? Or Communitarian Gen Xer?

Good one!

Nothing sinister or dramatic about it. It's laid out as history is cyclical, there's for quarters to it Like four pages of a book Hence the fourth turning as you go into the fourth page lol

@@BlueRidgeBubbleThat was….a particularly unintelligent post on your part.🤣🤣🤣🤣

That’s what the trumpers want you to think

So, you’re saying the election was stolen and poor trump is being unfairly attacked by Biden? Right-o

So he said the exact thing you just said here,but when he says it it's "whining"?!

Your democrat politicians play a big part in this society of delusional individuals. What used to be a mental illness now is acceptable and pushed to be the norm. Society needs guide lines to function, and democrats pushing their narratives have given into insanity. Society lost how they manage facts cause feelings are more important. Feelings have no meaning if we're unable to progress with true as a society. Harris is a perfect example of democrat delusions. She makes promises of coming changes when she already VP of 4 yrs. with biden. Giving free money to win votes when Americans will feel the burden of repaying. Also, clean up her mess of 4 yrs. on the border issues. She reminds you of the hardship she helped put Americans with living cost to now promise to low if elected. She has no clue or policy on economics to do it. Where was she when democrats were sending billions around the world ? Look at your household budget now cause it's only going to get worse if harris win. Trump 2024 !!!

It is part of something called generational theory. His book is called The Fourth Turning Is Here. It's the sequel to a book called Generations that he and a man named Strauss wrote 25 years ago that predicted a lot of societal change that has come to pass.

You need spice? Who are you liking these days?

Finally realizing he is a corporate mouthpiece? Congrats. Many other youtube personalities in the same boat. Kyle K, Young Turks, Tucker Carlson, ect ect. Corporate moved into non traditional mediums quite some time ago when they saw the TV ratings for the nightly news tanking.

Unless you don't have family.. Then what???😢

Lol utterly ridiculous.

Why because unlike you he can think for himself?

@@eldenlion5850 He actually says democracy doesnt cut it anymore...so paving the way for MAGA. Hey I'm Dutch.. I'm just asking questions or is that not allowed? Seems autoritarian attitude.

@@Djang221hard to take you seriously is all. I didn’t read the book(s).

@@Hadenufyet giving up on democracy is like watching someone get beat up/abused/raped and do nothing, let it happen. Which seems actually happening right now in America. Democracy is not necessarily the ultimate solution but the alternatives at the moment seem horrible.

What point do comments like this accomplish? I heard this okay enough to understand the conversation

Shorter: “Blah, babble, blah. Buy my book.”

​@brianmccollaum5489 That quote is quite a succinct description of the Republican philosophy, even better than the quote about being doomed to repeat history. You mock the idea that expresses the tragedy of our times. It's what future survivors will curse Republicans for.

Those that ignore the paths of history are destined to repeat them. I’ve read The Fourth Turning and about to read ‘The Fourth Turning is Here.’’ As a Bible historian, Bible prophecy predicts many of the events corresponding with facts and timelines in The Turning.

We are definitely in the 4th turning because I hate this beta male lib host

They are suffering from severe cognitive distortion. Different president = COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF USA. 🙄🤪

Well said

If democracy is important, the labor however significant should be well done. It's laboring force should be as competent as possible, and the laborer - as it says in the Bible- is worthy of his hire (the wages). Exactly how he/she is paid is indifferent, but being too sharp about it is usually a bad idea

"of the people" means coming from their constituency. The problem we have is they are not "for the people" they are for themselves. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Ted Cruz of Texas are two examples.

I half agree. The Democratic party sucks it's just that the Republicans are worse!

Agree!!!

You're speaking about reality. As much as I like Pakman's channel, it doesn't deal in true reality. "Capitalism is good. The Dems are good. The threat is the GOP......blah blah blah" After Wolfe, read Chris Hedges. The decline isn't an accident. Its managed in order to funnel wealth from bottom to top.

Yea this is mostly woo woo cherry picked nonsense. There is no mention of material conditions. It’s strictly an idealistic reading of history. People should read Peter Zeihan if they want a more empirical, less woo woo reading of historical trends.

You're right about income inequality driving a lot, but nations can't just ignore exponentially increasing debt either.

@@xcfjdyrkdtulkgfilhu agreed but the way to address debt like that is by taxing the uber wealthy. This has the effect of both reducing debt and avoiding a default whilst simultaneously reducing income inequality. We got rid of monarchs because we didn’t like that kind of unaccountable concentration of wealth. Now we just get rid of multi billionaires for the same reason. It won’t be enough to simply tax income either. They have to be taxed on existing wealth including stock holdings, real estate, art, shell companies, foreign bank accounts, and every other way they seek to hide their wealth. If they want to stop doing business here or living here then good riddance. It will open up the market to people who will not hoard their wealth and great such inequality.

We do not have capitalism in the United States. You got the government bailing out certain companies/sectors. If we had a capitalist economy then they would die out and new ones emerge to take their place.

Insecure teen boys who get bad grades in school and crush on the likes of Andrew Tate are always so obvious.

Funny? No

No. I find him a “d” followed by “umb”.

I understood him. Maybe because I can also read.

Agreed. Howe the huckster.

Inflation is increased M2 money supply followed by loosening of credit. Your corporate greed argument is nonsense which is simply a symptom of over government spending

@@skybrick1036 that's right Joseph doesn't know what he is talking about, inflation = increase in the money supply, increase in the cost of living is a consequence of that.

Not gonna happen