New Fortress Energy: The Best Idea No One Is Talking About?

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Tech-type revenue growth selling an essential good backed by fixed assets worth billions.
This is my latest high-conviction investment.
From Billions in CapEx to Thriving Earnings: Unveiling New Fortress Energy's Fully Integrated Solution. In this video I delve into the remarkable journey of converting massive capital investments into lucrative earnings. Explore how this utility-type business model, coupled with a potential boost from rising natural gas prices, forms a dynamic, fully integrated energy solution.
Full credit to ‪@jhfmackay‬ for bringing this to my attention
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Опубликовано:

2 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 35

@scottvernier8307 Месяц назад

Would like to hear your thoughts after the hits this stock has taken, not only since you posted this video, but in particular after this week’s earnings. (It has more than lost half it’s value since)

@theROIpodcast Месяц назад

I've just sent out an update on my substack (free access). One small note, it's price has halved, not its value.

@GordonGekko98 Год назад

Doing a deeper dive into the company after watching this video and it seems like a winner. 40% of ebita will go to dividends, so with 2.5 billion in ebita thats a 1 billion dividend. At current prices thats over a 17% dividend on a company with 15-20 year long term contracts and still building new facilities. Also seeing that they target 20% ROIC and are going for areas with zero competion in the Caribbean and central America, i like the long term prospects of this business. Added to the watch list, maybe ill sell some puts on it

@theROIpodcast Год назад

pretty much sums up my sentiments. Be sure to watch my discussion with Chapman Scarborough which I'll be uploading over the next few days. We discuss in depth

@gregmartin2455 Месяц назад

It took a serious beating today. Missed earnings on delay in the Seaborne LNG facility. But it seems a bit excessive of a drop.

@DM-ve8vb Месяц назад

Delay in deployment of FLNG-1 hurt revenues. With all capex now behind them here, revenue will normalize next quarter. The conference call must be heard to understand fully the future potential of cash flow and debt reduction. NFE is an awesome company.

@deanlamb28 3 месяца назад

Could we have an update on New Fortress please?

@theROIpodcast 3 месяца назад

I can find no news to support the recent price drop, I estimate it currently trades at less than 10x eps with massive discount to replacement value and huge upside with earnings growth. The co should be process 1BCF/d of gas in 12-18 months. provided bal sheet doesn't come under pressure I see opportunity longer term

@marshman1787 2 месяца назад

@@theROIpodcast The project in Ireland fell through because the Green party who are in government blocked it. They said they gas stored in the terminal could not be guaranteed not to have been fracked. These idiots hopefully will be out of office next election, so that could change. Its a disaster for Ireland as we now have no independent LNG storage facility. Did not make much difference to the share price of New Fortress at the time.

@AugustoIacobucci 2 дня назад

Could you update this video?

@miket2916 Месяц назад

Is etoro up to date? You and another person I 'follow' do not seem to have updated portfolios?

@feedbackolymp546 Месяц назад

I made my last buy in New Fortress Energy today. Every investment has a five year chance to rise. We will see :). Greetings from Bavaria

@JaroslavGolubev Год назад

I’m looking to get into investing, and I’m starting off with quite a small sum of money. How can I join please?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

Invest in your ability to generate profits for yourself brother, then check out the link in the description if you want to copy my portfolio as you start building up your capital base.

@gauravbudhrani6732 Год назад

The $240 million capex guide seems a bit misleading tbh. Management still needs to fund ~$1.2bn of capex for FLNG 2 and 3 (grossing up the 35% from their earnings call). The capex will be funded with new debt in 24 bringing the total debt to ~$6.6bn. Wonder why is the management being cheeky about it! Overall it still looks relatively attractive on r/r. Can be said about many energy stocks tbh. Wouldn't be surprised if stock continues to trade sideways for a while - 1) concentrated ownership+ 2) energy funds seem to be chasing capital returns over high growth / capex intensive businesses.

@theROIpodcast Год назад

I agree it seems overly simplistic. As I starting point I have to fiddle with their numbers and see how it fits. I think the increased volume and associated rev could offset a lot of it, in any case it simply delays the inflection until the FLNG 2,3 come online. Unless management changes strategy the thesis holds. I see that as an opportunity because if you're in the sector you believe in a more prolonged bull market ergo you want those who have large capacity/low declines. At the end of the day I'm sure Wes is incentivise for the stock price to rise given how much he owns.

@biscaynediver Месяц назад

You've skipped right past the rolling of the debt maturing in '25 and '26. And no look at how the bond market is pricing the existing bonds. The bond market is telling you there's a non-trivial chance they have trouble rolling the debt, or get forced to roll on highly unfavorable terms.

@biscaynediver Месяц назад

Presume you have seen the reaction to the quarterly earnings call -- the company glossed over the debt issues, as the stock is getting smashed. Perfunctorily walked through a summary of debt with the assumption it would be no problem. Market says otherwise. The CEO is tone-deaf and the management team has been, frankly, irresponsible in how it's managed the debt.

@DanielOgden-n8y Год назад

How are you dealing with the 10% withholding tax on PTP securities for non US residents? Certain brokerage accounts won’t let you buy the stock as they don’t want to deal with it. If there is a tax on holding the company for a non US resident do you take that into account in your forecasting?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

Use a decent broker. No I do not, I leave tax considerations up to the individual.

@benbover5879 Год назад

Have you checked out any other names in this sector?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

Cheniere would be the closest

@benbover5879 Год назад

@@theROIpodcast no smaller market cap names? CLCO?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

@@benbover5879 not in this sector - One area where I want a decent size Co. with scale

@benbover5879 Год назад

Who is James Mckay?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

check twitter

@benbover5879 Год назад

Thanks Ben. Are you Ben D in Crux investor?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

@@benbover5879 No Bro

@duplessisleroy Год назад

Potential dumb question alert! You mentioned in the video that if we see a run in gas prices it could benefit NFE. They obviously build and run the terminals and distribution. Do they also produce gas? How does a higher price benefit them?

@theROIpodcast Год назад

No good question - be sure to watch my next podcast with Chapman Scarborough where we discuss this very question. Basically pricing power is the answer but, the big one is an arbitrage between HH and Europe (TTF) for me. The co. stands to make an ENORMOUS spread

@duplessisleroy Год назад

@@theROIpodcast reading a bit more. So the don't produce gas but they are in a position to buy cheap US gas and sell it into European and other markets to take advantage of the delta between the two markets? I guess that's what you were saying. Looking forward to the video.

@theROIpodcast Год назад

Más o menos sí... they get cheap access to cheap gas - see the vid I just uploaded.@@duplessisleroy